Super Carry Trade Trading System | Page 7 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Carry trade vs carry trader 3 replies

Super Carry Trading Strategy - Expert Advisor 22 replies

long term carry trade system? 3 replies

Gamblers carry trade system 5 replies

Attachments: Super Carry Trade Trading System
Exit Attachments

Super Carry Trade Trading System

  • #121
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:04am Feb 21, 2008 11:04am
Hey Xaron! Great to see you. I'm "mikejody" over at Oanda. I have appreciated your methods there, and am glad to see you adapting this one.

Quoting Xaron
Thanks dreamliner, that's almost the same I do for my carry trading. But thanks for your adaptions!

I've just added this to my grid trading thread there at Oanda. My starting balance is €10,000, so I use 188 units currently. This is a strategy which works only at Oanda due to the low position sizes...

Regards - Xaron
  • #122
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:08am Feb 21, 2008 11:08am
Qman, you have an amazing ability to understand and apply. Very good, all is correct. The only suggestion I would have is to reverse numbers 1 and 2 below. Instead make it like this:

1. Close all open and pending orders ... AND ...
2. Open a new base position ... AND...
3. Establish a new grid of buy stop orders with 10 pip TP from the confirmed entry price of your new base position.

That's it, exactly.

Quoting Qman
Let me give #6 a try here, and Dreamliner can tell me if I've got it wrong.

You are in a downtrend and have some number of open positions creating an average entry price. You also have a (large) number of buy stop orders between your last entry, going all the way up in 10 pip increments, to the last one you placed with your initial entry. Price has been trending down, but now reverses and begins heading back to your Average price. Along the way, it crosses the price of your last entry, and you begin to collect the 10 pip buy stops, each of them closing at a 10 pip profit as price advances. At some point, price advances to and actually crosses the Average price. At that point, you should:

1. Open a new base position ... AND...
2. Close all open and pending orders ... AND ...
3. Establish a new grid of buy stop orders with 10 pip TP from the confirmed entry price of your new base position.

That is my understanding. In a fast moving market I can see where things could get a bit dicey getting all of that work done as price is speeding on up. There is a chance for a few oddly filled orders, but I don't think it is so much to concern ourselves with. Anything stranded would just factor into a new Average position, and will eventually fill in a quieter market.

Given this understanding I can only think of a couple of questions/issues. First is, what is the best order to accomplish the above 3 steps (again, I'm guessing that in the long run it won't make a huge difference). Second is, since we know we will want to delete the grid above the Average price for the multiple positions, why don't we do that anytime we adjust the Average position buy purchasing a newer Average Down position? Say, after making the purchase, determine the actual average price of all your open positions, and delete any grid buy stop orders greater than 10 pips above the average price (So if the market is moving fast, and you have a standing grid order at 2 pips above the Average price, we would keep that one alive until we've finished establishing the new grid price). Then when the new buy stop grid is established, if that one remaining buy stop position hasn't triggered yet, the EA will go back and remove it.

I know this is really in the weeds stuff. I've done some programming though, and I know it might help Hayseed see something he might be missing if I can get enough of that detail in.

Hayseed, dude! Did you find your missing Right Closing Brackett? What a PAIN. You are an angel for doing this EA. I have an idea what you are up against, and I really appreciate you taking the time to work on this. May you be rewarded 1000 fold!
  • #123
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:28am Feb 21, 2008 11:28am
Ahhh shucks, Dreamliner... ... I have a good teacher, that's all.
  • #124
  • Feb 21, 2008 11:30am Feb 21, 2008 11:30am
Quoting Qman
Ahhh shucks, Dreamliner... ... I have a good teacher, that's all.
I hope you're not blaming me for your own studious apprehension ability!
  • #125
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:20pm Feb 21, 2008 1:20pm
hey qman..... bracket??,,, what's a bracket..........


nope, brackets are a-ok..... the relative conundrum involves shorts...... i've ran across this before but can't remember how , or if, i ever figured it out.....

still studying on it......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #126
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:32pm Feb 21, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting hayseed
hey qman..... bracket??,,, what's a bracket..........


nope, brackets are a-ok..... the relative conundrum involves shorts...... i've ran across this before but can't remember how , or if, i ever figured it out.....

still studying on it......h
Generally speaking, I find lighter colored shorts work better for me ... oh, umm... sorry, I guess that isn't where you are coming from. I guess I hope you just forgot, and will remember... Because the alternative doesn't sound like it's going to get your EA in our laps before the weekend. Good Luck.
  • #127
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:40pm Feb 21, 2008 1:40pm
Quoting Qman
Generally speaking, I find lighter colored shorts work better for me ... oh, umm... sorry, I guess that isn't where you are coming from. I guess I hope you just forgot, and will remember... Because the alternative doesn't sound like it's going to get your EA in our laps before the weekend. Good Luck.
In this system we have no shorts.

(sorry, couldn't resist! )
  • #128
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:50pm Feb 21, 2008 1:50pm
Quoting Dreamliner
In this system we have no shorts.

(sorry, couldn't resist! )
Wow bare back trades. sounds like the name of a web site.
  • #129
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:06pm Feb 21, 2008 3:06pm
do you use the same NAV (.5%) for the 10 pip tp grid trades as you do for the initial and -200 position trades? would you recommend using a larger (or smaller) percentage for these profit targets?

DrZ
  • #130
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:24pm Feb 21, 2008 3:24pm
Quoting kvzambo
do you use the same NAV (.5%) for the 10 pip tp grid trades as you do for the initial and -200 position trades? would you recommend using a larger (or smaller) percentage for these profit targets?

DrZ
I use the same (.5%), but I have considered doubling the buy stop orders to 1%, but haven't gotten around to testing it or thinking through it thoroughly yet. So I have just stuck with the easiest method, but this is certainly something we can consider.
  • #131
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:49pm Feb 21, 2008 3:49pm
Hey thanks Seeking Light, I appreciate your tired reasoning.

I agree that if Armageddon happens many trader's accounts will be blown up, and those of us left won't care much. The risk of Armageddon happening is real, so caution is indeed needed.

The thing that, for me at least, mitigates the other risks, is that I have gone back over years and years of charts and noticed that there is always recoveries when the market trends down. If this were not true, if the market sunk like an anchor and never stopped, you are right we would be sunk with the market. But this simply does not happen. Not to say that it couldn't, just that it hasn't. This is much like saying that forecasting which way the market is supposed to go *usually* happens as forecasted, but of course there are times when it doesn't.

My belief is that trading is risky, any way you look at it. I don't personally believe this method is *more* risky, and it may be *less* risky in the long run due to ongoing income from swap, take profit engine running full throttle, and positions averaging down with the market.

So, if I haven't said it before, let me say it now: this method is not for everybody. It is especially not for the risk averse or those who believe that Armageddon is going to happen on 2.22.2008 just because it has 6 (2's) in it.

Thanks for the heads up, SeekingLight!

Quoting SeekingLight
This is simply wrong in at least two ways, since it goes under the assumption of the status quo remaining for long enough for this to work.
Sure it may work the next 1-100 years; or it may not. The problem is that you are basing it on a situation that is prevalent "right now"(even though I would even contest that)and the chance/risk of all this going to, er, let's just say going bad are greater than 0.
Considering that this approach needs basically all of the account as basis, you are pretty much "betting"all of your deposit that nothing will ever change OR that if it does, you will be able to get out mostly unscathed.

As long as there is no paradigm shift this is of course great; but if EJ decides sub 100 levels would be so much nicer than 150+, then you merrily bought highs, scaled in, etc pp, and are now sitting on something that may earn 1 pip interest a day, but effectively lock down an account due to being down 1500-50000 pips. Would take a few days for that interest to compensate the pip loss. And now moving on to a possible economic paradigm shift, a re-surgance of japanese strength and narrowing yield and tadah, armageddon. Or simply a massive worst case scenario of the american recession. Or or or.
Dunno, just too many "may or may not" considerations for me to put the cash on. And no, it's not the same as a "the setup may or may not work out"; there's a difference between the "edges" and a "let's hope nothing ever changes long term" approach...imho at least.

Just saying.

I may have overlooked something, maybe the 10 pip tp engine can compensate or something, dunno..it's late and I'm tiiiiired..
  • #132
  • Feb 21, 2008 4:45pm Feb 21, 2008 4:45pm
Quoting Dreamliner
I use the same (.5%), but I have considered doubling the buy stop orders to 1%, but haven't gotten around to testing it or thinking through it thoroughly yet. So I have just stuck with the easiest method, but this is certainly something we can consider.

Dreamliner, In your original posting you had 0.05% of NAV. Hence my follow-on question about the negligible interest. So I guess it is 0.5% NAV?
  • #133
  • Feb 21, 2008 4:50pm Feb 21, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting Hoef
Dreamliner, In your original posting you had 0.05% of NAV. Hence my follow-on question about the negligible interest. So I guess it is 0.5% NAV?
Ah, so sorry Hoef, the correct size is 0.5 (half of 1 percent). I'll see if I can edit the first post.
  • #134
  • Feb 21, 2008 5:11pm Feb 21, 2008 5:11pm
Timefreedom

Referring to your post #87, 2nd chart. I would suggest not to open new order incrementally on 100 pips drop. You should do like this:
- every day at 20:00 GMT - EA checks out the last opened order
- if the current price is 100 pips or more lower - then EA opens new long
Stick with your rules with the rest.

For GJ 100 pips might be to small. I prefer 150 or 200 pips (best would be adjustable option)

Thanks for everyone's contribution!
  • #135
  • Feb 21, 2008 6:55pm Feb 21, 2008 6:55pm
Hi
Does the first entry (the market order) has a take profit or left without to average the first dangler ?
Thanks
  • #136
  • Feb 21, 2008 7:09pm Feb 21, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting harar
Hi
Does the first entry (the market order) has a take profit or left without to average the first dangler ?
Thanks
The very first order, and every order after closing out multiple orders, has a take profit of 10 pips. This first order begins the run up of limit orders and take profits.
  • #137
  • Feb 21, 2008 7:14pm Feb 21, 2008 7:14pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Ah, so sorry Hoef, the correct size is 0.5 (half of 1 percent). I'll see if I can edit the first post.
ok 0.5% makes sence. tx!
  • #138
  • Feb 22, 2008 4:51am Feb 22, 2008 4:51am
I love this strategy ! The thing I cannot figure out is about the 1 open order dangling. If you take spread into account wouldn't it happen you have 2 open orders when the price retraces ?

This is a simple and well thought out system ! Great work !
  • #139
  • Feb 22, 2008 10:00am Feb 22, 2008 10:00am
A very interesting strategy indeed! Thanks a lot for sharing. In your opinion, what would be a good alternate pair for this strategy? The reason for my inquiry is the very high spread on that pair with my broker(9 pips).
Liberate me ex inferis
  • #140
  • Feb 22, 2008 11:26am Feb 22, 2008 11:26am
Ok, I made my first attempt with this strategy this morning on the G/J. My very first first base trade was entered at 210.27 with the target of 10 pips which was filled and the subsequent buy stops were filled all way up to 211.07. Currently, I have two open trades at 210.97 and 211.07 and the price has retraced to 210.27 at the time of writing.

Correct me if I am wrong.. the average price would be 211.02 (210.97+211.07 = 422.04 / 2 = 211.02). The next ideal new base trade would be at 209.02 or below. Right?

Will it hurt the averaging strategy if I have two open trades at the top prior retracement? I am not sure how the next base trade without profit target can make up the difference with two prior top open positions? That area is something I have been trying to understand completely.

Thanks for sharing this strategy.
0 traders viewing now