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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #63,061
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:35pm Feb 21, 2008 1:35pm
Funny things happen at these times LOL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #63,062
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:49pm Feb 21, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting GodfreyH
Went long at approximately 5-sma.

a) 4 hr trend line convincingly broken
b)Momentums are over zero line
c)4hr qqe has crossed and confirmed.

This down was a retracement to the 5-sma (gold line). I expect this to be a very good long trade from here.

4 hr gartley completed 61.8% retrace earlier and I still expect longs to remain in force as 4 hr qqe still crossed up.
  • #63,063
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:49pm Feb 21, 2008 1:49pm
Sorry folks but the problem has be discovered.
The US Navy shot down the wrong satellite last night.
They'll never admit that, but it seems logical...
  • #63,064
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:54pm Feb 21, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting pip_designer
If your looking at the bigger picture, the weekly chart for the last 5 weeks is making higher lows. The 214 resistance is the same for every week.
It almost seems that the weekly chart is consolidating ready for the next leg down. The last leg was 2000 pips.

Although we are getting higher lows the last three weeks we need this for the RSi to come up a little , to give it room to move to the downside once more.

If the markets (American) do drop as expected and there is no disconnet between DJ-30 and GBPJPY then 190 would be next target based on monthly trend line. (low of 1995 to low of 2000 forms trend line). This also happens to be zone of 61.8% fib retracement of 148.29 (2000 low ) to high 251.10 (2007 high).

If you look back at last consolidation zone NOv / Dec 2007 the very same higher lows with a flat top pattern could be seen on the weekly. It lasted for 6 weeks.

This consolidation zone has been for 6 weeks also. As chart patterns have a history of repeating themsevles.

Does that mean next week the markets will go down? Just something to be aware of YM (DJ-30) futures traders are expecting a 11900 dow soon , and maybe lower.





Still unable to post chart otherwise I would post the chart for this one.
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  • #63,065
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:03pm Feb 21, 2008 2:03pm
A weekly close above those 2 angles red and pink at current price and shorts will get smoked
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #63,066
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:29pm Feb 21, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting forexnovice
Sorry for the stupid question but cant see the chart I uploaded just now. Newline's chart is also not visible whereas charts on the other pages are. Does anyone else have this problem ?
Seems a lot more people are experiencing the same problem http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post1863934
  • #63,067
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:33pm Feb 21, 2008 2:33pm
Would anyone go short from here? Resistance @210.88, targeting @209.10 MACD is bearish on 4hr and daily. Seems some of you are or going to long
  • #63,068
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:49pm Feb 21, 2008 2:49pm
The pair completed its 50% re-trace today and seems poised to bounce up.
Since 2/14, the pair has moved in a tightening horizontal channel.
Daily is working on a series of lower highs and as resistance has been cleared, then on the re-test, support has held. (for the most part)
Good Euro zone/ GBP news this morning, followed by weak USD today.
Stock market was well down and is expected to go lower.
Typically, the Nikkei follows a US market decline with one of its own.
Eur and Gbp both up solidly against the Usd today clearing what has been pretty strong resistance.
An easy argument can be made for a bounce back to 211 area with a test of 213, or for a move down back to 208.80 area before another move up.
Neither GBP or JPY wants to be particularly strong, as that increases inflationary pressures.
So what is a trader to do???
I am sure I missed some other key items, but that is plenty to digest.
  • #63,069
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:50pm Feb 21, 2008 2:50pm
Quoting mktjong
Would anyone go short from here? Resistance @210.88, targeting @209.10 MACD is bearish on 4hr and daily. Seems some of you are or going to long
I'm short and thinking once I am in a position to lock in to let her ride. I personally think that last rejection at 212 was significant. With the 4hr crossed up, I think we will have plenty of steam heading down when she decides to cross down again. This last move up could have been to collect more fire power for the way down.
But who knows, really?
  • #63,070
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:59pm Feb 21, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting newline
i'm built to trade on this kind of choppy market for last 12 years in stock market and currency market. today is like a heaven day for me.

well, here is my charts. at this point it's hanging on 100d moving average and ACS breakout level for longs early this morning.
fib is at 62, QQEs are still down. RSI on 30min says it's still going down hard.

i got in at 210.56 (break even point). i may get out with 50 pips gain this time.
Nice layout... Care to share?? What indicators are you using (w/ parameters) and do you have a MT4 templates for your layout?
  • #63,071
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:59pm Feb 21, 2008 2:59pm
I have thrown the chicken bones down and they say:

Go short off 210.8 zone. (we are in 30 min ago)

Targets
210.2
209.5
208.8
208
206.83

Mad maybe but these are based on following :
1) 1-2-3 sell formation on longer term time frame
2) cup and handle formation and bear flag on 10 min today.

all above targets are fib extension targets on the 60 min 1-2-3 sell formation

DJ-30 breaks 12200 tomorrow she going down 300 points , 12200 is important 23.6% fib level , next support 11900. Also 12200 is break of bottom of bear flag on daily DJ-30.

If 211 breaks to up side then the whole short trade set up is detroyed.

Also we have a Wolfe Wave safe entry on a short of 210.85. The actual short confirmation ws 3 pips above the high of today. I do not know much about Wolfe Waves but my partner does , when they form and are confirmed man-o-man we made 900 pips on the last one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY.jpg Size: 119 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.png Size: 118 KB
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  • #63,072
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:17pm Feb 21, 2008 3:17pm
That is one for the Bears.
Very nice charts. i would love to hear more about the Wolf...
I forgot that Fukui is speaking at 10 EST (5 GMT I think)
Not sure his words are in the same category as Uncle Ben or Greenspan,
but could certainly move the Asian session, I would think.
For the record, I think the charts are showing down, but the surrounding circumstances support a move up.
Thus my confusion...
  • #63,073
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:33pm Feb 21, 2008 3:33pm
Quoting PipAV8tor
That is one for the Bears.
Very nice charts. i would love to hear more about the Wolf...
I forgot that Fukui is speaking at 10 EST (5 GMT I think)
Not sure his words are in the same category as Uncle Ben or Greenspan,
but could certainly move the Asian session, I would think.
For the record, I think the charts are showing down, but the surrounding circumstances support a move up.
Thus my confusion...
This is where the close eyes and hop for best indicator comes in .... lol

http://www.wolfewave.com/index.htm

That is the web site for Wolfe Waves. My partner swears by them. I like to keep things simple and do not know much about them as they seem complicated to me ( but work very well)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #63,074
  • Edited 4:02pm Feb 21, 2008 3:41pm | Edited 4:02pm
Does anybody know of a site that tracks realtime Nikkei futures like the one from yahoo for the Dow Jones?
http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=futures

The site in my signature does not have realtime Nikkei futures.

Thanks!
  • #63,075
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:42pm Feb 21, 2008 3:42pm
Exactly, I think I'll wait until Fukui speaks and see if that provides a direction.
Anything prior to that could be reversed by his words.
Unless I see a scalp opportunity to grab 20 or 30 pips...
  • #63,076
  • Feb 21, 2008 4:01pm Feb 21, 2008 4:01pm
My long tp'ed at 210.90 from 210.42. standing aside for now.
  • #63,077
  • Feb 21, 2008 4:45pm Feb 21, 2008 4:45pm
Took a while. I'll wait for a retrace and a reload.long
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #63,078
  • Feb 21, 2008 4:51pm Feb 21, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting bogus
Took a while. I'll wait for a retrace and a reload.long

http://www.wolfewave.com/an_illustra..._the_rules.htm
  • #63,079
  • Feb 21, 2008 4:58pm Feb 21, 2008 4:58pm
Interesting. What is supposed to happen next after a wolf wave?Cheers
Quoting naatha
http://www.wolfewave.com/an_illustra..._the_rules.htm
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #63,080
  • Feb 21, 2008 5:15pm Feb 21, 2008 5:15pm
here is my simple cahrt trendlines and support resistance..... threw up a fib just for kicks to show the 50 level....


this is the same chart i had drawn yesterday (or was it the day before) havent move anything



this is what i see..... the triangle is still getting smaller .....just banged into the top side ans slowly retracing down to lower part of triangle.... unless she decides to pop up and out..... but more likely not....

good trading all
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