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  • #101
  • Feb 25, 2008 3:29am Feb 25, 2008 3:29am
Good Morning folks. I hope you all had a splendid weekend. I had a nice break in England for the past week and a bit.
Anyway, back to making donuts as Morge puts it. This morning i wanted the market to test the upper parallel and depending upon its behaviour of test re-test i possibly would have sold it. It never tested the UPL so i shall wait.
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  • #102
  • Feb 26, 2008 5:08am Feb 26, 2008 5:08am
Sadly another disappointing trade. My bias this morning was mildly bullish. I finally went long at 9am at 1.9665. Now i know it wasn't the optimum entry. I hesitated a bit as the previous bar had fallen 34 pips. My stop was below the low of the day at 39. The market went higher to about 75 and turned again to retest the lower parallel line. Once it penetraded and went below 50 i manually closed my position for a loss of 16 pips. Of course that was the absolute bottom and subsequently it went higher to reach its destination of the median line.
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  • #103
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:12am Feb 26, 2008 7:12am
Quoting zones
Sadly another disappointing trade. My bias this morning was mildly bullish. I finally went long at 9am at 1.9665. Now i know it wasn't the optimum entry. I hesitated a bit as the previous bar had fallen 34 pips. My stop was below the low of the day at 39. The market went higher to about 75 and turned again to retest the lower parallel line. Once it penetraded and went below 50 i manually closed my position for a loss of 16 pips. Of course that was the absolute bottom and subsequently it went higher to reach its destination of the median line.

Dude!!!!
  • #104
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:43am Feb 26, 2008 11:43am
Hey Dopey,
You don't have to say it. I know, I know.
An incredible bull run in the afternoon has left me rather incredulous.
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  • #105
  • Feb 26, 2008 4:20pm Feb 26, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting zones
Sadly another disappointing trade.
Take a break or cut your position size. You seem to be reading it well but not trading it well.
I mean this sincerely.
  • #106
  • Feb 26, 2008 9:37pm Feb 26, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting doubledutch
Take a break or cut your position size. You seem to be reading it well but not trading it well.
I mean this sincerely.

Zones,

He's nailed it. You can see it, but you're not doing it.
  • #107
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:10am Feb 27, 2008 1:10am
Quoting Dopey
Zones,

He's nailed it. You can see it, but you're not doing it.
The mother of all shocks, the wise Dopey agreeing with me.
  • #108
  • Edited 2:21am Feb 27, 2008 1:39am | Edited 2:21am
I was uncomfortable with doing anything with Cable this morning. I saw a nice opporttunity on the Jeppy. I am long of 212.65. SL 212.45
Profit target is the Median line.
Edit: SL now 212.90
SL raised to 213.05
Profit taken at 213.22
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  • #109
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:45am Feb 27, 2008 1:45am
Quoting doubledutch
The mother of all shocks, the wise Dopey agreeing with me.
Rofl...according to my wife I'm always wrong, so whatever I say doesn't really matter anyway.

Besides, I really like the Dutch. They're like Germans on valium.

I always ask this because your country really is small and you never know. Do you know a Erik Singerling from Eindhoven or Matthias Herztenberg from Amsterdam? They were guys I knew a long time ago. We met in Israel and I convinced them to come live in Turkey. We had a great time together. Erik even came and visited me in the US, but I lost track of them years ago.
  • #110
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:16am Feb 27, 2008 3:16am
For once listening to Douglas's advice of being rigid with rules but flexible with expectations has paid off. What a nice sell off signal also..
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  • #111
  • Feb 27, 2008 4:01am Feb 27, 2008 4:01am
Quoting doubledutch
Take a break or cut your position size. You seem to be reading it well but not trading it well.
I mean this sincerely.
You are right. My position size is the problem. I shall address it. Thanks for the advice and the sincerity.
  • #112
  • Feb 27, 2008 5:10am Feb 27, 2008 5:10am
Quoting Dopey
Zones,

He's nailed it. You can see it, but you're not doing it.
Hey Dopey,
You are both right.
If i am honest, i think the old ego was playing up. Despite trading far from optimally and with a success rate well below 50% for this month. My balance is down only 5%. With the end of the month approaching i wanted to end Feb profitably. Hence i have been increasing my lot size.
Its ok now i am over this and i am no longer worried about showing a losing month to the rest of the community. I will go back to basics and try to take trades based on my perception of the edge with solid MM.
BTW Dopey, i did go over 18 months of data on the cable, the median line was reached 80.7%. I also went over the same period on a 15min chart to test the test, re-test method. My success rate was over 78%. Now this figure is significantly higher than Morges. My own rationale for this discrepancy is that because i have been backtesting the previous years data so profusely, i was familiar with price action and the market direction especially from August 2007 onwards. Thus i took the signals rather eclectically.
  • #113
  • Feb 27, 2008 8:52am Feb 27, 2008 8:52am
Quoting zones
Hey Dopey,
You are both right.
If i am honest, i think the old ego was playing up. Despite trading far from optimally and with a success rate well below 50% for this month. My balance is down only 5%. With the end of the month approaching i wanted to end Feb profitably. Hence i have been increasing my lot size.
Its ok now i am over this and i am no longer worried about showing a losing month to the rest of the community. I will go back to basics and try to take trades based on my perception of the edge with solid MM.
BTW Dopey, i did go over 18 months of data on the cable, the median line was reached 80.7%. I also went over the same period on a 15min chart to test the test, re-test method. My success rate was over 78%. Now this figure is significantly higher than Morges. My own rationale for this discrepancy is that because i have been backtesting the previous years data so profusely, i was familiar with price action and the market direction especially from August 2007 onwards. Thus i took the signals rather eclectically.
Hi Zones,

If your positions are too big, it will cause you to move stops and check out early. If they're sized correctly for your temperament, then you can hang in on trades and leave the stops alone.

Good job on the testing. I came up with a high 70's number as well (I don't remember exactly and I don't want to dig it out). The problem is that if we're both talking about the same thing here, which is how often does price reach the ML, then we know that many of those PFs are untradeable because they just don't present good entry spots. However many of them are, it just takes patience and persistence.

In the beginning, I wanted to trade every PF I drew. That was a problem. I still say Morge's work is the best for laying out the best way to get into a PF trade.

Good job on the GBP trade.
  • #114
  • Edited 4:59am Feb 28, 2008 4:26am | Edited 4:59am
Short of GY at 211.15..SL 211.30 Profit Target 210.29
Edit: SL 211.18
Sl 211.05
Stopped out.
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  • #115
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:54am Feb 28, 2008 6:54am
Quoting Dopey
Rofl...according to my wife I'm always wrong, so whatever I say doesn't really matter anyway.

Besides, I really like the Dutch. They're like Germans on valium.

I always ask this because your country really is small and you never know. Do you know a Erik Singerling from Eindhoven or Matthias Herztenberg from Amsterdam? They were guys I knew a long time ago. We met in Israel and I convinced them to come live in Turkey. We had a great time together. Erik even came and visited me in the US, but I lost track of them years ago.
You can get stronger stuff then valium in our Coffee Shops..
I hope you don't know me as i spent 2 years in the Hadera Kibbutz in early 90s.:surprised
  • #116
  • Feb 28, 2008 7:12am Feb 28, 2008 7:12am
Zones, I admire your honesty. Yours is one of the few threads which shows that you are still in the struggle phase of trading. So many here who show bucket load of pips on daily basis. Run huge losses on trades and then take small profits. Then they have the audacity to claim that they are following good MM. Tbollocks to that i say.
All i can say to you is keep up the honest work. The fact that you will have a losing month is no big deal. Most here are losers and liars.
  • #117
  • Feb 28, 2008 10:03am Feb 28, 2008 10:03am
Short of 210.83....Stop was 95 now 75
Edit: SL now 50
Took Profit at 210.10
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  • #118
  • Edited 10:28am Feb 28, 2008 10:09am | Edited 10:28am
Hey Dopey,
At last i do a reasonably competent trade. As Morge says beat a line until it beats you. So i sold UPL all the way to the Median line.
Edit: This was a serendipitous trade. I was actually going to take a screen shot for my personal notes and call it a day when i saw the set up.
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  • #119
  • Feb 28, 2008 10:51am Feb 28, 2008 10:51am
Quoting doubledutch
Zones, I admire your honesty. Yours is one of the few threads which shows that you are still in the struggle phase of trading. So many here who show bucket load of pips on daily basis. Run huge losses on trades and then take small profits. Then they have the audacity to claim that they are following good MM. Tbollocks to that i say.
All i can say to you is keep up the honest work. The fact that you will have a losing month is no big deal. Most here are losers and liars.
I wish it was my trading that you found admirable..alas
Thanks for the kind words. I can't comment about others but, my motive for being here is to learn and trade profitably. It is not to show off my analytical or intellectual skills(although those that know me would seriously doubt if i possessed them at all). I think its an excercise in futility trying to kid others and oneself by pretending to be a good trader.
I know i have some way to go to being a consistent trader. However, my desire and committment is there, so no matter how difficult the journey ahead, the numerous hurdles that i shall encounter. I am mentally prepared and looking forward to the challenge.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #120
  • Feb 29, 2008 1:54am Feb 29, 2008 1:54am
Long of 1.9882...Sl 48 Tp 2.00 or near there.
Edit: SL 84
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