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The Coin Trade System aka Flip The Coin

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 29, 2008 8:38am Feb 28, 2008 9:18am | Edited Feb 29, 2008 8:38am
Hi All,

we had this last year: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=48562

Now I will start it again. But instead of words I will post actual trades every morning. See how it goes.

Regards
BR

Edit
I have decided to add here links that might of interest to people who follow my experiment. I will add more as I find interesting posts/threads.

This is about why systems are profitable or not.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=71674
A bit about axioms
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=40441
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  • #2
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:33am Feb 28, 2008 9:33am
BTW. We do not care about the following. NONE.

patterns
price action
candlesticks
trends
magic numbers like sweet spots and fibos
retracement levels
...

and the derivatives of those:
the countles indicators of various families.
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  • #3
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:37am Feb 28, 2008 9:37am
Quoting bullrock
Hi All,

we had this last year: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=48562

Now I will start it again. But instead of words I will post actual trades every morning. See how it goes.

Regards
BR
Yesss!!! It's Back.

I call heads
Just Trade It
  • #4
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:38am Feb 28, 2008 9:38am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Yesss!!! It's Back.

I call heads
THE FATHER OF THIS SYSTEM
Forecasting the currency markets is like forecasting the outcome of a coin toss- Alan Greenspan
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  • #5
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:41am Feb 28, 2008 9:41am
Quoting bullrock
THE FATHER OF THIS SYSTEM
Forecasting the currency markets is like forecasting the outcome of a coin toss- Alan Greenspan

I love that quote. So true.
Just Trade It
  • #6
  • Feb 28, 2008 10:01am Feb 28, 2008 10:01am
then using a coin toss..


Its not 50% ...it is 25 % ....here is why....

The market is a 50/50 % ....up or down

Your choice ( analysis , coin toss, etc.)...50 /50 %

The mistake is that people think that there coin toss is a 50/50 chance of being right....IT IS 25%

Because it is .50X .50 = .25 %

If you were to stick with on direction for the rest of your life...lets say Long , Everytrade you made the rest of your life would have a 50/50 chance.

But if you go back and forth in your mind between long and short....and the market is going back and forth... guess what...it is not 50/50 its 25%

If in vegas , you sit a table that has a red or black choice...baring luck over x trials...you should be @ 25 % right.

If you sit at that same table ..and pick just one color, lets say red...over the same period as above , you should be closer to 50%

Vegas puts out a contract on anyone how brings up this topic
  • #7
  • Feb 28, 2008 10:20am Feb 28, 2008 10:20am
Quoting seeit
then using a coin toss..


Its not 50% ...it is 25 % ....here is why....

The market is a 50/50 % ....up or down

Your choice ( analysis , coin toss, etc.)...50 /50 %

The mistake is that people think that there coin toss is a 50/50 chance of being right....IT IS 25%

Because it is .50X .50 = .25 %

If you were to stick with on direction for the rest of your life...lets say Long , Everytrade you made the rest of your life would have a 50/50 chance.

But if you go back and forth in your mind between long and short....and the market is going back and forth... guess what...it is not 50/50 its 25%

If in vegas , you sit a table that has a red or black choice...baring luck over x trials...you should be @ 25 % right.

If you sit at that same table ..and pick just one color, lets say red...over the same period as above , you should be closer to 50%

Vegas puts out a contract on anyone how brings up this topic
I do not go there then. Thanks for the input.
.
  • #8
  • Feb 28, 2008 10:41am Feb 28, 2008 10:41am
See the posts above. Basically the reason why i am SOOOOOO curious about the outcome.... For the next few months I will post the trades daily and we will see.
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  • #9
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:11am Feb 28, 2008 11:11am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
looking forward to this
  • #10
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:23am Feb 28, 2008 11:23am
Can't wait either!
  • #11
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:25am Feb 28, 2008 11:25am
I have found on this. Awesome.

http://www.forex-tsd.com/expert-advi...lity-luck.html
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  • #12
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:27am Feb 28, 2008 11:27am
The margin offsets the odds, unless it's negligable to the size of the trade. Same goes for several trades on connected pairs - at least if that group is taken as the whole "population" (the whole group the statistics ae based upon).

Other than that, no offense I hope, but I think it's a total waste of time, your time primarily. Maybe if you upgraded it in some way - like always betting on the 5min, 15 min, 1 hr or so on trend.. But even then it's like saying - let's throw away all considerations that an experienced traders has when he enters a trade and just use one. Though, maybe if the same is repeated for many different considerations, one by one, it could be quite usefull. (Like trading off of a resistance on so and so number of bounce, or the same for a support - here the odds are probably better, or RSI based and more stuff like that).
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #13
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:29am Feb 28, 2008 11:29am
Quoting Jurrasic
The margin offsets the odds, unless it's negligable to the size of the trade. Same goes for several trades on connected pairs - at least for that group is taken a the whole "population" (the whole group the statistics ae based upon).

Other than that, no offense I hope, but I think it's a total waste of time, your time primarily. Maybe if you upgraded it in some way - like always betting on the 5min, 15 min, 1 hr or so on trend.. But even then it's like saying - let's throw away all considerations that an experienced traders has when he enters a trade and just use one. Though, maybe if the same is repeated for many different considerations, one by one, it could be quite usefull. (Like trading off of a resistance on so and so number of bounce, or the same for a support - here the odds are probably better, or RSI based and more stuff like that).
Will see...
....said the blind......
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  • #14
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:30am Feb 28, 2008 11:30am
Well, good luck anyway I guess..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #15
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:34am Feb 28, 2008 11:34am
Quoting Jurrasic
Well, good luck anyway I guess..
Basically the exercise is for the fact. To understand the randomness and the real purpose of any kind of TA. Unless you do not understand the random behaviour and that you can do through such exercises you have no clue what is the effect of TA on your trading. What is the TA/luck ratio I would say. Second you will never know how good/bad money management can turn things upside down.
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  • #16
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:37am Feb 28, 2008 11:37am
Quoting bullrock
Second you will never know how good/bad money management can turn things upside down.
You mean you wanna play with the TP versus SL size ratios ?
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:44am Feb 28, 2008 11:44am
Quoting Jurrasic
You mean you wanna play with the TP versus SL size ratios ?
That is my intention. That is what is the effect of MM on a whatever system that is. For that I will use a random system. That is I do not care in what direction I enter.

The time will be fixed at 6 GMT.
I will flip there a coin and the currency will be the GU.
I will have 4 units 2 with 40 SL and 2 with 60 SL and 40/80/120/160 tps.
Then next day I close, flip, reopen.


EDIT

When SL hit reverse with the same rules.

And that for 6 months.
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  • #18
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:45am Feb 28, 2008 11:45am
The main point is consistency, accuracy and CONSISTENCY.
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  • #19
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:45pm Feb 28, 2008 12:45pm
good luck and thanks mate...Looking forward to it!!!


Matty
  • #20
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:09pm Feb 28, 2008 1:09pm
Live account or demo?
Who's the broker?

Not sure it matters. Just curious.
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