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  • #3,221
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:12pm Feb 29, 2008 2:12pm
Hi Alpiner,

As I don't trade EURJPY I can't give you first hand experience but let's take look at the daily charts.

Since the turn of the year, we have a high of 162.30 and a low of 152.18, a nice 1000 pip range and during that time you'd have been able to bank a lot of pips. With today's move we are now towards the middle of the range again.

The trick is not to have more than one or two positions at the extreme of the range because at some point the price will break through. You say you've only been doing this 4 days so as you say it is very very early days.

If you look back to 25th January, price consolidated at this point for over a week and we are just appoaching this area again. It may well take a breather here but all you can do is make pips wherever the price decides to go.

I'm wondering why you didn't take any trades today - especially if you had trades closed out as you say. To give you an idea of the amount of trades I've taken in the last 4 months....

November 165 trades
December 43 trades
January 118 trades
February 41 trades

The method certainly won't be for everyone - it takes a very different mindset to most 'systems' out there and also extreme discipline. It works for me but how much of that is 'me' I really don't know

Best of luck - test a few things out and please, please don't just jump from one system to another. Over time you'll get to know yourself and which type of method you are comfortble with. It may be far removed from how I trade - who knows?

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting alpiner
as i expected things getting more tougher later, especialy now with the big drawdown on the euro-yen. the fundamental question: are we in a longer up or downtrend is realy hard to answer. all my shorts that i worry about in my last post got hit their targets. so now my longs are my new problemchilds...fibonaccis realy helped me to find good targetzones and to avoid stranded orders in the wrong direction. but it will hapen...

steve i wonder one thing. what do you think is more important to your system: the fact that most of the time the market turns and hit the target? or that your account grow overtime enough to take the 1000p stop? in case the second answer is right my system could fail. i do 1-2 trades a day, today nothing. maybe the eur-yen is to slow for this system. but its to early to resume, im in the market 4 days.
  • #3,222
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:52pm Feb 29, 2008 2:52pm
Well, it's that time again!! Drum-roll pls....

This time I've dipped into negative equity, to the tune of $2000

I made one big mistake of having 5 longs near the top of the range (214) so I had to offset those with 5 shorts all the way down over the past couple of days. Will the market come back??

My basic trading strategy now is just to cascade take profits in 50's, each trade separated by 10 pips (20 if you include the spread) to minimise trades being triggered only for the market to reverse. If the market strongly trends then I can see my losses growing more quickly, at least quicker than I can take profits.

I will demo this for a few months, or until 1 set of stop losses are hit, so that should be about 8 weekly updates. Hopefully things will turnaround next week.

If others are demoing this strategy, it would be interesting to compare results. After the honeymoon is over, the real work begins for everybody.

Stevie, do you have any advice on what else I'm doing wrong, or could improve upon?

Thanks as always!
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  • #3,223
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:52pm Feb 29, 2008 2:52pm
thank you steve,

yes im at the beginning and on the downmove today i didnt wanted to place some shorts in outland again, so i missed some good pips. and btw i can not check trades all the time because i have to work.

is it hapen to you in the time you run your system, that you place all five orders in on direction and then it turns the other way for a longer time? i now have these five long trades allocated placed on the downmove, so if we will go the same way up this will be serious pips...if... but i dont want to be pessimistic. i have 2 of the trades within the possible 38% retracement, so these have the best chance to TP.
  • #3,224
  • Edited Mar 1, 2008 3:31am Feb 29, 2008 3:06pm | Edited Mar 1, 2008 3:31am
I just looked at the numbers again, seems that I miscalculated your AW based on your own account.

Since you manually close trades in profit at NY close, and some trades will also slip past take profits, then your average win becomes 13024/343 = 38 pips.

So your expectancy in pips is now around 22 pips, adjusted for AW.

Edit: I looked at your original totals, and as you stated you've used net figures (minus losses and after spread costs), so it looks like you guys were correct in your assertion! I should of quit while I was behind.LOL
  • #3,225
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:33pm Feb 29, 2008 3:33pm
LOL Iso,

Yes, that's the thing you really don't want to happen by having them all stuck at one end of the range. I've been there & all you can do (unless you break the rules, which is tempting but don't!) is to make as much as you can with the shorts.

I'm not sure about the 10 pip increments on the shorts. I know you're trying to make hay whilst the sun shines but a possible scenario could play out that will leave you 'stuck in the middle'.

What I mean is that lets say your longs are in the 212's & 213's and your shorts are all in the range that we're trading in now. A sudden reversal could leave you with a huge gap of maybe 500 pips that you cannot trade and basically have to wait for the market to come back either way.

I try to keep the lowest long & the highest short within hitting distance or you just have to wait.

There is also another thing that you could do if you're basically 'square the market' with all positions on (as long as you're in profit). My investor and I decided to do this last night and so begins my little story of maybe my worst 20 minutes trading in a year.

OK, we started off at $103,500 mid January and as of last night had banked enough pips to bring the balance to $128,600. After my unrealised drawdowns the actual account value was $109,300 or thereabouts.

We decided, OK, lets close all these positions out and basically start again on 1st March with a tidy $6k profit and 10 new positions to fill. Great idea but never discount the 'Steve factor' in anything lol.

It was around 11.30 pm and price had been hovering around 209.30 for an hour. So, I started closing the positions, shorts first and they all closed around 209.20 to 209.30. I was now 5 positions ($250,000) long the market as I tried to close the longs. In that 5 minutes the price dived to 208.30 and I could only close them on the retrace at around 208.60/70.

To cut a long story short, balance is now $107,500 with no positions open! I now understand I could have closed everything with one click. Sod's law - if I'd closed longs first my balance would now be around $111,000, if it had stayed flat I'd have been OK too.

Did I swear? Well maybe a little hahahaha. Anyhow, what's done is done and overall have had a good month and a good start.

Cheers Iso

Steve
Quoting Isotonic
Well, it's that time again!! Drum-roll pls....

This time I've dipped into negative equity, to the tune of $2000

I made one big mistake of having 5 longs near the top of the range (214) so I had to offset those with 5 shorts all the way down over the past couple of days. Will the market come back??

My basic trading strategy now is just to cascade take profits in 50's, each trade separated by 10 pips (20 if you include the spread) to minimise trades being triggered only for the market to reverse. If the market strongly trends then I can see my losses growing more quickly, at least quicker than I can take profits.

I will demo this for a few months, or until 1 set of stop losses are hit, so that should be about 8 weekly updates. Hopefully things will turnaround next week.

If others are demoing this strategy, it would be interesting to compare results. After the honeymoon is over, the real work begins for everybody.

Stevie, do you have any advice on what else I'm doing wrong, or could improve upon?

Thanks as always!
  • #3,226
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:40pm Feb 29, 2008 3:40pm
It's always difficult to gauge where the market actually is. You started 4 days ago with the price right at the top of the range well over 160.

We've obviously had a big dip these last two days but price in the 157's is still in the middle of the range. I do understand what you're saying and I always have to tell myself the same thing.

Now you have the 5 longs on you can only make money on shorts and until price dictates otherwise that's what you need to do. Just be patient and don't place all 5 shorts at once. I know it's difficult around work - I have to take that into account as well.

Just for your info, on GJ the last 3 weeks I've had all 5 shorts under 208 so have had to make money on longs. It was only today that on my own live account 2 of the shorts were cleared out.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting alpiner
thank you steve,

yes im at the beginning and on the downmove today i didnt wanted to place some shorts in outland again, so i missed some good pips. and btw i can not check trades all the time because i have to work.

is it hapen to you in the time you run your system, that you place all five orders in on direction and then it turns the other way for a longer time? i now have these five long trades allocated placed on the downmove, so if we will go the same way up this will be serious pips...if... but i dont want to be pessimistic. i have 2 of the trades within the possible 38% retracement, so these have the best chance to TP.
  • #3,227
  • Edited Mar 1, 2008 3:17am Feb 29, 2008 5:01pm | Edited Mar 1, 2008 3:17am
Quoting steviet
overall have had a good month and a good start.
Steve
Well done Steve . You are in that elite 5% club now,hopefully you will make this your permanent abode. May you continue to prosper.
  • #3,228
  • Mar 1, 2008 3:37am Mar 1, 2008 3:37am
Man, that must of been tough to watch!!! I hope your investor took it all in his stride.LOL

OK it looks likes I have to sit tight right now. Looking at your reply to alpiner, I probably made the mistake of taking 5 shorts at once as well.

The MM is pretty clear so the real secret to success is what kind of discretionary trading one uses, maybe I need to rethink that too...

Cheers Stevie!

Quoting steviet
LOL Iso,

Yes, that's the thing you really don't want to happen by having them all stuck at one end of the range. I've been there & all you can do (unless you break the rules, which is tempting but don't!) is to make as much as you can with the shorts.

I'm not sure about the 10 pip increments on the shorts. I know you're trying to make hay whilst the sun shines but a possible scenario could play out that will leave you 'stuck in the middle'.

What I mean is that lets say your longs are in the 212's & 213's and your shorts are all in the range that we're trading in now. A sudden reversal could leave you with a huge gap of maybe 500 pips that you cannot trade and basically have to wait for the market to come back either way.

I try to keep the lowest long & the highest short within hitting distance or you just have to wait.

There is also another thing that you could do if you're basically 'square the market' with all positions on (as long as you're in profit). My investor and I decided to do this last night and so begins my little story of maybe my worst 20 minutes trading in a year.

OK, we started off at $103,500 mid January and as of last night had banked enough pips to bring the balance to $128,600. After my unrealised drawdowns the actual account value was $109,300 or thereabouts.

We decided, OK, lets close all these positions out and basically start again on 1st March with a tidy $6k profit and 10 new positions to fill. Great idea but never discount the 'Steve factor' in anything lol.

It was around 11.30 pm and price had been hovering around 209.30 for an hour. So, I started closing the positions, shorts first and they all closed around 209.20 to 209.30. I was now 5 positions ($250,000) long the market as I tried to close the longs. In that 5 minutes the price dived to 208.30 and I could only close them on the retrace at around 208.60/70.

To cut a long story short, balance is now $107,500 with no positions open! I now understand I could have closed everything with one click. Sod's law - if I'd closed longs first my balance would now be around $111,000, if it had stayed flat I'd have been OK too.

Did I swear? Well maybe a little hahahaha. Anyhow, what's done is done and overall have had a good month and a good start.

Cheers Iso

Steve
  • #3,229
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:44am Mar 1, 2008 4:44am
!!!
I must admit I have conducted similar catastrophies and have laughed a little here But dude, any account over 100,000 and you should be calling that broker up and giving them stern instructions whenever you want to coordinate a large number of transactions like that. In fact you should ALWAYS call them. Were you seriously clicking on buttons?!!

*faints*

Anyway a little cursing wont harm anyone, and the lost money will look like peannuts to you in a years time. Good luck mate and keep sharing those amazing stories (good and bad). I thought it was just me doing goofy stuff like that

PS: hope your investor has a good sense of humor :S

Quoting steviet
LOL Iso,

Yes, that's the thing you really don't want to happen by having them all stuck at one end of the range. I've been there & all you can do (unless you break the rules, which is tempting but don't!) is to make as much as you can with the shorts.

I'm not sure about the 10 pip increments on the shorts. I know you're trying to make hay whilst the sun shines but a possible scenario could play out that will leave you 'stuck in the middle'.

What I mean is that lets say your longs are in the 212's & 213's and your shorts are all in the range that we're trading in now. A sudden reversal could leave you with a huge gap of maybe 500 pips that you cannot trade and basically have to wait for the market to come back either way.

I try to keep the lowest long & the highest short within hitting distance or you just have to wait.

There is also another thing that you could do if you're basically 'square the market' with all positions on (as long as you're in profit). My investor and I decided to do this last night and so begins my little story of maybe my worst 20 minutes trading in a year.

OK, we started off at $103,500 mid January and as of last night had banked enough pips to bring the balance to $128,600. After my unrealised drawdowns the actual account value was $109,300 or thereabouts.

We decided, OK, lets close all these positions out and basically start again on 1st March with a tidy $6k profit and 10 new positions to fill. Great idea but never discount the 'Steve factor' in anything lol.

It was around 11.30 pm and price had been hovering around 209.30 for an hour. So, I started closing the positions, shorts first and they all closed around 209.20 to 209.30. I was now 5 positions ($250,000) long the market as I tried to close the longs. In that 5 minutes the price dived to 208.30 and I could only close them on the retrace at around 208.60/70.

To cut a long story short, balance is now $107,500 with no positions open! I now understand I could have closed everything with one click. Sod's law - if I'd closed longs first my balance would now be around $111,000, if it had stayed flat I'd have been OK too.

Did I swear? Well maybe a little hahahaha. Anyhow, what's done is done and overall have had a good month and a good start.

Cheers Iso

Steve
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #3,230
  • Mar 1, 2008 6:34am Mar 1, 2008 6:34am
Thanks very much zones

Quoting zones
Well done Steve . You are in that elite 5% club now,hopefully you will make this your permanent abode. May you continue to prosper.
  • #3,231
  • Mar 1, 2008 6:39am Mar 1, 2008 6:39am
Hi Iso,

It was a bit of a nightmare that's for sure but it's happened now so time to move on

It was my investor's suggestion lol, which in theory was a sound one - he forgot to take the Steve factor into account though. What a plonker eh? On that note, it will be interesting to see what my reply to your post in my profile will be later this year

On my own live account, I have all 5 longs on too, a 210, two 211's a 212 & a 213 Currently have 3 shorts from 206.05 down so I too need to see if we get a retrace up before piling in with any more shorts.

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting Isotonic
Man, that must of been tough to watch!!! I hope your investor took it all in his stride.LOL

OK it looks likes I have to sit tight right now. Looking at your reply to alpiner, I probably made the mistake of taking 5 shorts at once as well.

The MM is pretty clear so the real secret to success is what kind of discretionary trading one uses, maybe I need to rethink that too...

Cheers Stevie!
  • #3,232
  • Mar 1, 2008 6:43am Mar 1, 2008 6:43am
Hey Pluto,

Yup, hindsight is a wonderful thing that's for sure lol.

I'm not used to closing positions as I just let them run generally - just the odd single trade at NY close. Certainly a lesson learned!

Good to see you mate & hope things are going well for you

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting Plutonite
!!!
I must admit I have conducted similar catastrophies and have laughed a little here But dude, any account over 100,000 and you should be calling that broker up and giving them stern instructions whenever you want to coordinate a large number of transactions like that. In fact you should ALWAYS call them. Were you seriously clicking on buttons?!!

*faints*

Anyway a little cursing wont harm anyone, and the lost money will look like peannuts to you in a years time. Good luck mate and keep sharing those amazing stories (good and bad). I thought it was just me doing goofy stuff like that

PS: hope your investor has a good sense of humor :S
  • #3,233
  • Mar 1, 2008 8:02am Mar 1, 2008 8:02am
Quoting steviet

It was a bit of a nightmare that's for sure but it's happened now so time to move on

Steve
Hey Steve,
Just my two ruppies worth(and they are alot less than 2 pennies)you have had a winning month, you are flat so no nasty surprises in store. Your trading style is such that you are never really stressed. How many people here on this site or in general can honestly say that they trade live, profitably and stress free. Most fund managers would die to be in your position. I know i certainly would love to be in that stress free stage.
  • #3,234
  • Mar 1, 2008 5:49pm Mar 1, 2008 5:49pm
Hi steviet,

Just poking my nose in the door to congratulate you on the great success story in this thread. I had to skim my way through it by jumping 10 pages at a time, but was able to find the "key" points like the ending of the first strategy in May and the switch to your profitable 1000/50 scalping method.

Here's to your continued success!
  • #3,235
  • Mar 2, 2008 8:50am Mar 2, 2008 8:50am
Thanks again

Yup, generally it's pretty stress free and I think that's one of the keys to being consistently profitable. Thanks for your kind words again and looking forward to starting off with a clean slate this week.

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting zones
Hey Steve,
Just my two ruppies worth(and they are alot less than 2 pennies)you have had a winning month, you are flat so no nasty surprises in store. Your trading style is such that you are never really stressed. How many people here on this site or in general can honestly say that they trade live, profitably and stress free. Most fund managers would die to be in your position. I know i certainly would love to be in that stress free stage.
  • #3,236
  • Mar 2, 2008 8:52am Mar 2, 2008 8:52am
Hey there

Feel free to poke your nose in anytime you like. I don't post that much these days but am generally around & I particularly enjoy reading your thoughts.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting capitalist88
Hi steviet,

Just poking my nose in the door to congratulate you on the great success story in this thread. I had to skim my way through it by jumping 10 pages at a time, but was able to find the "key" points like the ending of the first strategy in May and the switch to your profitable 1000/50 scalping method.

Here's to your continued success!
  • #3,237
  • Mar 3, 2008 7:38pm Mar 3, 2008 7:38pm
hi Stevie

i have some questions.

did you change the maximum positions only for the managed account, right?

when you had the 40% you was risking how % per trade? 10%? do you have any idea if trading with this risk untill now you would have survived and if yes what whould be the maximum drawdown?

thanks in advance.

hey smjones i am waiting to see the update about your USDCAD. And i made a question on the Skunny's trade if you have time and patience please answer my question there.

sorry for my english.

cheers.
  • #3,238
  • Mar 4, 2008 1:04am Mar 4, 2008 1:04am
Hi

Answers below.....

Quoting giraia_br
hi Stevie

i have some questions.

did you change the maximum positions only for the managed account, right? No, maximum positions are the same for both accounts I trade.

when you had the 40% you was risking how % per trade? 10%? do you have any idea if trading with this risk untill now you would have survived and if yes what whould be the maximum drawdown? I was risking 10% per trade which was far too high. I also had no maximum positions & it could have been disastrous. Currently I trade 2% on my own account and 4.5% on my managed account.

thanks in advance. That's OK :

hey smjones i am waiting to see the update about your USDCAD. And i made a question on the Skunny's trade if you have time and patience please answer my question there.

sorry for my english.

cheers.
  • #3,239
  • Mar 4, 2008 5:31am Mar 4, 2008 5:31am
thanks Steviet

i forgot that: your leverage is 100:1?

thanks again
  • #3,240
  • Mar 4, 2008 5:48am Mar 4, 2008 5:48am
Quote
hey smjones i am waiting to see the update about your USDCAD

Hi, I am posting this once a month. I don't want to cluter Steve's thread with my stuff. Probably around the 20th or so.
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