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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #64,301
  • Mar 1, 2008 11:07pm Mar 1, 2008 11:07pm
Could anyone tell me why swaps which have accumulated are now diminishing on various trades- so by the time i should cash in my trades when out of the red there may be nothing left --- whilst the other way around when i pay swaps they keep cashing in and in and in.......
I actually understand the latter but when i take a trade and it is a positive swap trade and i put that trade in the red -- i cannot use that money to enter other trades and i go without -why would those trades in the last week diminish the swaps could anyone pls tell me?
  • #64,302
  • Mar 1, 2008 11:31pm Mar 1, 2008 11:31pm
Quoting kujo17
Hope everyone had a KILLER week.

I will be gone most, if not all of next week.
We're having Twin girls.
My wife is being induced tomorrow evening if she doesn't get into labor on her own by then.

So, I wish a good week to all

See you on the 10th.

Maybe things will have settled by then.....

Cheers,

kj
Congrats man, I have twins also ( 1 boy and 1 girl)

I'M DONE BA-BY!!!!!

Anyway, good luck, I got mine on 12 hour sleeping time (8pm-8am) within 4 months!!!:surprised

HOLLA
  • #64,303
  • Mar 2, 2008 1:33am Mar 2, 2008 1:33am
Quoting malcolmb14
Double bottoms and tops can be seen on any time frame . lets call is a double test for sake of arguement.

You might have entered the long to early. Sometimes it is safer to wait for the confirmation of the entry on a smaller time frame.

The 5 min showed a classic 1-2-3 sell trigger (high , low , lower high). it then proceeded to break the bear flag.

The safer long entry would be if the '3' high of 207.4 was broken to the upside indicating a higher high on the 5 min is in place and a possible retracement is in place.

Targets for the 1-2-3 sell are
206.1 (50%)
205.8 (61.8%)
205.36 (78.6) if this is broken go to 161.8% fib
204.82 (100%)
204.13 (127%)
203.24 (161.8%)
200.68 (261.8%

If in fact the close on Friday was another low point then we have a 1-2-3 buy trigger 205,8 =1 , 207.4 = 2 , 206.2 = 3

The fib extension 78.6 of the 1-2-3 buy trigger would be 207.54 (the previous high and test of the bottom of the main linear regression channel). If it breaks here then 161.8% is 208.53 ( the top of the main channel) .


Not to freak you out we might get a bounce on the double bottom as all my rsi is very oversold on multiple time frames , however wouldn't that just be to easy for the bulls ?

Here is the 5 min. Those are just simple 2sd linear regression channels plotted to show trend on 5 min charts.

All of this analysis is done using price and trend lines ( the LR channels).

Attachment

Malcolmb appreciate your response. I've got to stop pr-empting the market. Its been my downfall lately.

Thanks again

D.
where thought goes energy flows
  • #64,304
  • Mar 2, 2008 4:10am Mar 2, 2008 4:10am
if we have attention to weekly candle , we see most weekly candles have long lower wick . why?? i see GJ below 200 . maybe we see a small retracement until 208
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,305
  • Mar 2, 2008 6:19am Mar 2, 2008 6:19am
there have been 3 previous nose dives since the 250 area where the weekly pennants have brokeout to the downside. The first time it happened there was some indecision for the next 2 weeks and then the bottom dropped. the next 2 times it seems ther was roughly a 30% retracement and then the bottom dropped. At the same time I also noticed this last weekly candle that broke the pennant is smaller than the previous ones which could indicate that there is more downside before the retacement. Any comments would be welcome and much appreciated.

P.S. CONGRATS TO KUJO!
  • #64,306
  • Mar 2, 2008 6:47am Mar 2, 2008 6:47am
Quoting Dmac
there have been 3 previous nose dives since the 250 area where the weekly pennants have brokeout to the downside. The first time it happened there was some indecision for the next 2 weeks and then the bottom dropped. the next 2 times it seems ther was roughly a 30% retracement and then the bottom dropped. At the same time I also noticed this last weekly candle that broke the pennant is smaller than the previous ones which could indicate that there is more downside before the retacement. Any comments would be welcome and much appreciated.

P.S. CONGRATS TO KUJO!
I fully agree with your anal y sis.
  • #64,307
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:12am Mar 2, 2008 7:12am
Quoting Scrat
here's what i have right now, it's zup75 - it's pretty much the same as the last version.
all the indicators in the archive must be placed into MT indicators folder. only then place zup on your chart and check "allow dll imports" box, otherwise it won't work.
also, there's a template with my settings inside the archive.
and a chart, just as an example. i put an arrow to show how zup identified the place where the down move started... it's that little square.
have fun with it.
Thank you for sharing my friend.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #64,308
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:24am Mar 2, 2008 7:24am
Quoting malcolmb14
Although the analysis of scrat is somewhat correct .. there is also correlation between bonds , oil futures , usd and markets.

I touched on these in another posting.

USDJPY is a carry trade. Net longs like it as they get the interest rate differential. In times when there is risk aversion in the markets money will be moved out of the carry trades and into safer investments like gold and 10 year T- bonds.

The feds lowering interest rates keeps the yield curve nice and steep as they control the short term rates and the lower end of the Yield curve. The feds lowering rates really has little to do with propping up the markets and more to do with keeping the yield curve steep. If this becomes flatter banks profits will suffer as the differential at which they can borrow money and lend money will be less. The curve has to stay steep for now so that they can make the money back from the write downs they are going suffer. By the way the overall credit write are reported to be 600 billion , so far they have only annouced 160 billion.

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/ec...06/el0609.html

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.c...=A1ARTA0005380

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/29/mark...ion=2008022910

Make for a good read on bonds. The last site is a note of how the treasuries advance as markets drop.
Hi malcolmb14, the links you sent were full of new information and very useful. I like your comments and analysis and I'm learning from you. I'm following your thoughts and analysis since you joined this thread.

I really appreciate it.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #64,309
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:03am Mar 2, 2008 11:03am
Quoting Scrat
here's what i have right now, it's zup75 - it's pretty much the same as the last version.
all the indicators in the archive must be placed into MT indicators folder. only then place zup on your chart and check "allow dll imports" box, otherwise it won't work.
also, there's a template with my settings inside the archive.
and a chart, just as an example. i put an arrow to show how zup identified the place where the down move started... it's that little square.
have fun with it.
Zup has a lot of inidcators into one. How do I enable the little diamonds you have on the chart?
  • #64,310
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:39am Mar 2, 2008 11:39am
Quoting charlinks
Zup has a lot of inidcators into one. How do I enable the little diamonds you have on the chart?
One way is to use the template provided in the zip file.

Thanks Scrat for your template...I'm gonna follow it to see if I can get those diamond/boxes to signal entries that the previous high or low has been made.
  • #64,311
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:24pm Mar 2, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting PipsTrend
My Opinion: I guess daily is tryin'a play some EW on us.... Leg 4 completed...

We are in for Leg 5.

Cheers! Happy PImPing next week and good nite

http://www.alkaspace.com/free/spit_i...a1e19d29619c01
This is one of the best charts I've seen in awhile. . . Very simplistic!
  • #64,312
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:39pm Mar 2, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting quecee5
This is one of the best charts I've seen in awhile. . . Very simplistic!

The only one thing wrong with this, is that the way I understand EW theory is that it sis 3 waves down and 5 waves up
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #64,313
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:45pm Mar 2, 2008 12:45pm
hi all , dear quecee5 what is your point of view about GJ b4 fall below 200 ,whether we will see a retracement above 207.90 .thanks 4 coop
  • #64,314
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:53pm Mar 2, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting malcolmb14
The only one thing wrong with this, is that the way I understand EW theory is that it sis 3 waves down and 5 waves up
Turn GBP/JPY to JPY/GBP then - there you got your 5 waves up.
  • #64,315
  • Mar 2, 2008 1:04pm Mar 2, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting ps3ud0nym
Turn GBP/JPY to JPY/GBP then - there you got your 5 waves up.

We are still wave 3....and this has yet to complete.

Note eurjpy is about to start wave three down ..this is the most powerful wave.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #64,316
  • Mar 2, 2008 1:42pm Mar 2, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting malcolmb14
The only one thing wrong with this, is that the way I understand EW theory is that it sis 3 waves down and 5 waves up

Not sure about that one bro. . .
According to EW Impulse or Motive waves are always 5 waves and tend to go in the direction of the bigger trend (which in GJ's case in down). Now there could be a 3 wave correction which is counter trend to the larger trend that could be sideways (which appears to be what GJ is in), zigzag, double zig-zag, etc. . .

Anyway, don't take my word - enclosed is some reading material for u!

Cheers!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Elite Trader Seccrets - Refined Elliott Wave.pdf   578 KB | 521 downloads
  • #64,317
  • Edited 5:01pm Mar 2, 2008 2:10pm | Edited 5:01pm
for free
experts
http://meta-trader.mega-project.biz/free_experts.htm
indicators
http://meta-trader.mega-project.biz/free_indicators.htm

ZUP77
------
http://www.tradingrooms.com/chartpos...2008221446.png
http://www.tradingrooms.com/chartpos...2200823138.png
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip ZUP77.zip   76 KB | 481 downloads
  • #64,318
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:22pm Mar 2, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting hussin naiji
hi all , dear quecee5 what is your point of view about GJ b4 fall below 200 ,whether we will see a retracement above 207.90 .thanks 4 coop
Here are my thoughts;

GJ has broken the uptrend and is heading down. . . A break of lower support at 204.40's/90's then it will be headed for major support around the 203.50 area. . . Here you have daily/weekly/monthly support at 203.57/203.63/203.47 respectively. . . If price breaks down through there then say hello to 200. . . where u have weekly and monthly support z@ 200.97/200.63. . .

Now shorter-term, price could head back to test daily pivot at 207.31, a break above here would see 208.68 which is tough resistance b/c's you have a confluence of resistance @ daily/weekly and monthly @ 208.68/208.60/208.71. . . A break above here then 211 area will be next major resistance. . .

However looking at a daily chart price appears to have plenty of room to move down. . . Like others have stated, I propose to sell any failed rallies oppose to going long. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,319
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:44pm Mar 2, 2008 2:44pm
dear quecee5
thanks 4 coop & have a nice trade 4 u this week
  • #64,320
  • Mar 2, 2008 3:08pm Mar 2, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting quecee5
Here are my thoughts;

GJ has broken the uptrend and is heading down. . . A break of lower support at 204.40's/90's then it will be headed for major support around the 203.50 area. . . Here you have daily/weekly/monthly support at 203.57/203.63/203.47 respectively. . . If price breaks down through there then say hello to 200. . . where u have weekly and monthly support z@ 200.97/200.63. . .

Now shorter-term, price could head back to test daily pivot at 207.31, a break above here would see 208.68 which is tough resistance b/c's you have a confluence of resistance @ daily/weekly and monthly @ 208.68/208.60/208.71. . . A break above here then 211 area will be next major resistance. . .

However looking at a daily chart price appears to have plenty of room to move down. . . Like others have stated, I propose to sell any failed rallies oppose to going long. . .
I'm with you q, if GJ retraces back up, I don't see any higher than 208.80.
I think the major downtrend has begun and we will see 200 area sooner than expected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
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