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  • #221
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:16pm Feb 19, 2008 6:16pm
If we enter the 1.5500 region, I'll be long big time, perhaps with a slightly larger leverage than usual. I'll be looking for a pattern similar those found in July and November before the big sell offs:

at the 30M time frame I'll be looking for a forceful move toward the 1.5500
, then a bullish flag forming. If stochastics work out, migh be a nice trade.

The daily time frame should show a tweaser pattern.

If this is at all a possibility I'd stay up late for this one, if I had to.

scexglobal
  • #222
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:20pm Feb 19, 2008 6:20pm
Sold kiwi at 7984 FWIW.

The holding period on this one could be 2 weeks or so.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #223
  • Feb 19, 2008 8:09pm Feb 19, 2008 8:09pm
I just reloaded aussie longs at 9170. Will keep adding lower. Tgt 9300+ by weeks end.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #224
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:14pm Feb 19, 2008 10:14pm
added aussie long at 9150.

I'm normally very cautious about stacking into a losing position. This is just an exception because I have high confidence about this trade.
Price, so far, bounced directly off 50% of this weeks range. It would be nice if this turns out to be the daily low.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #225
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:18pm Feb 19, 2008 10:18pm
I'll be a son of a bitch! tomorrow might tell the tale...my patience ran out, while thh charts said wait until at least tomorrow.

Not sure what to do...thought about AUDUSD long, but how can I after all the negative research I drummed up...lol

wow.

Gonna keep looking I think theeris an opportunity out there somewhere.


EDIT:
Long 2 minis to share the ride TX.
  • #226
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:38pm Feb 19, 2008 10:38pm
aud basically is made strong by investors.
australia not near size of economies like germany, france, uk or usa....

so if equities keep falling... even if RBA keep threatening to raise.
aussie can get soldoff hard.
wait for another 2 dow close sin negative and maybe you will see what will happen to aud/usd
  • #227
  • Feb 19, 2008 11:16pm Feb 19, 2008 11:16pm
Hanging on...

Also long GBPCAD...

Both look like potential bounces, for different reasons.

=/
  • #228
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:25am Feb 20, 2008 12:25am
Hedged my possie at 9141.

Break of 9144 leaves 9100 vunerable. I'll post when I remove the hedge and add another long.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #229
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:10am Feb 20, 2008 1:10am
Quoting TexasforEX
Hedged my possie at 9141.

Break of 9144 leaves 9100 vunerable. I'll post when I remove the hedge and add another long.
Hedge off, long added at 9154 FWIW
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #230
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:57am Feb 20, 2008 1:57am
A very simple measured move projection has the Aussie moving up to 9316/9328 (depending how you use this spike below 9144).

That'd be sweet!
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #231
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:20am Feb 20, 2008 4:20am
Seeing a potential three wave correction from 9200 - 9140 -9170 and would target 9100

Went flat here at BE, need break above 9170 to void this 3 wave...FWIW
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #232
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:54pm Feb 20, 2008 4:54pm
3 wave correction happened and the retracement stopped just above my projection. With US CPI a point higher I waited to reenter into long Aussie for a bit and now hold long from 9170 still target 9300+ by weeks end.

Something I'm keeping an eye on is kiwi. I suppose there can be partial divergence between aud and nzd but if 9300 aussie prints I'm very curious where kiwi will be.

"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #233
  • Edited 8:49pm Feb 20, 2008 6:51pm | Edited 8:49pm
AUD is too over extended right now for me. managed to get out of that drunken long last night with nary a scratch...but it was wild ride in the AM.

I am short USDCAD now. Resized my lots so I have little more flexibility on laddering and can carry a can carry a couple positions at a time. (edit covered-7)

Also long EURCHF a bit of bottom fishing perhaps. (edit added)
  • #234
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:03am Feb 21, 2008 2:03am
As annoying as getting stopped out at BE is....I gotta do it. Stopped at 9170 on Aussie. There is still a move to be done this week, but I'll wait for the set up....again.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #235
  • Feb 21, 2008 4:14pm Feb 21, 2008 4:14pm
Couple of daily doji's on the aussie. More reasons to keep an open mind.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #236
  • Feb 22, 2008 2:01am Feb 22, 2008 2:01am
Quoting TexasforEX
Couple of daily doji's on the aussie. More reasons to keep an open mind.
True. Also, daily MACD histogram is once again divergent (just as it was during both the July peak and the October peak). When this falls, it has a tendency to drop like a rock. 650 pips off the table in just 3 days back in early Nov. -1000 pips in 7 sessions last August.

I'd say a 400 pip correction is in the cards whenever the equity markets finally decide to stop ignoring what's been happening to CDX spreads the past 48 hours..
  • #237
  • Feb 22, 2008 6:39am Feb 22, 2008 6:39am
Quoting Trader KGB
True. Also, daily MACD histogram is once again divergent (just as it was during both the July peak and the October peak). When this falls, it has a tendency to drop like a rock. 650 pips off the table in just 3 days back in early Nov. -1000 pips in 7 sessions last August.

I'd say a 400 pip correction is in the cards whenever the equity markets finally decide to stop ignoring what's been happening to CDX spreads the past 48 hours..
Right back to the 100ema on the AJ
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #238
  • Feb 22, 2008 3:46pm Feb 22, 2008 3:46pm
EUR/AUD broke out of a 4 day channel (which slanted toward the EUR). Probably due to the late equity rally.
  • #239
  • Feb 22, 2008 5:46pm Feb 22, 2008 5:46pm
Kiwi finally broke out of the channel to the upside. With the previous, albeit brief, break downside, the channel will probably hold little signifigance going forward.
Aussie is tenuously bullish and I think .9170-.9400 should be expected next week.

I say "tenuous" because there are two factors that will, eventually, cause sudden and deep spikes down.
1. Risk Aversion, Carry Unwinds, Equities weakening, etc.....

2. Soft Labor numbers will arrive down under sooner or later. When they do longs better beware.

Fundamentally, it looks as though both will be supported by strong gold. Inflation is becoming an issue everywhere...China, Eurozone, USA and UK. As long as inflation is a worry gold will be supported and in turn will support the twins down under.

I did a S&R on kiwi at 8028 and hold long aussie from 9190 FWIW. Have a good weekend.

"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #240
  • Feb 22, 2008 5:57pm Feb 22, 2008 5:57pm
Well the AJ broke above the 100 ema and closed around 4pips above it at 98.92 this really opens up the 100.97 and 103 area. With no major data out, if the exuberance we saw prior to DJIA closing continues in Asia we could see this happen over the first two trading days. Of course the major problem, as TexasForex alluded to is risk aversion, and with US Housing on tap for Monday we might go right back down to 94. I'm long from 98.33 so let's see what Sunday brings.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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