Nocturnal Fund Performance Thread

2008 Year-to-Date Returns (as of January 26 2008)
January 1 2008
http://www.freewebs.com/nocturnalfund/jan1-2008.bmp
As of January 26 2008
http://www.freewebs.com/nocturnalfund/jan26-2008.bmp
Small Fund: n/a *
Medium Fund: n/a *
Large Fund A: +17.44% change from last 2 weeks: +7.83%
Large Fund B: +1.28% change from last 2 weeks: +0.99%


Market Indexes Year-to-Date Returns (as of January 26 2008)
S&P 500 Index: -9.38%
Currency Traders Index: +2.44%
BTOP FX Index: -1.35%

First quarter performance report will be available in April 2008

*Funds not active

I've been getting inquiries about whether or not I trade the same system in Large Fund A and Large Fund B.

The answer: Yes I do. Some markets happen to perform very well, while others are more 'ranging'. But from my experience, when some markets start to slow down (become less trendy), the others will pick up the pace.\

So overtime the two funds would have similar returns.

Ok, good night!

What is the risk each month? A 50% drawdown possible? How about 80%?

I only risk 0.5% for each entry for maximum of 2% risk. I've been trading this a little over a year and the worst drawdown I've had is around 10%.

Then again, 50%, 80% or 100% drawdown is always possible

I like to keep it real!

Well done Hilmy!!!!
Congratulation on your good start!!

best regards

Matty

merci beaucoup

January return for active funds are up.

Large Fund A
January: +16.47%

Large Fund B
January: +0.59%

Prior to this I had based my performance on closed P/L. But now I will base it on closed Net Asset Value (NAV). NAV is a more accurate picture of the accounts since it is what it would be if all positions were to be liquidated.

February 2008 returns (as of February 15 2008)
February 1 2008 ***
Large Fund A: Closing NAV $6288.50
Large Fund B: Closing NAV $4590.14
As of February 15 2008 ****

http://www.freewebs.com/nocturnalfund/feb15-2008.jpg
Small Fund: n/a **
Medium Fund: n/a **
Large Fund A: +0.47% change from last 2 weeks: N/A
Large Fund B: -4.72%change from last 2 weeks: N/A


Market Indexes Year-to-Date Returns (as of February 15 2008)
S&P 500 Index: -8.14%
Currency Traders Index: +0.39%
BTOP FX Index: -1.27%

All returns are based on Net Asset Value (NAV)

** Funds not active
*** Pic not available. Use end of January 31st NAV (including deposits in January) for February 1st start point
**** All deposits made in February are not counted towards return calculations

So there's few things that needed to be shared regarding the funds:
1. Return analysis changed to realized P/L and VAMI
I have decided to revert back to realized P/L when doing return/drawdown analysis. The reason being is that NAV takes into account interest which I don't do in my own accounts. So to keep things standard and easy, I just use realized P/L given. This is money made exlusive of interest.
I also started tracking my performance using Value Added Monthly Index (VAMI). It's a method that tracks a hypothetical $1000 investment based on my monthly returns. Again, this is also based on realized P/L.
There are several ways to track your investment return. Important thing is to keep it consistent (which I promise I will start doing!). The NAV return vs realized P/L analysis should only differ by few points in the long run.

2. New money management technique
If you have your accounts with me, you probably notice that I didn't take much trades the last 2 weeks of February (sorry we missed out on the Euro flight! although we did close that one for little profits). The reason being is that I took off to test out a money management idea to see how it affects my results overall. I wanted to see how my idea will fare during most ranging (sideways) market conditions. I used Forex Tester (http://www.forextester.com) for this work. I tested (and continuing testing) few currency pairs over period of 3-4 years. But the results from few currency pairs that have historical ranging condition (like USDJPY, EURGBP) improved vs current money management, so I will start implementing the idea from now on and will resume trading this month.

I will share with you the results with comparisons once all the work is done.

That's all the new things that have been going on. By the way, the new February return is up.

Large Fund A (VAMI YTD +12.90% as of Mar 1 2008)

Large Fund B (VAMI YTD -2.77% as of Mar 1 2008)

Market Indexes Year-to-Date Returns (as of February 29 2008)
S&P 500 Index: -9.38%
Currency Traders Index: -0.22%
BTOP FX Index: +1.05%

I think the best way to trade is to incorporate fundamentals with technicals. Using fundamental to determine trend and techincals for entry/exiting trades.

But fundamentals for forex is so confusing to me. Unlike stocks, you have to analyze more than just the value of that currency, You have to incorporate that country's whole economic and political structure. Not only that, you have to do this for the quote currency as well and see how they affect each other.

Since traditional fundamental analysis is to me quite daunting, I think it's best to use a higher timeframe to gauge the 'fundamental' trend. I trade on the daily so the monthly chart is my fundamental trend.

I think fundamentals always take a while to play itself in the market anyway, so a monthly chart is good fundamental trend for daily traders. If you day trade (4hr or less) I would use the weekly chart for your fundamental trend.BAsically take two timeframes higher than you trade timeframe for the trend, minimum Daily for trend. I don't consider intraday chart a good fundamental trend even if it's two timeframes higher.

I use fractal indicator as support and resistance on the monthly. If it's broken, then the trend change and I assume the fundamentals have changed as well.

Though this is NOT a perfect way to do fundamental analysis, I think it's a good substitute for someone who is clueless to the economics side of trading. The best thing to do is to trade in the direction of the preceived trend and make the MOST out of it (i.e win big), so your losses in the future is overshadowed by your winners. I incorporate position trading in the trend and also aggresive swings when it corrects.

Just to illustrate. Below is daily chart determined by monthly fractals. It's a pretty good in gauging fundamentals the technical way. The vertical line is the point where the trend actually changed

I thought I'll turn this into a trade journal.That would make more sense than just posting results. I'm only going to analyze the EURUSD, though I trade other currencies using the same system


So, I missed the Euro long trade. Pretty dumb. Waiting PATIENTLY for the bounce off weekly support shown (green area) to initate longs.

If weekly close below this area, my trend will change to short on the EURUSD.


Weekly



Daily

Oh hell, just cause I'm bored, I'll include ALL trades taken.


long EURJPY @ 158.58 S/L 155.50

long CADJPY @ 103.95 S/L 101.50

Short EURAUD @ 1.6640 S/L 1.6800

That one is working out nicely after the Aussie news

yes indeed. Hopefully the move will be down for a few days, otherwise i'll just come up breakeven or a loss.

Nice goin' here Hilmy.
We should chat again. I've finished that cert in Islamic finance I mentioned a while ago. Interesting stuff to say the least! I appreciate the link to those pdf's you gave me, specially the one by Dr. Mohammed Obaidullah.

Also, I've just noticed my vouch for you has gone AWOL for some reason...

Will rectify asap.

man, you beat me to finishing the course. I'll wait for the GBPUSD rate to go down to 1.4000 level so i can afford it or just trade till i can afford it

1.4000!! We'll both be old-men by then I think

Stopped out LONG CADJPY @ 101.50 -2.04%

LONG AUDJPY @ 9534 S/L 92.50

EURAUD S/L 1.6640 (b/e)