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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #64,281
  • Mar 1, 2008 12:20pm Mar 1, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting Pipimintpati
Hey thanks your filling in the wholes of Swiss with Chedder.

"Where Feedback Flows Intelligence Flows"

-Pipimint
Although the analysis of scrat is somewhat correct .. there is also correlation between bonds , oil futures , usd and markets.

I touched on these in another posting.

USDJPY is a carry trade. Net longs like it as they get the interest rate differential. In times when there is risk aversion in the markets money will be moved out of the carry trades and into safer investments like gold and 10 year T- bonds.

The feds lowering interest rates keeps the yield curve nice and steep as they control the short term rates and the lower end of the Yield curve. The feds lowering rates really has little to do with propping up the markets and more to do with keeping the yield curve steep. If this becomes flatter banks profits will suffer as the differential at which they can borrow money and lend money will be less. The curve has to stay steep for now so that they can make the money back from the write downs they are going suffer. By the way the overall credit write are reported to be 600 billion , so far they have only annouced 160 billion.

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/ec...06/el0609.html

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.c...=A1ARTA0005380

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/29/mark...ion=2008022910

Make for a good read on bonds. The last site is a note of how the treasuries advance as markets drop.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #64,282
  • Mar 1, 2008 12:51pm Mar 1, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting venci
Anyone familiar with this indicator?
This guy is very familiar.


LOL, just joking.
Attached Image
  • #64,283
  • Mar 1, 2008 1:33pm Mar 1, 2008 1:33pm
Golden Section is a cool indicator. I'm running on strategy tester now to see how it reacts to changing markets. The indicator needs to be refreshed every once in a while.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Golden_section_v2.2.mq4   38 KB | 574 downloads
It really is that easy.
  • #64,284
  • Edited 1:58pm Mar 1, 2008 1:45pm | Edited 1:58pm
here's what i have right now, it's zup75 - it's pretty much the same as the last version.
all the indicators in the archive must be placed into MT indicators folder. only then place zup on your chart and check "allow dll imports" box, otherwise it won't work.
also, there's a template with my settings inside the archive.
and a chart, just as an example. i put an arrow to show how zup identified the place where the down move started... it's that little square.
have fun with it.

Quoting arezab
Thanks Scrat, Idid a search but I couldn't find it. Do you mind to post it if you have it inside your indicators?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjzup.gif Size: 21 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip ZUP_v75.zip   62 KB | 477 downloads
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #64,285
  • Mar 1, 2008 1:54pm Mar 1, 2008 1:54pm
sure. everything is much more complicated than what i explained. but keep in mind that was the short version for the connection between g-j and dow jones.
of course gold and oil play a crucial role. in fact, for who wants to trade any pair involving usd (even if it's a cross and it doesn't have usd in it... just like g-j) i think a chart for gold is a must.

Quoting malcolmb14
Although the analysis of scrat is somewhat correct .. there is also correlation between bonds , oil futures , usd and markets.

I touched on these in another posting.

USDJPY is a carry trade. Net longs like it as they get the interest rate differential. In times when there is risk aversion in the markets money will be moved out of the carry trades and into safer investments like gold and 10 year T- bonds.

The feds lowering interest rates keeps the yield curve nice and steep as they control the short term rates and the lower end of the Yield curve. The feds lowering rates really has little to do with propping up the markets and more to do with keeping the yield curve steep. If this becomes flatter banks profits will suffer as the differential at which they can borrow money and lend money will be less. The curve has to stay steep for now so that they can make the money back from the write downs they are going suffer. By the way the overall credit write are reported to be 600 billion , so far they have only annouced 160 billion.

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/ec...06/el0609.html

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.c...=A1ARTA0005380

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/29/mark...ion=2008022910

Make for a good read on bonds. The last site is a note of how the treasuries advance as markets drop.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #64,286
  • Mar 1, 2008 2:46pm Mar 1, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting Carrera
This guy is very familiar.


LOL, just joking.
  • #64,287
  • Mar 1, 2008 2:47pm Mar 1, 2008 2:47pm
Quoting Scrat
sure. everything is much more complicated than what i explained. but keep in mind that was the short version for the connection between g-j and dow jones.
of course gold and oil play a crucial role. in fact, for who wants to trade any pair involving usd (even if it's a cross and it doesn't have usd in it... just like g-j) i think a chart for gold is a must.

There is a company called concept forex that actually have developed a gold indicator for esignal that you can plot on forex charts .. cool right.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #64,288
  • Mar 1, 2008 3:45pm Mar 1, 2008 3:45pm
winner card for this week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily eurusd.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #64,289
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:04pm Mar 1, 2008 4:04pm
hussin naiji,
i'm looking there too, i was shorting this pair since 108,45, but exited too early, now waiting for a little pull back up...Plus it is on the good support level, which is almost broken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 122.gif Size: 35 KB
If you do - don't be afraid, if you are afraid - don't do
  • #64,290
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:47pm Mar 1, 2008 4:47pm
Hope everyone had a KILLER week.

I will be gone most, if not all of next week.
We're having Twin girls.
My wife is being induced tomorrow evening if she doesn't get into labor on her own by then.

So, I wish a good week to all

See you on the 10th.

Maybe things will have settled by then.....

Cheers,

kj
  • #64,291
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:55pm Mar 1, 2008 4:55pm

This pair is a beauty how it moves.
Buttlerflys and Gartleys is the game here.
Let's see it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-JPY 4h Patterns March 1-2008.png Size: 113 KB
  • #64,292
  • Mar 1, 2008 5:01pm Mar 1, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting kujo17
Hope everyone had a KILLER week.

I will be gone most, if not all of next week.
We're having Twin girls.
My wife is being induced tomorrow evening if she doesn't get into labor on her own by then.

So, I wish a good week to all

See you on the 10th.

Maybe things will have settled by then.....

Cheers,

kj

Congrats bro, I can feel your happyness here in the Caribbean.
Everything is going to be fine.

TC
  • #64,293
  • Mar 1, 2008 5:39pm Mar 1, 2008 5:39pm
Quoting Carrera

This pair is a beauty how it moves.
Buttlerflys and Gartleys is the game here.
Let's see it.


Love the charting.

My tools are open range breakouts , moving averages , RSI (main one) linear regression channel (one can play those bad boys off a 1 min chart) .

As long as we make money who cares how you do it.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #64,294
  • Mar 1, 2008 9:12pm Mar 1, 2008 9:12pm
Quoting PipChick
Scrat,
Where can I get zupv76? An earlier version I have boggs my charts down so I had to remove them.
PipChick
Here's ZUP 76, for any that might have difficulty navigating through the Russian site.
  • #64,295
  • Mar 1, 2008 9:14pm Mar 1, 2008 9:14pm
Didn't upload first time
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ZUP_v76.mq4   344 KB | 642 downloads
  • #64,296
  • Mar 1, 2008 9:23pm Mar 1, 2008 9:23pm
[quote=kujo17;1878932]Hope everyone had a KILLER week.

I will be gone most, if not all of next week.
We're having Twin girls.


Congratulations kujo. We will look forward to hearing that your twin pipettes have arrived safely and in good health.

No doubt you'll be happy to pull the night shifts ....as you're up most nights anyway. Guess you'll just have to start practicing clicking the mouse with your nose as you'll have your arms full.

Blessings to you & your wife.

Sue
  • #64,297
  • Mar 1, 2008 10:17pm Mar 1, 2008 10:17pm
Hi all. I bought long just before close so eventhough my indicators are screaming short so I guess you could say I am now long biased.

Querie as per atteched G/J 4H chart:

Wondering if the double bottom highlighted by the ellipses are valid or do I need to consider the low highlighted by the square. Difference in lows is apprx 4pips.

Appreciate comments.

Regards, D.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cha4.gif Size: 35 KB
where thought goes energy flows
  • #64,298
  • Mar 1, 2008 10:31pm Mar 1, 2008 10:31pm
Quoting Damo12
Hi all. I bought long just before close so eventhough my indicators are screaming short so I guess you could say I am now long biased.

Querie as per atteched G/J 4H chart:

Wondering if the double bottom highlighted by the ellipses are valid or do I need to consider the low highlighted by the square. Difference in lows is apprx 4pips.

Appreciate comments.

Regards, D.
The ones ellipses are valid. The square ones are also valid, but that double bottom is completed already with the bullish rally after the double bottom.

4 pips won't be any diference. Doesn't have to be exactly.
  • #64,299
  • Edited Mar 2, 2008 9:56pm Mar 1, 2008 10:46pm | Edited Mar 2, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting Damo12
Hi all. I bought long just before close so eventhough my indicators are screaming short so I guess you could say I am now long biased.

Querie as per atteched G/J 4H chart:

Wondering if the double bottom highlighted by the ellipses are valid or do I need to consider the low highlighted by the square. Difference in lows is apprx 4pips.

Appreciate comments.

Regards, D.
Double bottoms and tops can be seen on any time frame . lets call is a double test for sake of arguement.

You might have entered the long to early. Sometimes it is safer to wait for the confirmation of the entry on a smaller time frame.

The 5 min showed a classic 1-2-3 sell trigger (high , low , lower high). it then proceeded to break the bear flag.

The safer long entry would be if the '3' high of 207.4 was broken to the upside indicating a higher high on the 5 min is in place and a possible retracement is in place.

Targets for the 1-2-3 sell are
206.1 (50%)
205.8 (61.8%)
205.36 (78.6) if this is broken go to 161.8% fib
204.82 (100%)
204.13 (127%)
203.24 (161.8%)
200.68 (261.8%

If in fact the close on Friday was another low point then we have a 1-2-3 buy trigger 205,8 =1 , 207.4 = 2 , 206.2 = 3

The fib extension 78.6 of the 1-2-3 buy trigger would be 207.54 (the previous high and test of the bottom of the main linear regression channel). If it breaks here then 161.8% is 208.53 ( the top of the main channel) .


Not to freak you out we might get a bounce on the double bottom as all my rsi is very oversold on multiple time frames , however wouldn't that just be to easy for the bulls ?

Here is the 5 min. Those are just simple 2sd linear regression channels plotted to show trend on 5 min charts.

All of this analysis is done using price and trend lines ( the LR channels).

Attachment
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #64,300
  • Mar 1, 2008 10:48pm Mar 1, 2008 10:48pm
Brilliant to hear you and your wife are going to be parents of twins.
Hope your wife has a good delivery and mum and both babies are healthy.
It will disrupt family life for a bit but truly worth it . Congratulations to you both. regards n.
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