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  • #3,201
  • Feb 23, 2008 1:55pm Feb 23, 2008 1:55pm
Following David's post here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=71674 I thought I'd update this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1777029 with an adjustment I've incorporated since trading a much larger account...

OK, I'll try and sum up how I trade GBPJPY and the rules I apply....

Firstly the rules...

1. I will hold a maximum of 10 positions at any one time. Update - maximum of 5 trades open in any one direction.
2. Each position has a t/p of 50 pips and a s/l of 1000 pips.
3. Position size is 0.2% of account balance. So, each winning trade equates to a 0.1% profit and each losing trade equates to a 2% loss.
4. All trades are left to hit their s/l or t/p unless a trade is in profit at New York close, in which case it is closed manually.

OK, that was the easy part. From here on in it is more difficult to explain because my method is discretionary. I still work full-time so basically miss virtually all the London session unless I'm on holiday.

Since I started trading I've used almost exclusively the daily charts and that is where we begin. As I study the daily chart I'm asking myself...

Are we ranging? - if so where are the tops and bottoms of the range?
Are we trending? - if so, where are the likely support, resistence areas where we may consolidate or pull-back?
Have we just broken through an established range? If so, where should the price head towards before pausing again?
I trade using candlesticks and am also looking for classic reversal signs - you may know these as pin bars - check james16 thread for more info.

I then look at the 4 hour charts downwards and go through the same process which gives me a shorter term outlook on things but always keeping the longer term in mind.

Entries are actually taken from the 5 minute charts, again taking the overall bias in mind. I try not to put all my eggs in one basket so to speak - if I'm short biased doesn't mean I'll necesarily be holding 10 short positions. Update - see point 1 above. By holding only 5 positions at any time either long or short, this prevents unnecessary risk if we end up on the wrong side of the market. Say for example the market is rising and I'm holding 5 short positions already, I cannot open any further short positions until either 1) The market reverses and starts to clear out an existing short, or 2) One of the shorts is stopped out and therefore frees up a position. In a wide range the method works extremely well. When the market breaks out and starts to trend it becomes more tricky but the above rule forces me to trade with the trend until it tells me otherwise. A lot of my entries are by no means perfect but that really doesn't matter. As with all methods it's the discipline of sticking with the plan.

With the risk/reward ratio being so poor (in some people's eyes), I need to profit 20 trades out of 21 to break even. As some of you know, I started a version of this method in September and have been pretty successful thus far.

November & December has brought in a more conservative method but still over 200 consecutive profitable trades. I will have stop losses hit at some point but overall I believe I can be consistently profitable. The important thing for me is not to have more than 1 or 2 positions 'stranded' at the edge of a range.

Money management is incredibly important as is faith in the system. I have seen first hand people trying to trade my system and either disregard position size (sometimes increasing tenfold) or bailing out of trades at -200, -500 pips and therefore taking an unecessary loss.

I know this won't answer all your questions and because I'm using my own discretion for entries that would be impossible. However, I hope this has given you something to think about by looking at this business from a slightly different angle.

Kind regards
Steve

I'll post a full update at the end of this month but as of today results are as follows.

My own live account since Nov 1st 2007

Net Pip gain (after losses) 13024 pips
Current unrealised drawdown 2923 pips
Number of trades 343
Winning trades 338
Losing trades 5
98.54% success rate

My managed account (opened 16th Jan 2008)

Here, I don't record in pips but $

Start Balance $103529
Current Balance $124439
Account Value $108595
Number of trades 107
Winning trades 107
Losing Trades 0
100% success rate

So, on the managed account I'm currently up around 4% including unrealised drawdown but the important thing to me is that I've banked enough to cover my worst case scenario of 5 stop losses being hit. Of course I'll continue to bank pips before that happens as we're currently still well within the 204 to 214 range.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #3,202
  • Feb 23, 2008 1:58pm Feb 23, 2008 1:58pm
LOL David - thanks for your post

As you'll see I've just updated that post so it may be prudent to change the link in your thread. BTW, have you ever thought of writing a book?

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting hanover

Hi Steve,

I was going to try to read your journal, but it’s going to take an awfully loooooong time!!

Anyway, I read post #3052, to get a handle on your method, and I want you to know that you’ve helped revolutionize my understanding of why forex trading methods are profitable. Many, many thanks. (Hope you don't mind my interrupting your journal to tell you this).

I’ve posted my new-found conclusions here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=71674
I hope that this helps you better understand why your system – despite flouting textbook RR – can be, and indeed has been, profitable.

IMHO, here is the source of your potential "edge":
"Are we ranging? - if so where are the tops and bottoms of the range?
Are we trending? - if so, where are the likely support, resistence areas where we may consolidate or pull-back?
Have we just broken through an established range? If so, where should the price head towards before pausing again?
I trade using candlesticks and am also looking for classic reversal signs - you may know these as pin bars - check james16 thread for more info.

I then look at the 4 hour charts downwards and go through the same process which gives me a shorter term outlook on things but always keeping the longer term in mind."

I agree that the GBPJPY is the best pair to trade. Everything else being equal, it offers the largest moves to overcome that underestimated enemy – the spread cost.

Best wishes,
David
  • #3,203
  • Edited 1:12pm Feb 24, 2008 6:20am | Edited 1:12pm
Thanks, as always, Steve for your considered replies. It looks like there are several more people on this forum with a similar approach, particularly fxtitan.

Your published results are very interesting, you have 300+ trades on your own account, so now we can have a little fun with the calculator:

From Van Tharp:

Expectancy = (PW * AW) less (PL * AL)

where

PW is the probability of a winning trade
PL is the probability of a losing trade
AW refers to the average gain (win)
AL refers to the average loss

As you said, your PW is 338/343 = 98.5% which makes PL = 1.5%. For the AW & AL, since they're fixed by design, we could use either pips (50 and 1000 respectively) or percentages (0.1% and 2% respectively).

So plugging in the numbers would give:

Expectancy = (98.5%*50) - (1.5%*1000) = 34.25 pips per trade or
Expectancy = (98.5%*0.1%) - (1.5%*2%) = 0.0685% increase on current account bal per trade

In reality we would have to factor in transaction costs, typically 8 pip round-trip for the GBP/JPY in your case, So for example that would mean we need a 58 pip take profit and a 1008 pip stop loss, so that represents 16% extra cost for winning trades and 0.8% extra cost for losing trades.

So that makes it (after costs):

Expectancy = (98.5%*50)/116% - 100.8%(1.5%*1000) = 27.3 pips per trade or
Expectancy = (98.5%*0.1%)/116% - 100.8%(1.5%*2%) = 0.0547% increase on current account bal per trade

So you can see that we've lost about 7 pips or 0.015% per trade.

Applying this to your account, you've made 343 trades, so that should make your expected net pip gain:

343 * 27.3 approx 9,360 pips (after costs and if all unrealised profits/losses were closed).

Currenly your equity is 13,024 - 2.923 approx 10,100 pips, making a difference of around 740. So you're currently that much up on average, and would expect to lose that amount if these trades were left open to run their course and no new positions were opened.

I hope I've calculated these numbers correctly, if not then others please feel free to correct.


Quote
My own live account since Nov 1st 2007

Net Pip gain (after losses) 13024 pips
Current unrealised drawdown 2923 pips
Number of trades 343
Winning trades 338
Losing trades 5
98.54% success rate

My managed account (opened 16th Jan 2008)

Here, I don't record in pips but $

Start Balance $103529
Current Balance $124439
Account Value $108595
Number of trades 107
Winning trades 107
Losing Trades 0
100% success rate
  • #3,204
  • Feb 24, 2008 7:03am Feb 24, 2008 7:03am
Thanks for that Iso!

I'm sure you have your numbers spot on - just to say on my own account I get the 8 pip spread, however on the managed account through SaxoBank I get a 5 pip spread typically which has proved an advantage.

Hope you're enjoying a relaxing weekend.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Isotonic
Thanks, as always, Steve for your considered replies. It looks like there are several more people on this forum with a similar approach, particularly fxtitan.

Your published results are very interesting, you have 300+ trades on your own account, so now we can have a little fun with the calculator:

From Van Tharp:

Expectancy = (PW * AW) less (PL * AL)

where

PW is the probability of a winning trade
PL is the probability of a losing trade
AW refers to the average gain (win)
AL refers to the average loss

As you said, your PW is 338/343 = 98.5% which makes PL = 1.5%. For the AW & AL, since they're fixed by design, we could use either pips (50 and 1000 respectively) or percentages (0.1% and 2% respectively).

So plugging in the numbers would give:

Expectancy = (98.5%*50) - (1.5%*1000) = 34.25 pips per trade or
Expectancy = (98.5%*0.1%) - (1.5%*2%) = 0.0685% increase on current account bal per trade

In reality we would have to factor in transaction costs, typically 8 pip round-trip for the GBP/JPY in your case, So for example that would mean we need a 58 pip take profit and a 1008 pip stop loss, so that represents 16% extra cost for winning trades (which we subtract) and 0.8% extra cost for losing trades (which we add).

So that makes it (after costs):

Expectancy = 84%(98.5%*50) - 100.8%(1.5%*1000) = 26.25 pips per trade or
Expectancy = 84%(98.5%*0.1%) - 100.8%(1.5%*2%) = 0.0525% increase on current account bal per trade

So you can see that we've lost 8 pips or 0.016% per trade.

Applying this to your account, you've made 343 trades, so that should make your expected net pip gain:

343 * 26.25 approx 9,000 pips (after costs and if all unrealised profits/losses were closed).

Currenly your equity is 13,024 - 2.923 approx 10,100 pips, making a difference of around 1,100. So you're currently that much up on average, and would expect to lose that amount if these trades were left open to run their course and no new positions were opened.

For my own account, assuming your win/lose probabilities, then I get something like an expectancy of 25.25 pips per trade, given a 9 pip spread on IBFX. So I calculated if closed all my trades, that would give me around 26 trades representing $750 profit.

Given my expectancy of 25 then that should mean I should expect, on average for 26 trades is -

25.25 * 26 / 0.92 (to get $ pip for yen pair) = $713, so I'm currently $37 bucks better off than the averages at the moment.

I hope I've calculated these numbers correctly, if not then others please feel free to correct.
  • #3,205
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:13am Feb 24, 2008 9:13am
Quoting Isotonic
Thanks, as always, Steve for your considered replies. It looks like there are several more people on this forum with a similar approach, particularly fxtitan.

Your published results are very interesting, you have 300+ trades on your own account, so now we can have a little fun with the calculator:

From Van Tharp:

Expectancy = (PW * AW) less (PL * AL)

where

PW is the probability of a winning trade
PL is the probability of a losing trade
AW refers to the average gain (win)
AL refers to the average loss

As you said, your PW is 338/343 = 98.5% which makes PL = 1.5%. For the AW & AL, since they're fixed by design, we could use either pips (50 and 1000 respectively) or percentages (0.1% and 2% respectively).

So plugging in the numbers would give:

Expectancy = (98.5%*50) - (1.5%*1000) = 34.25 pips per trade or
Expectancy = (98.5%*0.1%) - (1.5%*2%) = 0.0685% increase on current account bal per trade

In reality we would have to factor in transaction costs, typically 8 pip round-trip for the GBP/JPY in your case, So for example that would mean we need a 58 pip take profit and a 1008 pip stop loss, so that represents 16% extra cost for winning trades (which we subtract) and 0.8% extra cost for losing trades (which we add).

So that makes it (after costs):

Expectancy = 84%(98.5%*50) - 100.8%(1.5%*1000) = 26.25 pips per trade or
Expectancy = 84%(98.5%*0.1%) - 100.8%(1.5%*2%) = 0.0525% increase on current account bal per trade

So you can see that we've lost 8 pips or 0.016% per trade.

Applying this to your account, you've made 343 trades, so that should make your expected net pip gain:

343 * 26.25 approx 9,000 pips (after costs and if all unrealised profits/losses were closed).

Currenly your equity is 13,024 - 2.923 approx 10,100 pips, making a difference of around 1,100. So you're currently that much up on average, and would expect to lose that amount if these trades were left open to run their course and no new positions were opened.

For my own account, assuming your win/lose probabilities, then I get something like an expectancy of 25.25 pips per trade, given a 9 pip spread on IBFX. So I calculated if closed all my trades, that would give me around 26 trades representing $750 profit.

Given my expectancy of 25 then that should mean I should expect, on average for 26 trades is -

25.25 * 26 / 0.92 (to get $ pip for yen pair) = $713, so I'm currently $37 bucks better off than the averages at the moment.

I hope I've calculated these numbers correctly, if not then others please feel free to correct.
hey iso

why are you including in the spread in the expectancy calculation? I think the equation itself includes our net winnings/losings which already take into account the spreads.
i.e if you have a winning trade and you close it for profit, you already overcome the spread and whatever is net is your pips/profit. Riightt?? so there's no need to reintroduce it into the calculations
  • #3,206
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:18am Feb 24, 2008 9:18am
See Iso, I told you your calculations were wrong :

I just know it works and has continued to work for some time and that's really all I'm worried about.

Thanks hilmy for the clarification & good to see you around.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting hilmy83
hey iso

why are you including in the spread in the expectancy calculation? I think the equation itself includes our net winnings/losings which already take into account the spreads.
i.e if you have a winning trade and you close it for profit, you already overcome the spread and whatever is net is your pips/profit. Riightt?? so there's no need to reintroduce it into the calculations
  • #3,207
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:30am Feb 24, 2008 9:30am
Quoting steviet
See Iso, I told you your calculations were wrong :

I just know it works and has continued to work for some time and that's really all I'm worried about.

Thanks hilmy for the clarification & good to see you around.

Kind Regards
Steve
sup steve,

well i thought that's how Van tharp did it. I don't remember him including any transaction cost in that calculation (maybe i should check again ).

But you definitely have an edge since you have a very high success rate even though the R:R is not the norm. Although i think the expectancy equation is most suitable for pure mechanical systems.

Since your system is discretionary to some extent, you pretty much have to trade it like a robot. Because i know being a dicretionary trader myself sometimes would have me avoid some profitable trades and take on losing trades .
  • #3,208
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:37am Feb 24, 2008 9:37am
Well, it's great to see us 'older newbies' having some success and now trading OPM.

Just had a quick peek at your site - very impressive

You're right about the discretion within my method. The rules are set in stone but otherwise it's up to the individual to make a success of it.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting hilmy83
sup steve,

well i thought that's how Van tharp did it. I don't remember him including any transaction cost in that calculation (maybe i should check again ).

But you definitely have an edge since you have a very high success rate even though the R:R is not the norm. Although i think the expectancy equation is most suitable for pure mechanical systems.

Since your system is discretionary to some extent, you pretty much have to trade it like a robot. Because i know being a dicretionary trader myself sometimes would have me avoid some profitable trades and take on losing trades .
  • #3,209
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:45am Feb 24, 2008 9:45am
Quoting steviet
Well, it's great to see us 'older newbies' having some success and now trading OPM.

Just had a quick peek at your site - very impressive

You're right about the discretion within my method. The rules are set in stone but otherwise it's up to the individual to make a success of it.

Kind Regards
Steve
thanks man. I thought I make guinea pigs out of my close associates : by trading for them. Newbies we were! I reminisce those days when we started our journals trying to find out what will work for us...sigh

Hopefully we can both write stories about our journey from forexfactory to forex legends Keep it up! I'm right behind you!
  • #3,210
  • Feb 24, 2008 12:15pm Feb 24, 2008 12:15pm
what a great thread!


its so inspirering that i will start to demo it tomorrow. some small adjustments i do to make it more fit to my needs and i would be thankfull if you comment it if you see some problems out of your experience.

1. i would like to trade the eur/jpy because of spreadcost and to much respect for the monster gbp/jpy. e-y sems to range a litle more. i am in the euro-zone and i think its beter to deal with euro over long distance than with pound-dollar which are loosing both value against the euro. also interestrate on shorts is much higher on the g-y.

2. tp will be 40p, sl 800 or 1000 ( not sure about that)

3. (and that im not sure to..) to make not fixed tp but look out on fibonacci levels and strong S/R levels for targets. so the tp could be more or less than 40pips. this point would be the most change from your system, and i dont want to change a winning system to much...maybe i should test that in an extra account.

i am in the same situation with a dayjob. the plan is to set orders between 8-9 gmt+1, after work at around 18.00 and later check on NY closing.

some more questions:
from my readings here i recon you are in england? at what times you check your trades?
and i dont know if do market orders or do you set limit buys and then let it go?


thank you steve
  • #3,211
  • Feb 24, 2008 12:47pm Feb 24, 2008 12:47pm
Hi there

By all means test it on a demo account for a while to get used to the method. EURJPY is not quite as volatile as GBPJPY so maybe a 40 pip t/p and 800 pip s/l would be about right.

As far as checking trades is concerned, I'm normally able to pop home at lunchtime as NY is starting and I don't tend to sleep much anyway so catch some of the Asian session as well as the end of NY.

All my orders are market orders. Good luck with your testing over the coming weeks/months

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting alpiner
what a great thread!


its so inspirering that i will start to demo it tomorrow. some small adjustments i do to make it more fit to my needs and i would be thankfull if you comment it if you see some problems out of your experience.

1. i would like to trade the eur/jpy because of spreadcost and to much respect for the monster gbp/jpy. e-y sems to range a litle more. i am in the euro-zone and i think its beter to deal with euro over long distance than with pound-dollar which are loosing both value against the euro. also interestrate on shorts is much higher on the g-y.

2. tp will be 40p, sl 800 or 1000 ( not sure about that)

3. (and that im not sure to..) to make not fixed tp but look out on fibonacci levels and strong S/R levels for targets. so the tp could be more or less than 40pips. this point would be the most change from your system, and i dont want to change a winning system to much...maybe i should test that in an extra account.

i am in the same situation with a dayjob. the plan is to set orders between 8-9 gmt+1, after work at around 18.00 and later check on NY closing.

some more questions:
from my readings here i recon you are in england? at what times you check your trades?
and i dont know if do market orders or do you set limit buys and then let it go?


thank you steve
  • #3,212
  • Edited 1:16pm Feb 24, 2008 1:04pm | Edited 1:16pm
hi hilmy,

i think the classic equation doesn't actually assume any costs, you have to allow for it either by adjusting for execution costs (ie the spread) and/or deducting commissions afterwards.

for example, transaction costs is the 3rd variable out of four that van tharp uses to calculate overall expectancy, rather than just a theoretical number.

actually i think i've miscalculated the costs (doh!) and will have to edit the post before the 24h limit expires (oh to be a mod again!)

Quoting hilmy83
hey iso

why are you including in the spread in the expectancy calculation? I think the equation itself includes our net winnings/losings which already take into account the spreads.
i.e if you have a winning trade and you close it for profit, you already overcome the spread and whatever is net is your pips/profit. Riightt?? so there's no need to reintroduce it into the calculations
  • #3,213
  • Feb 24, 2008 10:52pm Feb 24, 2008 10:52pm
Now that I'm in the office and have all the time in the world, I'll post what I've been thinking since I chanced upon this thread.

I've been trading my account with no stop losses and take profit, and my results are somewhere like yours steve!

What I'm trying to say is that, the most important factor in your trading method is that you have no stop losses, and you trade super small. Not only that, you are now sitting fine with paper losses and can even think straight and go long when your shorts are losing.

The most powerful aspect in your method is not the 1000 SL and 50 TP, rather, its the concepts of money management (position sizing) and the ability to stand with your decisions and handle paper losses well. With courage you are able to hang on to your positions and know that eventually the market will come back.

What I've read from you has greatly enhanced my trading steve, I've been trading my account with no stop losses and take profit, and my results are somewhere like yours steve, thanks a bunch.
  • #3,214
  • Feb 25, 2008 5:39pm Feb 25, 2008 5:39pm
Thanks again Steve for all your help and tips. What I really like is that this method is unconventional but still makes sense. It also allows me to try all kinds of entries (which is kind of fun coz at the end of the day entries don't really matter).

Began demoing yesterday with a $5000 mini account trading 0.16 lots per trade. I'm risking 3% per trade (I think Scott mentioned using this) and have since had 9 winners of tp 50 each and no realized losses! Must say that about a third of the entries werent at market.

Even without compounding, I calculated that an average of 6 winners a day would equate to around a 4% increase on my account a week. Fantastic!
  • #3,215
  • Feb 25, 2008 11:43pm Feb 25, 2008 11:43pm
That's quite OK

Yup, certainly have a play around with it on demo until you're happy.

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting Trumpcard
Thanks again Steve for all your help and tips. What I really like is that this method is unconventional but still makes sense. It also allows me to try all kinds of entries (which is kind of fun coz at the end of the day entries don't really matter).

Began demoing yesterday with a $5000 mini account trading 0.16 lots per trade. I'm risking 3% per trade (I think Scott mentioned using this) and have since had 9 winners of tp 50 each and no realized losses! Must say that about a third of the entries werent at market.

Even without compounding, I calculated that an average of 6 winners a day would equate to around a 4% increase on my account a week. Fantastic!
  • #3,216
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:05am Feb 26, 2008 12:05am
just for fun my first day (24hours) experience with this strategy...

after a litle ranging on, the eur/yen decided to break out of the last week range. and after 3 TPs, i had to leave one short out there which is now on minus 100pips...i missed the biggest uptrend because i was on the way to work.. made some more TPs total 180 pips.

so far i had a great time and never was more relaxed at trading. its like a funny pip hunt sitting behind a bush with a big shotgun, waiting that my dogs drive the pips along my direction. turnaround? no problem some TP is waiting for you, hehe ... but good feeling for TA is a good start. i dont want to set my trades like random. so i trade with the trend and set targets on resistance and fibonacci retracements, that targets was hit nearly exact to the pip and than turned. i do limit orders too, all positions cleared out themself accept the most far out short...everything to good to be true and im waiting for a big hammer to drop on me. we will see....
  • #3,217
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:42am Feb 26, 2008 12:42am
Hi Alpiner,

Yes, the first few days you should pick up a fair few pips but I think what you said there hits the nail on the head.

I feel very relaxed when trading - there's no panic if an entry is missed and no worry about a stop loss being hit within minutes or hours of a trade being placed.

Of course it does bring a different set of challenges but it can be done long term as long as you realise that you will take the odd losing trade along the way. Every system has a cost and it's how you react to it that will determine your success.

Great start - well done

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting alpiner
just for fun my first day (24hours) experience with this strategy...

after a litle ranging on, the eur/yen decided to break out of the last week range. and after 3 TPs, i had to leave one short out there which is now on minus 100pips...i missed the biggest uptrend because i was on the way to work.. made some more TPs total 180 pips.

so far i had a great time and never was more relaxed at trading. its like a funny pip hunt sitting behind a bush with a big shotgun, waiting that my dogs drive the pips along my direction. turnaround? no problem some TP is waiting for you, hehe ... but good feeling for TA is a good start. i dont want to set my trades like random. so i trade with the trend and set targets on resistance and fibonacci retracements, that targets was hit nearly exact to the pip and than turned. i do limit orders too, all positions cleared out themself accept the most far out short...everything to good to be true and im waiting for a big hammer to drop on me. we will see....
  • #3,218
  • Feb 26, 2008 5:21am Feb 26, 2008 5:21am
Just started demoing daily. Really nice
  • #3,219
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:06am Feb 29, 2008 3:06am
Quoting Michael81
Just started demoing daily. Really nice
I will start a demo ....too
  • #3,220
  • Feb 29, 2008 12:54pm Feb 29, 2008 12:54pm
as i expected things getting more tougher later, especialy now with the big drawdown on the euro-yen. the fundamental question: are we in a longer up or downtrend is realy hard to answer. all my shorts that i worry about in my last post got hit their targets. so now my longs are my new problemchilds...fibonaccis realy helped me to find good targetzones and to avoid stranded orders in the wrong direction. but it will hapen...

steve i wonder one thing. what do you think is more important to your system: the fact that most of the time the market turns and hit the target? or that your account grow overtime enough to take the 1000p stop? in case the second answer is right my system could fail. i do 1-2 trades a day, today nothing. maybe the eur-yen is to slow for this system. but its to early to resume, im in the market 4 days.
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