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GBP/JPY for QQE Traders!

  • #1,701
  • Edited 9:45am Feb 19, 2008 9:30am | Edited 9:45am
Dow is up, going up. GJ falling...

Edit: nevermind... Dow is falling now a bit too.
  • #1,702
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:49am Feb 19, 2008 9:49am
Quoting Nobitacu
Dow is up, going up. GJ falling...

Edit: nevermind... Dow is falling now a bit too.
Ehm so when Dow goes up GBP/JPY goes down? I thought it went the same direction.
  • #1,703
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:57am Feb 19, 2008 9:57am
Quoting SimonJ
Ehm so when Dow goes up GBP/JPY goes down? I thought it went the same direction.
That's what I thought too. But now I notice, there's a big lag between them. Dow moves much slower than GJ, at least for today, GJ moves then Dow follows, or at least, it took a longer time before we can actually say Dow is moving down than GJ. Now Dow is up a little, so GJ is up a little.
  • #1,704
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:00am Feb 19, 2008 10:00am
Quoting Nobitacu
That's what I thought too. But now I notice, there's a big lag between them. Dow moves much slower than GJ, at least for today, GJ moves then Dow follows, or at least, it took a longer time before we can actually say Dow is moving down than GJ. Now Dow is up a little, so GJ is up a little.
Don't put all of your thoughts into the g/j correlating with the DOW. It will disconnect from time to time, and it is not a perfect correlation. I don't know if you remember back in December, but the dow totally disconnected from the g/j for about 3 weeks.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #1,705
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:03am Feb 19, 2008 10:03am
Dow Corelation with gbp/jpy

"Its called the famous carry trade: investors borrow yen, i.e sell it to fund stock positions. in the recent subprime storm inverstors unwinded their positions, i.e they sold their stocks because they were afraid and didnt want to hold risky positions and bought back the yen"
  • #1,706
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:38am Feb 19, 2008 10:38am
Somebody say a joke .. i'm sleepy
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  • #1,707
  • Feb 19, 2008 11:46am Feb 19, 2008 11:46am
Quoting venci
Somebody say a joke .. i'm sleepy
sleepy is right.
Stayed up till 6am.....damn, that's ridiculous.

Well, I'm back to the land of the living on 3 hours sleep.

Looking over things.

Going off the 1H I posted a few hours ago.
We had a pefect 38.2 retrace 3 hours ago.

1H and is about to cross up.
4H is close behind.

Once 4H crosses up, we should be good for the 211.4-211.6 area for later today.

Will check back in a little bit.
  • #1,708
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:09pm Feb 19, 2008 1:09pm
Here's a 1H chart.

We had the 38.2 fib hit a few hours ago.
She's staying above the lower TL nicely.
QQE, Stoch and CCI are crossed up.
Usually good for at least 100 pips here. 300 or so when 4H turns up, which is on her way.

50.0 fib and DP are right on top of each other and will provide tough Resistance.

I'll set my small position TP there, and wait to see if she falls back to 210.4 area.
If she drops and stalls up there, I'll add more long positions with 213.4 area as the final TP for that move.

I'll keep my 208.9 Long until 214/217 area.

Triple Swap day coming up...... ;-)

My shorts from 213, 212 and 211s paid out nicely at 209.0
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  • #1,709
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:47pm Feb 19, 2008 1:47pm
Well, right after MPC Member Barker spoke, GJ started to drop again. Wonder how far this one will go before going back up again.
  • #1,710
  • Feb 19, 2008 2:13pm Feb 19, 2008 2:13pm
Hi, I have just noticed that the LSR B0.4 has been replaced by a later version. Couldnt seem to find it on Aus's strategy page or in the paperclip of attachments.
Could I trouble someone to link it here for me?

regards, D.
where thought goes energy flows
  • #1,711
  • Feb 19, 2008 2:29pm Feb 19, 2008 2:29pm
Here you go.
Edit: lol forgot attachment
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MT4-LevelStop-Reverse-v1.mq4   12 KB | 332 downloads
  • #1,712
  • Feb 19, 2008 2:32pm Feb 19, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting SimonJ
Here you go.
Edit: lol forgot attachment
regards. D
where thought goes energy flows
  • #1,713
  • Feb 19, 2008 3:29pm Feb 19, 2008 3:29pm
Quoting SimonJ
Here you go.
Edit: lol forgot attachment
Thanks, I haven't updated mine, so I'll do that now as well. What's the difference though with this version and the old one I was using? Just some bug fixes?
  • #1,714
  • Feb 19, 2008 4:39pm Feb 19, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting Nobitacu
That's what I thought too. But now I notice, there's a big lag between them. Dow moves much slower than GJ, at least for today, GJ moves then Dow follows, or at least, it took a longer time before we can actually say Dow is moving down than GJ. Now Dow is up a little, so GJ is up a little.
I spent a few weeks trying to get a better understanding of the Dow / G/J correlation. At first I was doing the same thing you’re doing here. But it doesn’t take long to realize that any exact “mirroring” between the Dow and G/J is only temporary, and not all that predictable. It also doesn’t take long to realize that you can’t come up with an effective scalping strategy for it, based on minor Dow fluctuations. Both of these findings can be a step in the right direction, as long as you don’t spend much time on it. That’s because they help clarify things, and remove some misconceptions.

To understand things even better, you need to start with this simple fact: G/J price is derived from two different currency pairs, G/U and U/J. If you multiply the price of G/U by the price of U/J, you will arrive at the price of G/J. Looked at another way, GJ = GU * UJ.

From my observations, it’s U/J’s price that is highly influenced by the Dow, especially during NY session. When G/U is in a tight range, or slowly trending, it’s mostly U/J that causes G/J to move. This is when you see a strong correlation between G/J and the Dow. U/J follows the Dow, and G/J follows U/J. It’s an indirect relationship. On some days you can compare 15 minute charts of G/J and U/J, and they look almost identical. If you then compare them with the Dow, you notice G/J and U/J peaks and valleys are in sync with the Dow for that day. But this nice little correlation starts to crumble on days when G/U price moves around a lot. Remember it’s the other half of G/J.

If you look at larger time frames, the correlation between G/J and the Dow is also the strongest when G/U is stable. People started noticing the correlation while the Pound was strong, stable, and slowing trending upward. But as soon the Pound started becoming unstable (see last December), the correlation ceased to exist. The exact same reasons apply here, as they do on the smaller time frames. U/J was still following the Dow upwards, but G/J wasn’t following it anymore because it was being pulled in the opposite direction by G/U. The Dow would rally strong, but G/J price would remain the same or even go down, because G/U was tanking badly. This was when talk about a “disconnect” began.

But it’s also an oversimplification to think that U/J just follows the Dow around. Lots of times that’s true during NY session. But its also influenced by carry trades, fundamental news, and the Nikkei stock index during Asian session. It also reacts like any other currency pair to support and resistance levels (fibs and moving averages). So it’s not a perfect mirror either, and nobody claims that it is.

All in all, the Dow (and the Nikkei to a lesser extent) are still considered good indicators for G/J, especially during NY and Asian sessions. But they shouldn’t be considered fool proof, or given more importance than they deserve. It's just another tool set for you to use or not, as you see fit. The time when it's most noticeable is when there's a big stock market rally or fall.
  • #1,715
  • Feb 19, 2008 4:41pm Feb 19, 2008 4:41pm
Anybody that gets their indicators from this web site, is getting the most recent version. You can also read about some of the LSR bug fixes:

http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslanco/downloads.htm
  • #1,716
  • Edited 6:06pm Feb 19, 2008 5:55pm | Edited 6:06pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Anybody that gets their indicators from this web site, is getting the most recent version. You can also read about some of the LSR bug fixes:

http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslanco/downloads.htm
Hi Pips Cruiser, thanks for Dow Geepy correlation analisis.

About LSR, I am not able to find that info at the above link, just a mesage Squeege is a replacement for LSR to be used with new BETA Momentum Strategy when available. Could you tell me (or re-direct me) to that info.

Thanks in advance, Fer

p.d: did you email Auslanco regarding the changes on his last version of the 15 min Strat....
  • #1,717
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:26pm Feb 19, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting indio
Hi Pips Cruiser, thanks for Dow Geepy correlation analisis.

About LSR, I am not able to find that info at the above link, just a mesage Squeege is a replacement for LSR to be used with new BETA Momentum Strategy when available. Could you tell me (or re-direct me) to that info.

Thanks in advance, Fer

p.d: did you email Auslanco regarding the changes on his last version of the 15 min Strat....
Ahh . . . that's in VT Trader section. It's been good all along. Only the MT4 LSR has gone through changes. To read about the MT4 changes, read from the second paragraph on through the first half of the web page (download section).

P.S. - We don't use Squeege in the 15 min strategy. It's for something else entirely.

  • #1,718
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:49pm Feb 19, 2008 6:49pm
Looks like price is hanging around in the 50% retrace area from yesterday's fall. The Asian pivot is in the same general area. I have a couple longs from early this morning that are waiting to take profit at R1. So I'd like to see that happen today. But if need be, I can wait until tomorrow.

Let's see how things develop . . .

  • #1,719
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:01pm Feb 19, 2008 7:01pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Ahh . . . that's in VT Trader section. It's been good all along. Only the MT4 LSR has gone through changes. To read about the MT4 changes, read from the second paragraph on through the first half of the web page (download section).

P.S. - We don't use Squeege in the 15 min strategy. It's for something else entirely.

THANKS AGAIN FOR YOUR GREAT HELP.
  • #1,720
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:13pm Feb 19, 2008 7:13pm
kujo I need help.How do you use the fibs? Ok I want to project them from the daily chart, when do I say it's now retracing? swing low and swing high?just use the normal GBPJPY chart on a daily and 4H chart. U don't have to post the chart just give the swing hhighs and lows I looked at a few materials but I still think you are the best with fib analysis that I have to give to you. why don't you write something on fib analysis so we can just refer to it as opposed to bugging you?
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