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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #63,801
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:02am Feb 28, 2008 12:02am
Bear flag

This might just be a bear flag on the 60 min . The blue line is my long term trend line. Not sure we will see 212 tonight.

Targets if it break bottom of flag based on fib expansions put on 1-2-3 sell formation

210.5
210.20
209.65
209
208.2

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.jpg Size: 176 KB
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  • #63,802
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:14am Feb 28, 2008 12:14am
Exactly the same think I was talking about yesterday, http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=63698

but is much clear when you are looking your Daily chart. Interesting, the SAME pattern for 33 days, with ZIGZAC 5/3 formation..

http://doske.com/fx/snapshot-5.png






Quoting malcolmb14
Just a very simple observation

There was a lot of talk and excitement about an inside bar forming last week.

Here is the weekly. The consolidation zone Nov /Dec finished on an inside bar , and had higher lows, before a 2000 pip week.

We have THE EXACT same pattern now. Week six in this pattern was last week ....

Just an observation

Attachment
  • #63,803
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:15am Feb 28, 2008 12:15am
Price has just been hanging out, BELOW the 50 sma on the 15m.

Also, came up to touch the 5sma of the 4H.

We are still down, but leveling off on the 1H QQE.
We are still down on the 4H qqe as well and RSI is below 50.

Price is now being held down, but the long term lower TL on the 4H.
We broke below it 20:00gmt and it's holding us down as Resistance now.

Once we fall below the 100sma on the 4H(210.55) we should see 209.37 area.

211.17 area, the 50.0 Fib of the last move up on the Daily, is holding us down. With a break of the 210.55 area, we'll be below the 61.8 fib and probably see a 100.0 retracement, which would bottom us out at 208.80.

I'm NOT holding my breath for 208.8, but it is a reasonable possibility at this point.

I just don't see us going LONG just yet.
  • #63,804
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:24am Feb 28, 2008 12:24am
short biased but clear direction not yet confirmed


see chart

ps jarro... my trendline is different than yours... mine here is daily....

regards

d

ps still holding onto short trade for now....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj daily.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj4hr.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #63,805
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:27am Feb 28, 2008 12:27am
I'm still short, scared to go long coz I have a feeling this thing can just tank anytime, it's at a very very critical area.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #63,806
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:38am Feb 28, 2008 12:38am
I'm not sure if UJ can break below 106. Every we get a candle closed below this level. The next candle closes right back above it. Like I said last night, UJ is well supported so it will limit GJ downward move. Already 5 4H candles without success. And if it doesn't break, it will bounce sooner or later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #63,807
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:40am Feb 28, 2008 12:40am
Quoting karmostaji
I'm still short, scared to go long coz I have a feeling this thing can just tank anytime, it's at a very very critical area.
if 210 supports, i'll close my shorts there
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #63,808
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:41am Feb 28, 2008 12:41am
Quoting kujo17
Price has just been hanging out, BELOW the 50 sma on the 15m.

Also, came up to touch the 5sma of the 4H.

We are still down, but leveling off on the 1H QQE.
We are still down on the 4H qqe as well and RSI is below 50.

Price is now being held down, but the long term lower TL on the 4H.
We broke below it 20:00gmt and it's holding us down as Resistance now.

Once we fall below the 100sma on the 4H(210.55) we should see 209.37 area.

211.17 area, the 50.0 Fib of the last move up on the Daily, is holding us down. With a break of the 210.55 area, we'll be below the 61.8 fib and probably see a 100.0 retracement, which would bottom us out at 208.80.

I'm NOT holding my breath for 208.8, but it is a reasonable possibility at this point.

I just don't see us going LONG just yet.
Below the 4H 100sma is the mighty daily gann at 210.20. Remember the price action last time this pair try to break below the daily gann when it was at 209.20?
  • #63,809
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:42am Feb 28, 2008 12:42am
http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/6563/gjdfdsdbq8.jpg

hi guys..

just my personal preview...
i see...gj below...Ema50 ..candle...so..see a strong support...maybe...can break..again... at fibo levek 34.2(210.81)....i believe..Gj want to go to fibo level 50%..209.90to next target..just my opinion..:..rsi(down)..stoch(down )..qqe(cross down..)
  • #63,810
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:43am Feb 28, 2008 12:43am
Quoting $teve
I'm not sure if UJ can break below 106. Every we get a candle closed below this level. The next candle closes right back above it. Like I said last night, UJ is well supported so it will limit GJ downward move. Already 5 4H candles without success. And if it doesn't break, it will bounce sooner or later.

very good point steve.... as i posted last night i think uj will go back up a bit then drop like a stone.... for 2 reasons

first there is a gap from last nights fall that should get filled and then uj drop again...and 2 the neckline of the violated h and s gets tested more times than not before it drops again.... just my 2 cents..... but yeah i see that uj probably does not fall without rising first


thanks steve
  • #63,811
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:47am Feb 28, 2008 12:47am
we have range on M15 between 211.15 and 210.60. just wait 4 BO
  • #63,812
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:56am Feb 28, 2008 12:56am
Quoting karmostaji
if 210 supports, i'll close my shorts there
The 210.00 is the bottom of the Inside Bar (which is a indecsion bar). If Price breaks that then 208.75 (the bottom of the Weekly Inside Bar) is reachable.

So, the question is, why am I long at 211.03? If Price reaches 210.53 I'm out with a small loss of 50 pips. I'm giving my plan a chance to play out.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #63,813
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:01am Feb 28, 2008 1:01am
Quoting dagoods
very good point steve.... as i posted last night i think uj will go back up a bit then drop like a stone.... for 2 reasons

first there is a gap from last nights fall that should get filled and then uj drop again...and 2 the neckline of the violated h and s gets tested more times than not before it drops again.... just my 2 cents..... but yeah i see that uj probably does not fall without rising first


thanks steve
One thing I try to do is never to speculate when a strong S/R will get broken. If you look at the chart I posted, you'll see how many times it has come down to this level and bounced. Now imagine you were speculating a break every time, you would have been wrong every time. Now if you traded the bounce every time, look at how many pips you would have made.

Just like with GJ, you'll never see me mention a price above 213.80. I don't know when it will break so I just assume it will hold every time. I will be right many times but wrong once. Look at the last time GJ bounce from 213.20 prior to this week, it made a low at 208.85 so it's very profitable if you traded the bounce off of these major S/R levels.
  • #63,814
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:03am Feb 28, 2008 1:03am
Quoting jarroo
The 210.00 is the bottom of the Inside Bar (which is a indecsion bar). If Price breaks that then 208.75 (the bottom of the Weekly Inside Bar) is reachable.

So, the question is, why am I long at 211.03? If Price reaches 210.53 I'm out with a small loss of 50 pips. I'm giving my plan a chance to play out.

Jim
I closed mine with 30 pips loss. The price doesn't continue as I expect. I will wait ... if I see bull sign, I'll enter again and if 210.60 is broken I'll enter short. No position for now.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #63,815
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:05am Feb 28, 2008 1:05am
Quoting arezab
I closed mine with 30 pips loss. The price doesn't continue as I expect. I will wait ... if I see bull sign, I'll enter again and if 210.60 is broken I'll enter short. No position for now.
Nice plan of action, my friend.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #63,816
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:07am Feb 28, 2008 1:07am
Quoting karmostaji
I'm still short, scared to go long coz I have a feeling this thing can just tank anytime, it's at a very very critical area.
Ditto !!!!

209.3 or 208 even.....
  • #63,817
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:10am Feb 28, 2008 1:10am
Quoting $teve
One thing I try to do is never to speculate when a strong S/R will get broken. If you look at the chart I posted, you'll see how many times it has come down to this level and bounced. Now imagine you were speculating a break every time, you would have been wrong every time. Now if you traded the bounce every time, look at how many pips you would have made.

Just like with GJ, you'll never see me mention a price above 213.80. I don't know when it will break so I just assume it will hold every time. I will be right many times but wrong once. Look at the last time GJ bounce from 213.20 prior to this week, it made a low at 208.85 so it's very profitable if you traded the bounce off of these major S/R levels.
Well said !
  • #63,818
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:10am Feb 28, 2008 1:10am
I Lovvee Patience
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #63,819
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:15am Feb 28, 2008 1:15am
Quoting karmostaji
I Lovvee Patience
It is truly the only way to trade.
You may make more pips getting in earlier from time to time, but usually, the losses negate the extra gains and most of the time, more often than not, you'll make LESS by being impatient.
  • #63,820
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:21am Feb 28, 2008 1:21am
How beautiful is that.. Lovely
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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