(Euro) Elliott Wave Formations

I admire the way you analyse the movement of EW. It looks simple but yet very infomative and easy to understand. Combination with Fibo is just crystal clear. Definitely its gonna be input for my next trade.


Keep it up man.....

Thanx for your compliment ......

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LONGER TERM ( Elliott Waves )

Eur/Usd

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2 charts below


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1st Chart
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...twaves&id=1146

2nd Chart
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...twaves&id=1146

JAMES BROWM

Rest In Peace - You have inspired so many .........

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Can you talk a little bit more on that?

What do you see in this ?

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="575"><tbody><tr><td valign="top">EURUSD: More Volatility

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By Vadim Pokhlebkin

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</td> <td class="EC_article" valign="top">If you've been asking for volatility, you've got it. Last week's boring sideways trading in the EURUSD ended with a bang on Friday (Dec. 8). That morning's improbable swings – 100 pips up, 150 pips down, and all in the span of 3 hours – is exactly why some more experienced forex traders say they don’t trade in December. It's just too easy to get shaken out of your position, whichever direction you may be betting.

It was the ambiguous U.S. jobs report released at 8:30 a.m. last Friday, said the analysts, which sent the EURUSD flying. As for the 150-pip move in the opposite direction two hours later – well, that, apparently, was due to a passing comment by the U.S. Treasury Secretary that a "'strong dollar' was in the U.S. interest," whatever that means.

While those two events last Friday were certainly coincidental with the EURUSD's swings, whether or not you believe they actually drove the market action depends on what school of thought you belong to. From an Elliott wave perspective, the USD was due for a reversal last Friday. EWI's Currency Specialty Service was pointing out a strong chance of that the night before:

Update For: Friday
Posted On: Thu, 7 Dec 2006 19:35:00 GMT
EURUSD [Last Price]: 1.3283
[Topping, correction due]Key Levels: 1.3256. A rally to a new high is possible, but that potential should not overshadow the increasing downside risk.

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/ez...12-12-06-1.gif

We expected a top last Friday because, as you know, an Elliott wave impulse has 5 waves. But on Thursday the move was only showing 3 waves, so what was due next was a corrective wave 4 down – and we certainly got it. That's quite a different view of volatility, isn't it? Turns out, you can actually expect it, if you have the right tools.

With the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement due later today (Dec. 12), the market is bound to experience more near-term volatility. And it's likely to persist as the year-end approaches, so this is a time for cautious trading.

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Hi there guys,

Totally agree w/ the Euro analysis. I'm expecting wave 4 to end around 2978ish (what I think wave 4 is anyway). Then I'm expecting a pretty good move up move.

I also think this upcoming wave 5 will determine the direction for the next 12 to 18 months...but that's not part of this thread.

Happy holidays!

Euro/Usd
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Euro/Usd ( 2 hr bars chart )

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This is gonna be intersting

Do you feel the that the euro and gbpusd will bearish through the year?? From theory i hear it will from many i just am curious ?

I like what itime is saying in the post just above

I agree with the overall assessment below.

-- Itme

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Market Minute

"'No matter what anyone says,' the December 6 lead editorial in The NY] Times insists, the dollar is doomed. The editorial echoes a similar one from the Times on April 2, 2005. Back then, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noted that such a forceful forecast from a non-financial media outlet is extremely rare and a strong contrarian signal. The [Dollar] index responded with a 10% rally..."

– The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, January 2007 issue (online now.)

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="575"> <tbody><tr><td valign="top">The USD: A 'Technical Rally'?

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By Vadim Pokhlebkin

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</td> <td class="EC_article" valign="top">Since the start of the year – just a week! – the U.S. dollar has gained over two percent against the euro. Last Friday (Jan. 5), it even broke below the psychologically important $1.30 level for the first time in two months.

That's quite a change from early December, when the EURUSD was pushing $1.3350. Analysts say the rate got that high in the first place because of the change in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. They've kept the rates frozen at 5.25% since July, and may even cut them going forward – and that, goes the conventional wisdom, is bad news for the dollar.

Yet the USD has been gaining. And have you noticed that any time "fundamental" explanations start to fail like this, the forex media turns to the "less traditional" explanations – such as a "technical decline," for example?

That's what they said yesterday (Jan. 8), when the EURUSD dipped below $1.30 again. "Dollar Drops From Six-Week High on Selling at Technical Levels," said one headline. Apparently, some "foreign central banks bought back the European currency at a key so-called technical level" – namely, $1.2980, "the top of the European currency's trading range from April through late November last year."

Why would that price level be important? Certainly no "fundamental" reasons for it: It's got nothing to do with the economy, or the Fed, or any of that. The only thing that price level had to do with was mass psychology. Simply put, a top of the previous trading range – a line on a chart! – was perceived by forex traders as a good point to buy.

Don't try to find a rational explanation here – there is none. It was a purely emotional decision on behalf of the market players yesterday. And wouldn't you know it, Elliott wave analysis saw it coming a mile away. As early as 2:30 a.m. on Monday, in the middle of the overnight trading session, EWI's Currency Specialty Service posted this intraday update and chart:

02:32 ET/07:32 GMT
[EURUSD] Last Price: 1.3013
Weakness from 1.3296 is viewed as a five wave selling sequence late in development that probably ends in response to one more new low beneath 1.2982. Interim upside potential above 1.3022 is likely quite limited while waiting for this next leg down to commence...

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/ez...o%201-8-07.gif

"One more low beneath 1.2982" was exactly what we got on Monday. After a brief rally, this morning the EURUSD was again hovering near $1.30, as if seeking direction. Well, sooner or later, it always finds it…

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6 out of the first 8 new year turning points in the Euro have seen change of trend. If this months downtrend continues it will make it 7 out 9 or 78%.

Euro - What a week !......

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( BEFORE )

Pg2 - Eur/Usd

The result from this week set up.....
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Priced continued to crash down into this Minor Wave " 5 " .
( AFTER )

Here's another look at the Euro .........

Page 2 ..... Eur/Usd
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Going Into - Tuesday Next week

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Eur/Usd

Hi
I am a member in moneytec but my ID is differnt some monthes ago we followed Fxsurfer that after some time I myself just get confused by his trading way and finally you know it better
now it is while I look to you Elliot wave counts which are good keep the good work .I think I should find your posts here cause Moneytec intradytrade forum is disturbed after Fxsurfer....
about your post I see s good buy area @ 1.2870-80 just like your count..
thx

Welcome to FF. Moneytec threads were really dying off anyway.

Another EW thread you should check out is the one started by FixMe1Too.

yes I have checked it .thx