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  • #141
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:23pm Feb 27, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Moving stop to break even .. new target 211.8
Safer target 211 .... nice little 50 pips
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #142
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:33pm Feb 27, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting PipAV8tor
I saw the post too late to catch it, but it is doing just what you said.
Was the market drop part of your call?
No was just looking at the GBPJPY rsi14 crossing down thru 70 trigger on a 5 min. I like to trade all triggers on GBPJPY during US markets times.

The target was just a hunch...lets make it sound better and call it an educated guess ...lol .

Most charting software .. place lines at 70 , 60,50,40,30 on the rsi.... set alerts for when price crosses them .

Study a 2 hour chart with the RSI14 crossing down thru 70 or 60 , or crossing up through 30 or 40 technique .. some sweet pips . making me think I might try the longer term time frames again ... but stop has to be 250 pips !!! last night I had a short trigger 2 hour 212.79 .On a 2 hour chart entry is 25 pips under the low of the trigger bar = 212.50 entry.

I took profit on my scalp 211.02.

Also I did kind of cheat and could see dj - 30 having issues with breaking thru the high of day yesterday at 12750 ish.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #143
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:34pm Feb 27, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Moving stop to break even .. new target 211.8
Sorry that should read 210.8...lol ....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #144
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:10pm Feb 27, 2008 6:10pm
There is something brewing for a position trade.

Look back in history...Feb of last year to be precise.

I have Hidden bear div on the daily

Think 190.... yes 190 ....

The last consolidation zone lasted 6 weeks .. then dropped 2000 pips in a week.

This consolidation zone has been for 6.5 weeks now.

I took 1/2 short position off 212 ( for long term trade) .

i will add to it on break 210 to down side.

I have an RSI crossing down thru 50 trigger ( short on the daily) entry is at 210.20

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #145
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:13pm Feb 27, 2008 6:13pm
You sure nailed it earlier, so I am liking your analysis.
Do you think it has anything to do with this repatriation business?
That sure would put a lot of selling pressure on the jpy pairs.
Plus, history does like to repeat itself...
  • #146
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:36pm Feb 27, 2008 6:36pm
Quoting PipAV8tor
You sure nailed it earlier, so I am liking your analysis.
Do you think it has anything to do with this repatriation business?
That sure would put a lot of selling pressure on the jpy pairs.
Plus, history does like to repeat itself...
No my analysis earlier was wrong .. I said 210.8 .. it hit 210.65

To tell you the truth I am rubbish at position trading lol. But my Partner ( we run a forex fund) .. he was a bull till today and he is an awesome position trader.

I have been thinking 190 for weeks now , and have been building a short position slowly on rallies. Go to the thread that i started from and everyone is still a bull .... 220 blah blah blah. Ever heard of the Contrarian Indicator ? google it. When everyone thinks long go short. The big money guys ( I got laughed at for this one) .. want the poor retail investor to be trapped long ( this in stocks is called a bull trap and something I play on a regular basis). They need the liquidty for when they sink the markets. There has to be longs scrambling to get out to provide that liquidity.

For newbies .. here is how a bull trap works in a stock and you can apply it to forex.

1) pre market the Market Maker buys the stock ... lots of it . .say 500,000 pieces on a stock that trade 2 million shares per day.. they drive the price up
2) dumb old retail investor just got out of bed only has one eye open still , but sees the stock ramping up pre market.
3) retail investor, who can trade pre market in their account starts buying to catch a ride of the 'wave' , mean while Market Maker has stopped buying and is dreaming of all the money they are going to make that day.
4) stock price gets pushed even higher pre market ... Market Makers look like this
5) Market opens .... retail investors who could not trade pre market in their account now rush into to catch the run of the stock.... they look like this also for the 1st 10 minutes .. everything going well .. profits rolling in.
6) Market Maker .. wakes up from nap . They start to short the market ...hold on how many units are they shorting .. orders of 100,000 going through on the ECN ... the stock sinks fast .. typically to below the price that it started off in pre market....
7) Retail investors who were bulls now look like this
8) The bulls were well and truly trapped.

Think this cannot happen in forex .. think again ....

that drop last night was from Russian Selling.


But scalping .... I love it .... i seem to have a knack for it.

I have a stock club with about 300 traders in it on TCNet ... I have taught them how to play open range breakouts on stocks. A day trading technique that I am now applying to forex.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #147
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:09pm Feb 27, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
No my analysis earlier was wrong .. I said 210.8 .. it hit 210.65

To tell you the truth I am rubbish at position trading lol. But my Partner ( we run a forex fund) .. he was a bull till today and he is an awesome position trader.

I have been thinking 190 for weeks now , and have been building a short position slowly on rallies. Go to the thread that i started from and everyone is still a bull .... 220 blah blah blah. Ever heard of the Contrarian Indicator ? google it. When everyone thinks long go short. The big money guys ( I got laughed at for this one) .. want the poor retail investor to be trapped long ( this in stocks is called a bull trap and something I play on a regular basis). They need the liquidty for when they sink the markets. There has to be longs scrambling to get out to provide that liquidity.

For newbies .. here is how a bull trap works in a stock and you can apply it to forex.

1) pre market the Market Maker buys the stock ... lots of it . .say 500,000 pieces on a stock that trade 2 million shares per day.. they drive the price up
2) dumb old retail investor just got out of bed only has one eye open still , but sees the stock ramping up pre market.
3) retail investor, who can trade pre market in their account starts buying to catch a ride of the 'wave' , mean while Market Maker has stopped buying and is dreaming of all the money they are going to make that day.
4) stock price gets pushed even higher pre market ... Market Makers look like this
5) Market opens .... retail investors who could not trade pre market in their account now rush into to catch the run of the stock.... they look like this also for the 1st 10 minutes .. everything going well .. profits rolling in.
6) Market Maker .. wakes up from nap . They start to short the market ...hold on how many units are they shorting .. orders of 100,000 going through on the ECN ... the stock sinks fast .. typically to below the price that it started off in pre market....
7) Retail investors who were bulls now look like this
8) The bulls were well and truly trapped.

Think this cannot happen in forex .. think again ....

that drop last night was from Russian Selling.


But scalping .... I love it .... i seem to have a knack for it.

I have a stock club with about 300 traders in it on TCNet ... I have taught them how to play open range breakouts on stocks. A day trading technique that I am now applying to forex.

I love your approach I like being Inn out with profit, high lots fast pips. I was with IBFX(ripoff), But now with MBT and scalping- short time frame works great. nThe 10'oclock Bulls book is great.The OR is a great indicator. Looks like tonight London-New York are going to feed the Bears
Thanks Malcolmb
Think BIG!
  • #148
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:23pm Feb 27, 2008 7:23pm
Quoting 1ADB
I love your approach I like being Inn out with profit, high lots fast pips. I was with IBFX(ripoff), But now with MBT and scalping- short time frame works great. nThe 10'oclock Bulls book is great.The OR is a great indicator. Looks like tonight London-New York are going to feed the Bears
Thanks Malcolmb

I love trading in and out with large lot sizes .. can be 5 min .. can be for hours. But typically I always close before US session closes.

That is the beauty of forex is the liquidity it offers.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #149
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:09pm Feb 27, 2008 10:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Do you really want to know how simple trading is ?

Take a 15 min chart.

1) long trigger is when the bar crosses the 50 sma
2) enter 15 pips above the high of the trigger bar.

Opposite for short.

This technique will net you about 300 - 400 pips per week ..... works best in none ranging markets. ie will catch massive runs in trends as they happen.

Friday

These were the trades around the 50 sma on the 15 min
210.95 to 211.46
210.73 to 210.49
210.67 to 210.15
210.44 to 210.15
210.67 to 211.40 today

229 pips all in all ... 1 day.

That is one technique that can be used for use of 50 sma's

I prefer to get entries using rsi as they get me into the trade sooner. I typicaly use the 50 sma as targets as if a price gets to far away from it it will typically come back to it.
Could you go into more details on your exits? If you are catching the "massive runs" you must be leaving part of your position run and exiting partially at s/r points?

Thanks.

Like what I am reading so far...
  • #150
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:24pm Feb 27, 2008 10:24pm
Quote
that drop last night was from Russian Selling.

Was he selling as part of the trap or was he selling to set the trap up for going long?!
  • #151
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:53pm Feb 27, 2008 10:53pm
Quoting charlinks
Was he selling as part of the trap or was he selling to set the trap up for going long?!

I am not saying this is a trap , however go to the other GBPJPY thread that I subscribe to and see how many Bulls are excited that we got this pullback and they are adding to their long positions.

Without the drop to a lower level the bulls would not be adding to their positions.

The fact the drop was so fast was interesting ... obviously someone wanted it to get to that level quickly. What news drove the selling ? There was none.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #152
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:56pm Feb 27, 2008 10:56pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I am not saying this is a trap , however go to the other GBPJPY thread that I subscribe to and see how many Bulls are excited that we got this pullback and they are adding to their long positions.

Without the drop to a lower level the bulls would not be adding to their positions.

The fact the drop was so fast was interesting ... obviously someone wanted it to get to that level quickly. What news drove the selling ? There was none.
I think it was the EURUSD going above 1.50 and as a result USDJPY being droven into the ground.

1.50 is a psychological level and a newly established base.

On top of that the world will consider decoupling from the USD and it will be like a house of cards... it will be a major market shift. That's just how I see it... Of course I could be wwwwwwrooong!
  • #153
  • Feb 27, 2008 11:14pm Feb 27, 2008 11:14pm
who all on this thread last night kept talking about price going to 214.00..........with the fancy gann grids and such.....are we still going to see 214??
trading naked.......
  • #154
  • Edited 11:50pm Feb 27, 2008 11:37pm | Edited 11:50pm
malcolmb,

according to my analysis, since now is near to london session, and GJ bounces from 211.18 (yesterday's low..not exact value) .. i think it will retouch that low and continue bearish.

and GJ owes to go down because of YEN news earlier.

what u guys think?

edit: i consider 211.18 is yesterday's low and not 210.65 since that time GJ was preparing itself for yen news
  • #155
  • Feb 27, 2008 11:45pm Feb 27, 2008 11:45pm
Quoting piphitman
who all on this thread last night kept talking about price going to 214.00..........with the fancy gann grids and such.....are we still going to see 214??
I was one .. I was aiming for 213.,83 .. missed it by 30 pips.

It is always a good lesson to have those stops in place .. the techncial analysis said that it should have gone higher. I had a valid arguement as to why.

Who was to know the market would drop 250 pips in hours.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #156
  • Feb 27, 2008 11:50pm Feb 27, 2008 11:50pm
Quoting kotaro-san
malcolmb,

according to my analysis, since now is near to london session, and GJ bounces from 211.18 (yesterday's low..not exact value) .. i think it will retouch that low and continue bearish.

and GJ owes to go down because of YEN news earlier.

what u guys think?
I agree .

210.5
210.20
209.65
209.08
208.73
208.17

those are the fib extensions and short targets of a new 1-2-3 sell trigger

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  • #157
  • Feb 27, 2008 11:51pm Feb 27, 2008 11:51pm
wrong chart

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  • #158
  • Feb 27, 2008 11:57pm Feb 27, 2008 11:57pm
my m30 analysis. its simple
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  • #159
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:34am Feb 28, 2008 12:34am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Malcomb - thank you for a thought provoking thread (especially the hidden bearish divergence on the daily). I've been reading and rereading this and it's really very interesting. I'll have to demo these strategies before going live with it, but it sounds fairly straightforward.

Couple questions - (1) Do you only trade your RSI, SMA, and OR methodologies on EUR/US overlap? Do you ever trade during the Euro session? You say you only trade during the most volatile times, and I thought the London session was very volatile for this pair.

(2) Do you use a stop loss and if so, how do you determine where it's at? Let's say I'm on a 15 min chart, and RSI crosses down below my 60 and I short 15 pips below the candle. Should the stop be placed let's say 15 pips above the high of that candle and vice versa when going long?

(3) I'm still unsure of TP's. Are sup/res zones from larger timeframes used (for instance hourly charts)?

Well I've enjoyed this thread thus far and plan on reading and rereading this. Thanks again and may the pips be with all of us!
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #160
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:23am Feb 28, 2008 1:23am
my t/p 210.21 or i close earlier if it gets volatile

edit: nice trading day again guys. i got 45pips
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