Trading with the Edge.

I suggest you look a little harder on the median line site. A big hint...right there on the home page.

I'm holding my breath in anticipation.

Hey Zones,

First, here's a chart of the GBP Daily to see the long-term PF. In Andrew's original work, he spoke of counting pivots. He found that once you see 5 pivots, then you start looking for a trend change. This is NOT to be confused with Elliot Wave in any way. It's something that he noticed, that's all. You don't start going counter trend just because there are 5 pivots, you just keep in mind the extension of the trend.

Btw, Robert Miner's work on Waves is some of the best out there. I'm not advocating EW at all, but knowing the wave structures helps a lot. Miner is also a big fan of DiNapoli's work and it dovetails nicely with PFs.

Now here's the hourly chart with the same PF and Fibs. Remember what I said about the chart Zack had taken and how if you get strong movement towards the ML and if it comes back and bounces on a Fib then it's still good. But if it heads straight back to the starting point you're probably looking at a failure.

In this chart we see the UML tested 4 times. Bear in mind that even though the price penetrated the UML, it never went above the 3rd Pivot high. This happens all the time. It would be nice if price always bounced precisely on the lines, but this is the real world we're dealing with here, not a classroom.

Once price separated from the UML it didn't stop until the 62% ret and then it stalled at the 38% ret after heading back up. The PF was still good at this point.

If you've read all of Morge's archives, you've seen where he has found a huge amount of symmetry between overshoots and undershoots. The initial overshoots in the beginning oftentimes signal an undershoot later on. It's off in the exact ratio, but the price missed this ML by 11 pips after traveling 526 pips. That's closer than hand grenades and nuclear weapons.

Study the chart and the relationship with the Fibs. This is normal.

Btw, now that that the long-term PF has been broken and price right now is at 9682, look for a retest of the UML. If it tests it 2-3 times and holds, it's a long. I know you're short and the test would be around 9634-9654, but that UML is a great target for you right now.

Hello everyone....sorry I have been very sick lately and only made 1 other trade the last trade i took was another Eur/Usd Long, I saw it on the 1 hour chart, and I used the 15 minute for a better entry, thanks Dopey this time around it worked like a charm...in any case I got +49 pips....

On the Eur/Usd Short, I saw that it broke out of the PF was hoping that it would give me a chance to get out before it hit my wide s/l, next time around it won't be so big. In this case it dropped and I took what I could after the close of the first bear candle, +14....

If you need me to post charts, I will do so, but I am still not feeling well and probably won't take anymore trades this week

If i am honest, when i took the trade i wasn't thinking of the high probability of the retest of the UML. In Morges seminar of last week he spoke a good deal about how price comes back to retest a median line. This morning for me it was a case of reselling the old UML of last week hoping to pick a top. Human nature is what it is, despite the fact that i am against the idea of picking tops/bottoms per se, I still managed to talk myself into it by thinking i am not picking a top but executing what Van Tharp terms as a "low risk idea".
Dopey, thank you so much for all the tips, hints and help. I am truly grateful.
Whilst i fully understand your circumstances, i hope you will reconsider my private request.

I guess my stop should have been wider this morning.

After my rather poor trade this morning, i took the afternoon off. This mornings trade was poor as i allowed a winning trade to become a loser. The truth is the market was gyrating so close to my entry and i had no place to hide my stop. So i left it in the initial place.
To compound my misery, whilst away from the screen i missed a gorgeous setup in the afternoon. In the chart below a perfect setup for 62 pips. It was one of those rare trades where from the moment go one would be in profit with no heat whatsoever.

Don't beat yourself up too much. It doesn't get you anywhere. And you can't watch the market all the time, so you're always going to miss trades. It's life.

Keep an eye on the retest of that long term PF. It's slowly working it's way down.

Thanks for the encouragement and support Dopey.
There was a nice trade down this morning.

Thanks i was watching it this morning, infact i was so focussed on it that i missed the down move. Anyway, i got few pips by going long at 32.

Well the week is over and i am off to England to visit my parents for a week or so.
The results of my endeavours of the week plus thursday, friday of last week.
Total Trades:16
Winners 37%
Losers 63%
Expectancy -1.74
Balance down 3.2%
Marks out of 10 for:
Planning 4
Execution 2
Observations.
On the long road to profitability, I have made some progress. I have identified areas of weakness as well as strength. One positive for the week is that my average win is greater than average loss. Hopefully, with better planning and execution my % winners figure will improve.This improvement will lead to more winning days, weeks and ultimately a winning mentality and a consistently winning trader. In my personal journal i have noted that most of my losing trades had a common denominator, viz, poor execution. Although my planning needs to be improved also. However, i am not making execuses. I have no ego issues. I acknowledge my shortcomings and i will work on them.
I don't know if i will be able to devout so much time to the market next week, so lets wait and see.
My goal for next week is to improve my planning by 5%. My execution by 7%.
Have a good weekend everyone.
PS. many thanks to the people who have helped and encouraged me privately and publicly. Thank you billflet,capitalist and in particular Mr Dopey.

Hey Zones,

Here's a trade I took today. It was a very simple set up.

First the Daily chart.

I thought yesterday would reach the ML. When it made a 38% retracement (which I missed because I was out playing with my oldest son) yesterday, I was very sure it would make a run for the ML today so I went looking for an entry on the 15 minute chart.

The PF on the Daily is a Schiff PF. These are used when the PF is at an extremely steep angle. Most of the time they work out, sometimes the steepness of the angle works.

The main factor is I wanted to be long because the prevailing long-term trend is long.

I went to the 15 min chart and found the price riding the LML. Once it made the second test I bought at market. It went below the LML then closed just above it.

I bought at market at 4664 with my target as the Daily ML at 4730.

My stop went below the third pivot. I figured if it broke that today, it would make a deeper retracement down to the 50% on the daily and I wasn't going to get married to this idea. My stop was at 4640. Risk to reward was a healthy 1:3.16, but only if I let it ride out to the ML.

Ok, I've gotten a handful of pm's about my posts on this thread. Most have been positive in nature, but I got a couple that questioned whether or not I really trade this stuff. As a rule, I don't give a rat's ass about anyone's opinion, however, their questions are valid.

I have no interest in a) mentoring anyone b) making live calls. If what I contribute here doesn't interest you, so be it. But don't bust my balls with your pm's, it's your problem, not mine. In the interest of showing Zones more than anyone else, here is a screenshot of today's trade so you can see I'm not blowing smoke up anyone's ass. I will not make a habit of doing this, btw.