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Why do 99% of the people who wants to be traders fail?

  • #61
  • Edited 3:13am Feb 21, 2008 2:59am | Edited 3:13am
Quoting Rabid
Just put a buy-sell stop pair some pips out from the current position (ATR can help with that, look at non news ATR swings and compare).
you are suggesting to enter after price has already moved beyond the ATR in the direction you will be trading. You will be buying into strength and selling into weakness. It sounds like a winning strategy but the reality is, you are always chasing the market. This is precisely what most losing traders do.The probability of price retracing against you is high. Better to hunt your trade by setting traps at predetermined support and resistence levels. when price comes to you and the level is respected by the market, your trade moves quickly into profit with little or no draw down. Check out E/J on the 20TH Feb at 10.00am gmt, would you believe I had a limit sell ready at the high of that hour to the exact pip?(158.97) I took 50 pips out
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  • #62
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:07am Feb 21, 2008 8:07am
Quoting hanover
Warren, I've no doubt that you're successful, and I congratulate you.

However, there are those who claim to be consistently profitable, using purely technical methods.

Once a trader has found his own winning method, I guess it stands to reason that he no longer continues to research other approaches, and hence runs the risk if developing a kind of "tunnel vision". I believe it's not necessarily correct to assume that, just because somebody else's method isn't similar to one's own winning way, that it's doomed to fail. As Jack Schwager says in The New Market Wizards (assuming it's applicable to forex also) "there are a million ways to make money in the markets; the irony is that they're all very difficult to find".

As to why so many traders fail, there's a lot of randomness in price movement, and my experience is that it can take several months of testing to find a pattern that delivers an edge. I'm not there yet myself, but there are some that have claimed to achieved it, hence I believe that it's possible. Many newcomers have been seduced into believing that forex trading is easy money, and aren't prepared to put in the hard yards when they discover that it's not the case. The dedication required can place tremendous strain on one's career, marriage and family priorities. It takes some resilience to continue persevering, following several frustrating months (or possibly even years) of poor, umpromising or inconclusive results. I expect that all of these factors help contribute to the high dropout rate.

I also believe that aspiring intraday traders underestimate the effect of costs across a large number of transactions (spread may be < 5% of a move, but casinos make billions from a 1% edge), and there is also the possibility of stop hunting and broker cheating.

I think that the MM and psychology aspects definitely take their toll, but are overrated. Of course if a newcomer sizes positions recklessly and/or makes entries or exits based on emotion or hunches, he will ultimately fail. But the same is true if he doesn't have a method that's capable of overcoming the odds.

In similar vein, I don't believe that maintaining a positive attitude by itself is enough. Just because I "generate" as much positive energy as I can when I buy a lottery ticket, it doesn't change the odds, and I don't see why trading should be any different. But of course a negative attitude is self-defeating.

Last year I traded a live account for almost 4 months and I lost around 9%. I can honestly say that I sized all positions at 1% risk, maintained a positive enough attitude, and kept to my entry/exit plan with 100% discipline. But my plan didn't time the entries and exits accurately enough, and consequently didn't deliver an edge. As a result, I lost money, and closed the account.

David

Your post is thoughtful and very intelligent.

The KEY is the EDGE.

Here is your EDGE if you really want it.

It takes time and hard work.

How about if I email you a actual client's file that shows I made 693 FX trades in a row without a loss ?

The above comment is not about bragging but just to establish my incredible credentials.

All other factors and points are needed and valid. However you need an edge. I average over 20% increase in Cash Asset Value per month. I have the EDGE.

Good FX trading to you and have a great day.

Bruce
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  • #63
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:22am Feb 21, 2008 8:22am
Quoting Warren Forex
... How about if I email you a actual client's file that shows I made 693 FX trades in a row without a loss ?...
Over how long a period of time?
You ever read Snellgrove's book?
With very selective entries and exits, this is quite achievable by many.

Quote
... not about bragging but just to establish my incredible credentials...
Kinda sounds like the same thing to me. No offense.

Quote
I have the EDGE.
No. You have an edge. Not the edge

Quote
I average over 20% increase in Cash Asset Value per month. I have the EDGE.
I like the moxy, don't get me wrong. But why do you feel you have to continuously, in every post, reaffirm it to yourself and us?
Just trying to understand the underlying motive and mentality is all, as the last person with such personality traits that I worked with, was in fact the most insecure out of all of the members of our group. It is a common mental defense mechanism.
Kind of a "...the empty can rattles the most.." cliche.
And to me personally, the more times I read statements like this from people, the less I believe them.
I'm just saying it may start having the adverse effect on your audience that you are hoping it will.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #64
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:53am Feb 21, 2008 8:53am
In the beginning, when you hear 95% or 99% of traders fail, you kind of give it a second thought. Actually, do not forget that a lot of traders are new, unexperienced and do not do anything more than some kind of gambling when they take a position. Also, some of them jump from a system to another trying to find the HOLY GRAIL. The Foreign Exchange Market has nothing to do with the holy grail as we imagine it. There is a Holy Grail for everyone on Earth, whether it is working as a simple employée, an entrepreneur, a policeman, a lawyer or a forex trader, it does not matter. Actually, what seems perfect to you might be your Holy Grail, but what is perfect to you might not be perfect to another's eyes. So even in this market the Holy Grail, whatever people might call it, is different for each one of us.
  • #65
  • Feb 21, 2008 9:25am Feb 21, 2008 9:25am
Quoting fsiltd
Over how long a period of time?
You ever read Snellgrove's book?
With very selective entries and exits, this is quite achievable by many.

Kinda sounds like the same thing to me. No offense.

No. You have an edge. Not the edge

I like the moxy, don't get me wrong. But why do you feel you have to continuously, in every post, reaffirm it to yourself and us?
Just trying to understand the underlying motive and mentality is all, as the last person with such personality traits that I worked with, was in fact the most insecure out of all of the members of our group. It is a common mental defense mechanism.
Kind of a "...the empty can rattles the most.." cliche.
And to me personally, the more times I read statements like this from people, the less I believe them.
I'm just saying it may start having the adverse effect on your audience that you are hoping it will.

Because of my open honest style there have been, not particularily at this place but for sure at Oanda FX forum, parties that constantly insult, defame me among many other issues that relates to my personality and nature.

That being said perhaps I am a bit defensive when my record is challenged.

I accept your positive comments 100% and I enjoyed reading your post.

Let me give you a specific example of the EDGE that I have through my knowledge of the fundamentals.

Just before 10:00 AM EST the USD/JPY pair that I trade was above 108.00

My expectation was for a worse than consensus Philly Fed number at 10:00
and it was a correction assumption.

I trade USD/JPY with RESISTANCE for me at 108.50 and I short it everytime it heads up there. Then I await NEW news and voila.

The Low in the last few minutes was 107.71

I closed ALL my positions and got 50 PIPS on 5 positions of 100K.

The USD/JPY correlates to the Dow going up and down. The Carry Trade in the USD/JPY is unwinding. The US Dolar Index is moving below 76.00

The FED needs to CUT in March.

By the way the 693 FX trades of 100K was done between October 2, 2007 and October 30m 2007.

Best regards

Bruce
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  • #66
  • Feb 21, 2008 9:39am Feb 21, 2008 9:39am
Quoting Warren Forex
Because of my open honest style there have been, not particularily at this place but for sure at Oanda FX forum, parties that constantly insult, defame me among many other issues that relates to my personality and nature.

That being said perhaps I am a bit defensive when my record is challenged.

I accept your positive comments 100% and I enjoyed reading your post.
I wasn't asking you to explain your methodology. I've read enough of it thanks. And wasn't trying to insult or defame you.
I was more challenging your very bold statements, especially having THE EDGE. When in reality a single, one-and-only edge doesn't exist.
And all you are doing is trading s/r with a bit of fundie in the mix.

I was trying to understand the intent behind it all. Which you always seem to dodge nicely by posting a position update, or a recent trade.

I suppose I just have issues with people such as yourself, that at first glance seem to think they are the be all and end all to trading forex.
I always ask direct questions as to why they think they are, and what their agenda is for having to tell everyone.

I'm yet to get a direct answer in return...

I'd suggest writing and publishing a book as so many other "guru's" have done. Stick it on a shelf somewhere and you won't have to constantly avoid dealing with direct questions from healthily skeptical folks like me in a public forum
Carpe Divitiae
  • #67
  • Feb 22, 2008 6:23am Feb 22, 2008 6:23am
Quoting fsiltd
I wasn't asking you to explain your methodology. I've read enough of it thanks. And wasn't trying to insult or defame you.
I was more challenging your very bold statements, especially having THE EDGE. When in reality a single, one-and-only edge doesn't exist.
And all you are doing is trading s/r with a bit of fundie in the mix.

I was trying to understand the intent behind it all. Which you always seem to dodge nicely by posting a position update, or a recent trade.

I suppose I just have issues with people such as yourself, that at first glance seem to think they are the be all and end all to trading forex.
I always ask direct questions as to why they think they are, and what their agenda is for having to tell everyone.

I'm yet to get a direct answer in return...

I'd suggest writing and publishing a book as so many other "guru's" have done. Stick it on a shelf somewhere and you won't have to constantly avoid dealing with direct questions from healthily skeptical folks like me in a public forum

I hope to be able to directly answer your question here and now.

I think we agree that 90% plus of all FX currency traders lose money. I have reviewed Barclay's and others who report on performances of FX currency traders.

Someone managing over $1,000,000 US dollars if they achieve a return of 50% for the year would be considered in the top 10 in the world.

I only started trading FX using Demo accounts from September 2003 until March 8, 2006 and then managing funds for other people under a LPOA from March 9, 2006 until present day.

I have had as high as $250,000 US dollars under management with a dozen clients.

I have learned so much since September 2003 and I still have much to learn.

Just ACCEPT this one fact that I can PROVE if need be.

The fact...


I Average PLUS 20% return a month each month that I trade.

Don't you think that I asked myself at least one thousand times why ?

Why can I go 693 FX trades in a row without a loss ? Why do I average plus 20% a month constantly ?

I can only come up with one answer.

I have the EDGE and I am just that darn good.

What else can I say. I now am working with larger investors to put together One Million US dollars in FX trading funds.

After I trade this amount for one year and increase the value of the fund by 100% I will come back here to post. Then maybe you might accept that I have the EDGE.

Either way the way forawrd is clear and bright.

I traded a Demo account through PFG in Chicago that they set up for me with an amount of $5,000,000 US dollars.

I traded it for exactly 56 days or 8 weeks and did 1804 FX trades.

I had 4 losses in 1804 FX trades.

I increased the Demo account to PLUS $7,500,000 US dollars.

Would you like me to send you the documented PDF file of those 1804 FX trades ?

Perhaps that might confirm my EDGE...

Please understand that this is not a arrogant post but one just stating the facts.

Sincerely yours

Bruce
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  • #68
  • Feb 22, 2008 6:43am Feb 22, 2008 6:43am
Quoting Warren Forex
What else can I say. I now am working with larger investors to put together One Million US dollars in FX trading funds.
One Million? Isn't that peanuts?
I have about 12 Million alone. 1 Mio is nothing.
You can have proof if you want.
  • #69
  • Feb 22, 2008 6:50am Feb 22, 2008 6:50am
Quoting Tjpld
One Million? Isn't that peanuts?
I have about 12 Million alone. 1 Mio is nothing.
You can have proof if you want.
If you are serious then send it to the [email protected]

If you are not have a great day.

Bruce

It is so simple if you really want the truth rather than massage your EGO by putting someone down to feel superior.

Just give me your email and I will send you the proof.

Otherwise you just show me who is real and who is just them.

Have a Great Day All...
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  • #70
  • Feb 22, 2008 6:53am Feb 22, 2008 6:53am
Quoting Warren Forex
I hope to be able to directly answer your question here and now.
So did I...

Quote
Don't you think that I asked myself at least one thousand times why ?
Why can I go 693 FX trades in a row without a loss ? Why do I average plus 20% a month constantly ?
I can only come up with one answer.
I have the EDGE and I am just that darn good.
So what you're actually saying then is... You don't know why.

Quote
What else can I say.
Please. Say no more.

Quote
Then maybe you might accept that I have the EDGE.
Nope. Sorry.

Quote
Would you like me to send you the documented PDF file of those 1804 FX trades ?
No thanks. To what purpose. You won't get your ego stroked by me.

Quote
Perhaps that might confirm my EDGE...
If only you could define it, before trying confirm it. Or having it confirmed by others.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #71
  • Feb 22, 2008 8:27am Feb 22, 2008 8:27am
Pissing contest...
"One Grows Tall After Walking Through A Forest Of Tall Trees."
  • #72
  • Feb 22, 2008 8:27am Feb 22, 2008 8:27am
Warren Forex,

you've got mail.
  • #73
  • Feb 22, 2008 8:36am Feb 22, 2008 8:36am
An answer to the Thread title can be found in this post.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...24&postcount=6
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #74
  • Feb 22, 2008 8:46am Feb 22, 2008 8:46am
u always come up with something mrgreen..Still remember the first month when i join this forum and asking how to create a thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...41&postcount=6

Hope u doin' fine, and thx

Quoting mrgreen
An answer to the Thread title can be found in this post.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...24&postcount=6
  • #75
  • Feb 22, 2008 10:19am Feb 22, 2008 10:19am
Quoting effilang
Pissing contest...

I used to know a guy who had a favorite saying, which was:

"He'd have to be able piss a bucket full of foam before he f*#ks with me"
Carpe Divitiae
  • #76
  • Feb 22, 2008 11:14am Feb 22, 2008 11:14am
Quoting fsiltd

I used to know a guy who had a favorite saying, which was:

"He'd have to be able piss a bucket full of foam before he f*#ks with me"

I do not need my EGO stroked. I only started this FX thread in order to teach people how to trade properly in order to make money.

My only reward is the satisfaction of helping just one person.

If you do not understand or accept that it does not matter.

Good Trading and leave the EGO at home.

The meaning of that last remark is that no reply is needed to this post.

You are free to post but if you do then it is your EGO that posts.

I do not need anyone's approval.

You asked me a question and I tried to answer it honestly.

Good Day and have a great weekend. I surely will.

Bruce
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  • #77
  • Feb 22, 2008 1:22pm Feb 22, 2008 1:22pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Your post is thoughtful and very intelligent.

The KEY is the EDGE.

Here is your EDGE if you really want it.

It takes time and hard work.

How about if I email you a actual client's file that shows I made 693 FX trades in a row without a loss ?

The above comment is not about bragging but just to establish my incredible credentials.

All other factors and points are needed and valid. However you need an edge. I average over 20% increase in Cash Asset Value per month. I have the EDGE.

Good FX trading to you and have a great day.

Bruce
Bruce, thanks for your kind comments.

No disrespect intended, but even if you send me proof of your incredible credentials, it's not going to help me establish my own edge. If you've made 693 trades without a single loss, I congratulate you. (There are folk who claim a 100% win rate by not using stoplosses, and ignoring unrealized losses, but I assume that you're not one of them).

Best wishes,
David
  • #78
  • Feb 22, 2008 2:16pm Feb 22, 2008 2:16pm
I'm still waiting for it. ^^
Hey at least I've disclosed my multi-million fortune to him.
He owes me something....
So by now I'm the only one here speaking the truth.....
  • #79
  • Feb 23, 2008 3:44am Feb 23, 2008 3:44am
Quoting Warren Forex
I do not need my EGO stroked. I only started this FX thread in order to teach people how to trade properly in order to make money.
I'm not sure you actually think before you type. I've seen and worked with traders a lot better than yourself that did not even make claims like these.

Quote
My only reward is the satisfaction of helping just one person.
You may find that does in fact become the case.

Quote
Good Trading and leave the EGO at home.
Practice what you preach.

Quote
You are free to post but if you do then it is your EGO that posts.
Agreed. It is an inevitable human condition, created by centuries of pre-conditioning. However, at least I can exercise some measure of control over mine.

Quote
I do not need anyone's approval.
Agreed. And that's a shame.

Quote
You asked me a question and I tried to answer it honestly.
If you say so. You must remember, there are two truths in this life.

Quote
I surely will.
Now that I do believe.

I'll leave it at that. All the best in your endevour. I sincerely hope the market gods show you at least some mercy.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #80
  • Feb 23, 2008 10:44am Feb 23, 2008 10:44am
It might be a pissing contest, but it was a good read. Warren, you may be an excellent trader, but I've got to say, fsiltd has the edge when it comes to words...

David has it spot on with the positive thinking - it doesn't change the odds of whatever system your trading. So many systems (and not just technical) on this forum and others have no positive expectancy whatsoever, so the best-case scenario with proper money management is a slow bleeding to death.

In short, you can be happiest, most optimistic positive thinker but you can't polish a t*rd.
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