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  • #141
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:53pm Feb 26, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting effilang
I believe you're referring to this trade ? :

<chart removed>

If so, nice setup RSBGM! Looks like you've being paying attention in class

Regards,
Effi

Ooooh yes! That was it! I had a good teacher! Thx...

Also had couple of good longs from the last dips of AU and NU. Nice ones too.

I still need to master the makro views of price movements like those channels and significant S/R stuffs. I get so lazy asking those questions of why and where... LOL...

  • #142
  • Feb 26, 2008 1:15pm Feb 26, 2008 1:15pm
Quoting effilang
For those of you who prefer to hold your positions for a longer period of time.

We have a monthly Setup Bar available; 1:1 is ~640 PIPs.

If the high of the STB is broken, i'm making this an official prediction.

The current Monthly STB high is 1.9954

Regards,
E. Lang
Sorry Effi, do you see a bullish movement there?
Seems to me like a "small" trend reversal like the one before.....
I don't say
  • #143
  • Edited 2:44pm Feb 26, 2008 1:19pm | Edited 2:44pm
Anyone care to help him out on this one ?

You're killing me dude...

We have a monthly Setup Bar available; 1:1 is ~640 PIPs.
I have actually highlighted the bar!!!

If the high of the STB is broken, i'm making this an official prediction.
Why would i say if the high of the setup bar is etc... if i'm not referring to a "bullish" signal!!!

The current Monthly STB high is 1.9954
I've even depicted the high!!!

- The letter "L" is visible under the setup to show LONG
- The word "Buy" is actually visible on the chart and i mentioned holding your positions for a longer period of time (+600 Pips)!!!

Common... please, actually try and look when you're looking. This really frustrates me.

Should i make Youtube videos with every signal?! - *BIG SIGH...

I don't mean to be rude, but you have to see how obvious the answer to your question was...

Thank you for your understanding.
Effi
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #144
  • Feb 26, 2008 1:29pm Feb 26, 2008 1:29pm
Pic attached, i agree in this possible long.

Cheers and thanks.

matty
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly.PNG Size: 63 KB
  • #145
  • Feb 26, 2008 1:31pm Feb 26, 2008 1:31pm
Ahhh...very nice!

Thanx for taking your time to draw everything! Will help folks understand better

Appreciated.
Effi
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #146
  • Edited 4:17pm Feb 26, 2008 1:52pm | Edited 4:17pm
CLOSED
--------

GBP/USD (Trade #1):
Multiple Lots: +1.0%, +0.0%
Singular Lots: +2.0%

GBP/JPY (Trade #2):
Multiple Lots: +1.0%, +0.0%
Singular Lots: +2.0%

AUD/JPY (Trade #3):
Multiple Lots: +1.0%, +0.0%
Singular Lots: +2.0%

GBP/USD (Trade #4):
Multiple Lots: +1.0%, +0.0%
Singular Lots: +2.0%

USD/CHF (Trade #5):
Multiple Lots: +1.0%, +0.0%
Singular Lots: +2.0%

USD/CHF (Trade #7):
Multiple Lots: -0.5%, -0.5%
Singular Lots: -1.0%

EUR/USD (Trade #8):
Multiple Lots: +1.0%, +0.0%
Singular Lots: +2.0%

USD/CHF (Trade #9):
Multiple Lots: -1.0%, -1.0%
Singular Lots: -2.0%

GBP/USD (Trade #10):
Multiple Lots: -1.0%, -1.0%
Singular Lots: -2.0%

FLOATING
----------
GBP/JPY (Trade #6):
Multiple Lots: +1.0%, +1.0%
Singular Lots: +2.0%

GBP/USD (Trade #11):
Multiple Lots: +5.0%, +5.0%
Singular Lots: +10.0%

GAIN / STATS
---------------
Multiple Lots: +12.0%
Singular Lots: +18.0%

Risk: 2% / Trade
Win / Loss Ratio: 8:3
Days Traded: 5
Average Gain: 3.6% / Day
Average Trades: 1.6 Trades / Day
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #147
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:18pm Feb 26, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting effilang
I'd like to point out the divergence visible in the chart above.

A reversal could be imminent, once it's done, we will be looking for short signals.

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: Refresh your chart if you're still on the thread as i've updated the picture.
Hi Effi,

In posts 14 and 15 you show a set up for a long trade and then you point out that the up move is showing bearish divergence. If I recall correctly in your first few posts you stated that when you see divergence that takes priority over other signals. So in the case with the long set up would you not take this trade?

Also, if you see a divergence trade developing on say a 4hr chart and you drop down to the 1hr chart to get a better entry price but you don't see the same divergence on the 1hr chart do you still take the trade? This is a bit confusing to me.
  • #148
  • Edited 10:17pm Feb 26, 2008 10:06pm | Edited 10:17pm
Quoting effilang

The most common problem with this strategy is the existence of divergences during which a continuous display of differential is evident for a prolonged period of time, thusly making it harder to pinpoint the exact point of reversal in the market; the absolute pivot. There are several approaches to tackling this.

Some traders find this method so accurate that they are willing to add to their loosing positions on every occurrence of a diversion, because they strongly believe the price will eventually adjust, and so it does almost all of the time. Adding to your losses doesn’t sound too attractive to everyone of course.

Other traders will wait for confirmation of divergence from a confluence of indicators to strengthen the signal and some use trend lines to define the actual reversal in price.

In the presence of serial divergence I recommend that you continue taking signals in the direction of the trend by FINDING THE TREND.

Eventually when the divergence starts taking place, you will get stopped out at the top of the trend. A price that is worth paying in order to filter out the premature divergences.
As for the multi time frame issue; i will look for divergence on a lower time frame to predict potential setups on a higher one, not the other way round.

If you look for a divergence on H4 then move to H1 for an entry you probably would have already missed the break of the setup candle.

Regards,
E. Lang
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #149
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:44am Feb 27, 2008 1:44am
I hope this doesn't get me the "Sith-Noobius" Annual Award but my question is this.
On the attached chart (GBP/JPY 1 Hour) there are 2 consecutive failed Long entries marked with the red arrows (how do you get those neat little boxes in Metatrader). The Setup candles of course in each case being the previous candle. Were these 2 trades valid according to your system or not and how many attempts at the same trade would you recommend.
Secondly, am I correct in saying that there is Hidden Bullish Divergence showing on the Stoch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #150
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:13am Feb 27, 2008 3:13am
so far, +113 net for today using this strategy... i thought there was a long on UJ as it was at the bottom of the tunnel already... unfortunately, it broke down with a nice drop there... deng...

with the UJ drop, i lost my GJ long too which missed a couple of pips to hit TP1 (darn it)... but did a nice TP1 on EJ with a B/E on TP2... the other trades were EU-L and NU-L which hit both TP1 and TP2...

i'm still not ready to take those rides so i may be missing some big moves but, hey, 1:1 and 1:2 TPs are very nice already.

this is awesome, effi. thanks a lot for the tip...
  • #151
  • Edited 4:40am Feb 27, 2008 4:14am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting rsbgm
so far, +113 net for today using this strategy... i thought there was a long on UJ as it was at the bottom of the tunnel already... unfortunately, it broke down with a nice drop there... deng...

with the UJ drop, i lost my GJ long too which missed a couple of pips to hit TP1 (darn it)... but did a nice TP1 on EJ with a B/E on TP2... the other trades were EU-L and NU-L which hit both TP1 and TP2...

i'm still not ready to take those rides so i may be missing some big moves but, hey, 1:1 and 1:2 TPs are very nice already.

this is awesome, effi. thanks a lot for the tip...
Good morning everyone,

I'm happy to hear that RSBGM! - Hope folks are being as fortunate as you with this.

Here is a potential signal:

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/3553/gyqx0.jpg
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #152
  • Edited 4:46am Feb 27, 2008 4:17am | Edited 4:46am
L1 is trade #11, L2 was another trade you could have taken. (While i was killing brain cells at a club...*Sigh).
It was also a good place to add more positions to trade #11.

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/6327/gbap3.jpg
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #153
  • Edited 4:51am Feb 27, 2008 4:35am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting kamsurin
I hope this doesn't get me the "Sith-Noobius" Annual Award but my question is this.
On the attached chart (GBP/JPY 1 Hour) there are 2 consecutive failed Long entries marked with the red arrows (how do you get those neat little boxes in Metatrader). The Setup candles of course in each case being the previous candle. Were these 2 trades valid according to your system or not and how many attempts at the same trade would you recommend.
Secondly, am I correct in saying that there is Hidden Bullish Divergence showing on the Stoch.
http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/7328/gyrq6.jpg

Hello,

For that trade; the first two candles had an equal high of 212.79 as shown on the chart. The second candle, opened, moved lower, then moved higher.

So, the trade was direct. Not to say that situations like what you've described don't happen though, sure they do, the market is chaotic.

To compensate for this, either you change your polarity or you analyze the market trend carefully before considering to continue taking signals in the same direction as the loss incurred.

Read through this, if you're not sure how to gauge the trend:
Trend Determination Through HHs, HLs, LLs and LHs

Regards,
E. Lang

PS: I'm serious about Post #151; It could be a big trade, so fix up and look sharp.
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #154
  • Feb 27, 2008 5:13am Feb 27, 2008 5:13am
Ok. The end of hour volatility around the channel bottom has finished.

Note the setup candle. It has bounced at the top and bounced at the bottom; You don't need to go to a lower time frame to understand that the M5, M10, M15 traders are Ranging right now. We have enough information on H1.

My hope is that the range maintains the Setup Bar's limitations and we get a break at the top (H = 211.78).

If the Setup Bar lows are broken we'll have two possible outcomes;

A: We'll have another knock of the lows, before it reverses high.
B: It knocks of the lows and continues moving down.

In case A, we know what to do.
In case B, we will wait for H1 retracements to get in on a correction and surf the impulsive wave down.


http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/7518/gylp2.jpg
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #155
  • Edited 9:01am Feb 27, 2008 7:27am | Edited 9:01am
These trades around channel extremities can be a little tricky sometimes.

It is possible that if this trade executes, it doesn't go too far.

Sometimes when the channel is violated, it will retrace back into the range partially giving us a less profitable signal and in some cases a whiplash, before continuing in the direction of the break.

Watch this trade closely and exercise additional vigilance in managing your risk if it is triggered.

http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7600/gymy1.jpg
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #156
  • Edited 7:55am Feb 27, 2008 7:34am | Edited 7:55am
We have a new trade on GBP/USD

If you are still holding trade 11# - Add on this dip, otherwise accept it as a new trade.

1:1 is about 30 PIPS

http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/2623/gbut5.jpg
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #157
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:47am Feb 27, 2008 7:47am
Hi E.Lang,

How do OsMA helps in this strategy? I'm kinda confused using it with MACD & Stochastic?

Care to elaborate?

Many Thanks.

Jon
10 pips a day, keep all my bills away.
  • #158
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:49am Feb 27, 2008 7:49am
http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/1230/gykj8.jpg
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #159
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:50am Feb 27, 2008 7:50am
Trade #12 and #13 are both stopped out: -4.0%

Trade #11 is still live.

Although GBP/JPY was stopped and i'm looking for short signals, i will take longs if the price retraces firmly into the channel.

Regards,
E. Lang
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #160
  • Edited 8:19am Feb 27, 2008 7:57am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting jonnhl
How do OsMA helps in this strategy?
Divergence; Post #137
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
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