Adam F Trade Journal

This journal is an attempt to log my trades and keep disciplined in my trading.

Trade Strategy
MT4 Indicator Package Template AF MM fixed, blue, red, ema, trend, mprofile
Period: M30
Currency pair: GBPUSD
Trading period: Euro and US sessions

Entry rules
Enter in direction of Elliott Wave Analysis (if any waves apparent)
Trade with Trend
- After Red or Blue Arrow reversal
- At Cross of EMA back to trend
- after fake out against the trend failed
Trade Against Trend (start of new trend)
- After Blue arrow only
- After fake out against trend failed, AND move back to trend failed. Now have higher highs and higher lows OR lower lows and lower highs.
- Entry at break of previous high above/below EMA

Liquidation Rules
Trade with Trend - initial stop 10 pips beyond far side of Red/Blue arrow reversal
Trade against trend (start of new trend) - Initial stop below/above previous high/low
Stops to B/E at +50
If weak momentum close at +50 (target for trade)
If strong momentum move TP to +100
At +80 stop to +50 (target for trade)
If strong momentum at +100, move TP to +150
If +150 hit, liquidate all positions. At extreme of daily range.

Notes:
If Red/Blue reversal point reversed of MM line? If yes, this is a positive sign.
Check what MP is doing? Is MP poinint to EMA break as entry point?
Currently no method to judge momentum except for range on bar. What is better way?

Lets see if a) if this trade style works and b) if I can maintain this thread.

Do we have a change of short term trend?
We have a potential reversal point at this mornings 1.9747 with a subsequent low below the EMA at 1.9687, a lower low. Price has rebounded setting a lower high at 1.9730.
Should this structure stay intact and price move short an entry at 1.9686 with SL at 1.9740 and Initial TP at 1.9831 (50 + spread) would be in order.
1.9686 is also daily open so we'll enter @ 1.9685

EDIT:
Entry Triggered 4.36pm European Central Time 10.36am EST
Its 6pm and currently +35, 15 pips short of initial target. Low so far is 1.9637 6 pips short of initial target.

EDIT 2:
6.32pm Initial target hit. Exit position for +51
If I had multiple lots on the position I would close 1 and hold the rest as I think +100 is very likely but I also have reservations. I have confidence in the move as I think its got legs to 1.9300 but the short term momentum is a concern as we are already in the afternoon session in the US.
I'll take a bird in the hand on this one and close up shop for the day.

Looking at the charts this morning there is a chance for another change of trend, with higher highs and higher lows but I am more likely to take the trade short should it eventuate.
Right now I have a red arrow, though a weak one at 1.9670, which may not hold and a subsequent low at 1.9649. Price is sitting on the EMA.

If the structure stays intact I'll take the break of EMA but with confirmation for an entry short, the confirmation being the break of the low at 1.9649.
Initial target will be 1.9598 and SL at 1.9680.
A likely scenario is a quick rise in price (say to 1.9688) and an powerful rejection of this move and a reversal short off of this point, in which case a break of the EMA could be a viable entry point.

EDIT:
Price hit my entry to the pip 1.9648 and reversed immediately. Took out stop at 1.9680 for -32.
If this proves to be just flirting with the long side and structure stay intact I will be looking for a reentry short.

GBPUSD posted a new high at 1.9697.
11.05am I have a red arrow short followed by a break of previous low (1.9670) and EMA.
Entry at 1.9767, initial TP at 1.9614 stop at 1.9707.

Reservations: If not for the 1 pip past previous low at 1.9648 this would be a perfect set up for a long at the break of 1.9618 if 1.9618 had blue arrow.
Watching the price action with interest...

EDIT 1: 11.46am Price pushing past daily open to new daily lows. current low 1.9635, currently +20.
EDIT 2: 12.16pm Price has retraced to my entry but I am keeping stops and TP the same.
The move long to 1.9697 is exactly 61.8% retracement of 1.9747-1.9618 move which'll have the fibonacci traders covering themselves in bodyoil and giddily lovin' themselves up if it holds.
EDIT 3: 1.04pm Price hit Initial TP level of +50, moving TP to +100 and SL to break even as there is some momentum behind the move and there is a break of yesterdays low at 1.9618.
A couple of reservations, news in 1 1/2 hours is a concern particularly US unemployment claims. Also price hit +50 and has immediately reversed 20 pips.
EDIT 4: 2.22pm Price broke through 1.9600 but news 8 mins away. stop loss should be moved in tight to +50 or if that is too close +40.
EDIT 5: 2.30pm Stopped out at close in stop at +48. Overall pretty happy with the trade - though I believe the price will continue to fall to new lows the reaction to the 2.30pm US news is a concern so to come out with a good win without the hassle is a good result.

Edit 6 Trade Postscript:
3.40pm Price has fallen to 1.9558 in just over an hour after the news. Should I have stuck with my trade rules, SL to BE, TP to +100? In this case, yes. Lack of discipline in this case meant I exited too soon and gave back at least 52 pips to the market. An expensive lesson.

We have a similar picture to this time yesteday.
GBPUSD has retraced from a low (1.9558) during the afternoon US session and through the Asian session setting a numer of higher highs and higher lows and set a recent red arrow high (at 1.9635) which is weak.
If yesterday's plot plays out again we'll see a break short and reversal long (to 1.9648/1.9668) followed by a break short and return to trend.

This morning there are a few differences though, we have the beginnings of a blue line/arrow to 1.9558 which indicates a change of trend is more probable than yesterday. If this is a new trend change and price doesn't break the EMA an entry long at 1.9635 is appropriate with a stop at 1.9585. Without more information I wont take the long and whatever happens a trade on the next break of the EMA isn't an option either.

I still hold that a price around 1.9300 is the possible end of this move from 1.9747 and reversal point. Watch and wait and trade what plays out.

EDIT 1: 8.33am Rethinking this through, I believe my bias short is weighing more heavily on my mind than I gave it credit. We have a perfect set up long and change of trend with a fake out against the trend, a move back to trend that failed and higher highs and higher lows. Price is now at 1.9648.
My indicators are saying long, my bias is short. If in doubt, stay out. If price hits a projected TP (+50) of 1.9690 or more on this move I know to follow my indicators rather than my EW theory projections in the future.
EDIT 2: 9.44am Price broke EMA and rebounded. If structure stays intact, a re-break of the EMA and break of previous lows would be a good entry short, 1.9623 with Initial TP 1.9570 and SL 1.9658.
EDIT 3: 9.50am Structure fails on break of previous high at 1.9648 and entry order for short trade cancelled. Longs holding sway.
EDIT 4: Price set high at 1.9682 and broke EMA and low 1.9633. If it doesn't make a new high and breaks EMA again to set new low enter short at 1.9632.
EDIT 5: 4.19pm Entry taken at 1.9632 around 3.20pm. Currently trade is +20 with a new low set at 1.9585.
EDIT 6: Initial +50 TP hit with momentum. Moving stop to BE and TP to +100. Looking for a break of yesterdays low next.
EDIT 7: Price has reversed to 1.9621, 8 pips short of my entry and Stop Loss. It looks like an ABC reversal after a 5 wave but unless the price returns to trend soon getting stopped out has become a more likely scenario that +50 or +100.
EDIT 8: 5.55pm We have new low at 1.9569 indicating the structure is intact and further lows are forecast but I've exited at +54, and notched another low stress trade on the belt. Its an early christmas present to myself.

After a lazy Christmas day I decided that, though the market was open, I wouldnt trade on the 26th, with the feeling that volume and volatility would be down. Daily range on the GBPUSD was down but still decent and it turns out still tradeable. In fact there was a trade set up that would've resulted in hitting my +50 target. Live and learn I guess.

Today there looks to be a set up but its not a strong one. We have a high at 1.9631 (blue line/arrow) bouncing off the 1.9629 Murrey Math line. We have a subsequent break of EMA and low at 1.9571 (another MM at 1.9570). The move failed, as has the return to long trend, failing at 1.9602.

We have a possible entry for a short at 1.9570 to ride down to yesterdays low of 1.9514 and lower.
We also have the low of 1.9570 to consider as the base for a long trade. Since then it is making higher highs and higher lows and broken EMA long. It has a red line, but not red arrow indicating a weakness and of course making a move long, should it break the high at 1.9602 untradable, even though current price is only a few pips short of that point.

So that's my analysis, for the next few hours at least. Wait for break of 1.9570 should it occur. Initial TP at +50 (around previous days low) and SL at the far side of 1.9631. For better R/R a SL on the far side of 1.9618 or 1.9602 - two subsequent lower highs, could be better but of course, with a higher chance of being hit on any bounce long.

Price has just broken 1.9602 long. Though the set up short is weakened by this it has not broken. I'll keep entry order in place, for now.

EDIT 1: 1.55pm price has broken previous high at 1.9631. Entry order cancelled.
EDIT 2: 2.45pm Price broke the previous high by a pip to 1.9632 and we've had a pretty strong rejection of it. Price has bounced off EMA is now hovering just above EMA at 1.9605. The script should go like this, a cross lower, rejection, a cross higher, rejection and a breakout short below the previous low for entry. This entry point will be close to the previous 1.9570 entry and onward to yesterdays low and beyond. Lets see if the price action reads the same script.
EDIT 3: 4pm Break of previous low at 1.9575 and 1.9570. Entry taken
EDIT 4: 7pm We've had a not entirely satisfactory trade so far. Low has been 1.9550, it has zigzag patterned up to 1.9568 and down again to 1.9554. It is now 7pm, 1pm in New York and seems to have run out of gas momemtum wise. To maintain its structure it has to break 1.9550 before it breaks 1.9568 so moving stop to breakeven seems a prudent thing to do in light of the flakey price action. The time of day plus weakness of momentum makes me believe a stopout at break even the likely exit.
EDIT 5: I have been stopped out on 1 position and the other position (2 ndtrading accounts) is still open as I got a slightly better entry (1.9577). With 5 pips to go it looks like it'll be stopped for B/E. Funny this is what I thought would happen yesterday. Daily range 23 1/4 hours in is just 106 pips.

I am maintaining my bias short which seems rather quaint in response to yesterdays move long on the GBPUSD, the first trading day of the year 2 Jan. We had a move long from 1.9566 to 1.9750 or 100 pips shy from the high of 1.9850.

There was a trade set up long which I missed, not because of my bias but because entry occured in the Asian session and it was well underway when I started for the day.

This morning I wake up to what looks to be a move short. A blue arrow signifying a change of trend, a puncture of the EMA and rejection and a rejection of the existing trend.
I've taken an entry at 1.9714 with Initial TP at 1.9665 and stop losson the other side of the high 1.9755.
I have concerns about this move short, the main one being that we're withing shouting distance of the previous high which'll act like a magnet. The other is that the 1.9750 high wasn't exactly set in an emphatic manner, reaching 1.9727 in the morning yesterday and performing a creeping climb setting incremental highs throughout the day indicating support that's not faded away. Nevertheless, I'm in, so lets see how it plays out.

EDIT 1: 10.25am Its taken a while but we have a break of the previous low of 1.9704. New low is 1.9701. The structure is intact but the small price movements so far today are a concern. UK PMI in a few minutes.
EDIT 2: 11.16am Nice break out, currently +45. Moved TP to +100.
EDIT 3: 11.19am Price moved to +65. Stop moved to break even.
EDIT 4: 11.24am Price moved to +90, TP moved to +150.
EDIT 5: 11.31am Price consolidating around +80 and forming what looks to be an ABC zigzag on M1. If it is it should hit/break M1 EMA and then continue short.
EDIT 6: 11.43am getting the trade jitters - anxiously looking for a place/reason to exit on this pullback and preserve profit rather than hold on for +100/+150. This happens quite often and is a behavior I have to challenge and change if I want to improve my trading results. Stop is at b/e so I can't lose on the trade. Lets breathe deep and pretend its an experiment.
EDIT 7: 12.42pm Break of previous low of 1.9617. closing in on +100.
EDIT 8: Closed one of my account trades for +112 at 1.9600. Price has set new low at 1.9593 so will keep the other open, move its stop to +50 and see if +150 can be achieved before being stopped out.
EDIT 9: 4pm Price busted through +150 with gusto. the next support 1.9514 in serious jeopardy. TP moved to old low 1.9434. Why not. currently +172
EDIT 10: Price broke though +200 which was too tempting to ignore as some sort of pullback is inevitable though I don't see any major resistance points and my own bias is short. Exit at 1.9510 for +201 pips. Price hit a low of 1.9499. I can see it holding this or maybe a little lower, pulling back and continuing on its way tomorrow. Very happy with trade as I got antsy on the pullback to +66 and almost exited, but I stuck with my trade plan and discipline and was rewarded.

GBPUSD has done everything I predicted it would yesterday, moving a little lower from the prior low (to 1.9481) retracing overnight (to 1.9530) and continuing on its way today (currently 1.9400). Unfortunately I haven't been able to profit as I had no entry on my system. All was set up to enter at 1.9485 but without a red arrow on the red line to the 1.9530 high I couldn't proceed with the entry without violating my trade style. Last time I did I ended up with a -32 pip loss.

As price has now hit 1.9400 am on the look-out for signs of a a reversal from this point to 1.9300ish (perhaps lower) before rebounding to the 1.9700's or even higher. I've being generous with the range of own low and high reversal predictions as a) the GBPUSD usually gets carried away and overextends and b) I'm not very good at this yet.

The GBPUSD set a new low overnight of 1.9349. There was a trade setup this morning for me at 1.9397 on a weak break of the EMA and I didn't take it. I chickened out.
Fortunately I was given another shot at it on a retrace and entered at 1.9397 as sticking with the plan is the name if the game.

Initial TP is at 1.9455 and I have set the SL at 1.9348 below the previous low though a closer in stop of 1.9373 below the break low is also good and may be prudent in light of my concerns about the trade. I'll probably move the stop to this level if it breaks the current high of 1.9433 but right now I'll give it some room.

EDIT 1: 11.03am Price has hovered around the entry so far, +15 to -12 though as it proceeds I am becoming more confident about the move long and the trade, though this confidence will evaporate at a break of 1.9392. Should it prove out, another entry point would be the break of 1.9434 with a SL at 1.9391.
EDIT 2: 11.33am Moved stops up to break even as we have a change of sentiment/direction of the Triggerlines and price has been able to threaten but not break 1.9419. It'll have to break this point soon to maintain validity of the move. It could still set a new interim low (but > 1.9349) and maintain its structure for a long but if I get stopped at break even I'll take a breakout at 1.9434 if this occurs.
EDIT 3: 11.49am stopped out at break even.
EDIT 4: 12.07pm Break of 1.9392. All bets are off. Could move on to set new low. Cancelled long entry at 1.9434 until we see where this price action bottoms out at.
EDIT 4: 2.39pm Price spikes lower from 1.9385 on 2.30pm news, US unemployment figures causing price to hit 1.9300. If this remains the low then my call of my bias short to 1.9300 looks like genius in hindsight. Though not that much of a genius; I still exited at 1.9510 and wasn't able to find a point to re-enter like I expected I would missing out on these 200 pips. I am now biased long as I think this move short is coming close to exhaustion and sentiment will change to a short term long trend.

I like your detailed analysis on your thoughts. Keep it coming.

The GBPUSD set a new low overnight by 2 pips to 1.9261 and has been rising ever since during the Asian session to a high of 1.9341.
A breakout above this will confirm a long trade, a breakout below 1.9302 will confirm a short.

EDIT 1: 9.35am Break of previous high by a couple of pips. Good, but so far, unconvincing. Entry order at 1.9345 on 1 account triggered. Initial TP 1.9400, initial SL1.9290
EDIT 2: 9.52am 2nd account entry order triggered at 1.9346.
EDIT 3: 10.51am Looks like we're cruisin' for a brusin' on this one. Struggled to maintain what little momentum it had its now breaking lower with triggerlines turnin red. Currently -25. I'll give this space just in case though stops moved up to 1.9300. Stop out at 1.9300 and a set up to go short seem the most likely series of events right now.
EDIT 4: 12.48pm Price set an interim low of 1.9310 and has re-established the long, maintaining the structure. I'd like to see a break of the previous high on this move before I get carried away and confident in this move though.
EDIT 5: 2.15pm Price being unable to break 1.9336 and back to EMA at 1.9320 on a strong move short. SL up to 1.9308 behind previous low. Look for short entry if stopped out.
EDIT 6: 2.30pm 1 accont exit at SL at -40. Entry order short in place at 1.9300
EDIT 7: 2nd account closed for -42. short positions opened.

The GBPUSD's weak attempt at recovering seems to be over, timed to co-incide with the start of the US session.
Short entries taken at break of previous low 1.9306. stop is on the far side of the previous high of 1.9346. Initial TP +50 but keeping 100 pips in mind to move in concert with the EURUSDs move to 1.2900 for it to complete 161.8% retrace of last move.

EDIT 1: 4.36pm recap. Price broke through previous lows and moved steadily to 1.8280, Euro broke to new daily lows but that was the end of it. Price rebounded from there, moving on to breaking previous daily high without a retrace and stopping me out and moving on to 1.9372.

Trade style is well and truly beaten black and blue today, up one side and down the other. Things would've been OK if I had maintained the long with the stop on the far side of previous days low at 1.9261 but that would've thrown my r/r ratio too far out of whack and when the euro broke its low it would've been odds on that the GBP would've also.

Yesterdays trading was thin on volume and price movement.
Price hit 1.9455 early in the European session, around 9am and I took a break short a few hours later at 1.9416.

From there it was all wait and see until the evening when finally started breaking lower. Price hit +50 1am European time (I know I stayed up to monitor) which is into the start of the Asian session. Stops were moved to B/E and TP moved to +100 but it was an optimistic view of things particulary due to the Asian session not usually the one to produce a big moved. Price bottomed out at 1.9342 or around +70 and broke long into the +40s.
I moved one of my TP back to +54 and kept the other at B/E (mainly because I was punchy tired and I forgot to move it). I woke up with +54 on one account and +0 on the other as price had busted long to 1.9421.

I'll hope that my not maintaining intra-day posts/updates is just a glitch and not the start of a trend. I see value in logging my actions to various price movements to identify errors in judgement or lack of discipline in my trading that I can change in the future.

I've taken an entry short at 1.9362 with +50 initial TP and +40 SL on a reconfirmation of the short trend after the interim day high of 1.9421 and a subsequent break short to 1.9360, price broke long to the EMA but it failed and rebroke 1.9360 and to a current low of 19345 a few pips shy of last nights low. 1.9421 has a red, not blue arrow making the move a continuation of yesterdays short move.

3.39pm EDIT 1. Internet access is down for some reason and I am at the local pub with free internet access. I hope to have it back soon but it reminds me of the flexibility of trading which I've done bars in NYC at 1am (geeky I know but it was a quiet Sunday night and I had positions open from the previous Friday that I needed to monitor), cafes in Paris and London and of course from home any damn time I please.
EDIT 2: 4.11pm price broke yesterdays low by 1 pip to 1.9341 maintaining the moves structure.
EDIT 3: 5.15pm Price broke to new lows at 1.9320 and moved to 1.9350. My current thinking is this is a 38.6-50% retracement and it'll move on to new lows.
EDIT4: 7am Jan 11. I set the SL to BE and TP at +50 and left it to run. I've got my internet access back at home and so far price action has been a lot of nothing. It moved to a new low of 1.9315 overnight (a MM line), short of my TP and retraced long to an unconvincing 1.9339. Its breaking back lower through the EMA so there is a case to be made for a price movement short today for the European session perhaps onwards to the low of 1.9261 and beyond. SL will remain at BE and I'll adjust TP if it moves short depending on momentum.
EDIT 5: 7.52am Price failed to go to new lows and has now broken the previous high creating a long trade setup at the breakout of 1.9339. I am still in short but its looking decidedly dicey. Price is 1.9345, +13. I'll see if it comes back to +20 or so, and exit and reenter long.
EDIT 6: Exit positions for +20 and re-entered long

GBP moved to 1.9315 overnight and failed to move further this morning, breaking the EMA long, and then rebreaking that move at 1.9338.
Entered long at this rebreak with SL below the previous low at 1.9315 and Initial TP at +50 at 1.9391.

Its an odd situation which could break either way, with daily ranges on the GBPUSD being low the past couple of days and price action ranging but with the previous low being so close and the SL reasonable, its an acceptable risk to go long at this time. Lets see what develops.

EDIT 1: 8.34am Immediately after entry price moves to an interim low of 1.9321 making a continuation short as viable as a long. Hmmph. Price is back hanging around just short of entry. I'm looking for a new high break of 1.9347 before I'll have any genuine confidence in a long move.
EDIT 2: 10.27am Price into the 1.9360s for +20. I'd like to see this as the start of a major move, a completion of a 78% retracement of the move short from 1.9750 which'll be to 1.9640ish. That'd be a big call and away from my normal strategy but it'll be something to watch. Price into 1.9380s while typing this.
EDIT 3 10.41 price into +60s and 1.9400s. TP moved north to 1.9640. Its likely that I'll exit short of that but its nice to have that as a target. No major retracement on the move so far. It'll come but I've no idea how deep it'll be. Next steps are to break previous highs at 1.9421 then 1.9455.
EDIT 4 12.46pm Price retraced 38.6% from 1.9408 high so far to 1.9372. I hope it ends soon, 50-61.8% max before continuing on its way. Though 78.6% retracement is below my entry I've moved stops to BE in any case as the high of 1.9421 hasn't been pierced making a short setup still structurally sound.
EDIT 5: 1pm WOW! Huge spike on GBP interest rate announcement from 1.9380 to 1.9512 (so far?!!). I dont know what the news was but its pushed it to +156 max, now back to +130.
EDIT 6: 1.03pm BoEngland says inflation is creeping up and has unexpectedly increased rate from 5% to 5.25%. I had discounted the rate decision as anything to watch (an ill-informed decision obviously). I'm glad I was on the right side of that move and maybe its the impetus we need to to get to the 1.9640 region. Next hump to cross it 1.9531 resistance and major MM line.
EDIT 7: 2.54pm Price hit the 1.9531 MM line (1.9535 high) and has been on what looks to be a zigzag formation short from this interim high at 1.9535 to the current low at 1.9459. This low is still < 50% retracement of the move from 1.9372 to 1.9535. 1.9372 looks like the start of the 3 wave. My reservations about all of this is that a lot of this steep pro USD price movement has come since the start of the US session which could signal the trend for the session and may turn this retracement into a route.
EDIT 8 3.23pm. This is not fun at all! From +190 we are now at +100 and between 50-61.8% retracement. I am experimenting with staying in the trade as I am looking for 1.9600s and am prepared to be stopped out for B/E. Normally I would've exited at +150 but the push long makes me stick in the trade and the bias long particularly in light of last weeks move were I got +200 but couldn't find a place to re-enter adn missed the next 200 pips. US unemployment claims at 8.30am EST were positive for the USD. Shall I move stop to 1.9400 which is > 78.6% retracement to preserve some profit?
EDIT 9 4.15pm price has falled to 1.9390s > 78.6%, its fallen pretty fast too without much retracement and almost at the price it was before the spike long. I am feeling a little foolish for not getting out at +150. Stop still at BE. I had giving myself a heads-up of the resistance at 1.9531 and didn't exit. Greed? Not this time, pride is the cause and wanting to better last weeks +200 trade.

I'm still in the long trade from 1.9342. Price had recovered overnight from the steep retracement to a high of 1.9485. Price is now testing the EMA lower at 1.9555, so much so that I am thinking about exiting for +100/+110 and getting in short. I'll need a breakout of 1.9485 soon to stay in.
It'd still be 2 x target so a good trade overall though the decision not to exit at 1.9531 smarts.

EDIT 1: 10.56am Price set a interim low at 1.9348 and I was within a few pips of exiting. I didn't and price rebounded with growing momemtum breaking the old high and so far continuing on to 1.9493 maintaining the correction. Stops are on the far side of 1.1.9448 locking in 100 pips no matter what. TP still at 1.9640. I'd like to see a close above 1.9492, then 1.9512 before hitting and breaking 1.9531.
EDIT 2: 12.10pm Price broke 1.9500. Looking for it to hold above 1.9492 and move strongly to 1.9531 and beyond.
EDIT 3: 1.13pm Price has pushed lower into the 1.9480s since finding resistance at 1.9503. Right now it has the looks of a retracement back to the EMA in teh 1.9470s before going to new highs. US session starting soon and with only relatively minor news ahead (US retail sales, at 8.30am EST) sentiment long on the GBP could maintain and move it to new highs.
EDIT 4 2.31pm Spike lower on US Retail sales news to 1.9454. Ouch, recovered quickly to 1.9470s but is it temporary or the start of the push to new highs?
EDIT 5 2.36pm 6 minutes into new bar and we've got a bull/bear smackdown! from a low of 1.9454 its hit a high of 1.9508 1 pip shy of the previous interim high. I am bullish on the GBP but I don't see those with USD bias calling Uncle just yet. Try the sleeper hold Pound! The upshot is that with the EMA pierced we need a new high before I have continued confidence in the GBP move long.
EDIT 6: 2.59pm This Epic battle is over with GBPs winning with a crushing blow to the face! A lot of too and fro where it was anyone's game but once price hit a new high at 1.9510 it exploded to a new interim high at 1.9551. Its now moved lower as traders take profits but I see this as a retracement. Is it on to 1.9640 and the Elliott Wave traders wandering around highfiving themselves?
EDIT 7: 3.pm 3.20pm Price is consolidating in the 1.9540s after a new 1.9557 high. I am thinking of exiting one of my positions at +200 though the temptation to hold in there is strong locking in some profits would make sense.
EDIT 8 4.04pm Price broke previous high at 1.9557 and moved quickly to 1.9581 and almost +240 though retraced 20 pips so far. Looking to move stop to +150 to lock this in.
EDIT 9: 4.54pm 1.9600 broken. I never would have thought it but its conceivable that 1.9640 might be hit today. I figured it'd take til monday. Current daily range is 1.9427-1.9605, 178 pips.
EDIT 10: 6.27pm Price retraced to 1.9466. I can see it going further and hitting stop at +200 at 1.9540 but I'm in preserving profit mode.

I'm still in the trade since Thursday. GBPUSD ranged over the Asian session since open on Sun night though never broke 1.9570 and never threatened my stop loss.
Current high is 1.9636 and with is +296 odd pips. New target is 1.9716, 78.6% retrace on the last move.
Current stop is 1.9546 but I'll likely trail that manually as the price action progresses.

EDIT 1: 9.40 am. Crap. Forgot it is MLK day in the States. That'll limit US session price action and daily range making the target harder to hit today.
EDIT 2: 11.25am Price has moved to new highs without much of a retrace so far. We could be due. There is a W4 trade short from Fixme from 1.9680-9700 to 1.9540-9500 which I am trying to ignore but it makes technical sense. Current high 1.9667. Maybe time to close one position and ride out the retrace with the other account.
EDIT 3: 11.30am moved stop to +300 on 1 account.
EDIT 4: 11.37am price bumping up against lvl 7 MM line which is a reversal line, at 1.9668. Current high is 1.9668. Exit 1 position for +317.
EDIT 5: 5.26pm Exited 2nd account for +301. Price has pierced EMA and then failed to make new high and now breaking back to the EMA. It could simply be a W2 of a new W3 on to 1.9700 and beyond but if it breaks below 1.9623 then we should be moving into a short trade, a W4 down that Fixme alluded to perhaps.

GBPUSD has failed to make new highs and is showing signs of weakness. If it doesn't change its tune soon I'll look for an entry short in the 1.9620s or below.
My major concern for a potential short trade is the time of day, 5.31pm and that we're moving into a period of low momentum and on a semi-public US holiday. Price is currently hovering just above EMA at 1.9648.

EDIT 1: 10.11am I canceled my entry in the 1.9620s as the US session ended. Price did end up setting a new low at 1.9623 by 1 pip and then rebounded to a new high this morning at 1.9687. Since then it has retested the EMA at 1.9647 and broke back long.
Entry order short is now in place again at 1.9645 with stops above the current high.
EDIT 2: 10.31am Price broke previous highs and now at 1.9707. Entry order deleted.
EDIT 3: 10.45am We've got a serious bull/bear tussle going on. Price spiked to the new high and then proceeded to break the EMA and set a new low of 1.9645 on this move. I am looking to see how this plays out, maybe this new low will hold, maybe break further. I am looking for a retracement above the EMA maybe into the 1.9670s and back short before I put on a short trade entry again as that new high is a big concern.
EDIT 4: 12.07pm Entry short at 1.9645 stops above previous high. Initial TP +50
EDIT 5: Price moved to a interim low of 1.9629 (MM line) and has rebounded since to 1.9681. As I see it this is now the point where the scales will tip one way or the other. A break to a new low will confirm the short while a break of the 1.9704 will give a new impetus for longs. I think that the short trade is the more likely of the two. If it is a W4 short then look for 38.2% to 1.9560 or more.
EDIT 6: 3.53pm Price has broken previous low confirming the short (as well as daily open at 1.9624) and moved quickly to 1.9611. Will continue to track it. I expect some retracements along the way but I am pretty confident it'll go to my initial TP and beyond.
EDIT 7: 4.39pm Price broke into 1.9600s and hit initial target of +50 but is showing that its got legs for more after a retrace. Current low 1.9589 a MMline so its as good a time as any. Stops moved to 1.9530. Debating whether to move stop to BE. Perhaps a fraction too soon.

Forex Factory made some changes over the weekend and I'm sure whatever they did was good for them but time on the posts now don't correspond with the timezone I post in/ my settings and I can't continue to edit my last post.

I'm still in the trade. I moved my stops to BE overnight. Price hit +50 and retraced then ranged through the rest of the afternoon and Asian session. This morning we've got a break long to 1.9637, with spread taken into account, a few pips below my entry and weird set up. I need a short sharp kick to break the previous low at 1.9590 if there is any chance of not getting stopped out at BE.

EDIT 1: 8.32am stopped out at BE. looking at the chart the picture wasn't so weird. I should have got out at the retest and break of 1.9616 for a small win but I was sleeping when it happened and mentally napping when I was awake.
EDIT 2: 3.48pm. Now I fully functional, not only should I have been thinking when I got up and got out of the short trade for a small win, but I should have reversed and taken a long trade at the same time as it was a legitimate long trade set up. Current high is 1.9690 so a +50 trade or more was in the cards. Got to think stop and reverse like I did last week which netted me a small +20 trade followed by the +300 action.

From yesterday's low of 1.9590 which I didn't exit at my initial TP level of +50 (dammit) price has risen steadily to an unconvincing 1.9676. Price has now broken the EMA and if the structure holds it looks like a re-entry short is forming. First looking for a break back towards the high.

EDIT 1: 2.14pm Unfortunately timing is really bad on this move. We have news in 15mins which could pop the price either way, break to a new high after a low on this bar maintaining a long structure or break short, both of which would be equally valid. I have a short order in at 1.9640 which is risky in light of post news chop but SL is at 41 pips so it'll limit any losses. If a new high is set before news I'll delete entry order.
EDIT 2: 2.47pm new high set, short orders deleted. Price was tense post news and went to equal pre-news low. It even went 1 pip past on one account, when my entry was 2 pips below. If I had my entry 1 pip past previous low (as I've done in the past) I would've been stopped out for 41pip loss. Something to think about for future entries.