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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #63,561
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:31am Feb 26, 2008 11:31am
Quoting jarroo
We have a breach. 213.00.
but we should let it to close above it and see an open above it too, right?
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #63,562
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:33am Feb 26, 2008 11:33am
OK I know I've been screaming 217 for weeks, but a different scenario could play out based on the QQE indicator.

The Daily QQE has recovered and it has touched the 50 line, it could cross down from here and the next leg down could start. 213-214 area is a tough resistance. The 4H QQE is also reaching the overbought area, so what happens next?

2 scenario's are on my mind, but which one will actually play out? stay tuned
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #63,563
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:34am Feb 26, 2008 11:34am
Quoting jarroo
We have a breach. 213.00.
Your right on that! I'm thinking we will have a solid retrace from here though as 213 is a huge psychological level of resistance. Just check out the weekly charts and look back, you'll see it. I think we'll see a bounce back down to 212, then back up. I think we've just about seen the high for the day, but then again, who knows. I'll be able to know what's up when the daily comes around. As it is on the daily, it looks like that retrace will meet up perfectly with the 5 sma.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #63,564
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:35am Feb 26, 2008 11:35am
Quoting jarroo
We have a breach. 213.00.
Jaroo, just a quick question, what is the shortest TF on GBP/YEN, you find effective for using inside bars, and do you think using mt4's period optimizer to create other time frames, (example, 3 hr, 6 hr , 8 hr charts) would result in more trades, or would they just overlap?
  • #63,565
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:36am Feb 26, 2008 11:36am
Quoting arezab
but we should let it to close above it and see an open above it too, right?
Yes, that will be the ideal and confirm that we are in a up trend. I was just happy that Price poked through the 213.00, which is a good start.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #63,566
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:39am Feb 26, 2008 11:39am
Quoting karmostaji
OK I know I've been screaming 217 for weeks, but a different scenario could play out based on the QQE indicator.

The Daily QQE has recovered and it has touched the 50 line, it could cross down from here and the next leg down could start. 213-214 area is a tough resistance. The 4H QQE is also reaching the overbought area, so what happens next?

2 scenario's are on my mind, but which one will actually play out? stay tuned
Are the QQE's more precise in determining overbought levels than other indicators though? I've known RSI and others to be able to stay overbought for a good while. Maybe they just need leveled out for more buyers to come into the market. I see no reason to short just yet, although, given a little more time to develop, and I could see this area being tops. If we get a long consolidation here, my bias would be short. If not, then I would still be thinking long.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #63,567
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:47am Feb 26, 2008 11:47am
Quoting mike w
Are the QQE's more precise in determining overbought levels than other indicators though? I've known RSI and others to be able to stay overbought for a good while. Maybe they just need leveled out for more buyers to come into the market. I see no reason to short just yet, although, given a little more time to develop, and I could see this area being tops. If we get a long consolidation here, my bias would be short. If not, then I would still be thinking long.
mike, qqe is the same rsi with the value of 14 which has been smoothed by a 3 smoothed MA. You can build it yourself. Put a rsi(14) on your chart and then apply a smoothed MA with period of 3 over it, then make the original rsi invisible, you will get qqe! ... so qqe can stay overbought for a while like rsi ...
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #63,568
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:48am Feb 26, 2008 11:48am
Quoting GodfreyH
Jaroo, just a quick question, what is the shortest TF on GBP/YEN, you find effective for using inside bars, and do you think using mt4's period optimizer to create other time frames, (example, 3 hr, 6 hr , 8 hr charts) would result in more trades, or would they just overlap?
The 4 hour and Daily have proved to be effective for the my type of trading, which is relatively short term. The Hourly time frame works as well, its just not as reliable.

Inside Bars, Outside Bars, Double Bar Low Higher Close, etc., as you know, carry more weight on higher times, as with all analysis. Using a period optimizer to create other (higher) time frames would be an interesting study, indeed.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #63,569
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:50am Feb 26, 2008 11:50am
Quoting jarroo
We have a breach. 213.00.
Don't count you chicken before they hatch. We still have 15 minutes until the current 4H candle closes and it is still RIGHT ON THE TRENDLINE (looks like a lot of people are watchin this trendline ) I have my rule when price is in the 213 area. If I have to get in a trade, scalp short. Otherwise, stay out and watch. I'll jump in long once there's a convincing break of 213.80. There will be a lot pips to be made if this level is broken so I don't mind waiting. Jumping in head first can be bad. Just look at how many daily candles have bounced off this area.
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  • #63,570
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:54am Feb 26, 2008 11:54am
Quoting arezab
mike, qqe is the same rsi with the value of 14 which has been smoothed by a 3 smoothed MA. You can build it yourself. Put a rsi(14) on your chart and then apply a smoothed MA with period of 3 over it, then make the original rsi invisible, you will get qqe! ... so qqe can stay overbought for a while like rsi ...
Hey thanks Arezab! I appreciate it man. I kind of thought the QQE's were along the same lines of RSI when it comes to overbought and oversold signals, but I've never used them so I couldn't be sure about it. Anywho, thanks for the input.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #63,571
  • Feb 26, 2008 11:55am Feb 26, 2008 11:55am
Hi all,

Here is the chart..I start to think that geppy wont brake my resistance..already try several times but always rejected .Ughh.. make me confuse since the geppy forming a channel to me.open for discuss...

--me, being confuse now--
Attached Image
  • #63,572
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:02pm Feb 26, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting karmostaji
OK I know I've been screaming 217 for weeks, but a different scenario could play out based on the QQE indicator.

The Daily QQE has recovered and it has touched the 50 line, it could cross down from here and the next leg down could start. 213-214 area is a tough resistance. The 4H QQE is also reaching the overbought area, so what happens next?

2 scenario's are on my mind, but which one will actually play out? stay tuned
Ok, so H1 failed to close above 213. We have been testing and getting rejected by this price time-and-time again.

Ok, so Karmo... I really look forward to reading your analysis. Please enlighten us
  • #63,573
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:04pm Feb 26, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting karmostaji
OK I know I've been screaming 217 for weeks, but a different scenario could play out based on the QQE indicator.

The Daily QQE has recovered and it has touched the 50 line, it could cross down from here and the next leg down could start. 213-214 area is a tough resistance. The 4H QQE is also reaching the overbought area, so what happens next?

2 scenario's are on my mind, but which one will actually play out? stay tuned
hi karmo, I enjoy your analysis as everybody else here ... yes you are right about qqe. But as I know you are the man for patterns, I see an ascending triangle here on daily chart. From my experience and what I have seen, these type of triangles will end up breaking their upper trend line and move up.

Pennants and ascending triangles are reversal patterns while symmetrical triangle will break from the opposite direction and continue their way.

here is what I mean ... just my 2 cents ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: triangle.gif Size: 17 KB
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #63,574
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:08pm Feb 26, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting arezab
auxesis, you give several analysis each time and all of them are different with each other. I suggest you to shift to higher TF's for giving your analysis rather than focusing on these 5M or 15M charts which are nothing but noises ... I think everybody is interested in how the main trend will move next and not in the directions of small fluctuations in 5M or so ...

Thank you for your attention.
Arezab,

I’m sorry I didn’t communicate better, I showed a daily chart last night with the expectations to retest the higher s/r levels around 219.

Then went to the hourly chart to determine the daily trend which was up, higher highs higher lows.

From there I was anticipating the drop this morning or correction and went to the lower time frames for an entry north, I believe my overall assessment of price action was correct, I just didn’t get the fill I had wanted that was shown on the last chart.

My only concern was the ability for price to make a new high as the channels were starting to flatten out and there was obvious divergence in price action.

Sorry to have interrupted.

a
  • #63,575
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:10pm Feb 26, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting $teve
Don't count you chicken before they hatch. We still have 15 minutes until the current 4H candle closes and it is still RIGHT ON THE TRENDLINE (looks like a lot of people are watchin this trendline ) I have my rule when price is in the 213 area. If I have to get in a trade, scalp short. Otherwise, stay out and watch. I'll jump in long once there's a convincing break of 213.80. There will be a lot pips to be made if this level is broken so I don't mind waiting. Jumping in head first can be bad. Just look at how many daily candles have bounced off this area.

Granted, for the last few weeks price has been consolidating, but it would seem that we have a clear weekly uptrend and this taken with the weekly inside bars and we should see that resistance crumble.

The range at which price can bounce of 213 is decreasing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #63,576
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:14pm Feb 26, 2008 12:14pm
Two fibs in the 213 area that's been providing a lot of resistance. We don't have the 4H 200ema this time around since it moved down to 212.25 area. We broke it when 212.20 was breached, now it has become strong support. So without the 4H 200ema in the 213 area, maybe there's a better chance of breaking through this time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #63,577
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:19pm Feb 26, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting parlenk
Hi all,

Here is the chart..I start to think that geppy wont brake my resistance..already try several times but always rejected .Ughh.. make me confuse since the geppy forming a channel to me.open for discuss...

--me, being confuse now--
Have pretty much the same line on my 1h chart. Price have entered outside resistance on 4h, but I'm not calling this a break until line is tested again and turned into support. Also note that this new 4h bar just got printed. 1 possible scenario (I would like to see) is price falling down to test support-line on 1h chart, which could occur if currently resistance (213) holds.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hgj.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hgj.gif Size: 15 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #63,578
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:19pm Feb 26, 2008 12:19pm
The Daily 50ema is right above 213, it could provide resistance.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #63,579
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:20pm Feb 26, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting jarroo
The 4 hour and Daily have proved to be effective for the my type of trading, which is relatively short term. The Hourly time frame works as well, its just not as reliable.

Inside Bars, Outside Bars, Double Bar Low Higher Close, etc., as you know, carry more weight on higher times, as with all analysis. Using a period optimizer to create other (higher) time frames would be an interesting study, indeed.

Jim
  • #63,580
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:20pm Feb 26, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting arezab
hi karmo, I enjoy your analysis as everybody else here ... yes you are right about qqe. But as I know you are the man for patterns, I see an ascending triangle here on daily chart. From my experience and what I have seen, these type of triangles will end up breaking their upper trend line and move up.

Pennants and ascending triangles are reversal patterns while symmetrical triangle will break from the opposite direction and continue their way.

here is what I mean ... just my 2 cents ...
Great stuff, let's see how it plays out
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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