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  • #1,961
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:20am Feb 27, 2008 3:20am
Price is bouncing off the 1hr 200ema right now . . .
  • #1,962
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:21am Feb 27, 2008 3:21am
Quoting kujo17
Well, the last 10 days or so, has been hectic for me.
Not alot of time to trade or make good analysis'.

Looks like we're stalled up a bit here.

Last three 1H bars have been small and almost identical in size and price.

30m and 1H QQE's are down and below 50.

15M is turning up, but the DP will probably hold us down.

4H is very close to crossing down and when 4H QQE crosses down, we're usually good for 2-300 pips. USUALLY.

We might be in a holding pattern at this point until Frankfurt/London open.

One thing to think about is the UJ 4H QQE is down and she's testing a long term lower TL.

If she breaks that lower TL, this is probably good for a few hundred pips down as a Reversal and not a retracement.

If it is a reversal, I'd put us around 209.32, which was strong S/R area.
211.21, 211.05 and 210.31 are also S/R areas to watch as well.

If the 4H turns down on us, I'd think we're good to 210 area at least.

We had 4 Bull Daily bars on the move up here.
Keeping in the pattern of the last 2 weeks, we could have that mid 209 reversal here for the next few days before retesting 213.8 area.

Until we break 213.5-213.8 area, I'll be in 'scalp' mode.

I have been working my way to trading on longer TF's, using the 15/30M for early entries and then riding the 1H/4H charts and holding onto trades for longer times.

But, with a smaller volume, rangey market, scalping 50-70pips trades up and down, still fills the account equity nicely.

Hope all are well and many Pips to tall.

Trade what you see........

kj
You were right. I took a long just before the drop. TP @ 213.18 was a bit late to catch that one down but I did. I noticed that QQE is even better doesn't lag much like MACD and it shows divergence earlier. Before the move up I notice a divergence pattern on 30M chart. but momentum was up so I took the move up with a caution. was out before it went down. Since you that good with fibs, what are they saying about this move? on a mid-term basis where are we heading? 209.xx? Hey sith big ups.
All the best things in life are free.
  • #1,963
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:24am Feb 27, 2008 3:24am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
  • #1,964
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:42am Feb 27, 2008 3:42am
Quoting fx_lane
You were right. I took a long just before the drop. TP @ 213.18 was a bit late to catch that one down but I did. I noticed that QQE is even better doesn't lag much like MACD and it shows divergence earlier. Before the move up I notice a divergence pattern on 30M chart. but momentum was up so I took the move up with a caution. was out before it went down. Since you that good with fibs, what are they saying about this move? on a mid-term basis where are we heading? 209.xx? Hey sith big ups.
I said 209.5 after the last move up.... no one believed me.... it hit.

I'm going to say 209.30 area .

Due to the fact that 4H QQE is down now.
A close below the Gann HiLo on the 4H.......( if it happens in 2 hrs.)
UJ in the gutter.........

daily Gann at 210.24, we get to that by mid day tomorrow..... we'll see mid 209s to load up the Long ICBMs......

I don't think this is a retrace, it's a full reversal.

3 wave reversals if you look at the Daily.
3 moves up and 3 moves down, a little less each time and all 3 moves up held down at the mid 213 area.

We'll see this 300+ pip reversal and then should move up to 214, test that and with a break make it to 217.5 area.

kj
  • #1,965
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:51am Feb 27, 2008 3:51am
Closed out my first short on G/J +166 pips.

Head and Shoulder pattern on 1 hour chart for those that missed the big signal.

Nice analysis as always kujo, I concur.

Zack
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #1,966
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:06am Feb 27, 2008 6:06am
Quoting kujo17
I'm going to say 209.30 area.

...We'll see this 300+ pip reversal
Hi Kujo

I reckon that vicinity is right because of an upward triangle also forming (sorry I know it's not using QQE terminology but have lots of reading still to do on that).

I am eyeing 208.20 area but only because of this support line. I'm in short at 211.20 so will be interesting to see what US open does with the price.

Daisygirl
  • #1,967
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:22am Feb 27, 2008 6:22am
DG,

No problem at all.
We all talk with/without QQEs.
QQE's are just one indicator of where price is going/been.

208.2 would be my next stop below 209.3 as well.

Unless this US news is aweful and Dow and UJ tank, I think 209.3 will be bottom area.

209.32 and 208.37 are my exact S/R levels.

I'll tp may 3 shorts at 209.50 to be safe.
If she continues past that point, I may just let her go until she gets rejected and then add my Longs from the bottom.

We'll just have to wait and see.

OK, it's now 04:21 pst and I'm beat.
Gotta go get a few hours sleep. Can't wait up for the US news.

Just hoping it goes to 209.3 area, so we can load up some Longs for Triple Interest Weds. !!!!!

Good Night all. Happy Pip hunting to all.
  • #1,968
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:24am Feb 27, 2008 6:24am
Quoting pearsonfx
Closed out my first short on G/J +166 pips.

Head and Shoulder pattern on 1 hour chart for those that missed the big signal.

Nice analysis as always kujo, I concur.

Zack
Zack,
Very nice Pip count there.
I'm letting mine cook to 209 area.
If she gets stopped up at 210.5, I'll punch out.

Lets hope she can bottom out by mid day, so we can load up the longs for Triple Int. Weds..... I have a long from 209 that I'm gonna hold until 217 is hit and it's made $446.80 in swap already..... free money......

kj
  • #1,969
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:37am Feb 27, 2008 6:37am
Quoting kujo17
Zack,
Very nice Pip count there.
I'm letting mine cook to 209 area.
If she gets stopped up at 210.5, I'll punch out.

Lets hope she can bottom out by mid day, so we can load up the longs for Triple Int. Weds..... I have a long from 209 that I'm gonna hold until 217 is hit and it's made $446.80 in swap already..... free money......

kj
How can the price drop 200 pips in minutes?
Manipulation?
I don't undesrtand, anybody can provide some insight?
  • #1,970
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:14am Feb 27, 2008 7:14am
Quoting marcb
How can the price drop 200 pips in minutes?
Manipulation? I don't undesrtand, anybody can provide some insight?
This is what I reckon... you're going to go mad if you try to work out why. Just shows that you have to be prepared with MM and be ready to take advantage of good opportunities.

Tomorrow - I'm sure we will be told it was because of gold prices, ftse falling, inflation worries for March, troubles experienced by some English bank or the Euro hitting an all time high (huh???).

Price hitting a strong resistance point on a triangle on the daily chart could very well be one of the reasons as well as triple interest coming up so prices are driven down low by those who can.

And take what I say with a grain of salt... LOL

Daisygirl
  • #1,971
  • Edited 2:15pm Feb 27, 2008 1:13pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting marcb
How can the price drop 200 pips in minutes?
Manipulation?
I don't undesrtand, anybody can provide some insight?
Here’s what I think happened. The yen had been gaining strength against the dollar (see your U/J charts) for the past couple days. It may have been mostly due to US economic problems, but another possible issue is this “repatriation” (see link below).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1867347&postcount=63 348

The Dow was positive yesterday, but U/J (one side of G/J) kept falling anyhow. In my opinion, if it had stopped at or above 106.80, we wouldn't have had the large fall in G/J. But when it slipped below it at about 03:40EST, U/J started hitting stop losses and took a nosedive to 106.20. That translated to almost 120 pips for G/J, and was the big drop we all noticed.

Then around 03:55EST G/U (the other side of G/J) started retracing from it’s high of 1.9970 down to 1.9865. It may have been normal price movement. Or it may have been “pre-news” trade positioning (there was a news release at 04:30EST). Or maybe the earthquake played a psychological role in it somehow, and made the move larger than it would have been without. It’s probably a moot point. But this movement translated to another 100 pip loss for G/J.

For a few hours after that, G/U and U/J each dipped a little lower. Nothing as dramatic though, and they did it at different times. But it managed to send G/J to a new low of 210.85. The lowest 1H / 4H close was 211.08. It didn’t break the lower trend lines on my 1H and 4H charts.

G/J retraced back to 212 around 11:00EST. This was approximately a 50% retrace. It turned the lower timeframe QQE’s bullish through the 1H, and had price closing above the Gann on all of them. But now price is heading back down.

The 4H QQE turned bearish at 04:00EST and candles are now forming below the Gann. The Daily QQE is still bullish, however, and price is closing above that Gann. My charts show the Daily Gann at 210.30, and the 4H Gann at 212.79. But both of these are moving averages. By Asian session, the 4H Gann will be much closer to 212.

NY session daily pivot is 211.85. Let’s see how things go today. If we don’t get any closes below 210.50, price still has a good chance of recovering IMO.

  • #1,972
  • Feb 27, 2008 5:56pm Feb 27, 2008 5:56pm
4H QQE is about to cross below 50.
This should be good for another 100 Pips at least.

UJ is also down below 50 on the 4H.

GJ price is sitting on the Daily 61.8 fib of that last move up.
It also bounced off 210.68 which is(was) a strong S/R area.
Hopefully, with a breach of that, we'll then see 209.25 area to load up.

I still feel we have some more down in this reversal, before the move up.

Possibly even at full 100% retrace touching 209 by tomorrow.

Holding my shorts still and waiting to load up the longs.
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  • #1,973
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:54pm Feb 27, 2008 6:54pm
And love what this steep, upper TL is doing for us.

I think S2 at 209.93 is a given here at this point.

Mid 209s, with a break of that area, we see 208.32

Lets see what happens today.

Happy Pip Hunting to all.
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  • #1,974
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:45pm Feb 27, 2008 7:45pm
Weekly Pivot is working overtime to hold this thing up.
Hopefully, we can get a break of 210.65 here soon.

Or we might get a bounce up to 211.30 area.

And then another retest.

Just waiting to see......
  • #1,975
  • Feb 27, 2008 8:11pm Feb 27, 2008 8:11pm
Sounds good, thanks Kujo, let's all get ready for another new day of trading. Good luck everyone.
  • #1,976
  • Feb 27, 2008 8:56pm Feb 27, 2008 8:56pm
I agree Kujo, shes been bouncing off approx 210.70, im also looking for a break of around .65 - .50, if that goes she should drop a few pips. Failing that if it heads back up over 211.25 - .35 ill be looking long for 211.90 as a scalp, and then if it breaks that Ill be staying in till 212.70 ish. Patience is a virtue on this one I think.
  • #1,977
  • Edited Feb 28, 2008 3:56am Feb 27, 2008 11:58pm | Edited Feb 28, 2008 3:56am
I entered my Short @210.86 as price is below 5sma on M15, below TFT line on M5, M5's QQE1 crossed down already, and entered as M15's QQE1 crossed down the dotted line with M15 Stoch still being in the overbought range, at around 73% at the time. M5 stoch was getting close to oversold, so had to be prepared for a possible small retrace up and hope that if it does, my SL 50 holds. As my personal rule, I always use PP after trade reaches +25, by moving my SL to +5, then leave that trade open until either PP is hit, or my TP 50 is hit, however, I do exit my trade at any given time of the trade if M15 QQE1 re-crosses the opposite direction and then enter trade if that one confirms the other way. Let's see what happens here, win or lose, it's a learning experience, loses comes with the wins, just make sure to win more pips than we lose.

Edit: PP+5 placed after price moved +25, my Sell trade is now a +5 minimum trade. ^^
Edit 2: TP +50 hit, will now look for new entrance to confirm.
Edit 3: Buy confirmed and entered @210.61 with same rules, but opposite of Sell rules of course. Very good entrance in my mind as M15 Stoch was oversold below 30, and M5 Stoch was in the 40s, H1's stoch was also in the oversold range below 30s.
Edit 4: Buy reached +25, PP +5 in place, my Buy trade is now a +5 minimum trade. ^^
Edit 5: Buy reached +50 TP, trade is now closed, +100 so far for today. If no more trade confirms for the next hour, I'll be done for today.
Edit 6: No more trade confirmed for me, so bed time ^^ Good luck everyone with rest of London and New York!
  • #1,978
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:08am Feb 28, 2008 12:08am
Price has just been hanging out, BELOW the 50 sma on the 15m.

Also, came up to touch the 5sma of the 4H.

We are still down, but leveling off on the 1H QQE.
We are still down on the 4H qqe as well and RSI is below 50.

Price is now being held down, but the long term lower TL on the 4H.
We broke below it 20:00gmt and it's holding us down as Resistance now.

Once we fall below the 100sma on the 4H(210.55) we should see 209.37 area.

211.17 area, the 50.0 Fib of the last move up on the Daily, is holding us down. With a break of the 210.55 area, we'll be below the 61.8 fib and probably see a 100.0 retracement, which would bottom us out at 208.80.

I'm NOT holding my breath for 208.8, but it is a reasonable possibility at this point.

Fibs, TLs and QQEs....... easy Money......
  • #1,979
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:17am Feb 28, 2008 12:17am
Quoting kujo17
Price has just been hanging out, BELOW the 50 sma on the 15m.

Also, came up to touch the 5sma of the 4H.

We are still down, but leveling off on the 1H QQE.
We are still down on the 4H qqe as well and RSI is below 50.

Price is now being held down, but the long term lower TL on the 4H.
We broke below it 20:00gmt and it's holding us down as Resistance now.

Once we fall below the 100sma on the 4H(210.55) we should see 209.37 area.

211.17 area, the 50.0 Fib of the last move up on the Daily, is holding us down. With a break of the 210.55 area, we'll be below the 61.8 fib and probably see a 100.0 retracement, which would bottom us out at 208.80.

I'm NOT holding my breath for 208.8, but it is a reasonable possibility at this point.

Fibs, TLs and QQEs....... easy Money......
Totally agree, the QQEs and Fibos are the best things I've ever used so far. Great info as always kujo, thanks. Now, let's hope this thing starts dropping so I can win my first trade for today.
  • #1,980
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:19am Feb 28, 2008 12:19am
Quoting kujo17
Price has just been hanging out, BELOW the 50 sma on the 15m.

Also, came up to touch the 5sma of the 4H.

We are still down, but leveling off on the 1H QQE.
We are still down on the 4H qqe as well and RSI is below 50.

Price is now being held down, but the long term lower TL on the 4H.
We broke below it 20:00gmt and it's holding us down as Resistance now.

Once we fall below the 100sma on the 4H(210.55) we should see 209.37 area.

211.17 area, the 50.0 Fib of the last move up on the Daily, is holding us down. With a break of the 210.55 area, we'll be below the 61.8 fib and probably see a 100.0 retracement, which would bottom us out at 208.80.

I'm NOT holding my breath for 208.8, but it is a reasonable possibility at this point.

Fibs, TLs and QQEs....... easy Money......
Kujo, Hi.
I'm not normally a Fib fan but from reading your analaysis each day I am slowly coming round. Enjoying your posts.
Thanks. Keep it up.
Damo
where thought goes energy flows
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