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Wall Street close watch

  • #181
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:44pm Feb 7, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting cesarnc
How can you take a position with these crazy 50/50 chances?

I think UJ will smash through that 105-106 area eventually and today's surge is just one of several "anvil lifts" that we will continue to do to smash down that support until it breaks down.

But to answer - with patience and a setup
..(and a stubborn belief of where things "need to" go)


I like the whole EURxxx timing...Trichet turns dove, drops the EURUSD, that's cycle one of the USDJPY + EURUSD pump(first push down one, then follow up with the other), EURJPY readies another attack on TL and then 150.75....then the world ends and EJ breaks down severely and we all move into cardboard boxes. See, simple, really...

...alright, I admit, maybe I haven't had food for a while..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #182
  • Feb 11, 2008 9:46am Feb 11, 2008 9:46am
Just to keep busy...

More Bloombeg laughs:

End of world edition..

* Societe Generale to Sell $8 Billion of Stock at 39% Discount After Scandal
* CDO Losses by Banks Driving Credit-Default Swaps to Record, Analysts Say(The Markit iTraxx LevX Senior Index of credit-default swaps on 26 European loans fell to a record of 90.625, according to Bear Stearns Cos. A level below 100 indicates loans are worth less than face value.)
* Stocks Fall in Europe, Asia as UBS, Legrand Decline; U.S. Futures Advance
* America Sneezes, Europe Catches Cold as Inflation, Deficits Defer Recovery
* AIG Declines on `Material Weakness' in Accounting for Credit Default Swaps
* Chavez Threatens `Economic War' Over Exxon Bid to Freeze Venezuelan Assets


vs everything's jolly edition:

* Economy Rebounds Before You Can Say Who Is Next President, Treasuries Show
* Credit Suisse Topples UBS in Earnings as Dougan Dodges `Subprime Bullet'
* Biggs Says U.S. Stocks Near `Important Bottom,' Sees Banks Leading Rebound


Has anyone figured out how and when they capitalize words yet? Seems nouns and predicates(big things!) vs articles(small things!) so far..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #183
  • Feb 14, 2008 2:00pm Feb 14, 2008 2:00pm
Taken from
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...e20080214a.htm


Quote
To date, inflation expectations appear to have remained reasonably well anchored, but any tendency of inflation expectations to become unmoored or for the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility to be eroded could greatly complicate the task of sustaining price stability and reduce the central bank's policy flexibility to counter shortfalls in growth in the future. Accordingly, in the months ahead we will be closely monitoring inflation expectations and the inflation situation more generally.
So, no more free syringes with market heroin for the permabulls?

Or what's other folks' take on this? Isn't this one big warning flag for the "cut em if you got em" camp?

Not that all of this isn't 100% ridiculous to say out loud in the light of recent events, i.e. words vs actions, but, well, you know..

The last bit of his speech especially seem more wishful thinking than anything
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #184
  • Feb 14, 2008 2:49pm Feb 14, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Taken from
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...e20080214a.htm


So, no more free syringes with market heroin for the permabulls?

Or what's other folks' take on this? Isn't this one big warning flag for the "cut em if you got em" camp?

Not that all of this isn't 100% ridiculous to say out loud in the light of recent events, i.e. words vs actions, but, well, you know..

The last bit of his speech especially seem more wishful thinking than anything
SL YOU ARE A PISSA! YOU CRACK ME UP.... THEY WILL ALWAYS RUN IT UP TO GET THE SUCKERS TO BUY AT THE TOP BEFORE THE CRASH HAPPENS... THEY SAY ALL KINDS OF bs TO GET INVESTORS IN AT THE TOPS..... I love your cynacism.... i m with u! the greddy bastards want the rest of our 401 ks that the idiot pension fund managers keep buying and buying more and more equities.... ridiculous.... inflation! is this a joke?? we have a little rally and he starts talinkg inflation???? how absurd

how about RECESSION DELAYED more like it! or how can we avoid a depression???? this is the reality of what he is thinking.....

why must our own leaders insist on lying to us? and keep the bubbles going far too long>? I don't get it????

what a joke! this is why i dont bother with cnbc or news on a daily basis.... how much crap they talk! lets see a month long rally then we can talk inflation.... sheesh.... dow probably run up a bit more and then to be at 11,100 soon ... just think of all the profit the big boys will make on the fall...... ridiculousness
  • #185
  • Edited 4:22pm Feb 14, 2008 4:04pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Taken from
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...e20080214a.htm


So, no more free syringes with market heroin for the permabulls?

Or what's other folks' take on this? Isn't this one big warning flag for the "cut em if you got em" camp?

Not that all of this isn't 100% ridiculous to say out loud in the light of recent events, i.e. words vs actions, but, well, you know..

The last bit of his speech especially seem more wishful thinking than anything
I like that phrase... Permabulls. It's like permafrost... LOL

You have that right indeed. Take a look at this rally of late in all the major indexes, the volume is very light.. That ought to throw up some red flags for the Dow Theorists one would think...
  • #186
  • Edited 5:19pm Feb 14, 2008 4:12pm | Edited 5:19pm
* Chavez Threatens `Economic War' Over Exxon Bid to Freeze Venezuelan Assets

In regards to the Exxon thing.. Exxon has more cash in the bank, I think it's 32Billion than Venezuela's entire output of stinky crude. BTW The USA is the only country setup for refining that thick goop. LOL

In addition to that. Venezuela has to sell the stuff to some one and so it really causes no disruption at all.
  • #187
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:54am Feb 15, 2008 7:54am
Chavez vs USA. Which one is the junkie and which one is truly the dealer.

He needs us far more than we need him.

Venezuela has great people and many other natural resources - besides crude. It is a shame that they have a "banana republic" type leader presently. One day he will be voted out of office by the point of a rifle.
  • #188
  • Feb 22, 2008 4:11pm Feb 22, 2008 4:11pm
impressive rally at the close today, but the charts still look like they are going to have a meltdown any day now LOL.
Relax and be happy.
  • #189
  • Edited 9:30pm Feb 22, 2008 9:15pm | Edited 9:30pm
Quoting merlin
impressive rally at the close today, but the charts still look like they are going to have a meltdown any day now LOL.
I KNOW!! I was so unhappy to see the rally!!! Call me a dirty bear but the short setups on the EJ and UJ were BEAUTIFUL and it utterly RUINED them *tears*. I left the trades open and now I am at a loss. Well not reaaaally at a loss, just kinda feelin a little lossy ya know? Like a little jiggly in the cojones? Hot sand sorta thing? Aw never mind - here's the chart you naughty monkeys. chances for a meltdown next coupla weeks given the highlighted price action are <scratch head> roughly 73.7%

PS: I'm totally serious btw. 73.7%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: shot.gif Size: 26 KB
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #190
  • Feb 23, 2008 4:13am Feb 23, 2008 4:13am
Quoting merlin
impressive rally at the close today, but the charts still look like they are going to have a meltdown any day now LOL.
Indeed... I even quit posting here because Wall Street has become a betting house of some sort. Fundamentals, inflation,, GDP, rate cuts, NFP - forget about them. The real 200 points movers are the 5-min-ago headlines.

Yesterday NYC started on the rumours those insurers' downgrade was iminent. Ended the day with a "bailout" news. Go trade this man LOL
  • #191
  • Feb 23, 2008 11:35pm Feb 23, 2008 11:35pm
Quoting cesarnc
Indeed... I even quit posting here because Wall Street has become a betting house of some sort. Fundamentals, inflation,, GDP, rate cuts, NFP - forget about them. The real 200 points movers are the 5-min-ago headlines.

Yesterday NYC started on the rumours those insurers' downgrade was iminent. Ended the day with a "bailout" news. Go trade this man LOL
YOU DON'T!!!!!!!!!!!

HOLLA
  • #192
  • Feb 25, 2008 12:12pm Feb 25, 2008 12:12pm
Do you guys think Dow has already put a bottom for the year?

More and more I think yes. Maybe this year won't see that big gains, but doesn't feel like going down under anymore...

If true, yen repatriation ends in March 31st, comments says could be over in 2 weeks. Coupled with stable to positive stock market, calls for carry trades redemption.

I already placed trades in GJ 209ish assuming bottom is put for the year. Could be wrong, but til then, rollover goes on feeding me crumbs in a daily basis...
  • #193
  • Feb 25, 2008 12:15pm Feb 25, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting Plutonite
just kinda feelin a little lossy ya know? Like a little jiggly in the cojones? Hot sand sorta thing? Aw never mind - here's the chart you naughty monkeys. chances for a meltdown next coupla weeks given the highlighted price action are <scratch head> roughly 73.7%
drugs and trading dont mix you dirty bear LOLOL
Relax and be happy.
  • #194
  • Feb 25, 2008 12:22pm Feb 25, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting cesarnc
Do you guys think Dow has already put a bottom for the year?
i dont know man...speaking strictly by the fundamentals, i can definitely see the case for no new lows. i mean the sentiment on the US economy is pretty damn bad right now, and thats when bottoms are put in. the housing market still has some havoc to reek, but most of that is apparent and priced in. plus we have obama coming in as president and that could definitely shift consumer attitudes. basically, things bad and can only get better.

but looking at the charts, that certainly doesnt look like the year's bottom to me. the price action looks weak, and i the only trend i can see is to the downside.

i am not playing this right now, but if i were i would be going with the charts
Relax and be happy.
  • #195
  • Feb 25, 2008 12:26pm Feb 25, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting merlin
i dont know man...speaking strictly by the fundamentals, i can definetely see the case for no new lows. i mean the sentiment on the US economy is pretty damn bad right now, and thats when bottoms are put in. the housing market still has some havoc to reek, but most of that is apparent and priced in. plus we have obama coming in as presidnet and that could definetely shift consumer attitudes. basically, things bad and can only get better.

but looking at the charts, that certainly doesnt look like the year's bottom to me. the price action looks weak, and i the only trend i can see is to the downside.

i am not playing this right now, but if i were i would be going with the charts
My point is, 12K-ish is not that low level at all. Maybe not the resumption of the furious uptrend, maybe some ranging for a while (1999 - 2002 style) with not necessarily "down trend" or "bear market", know what I mean?
  • #196
  • Feb 25, 2008 12:29pm Feb 25, 2008 12:29pm
well if you are asking if i think we will range i have to say no. times are too turbulent to range right now. this sucker is going up or down

btw, do you know how to make a bet that the market will range?
Relax and be happy.
  • #197
  • Feb 25, 2008 12:42pm Feb 25, 2008 12:42pm
Quoting merlin
well if you are asking if i think we will range i have to say no. times are too turbulent to range right now. this sucker is going up or down

btw, do you know how to make a bet that the market will range?
I'm not betting the market is going to range. I'm betting the bottom is put for the year. Further roller coaster-like weeks? For sure. Resumption of the uptrend? Hard to tell. It would demand the whole world to get back to "life is beautiful" mindset, what is virtually impossible with the recent headlines and economic data.

Just came a warning of Fitch Ratings (who the hell?) that large banks can face lower ratings. Stock market is back to flat.

There is no way life can be beautiful with that kind of crap popping twice a week.
  • #198
  • Feb 25, 2008 12:49pm Feb 25, 2008 12:49pm
Quoting merlin
well if you are asking if i think we will range i have to say no. times are too turbulent to range right now. this sucker is going up or down

btw, do you know how to make a bet that the market will range?
With options.
  • #199
  • Feb 25, 2008 1:44pm Feb 25, 2008 1:44pm
Wall Street Surges As Standard & Poor's Reaffirms Ambac and MBIA Ratings

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street bolted higher Monday after Standard & Poor's affirmed its ratings for Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., raising hopes that troubled bond insurers will emerge from the credit market crisis on solid footing.

But is is sustainable for more than the next 2 minutes.
  • #200
  • Feb 25, 2008 2:38pm Feb 25, 2008 2:38pm
Above 12.5K, next big level is 12.7K. Truckload of data this week. Hopefully they will come positive as to give us 1 direction only for the week.
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