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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #2,621
  • Jan 11, 2007 9:23am Jan 11, 2007 9:23am
hi itme...
i want to ask, what do you think about EUR/USD. how long EUR/USD will go down?

thanks B4
  • #2,622
  • Edited 10:09am Jan 11, 2007 9:48am | Edited 10:09am
Thursday January 11, 2006 at 10:45 ET

Trade Experiment #311 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2513

Stop is 1.2586

Target is 1.1900

Risk is 77 pips

Reward is 609 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 7.9

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : excellent

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade the third wave of Wave 3 down (see one day chart). Perhaps the Zionists or neocons will drop some nuclear bombs on Iran, which will precipitate a rapid decline in USD/CHF.

___________________________________________________
______________________________________________________

Previous predictions:

USD/CHF Wave Hypothesis for December 26, 2006 at 17:00 ET:

A downwards impulse wave since October 16, 2006 at 1.2770 is carrying USD/CHF towards 1.1450 in a few months (an 11.5% decline). This is part of a larger downtrend that began February 28, 2006 at 1.3235. At that time, employing Elliott Wave and Q System analysis, I predicted a strong downturn targetting about 1.1300, a 17% decline.

The current uptrend that began December 5, 2006 is headed to between 1.2300 and 1.2400, at which point we will be blessed by a very favorable short trading opportunity with low risk and high reward potential.

The short term current pattern is amenable to a variety of different wave interpretations, so the certainty level is low. We could see a decline from here to the 1.2100 area, as Trade Experiment #297 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2220 is predicated upon. Or we could see a rise to 1.2300

My guess is that the price of USD/CHF will rise from its current value at 1.2230 up to 1.2250, then fall to 1.2205, then rise to about 1.2300. Then it will begin its larger move down to about 1.2050, which would present a favorable trading opportunity.
  • #2,623
  • Edited 4:53am Jan 12, 2007 4:21am | Edited 4:53am
Friday, January 12 at 5:15 ET

I exited my last trade experiment buying GBP/USD with only 15 pips profit according to my new policy of raising the bar for higher clarity, certainty, accuracy and strategic merit in my trade experiments. In fact, the original entry price of 1.9431 was only 15 pips higher than the minimum point reached (which was 1.9416) before the rise to 1.9534 yesterday, a trend high which was 84 pips higher than my conservative target of 1.9450, largely due to the unexpected 25 basis point BOE interest rate hike. If the price had descended to my prefered entry price of 1.9300, then the reward : risk ratio for this trade would have increased to about 7.0:1 from 3.5 : 1.

My current entry target for a sell trade for this Wave C of the downwards corrective Wave 4 is 1.9500, which will present a sell opportunity down to about 1.9400 or lower.

The current price is 1.9484.

____________________________________________________
____________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Wednesday January 10 at 22:00 ET

Revise target for Trade Experiment #308 Buy GBP/USD to 1.9340

Earn about 15 pips of profit.

We expect a decline to about 1.9300 where we will consider entering for the long trade with a target of about 1.9500 which will be the C Wave of a upwards Wave 4 corrective wave.

__________________________________________________ __
__________________________________________________ __

Previous trade experiment:

Wednesday January 10 at 10:15 ET
Trade Experiment #308 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9321
Stop is 1.9289
Target is 1.9450
Risk is 36 pips
Reward is 125 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 3.5 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

My first Elliott Wave hypothesis is that we are in an upwards corrective wave 4 and that wave-a has already completed, now we are in wave-b that is finding a bottom and the final c-wave of a larger wave-4 is coming soon. This hypothesis is viable.

Another hypothesis is that we are in a corrective upwards wave 4, but the first upwards a wave has only gone 1-2-3-4, so we are now anticipating a wave 5. In this second scenario the wave 4 has just descended more than usual, which makes this hypothesis less likely, but not impossible.

A third scenario is that we are in a corrective upwards wave 4, but we have only seen wave 1 and wave 2, and are now about to undergo wave 3 of the "a" wave upwards. This is my current favorite hypothesis, as it is consistent with typical Elliott Wave behavior.
  • #2,624
  • Jan 12, 2007 5:25am Jan 12, 2007 5:25am
Friday, January 12 at 6:15 ET

Adjust Entry Price for Trade Experiment #311 Sell USD/CHF to 1.2575

_____________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Thursday January 11, 2006 at 10:45 ET
Trade Experiment #311 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2513
Stop is 1.2586
Target is 1.1900
Risk is 77 pips
Reward is 609 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 7.9

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : excellent

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade the third wave of Wave 3 down (see one day chart). Perhaps the Zionists or neocons will drop some nuclear bombs on Iran, which will precipitate a rapid decline in USD/CHF.

__________________________________________________ _
__________________________________________________ ____

Previous predictions:

USD/CHF Wave Hypothesis for December 26, 2006 at 17:00 ET:

A downwards impulse wave since October 16, 2006 at 1.2770 is carrying USD/CHF towards 1.1450 in a few months (an 11.5% decline). This is part of a larger downtrend that began February 28, 2006 at 1.3235. At that time, employing Elliott Wave and Q System analysis, I predicted a strong downturn targetting about 1.1300, a 17% decline.

The current uptrend that began December 5, 2006 is headed to between 1.2300 and 1.2400, at which point we will be blessed by a very favorable short trading opportunity with low risk and high reward potential.

The short term current pattern is amenable to a variety of different wave interpretations, so the certainty level is low. We could see a decline from here to the 1.2100 area, as Trade Experiment #297 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2220 is predicated upon. Or we could see a rise to 1.2300

My guess is that the price of USD/CHF will rise from its current value at 1.2230 up to 1.2250, then fall to 1.2205, then rise to about 1.2300. Then it will begin its larger move down to about 1.2050, which would present a favorable trading opportunity.
  • #2,625
  • Edited 7:27am Jan 12, 2007 5:34am | Edited 7:27am
Friday, January 12 at 6:15 ET

Revise Target for Trade Experiment #310 Sell USD/CAD to 1.1740

A new wave hypothesis indicates that the upwards trend in USD/CAD is not yet over, and this is but a corrective fourth wave down. It is thus better to exit a 1.1740 to 1.1730 and collect 56 - 66 pips of profit.

The current price is 1.1746

p.s. - price dropped to 1.1724 just now (6:50 ET )
___________________________________________________
___________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Thursday January 11, 2006 at 8:45 ET
Trade Experiment #310 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1800
Stop is 1.1821
Target is 1.1700
Risk is 26 pips
Reward is 95 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 3.6
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade down the b Wave of the C Wave of Wave 4, or the second wave down of a new upwards 5 wave set - Wave 5.

__________________________________________________
__________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Update Trade Experiment #304A Sell USD/CAD <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Monday January 8 at 11:15 ET

Upon reflection, I believe that it is probable that USD/CAD is currently engaged in a Wave 4 pattern. Our trade should have been exited at the bottom of the 5-wave pattern at 1.1722, which was a high probability reversal target, to take 58 pips of profit. I believe that this was a wave A of a Wave 4, which was then followed by an upwards wave B, and which will now be followed by a downwards wave C.

Wave C should be reversing at about 1.1780, which is another entry opportunity for a short (few pips) trade downwards. Target is about 1.1710.

p.s. - The upwards wave C reversed at 1.1782 as predicted, and has fallen to 1.1729 so far, on its way to about 1.1722. In case it doesn't make it all the way to 1.1722, traders may elect to exit earlier.
__________________________________________________ ___
__________________________________________________ ___

Friday January 5 at 6:45 ET
Trade Experiment #304A Sell USD/CAD at 1.1785
Stop is 1.1861
Target is 1.1300
Risk is 80 pips
Reward is 481 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 6.0

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade down from the top of a large trend - Wave 1 down.
  • #2,626
  • Jan 12, 2007 12:55pm Jan 12, 2007 12:55pm
Quoting Wallboroff
sorry i couldnīt answer earlier cause i was in college, god damn.

anyway it appears wave-c did its move up and will soon revers for the final large C-wave of a larger wave-4
the way it looks to me now is, that wave c of a larger wave-b is over and we are no in a large downtrend, the final wave-c of the overall corrective wav-4, i think.

fixmeīs price target of 1.9600 was a good one, i was having my sell order at this place. it is always hard to speak of a prediction because no one is able to predict the market for a 100 %.

  • #2,627
  • Jan 13, 2007 2:32am Jan 13, 2007 2:32am
Generally speaking, it appears to me that GBP/JPY will descend about 50 to 75 pips in a wave B of a downwards Wave 4 from its current price at 235.75 and then rise to a new high at about 236.50, which will be a trend high.

GBP/USD should drop about 40 to 50 pips from its current price at 1.9590 and then rise to a new high at about 1.9650.

This is a general outlook only, and very approximate, not a trade recommendation or trade experiment, based on Elliott Wave theory as I currently understand and apply it.
  • #2,628
  • Jan 13, 2007 2:42am Jan 13, 2007 2:42am
  •  khaled
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: A System is something u do EVERYDAY | 45 Posts
ITME - ---- I really do appreciate your efforts in this thread, i do rate it as the BEST JOURNAL on the net, i can't imagine now that i don't read your thoughts for one day!!
  • #2,629
  • Edited 2:39am Jan 14, 2007 1:57am | Edited 2:39am
Hi Itme,
I agree totally with the previous post that you thread is the best regarding its content and its educational value , imho of course.
Cheer.
  • #2,630
  • Jan 14, 2007 2:45pm Jan 14, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting itme
Friday, January 12 at 6:15 ET

Adjust Entry Price for Trade Experiment #311 Sell USD/CHF to 1.2575

_____________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Thursday January 11, 2006 at 10:45 ET
Trade Experiment #311 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2513
Stop is 1.2586
Target is 1.1900
Risk is 77 pips
Reward is 609 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 7.9

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : excellent

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade the third wave of Wave 3 down (see one day chart). Perhaps the Zionists or neocons will drop some nuclear bombs on Iran, which will precipitate a rapid decline in USD/CHF.

__________________________________________________ _
__________________________________________________ ____

Previous predictions:

USD/CHF Wave Hypothesis for December 26, 2006 at 17:00 ET:

A downwards impulse wave since October 16, 2006 at 1.2770 is carrying USD/CHF towards 1.1450 in a few months (an 11.5% decline). This is part of a larger downtrend that began February 28, 2006 at 1.3235. At that time, employing Elliott Wave and Q System analysis, I predicted a strong downturn targetting about 1.1300, a 17% decline.

The current uptrend that began December 5, 2006 is headed to between 1.2300 and 1.2400, at which point we will be blessed by a very favorable short trading opportunity with low risk and high reward potential.

The short term current pattern is amenable to a variety of different wave interpretations, so the certainty level is low. We could see a decline from here to the 1.2100 area, as Trade Experiment #297 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2220 is predicated upon. Or we could see a rise to 1.2300

My guess is that the price of USD/CHF will rise from its current value at 1.2230 up to 1.2250, then fall to 1.2205, then rise to about 1.2300. Then it will begin its larger move down to about 1.2050, which would present a favorable trading opportunity.
hi itme, i did a quick research on USD/CHF and i am a little confused. i too got a sell oportunity but at 1.2615, so probably at 1.2600, end of wave-3. it then should retrace either 38,2 or 61,8%, this would be wave-4.

i could be wrong, but it looks like USD/CHF is in an uptrend.
  • #2,631
  • Jan 14, 2007 3:09pm Jan 14, 2007 3:09pm
but as you said we are in a large downtrend of wave-3. my idea of an uptrend is only meant for the correction wave 2 of the larger wave-3.

sorry for the confusion.
  • #2,632
  • Jan 14, 2007 3:19pm Jan 14, 2007 3:19pm
another theory would be, that we have seen wave-3, are now in wave-4, it then should go up to 1,2615 and then we are in wave-3 of a larger wave-3 in a downtrend.

i hope itīs no to complicated, i know itīs hard to understand without a chart picture
  • #2,633
  • Jan 14, 2007 3:56pm Jan 14, 2007 3:56pm
Hi Everyone,

Here's what I see on the 1H NZDUSD. I'm not too sure on the wave count as I can see wave 3 also as a wave 5.

Can you guys post what you see on the NZDUSD?

Regards
Attached Image
  • #2,634
  • Edited 3:47am Jan 15, 2007 2:59am | Edited 3:47am
Monday January 15 at 4:45 ET

Trade Experiment #312 Sell GBP/JPY at 236.60

Stop is 237.16

Target is 232.50

Risk is 65 pips

Reward is 401 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 6.2

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade the fourth wave of Wave 3 down.

p.s. - recent high is 236.97. Our targeting system gives 236.95 as a high probability reversal marker. The short term wave pattern indicates the stop should be raised 20 pips to 237.36, however, which will still not spoil the RRR of the trade. In retrospect, the original entry price should have been set more conservatively at 236.95.

_________________________________________________
_________________________________________________

Previous comment:

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY General Outlook for Sunday / Monday

Generally speaking, it appears to me that GBP/JPY will descend about 50 to 75 pips in a wave B of a downwards Wave 4 from its current price at 235.75 and then rise to a new high at about 236.50, which will be a trend high.

GBP/USD should drop about 40 to 50 pips from its current price at 1.9590 and then rise to a new high at about 1.9650.

This is a general outlook only, and very approximate, not a trade recommendation or trade experiment, based on Elliott Wave theory as I currently understand and apply it.
  • #2,635
  • Jan 15, 2007 3:23am Jan 15, 2007 3:23am
Prediction for USD/JPY for Monday 4:00 ET

USD/JPY will likely descend from its current price at 120.50 to about 120.00 (or a bit lower) in a wave C of a downwards Wave 4 and then continue its long uptrend to a high of about 121.50 to 122.00.
  • #2,636
  • Edited 5:17pm Jan 15, 2007 3:36am | Edited 5:17pm
Prediction for USD/CHF for Monday 4:00 ET

USD/CHF will likely descend from its current price at 1.2455 to about 1.2435 (or a bit lower) in the final fifth wave of a wave C of a downwards Wave 4 and then continue its long uptrend to a high of about 1.2550 to 1.2600.
  • #2,637
  • Edited 4:28am Jan 15, 2007 4:06am | Edited 4:28am
Hi Itme,

It seems to me that GBP/JPY will target above 238 first before finishing its big wave 5 since early Oct 2006, but counting the waves for this pair is always difficult so I might be wrong. Just my opinion.
Thanks alot for your frequent updates.


Quoting itme
Monday January 15 at 4:45 ET

Trade Experiment #312 Sell GBP/JPY at 236.60

Stop is 237.16

Target is 232.50

Risk is 65 pips

Reward is 401 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 6.2

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade the fourth wave of Wave 3 down.

p.s. - recent high is 236.97. Our targeting system gives 236.95 as a high probability reversal marker. The short term wave pattern indicates the stop should be raised 20 pips to 237.36, however, which will still not spoil the RRR of the trade. In retrospect, the original entry price should have been set more conservatively at 236.95.

_________________________________________________
_________________________________________________

Previous comment:

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY General Outlook for Sunday / Monday

Generally speaking, it appears to me that GBP/JPY will descend about 50 to 75 pips in a wave B of a downwards Wave 4 from its current price at 235.75 and then rise to a new high at about 236.50, which will be a trend high.

GBP/USD should drop about 40 to 50 pips from its current price at 1.9590 and then rise to a new high at about 1.9650.

This is a general outlook only, and very approximate, not a trade recommendation or trade experiment, based on Elliott Wave theory as I currently understand and apply it.
Tra-X
  • #2,638
  • Jan 15, 2007 1:37pm Jan 15, 2007 1:37pm
GBP/USD and GBP/JPY General Outlook for Monday / Tuesday

 What actually happened is that GBP/JPY descended as predicted about 79 pips in a wave B of a downwards Wave 4 from its previous price at 235.75 to 234.96 and then rose to a new high at about 236.98, 48 pips higher than predicted, which could be a trend high.

-----------------------------------

GBP/USD dropped only about 20 pips from its previous price at 1.9590 (not 40 to 50 pips as predicted) to 1.9570 and then rose to a new high at about 1.9666, 16 pips higher than predicted.

GBP/USD is expected to continue its current uptrend to about 1.9700 before reversing for a Wave 4 reversal, carrying the price down to about 1.9550, before heading up to the ultimate high of about 1.9800 for the Wave 3 segment of this upwards pattern.

This is a general outlook only, and very approximate, not a trade recommendation or trade experiment, based on Elliott Wave theory as I currently understand and apply it.
_____________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________

Previous update:

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY General Outlook for Sunday / Monday

Generally speaking, it appears to me that GBP/JPY will descend about 50 to 75 pips in a wave B of a downwards Wave 4 from its current price at 235.75 and then rise to a new high at about 236.50, which will be a trend high.

GBP/USD should drop about 40 to 50 pips from its current price at 1.9590 and then rise to a new high at about 1.9650.

This is a general outlook only, and very approximate, not a trade recommendation or trade experiment, based on Elliott Wave theory as I currently understand and apply it.
  • #2,639
  • Edited Jan 16, 2007 1:30am Jan 15, 2007 2:33pm | Edited Jan 16, 2007 1:30am
Tue. 1/16

4:30am GBP CPI m/m 0.4% 0.3%

 4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 1.7% 1.6%

 4:30am GBP RPI m/m 0.5% 0.3%

 5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -12.0 -19.0

 5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -5.0 -3.0

 8:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index 18.0 23.1

 9:00am CAD Interest Rate Statement 4.25% 4.25%

 4:45pm NZD CPI q/q -0.1% 0.7%

During the Memorial Holiday, the market traded sideways with no key news expected and low trading volume. Central Bank rate outlook updated last week remains the driver of the market. The euro still stays below 1.2950, while the sterling hovers above 1.96 against the dollar on Monday.

The European Central Bank is not expected to raise rates next month after ECB President Trichet had a dovish speech at the post-meeting conference last week. Since recent data showed the economy in the euro zone grows as expected, the ECB is still likely to raise rates by a quarter percent in March.
  • #2,640
  • Jan 15, 2007 5:26pm Jan 15, 2007 5:26pm
Prediction for USD/CHF for Monday January 15 at 18:00 ET

USD/CHF descended from its previous price at 1.2455 to 1.2443 (not quite as far down as "about 1.2435 (or a bit lower)" as predicted) in the final fifth wave of a wave C of a downwards Wave 4 and then continued its long uptrend to an interim high of 1.2495, on its way presumably to our predicted target of "about 1.12550 to 1.2600".

______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________

Previous post:

Prediction for USD/CHF for Monday 4:00 ET

USD/CHF will likely descend from its current price at 1.2455 to about 1.2435 (or a bit lower) in the final fifth wave of a wave C of a downwards Wave 4 and then continue its long uptrend to a high of about 1.12550 to 1.2600.
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