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  • #201
  • Edited 6:33am Feb 19, 2008 6:23am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
looks like 50 resistance held up for now.
Yep, but remember AJ moves along with the Dow so we might see a break with more positive equities sentiment. Watching for a break of 99.54 on the 1hr. If that busts then 101 is definitely happening today
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #202
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:39am Feb 19, 2008 6:39am
Getting another head of steam...

this is crazy.

My EURAUD is certainly in the red, however euro strength propping it up for now. If EURO continues towards 1.50 I should be okay, unless AUDUSD comes along for the ride to .95ish.

This sucks, but what can I do...this trade was profitable in the first 15 mins of holding it, now I am crawling out of the basement...again.

EURAUD needs to get over 1.60...it can't get a break. AUDUSD did just hit trendline resistant with a spike on the M15 though. Keep hope alive.

If AUDUSD rolls over this trade could work out, big time.
  • #203
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:45am Feb 19, 2008 6:45am
The Aussie is at somewhat of a crossroads. Technically it could go 80 pips either way from here. Basically, I'll keep it simple and look to go contra whichever way it moves. Only if it goes flat and consolidates again for the rest of the trading day will I void this strategy.

I took much of my profit around 9225/8015 FWIW
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #204
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:51am Feb 19, 2008 6:51am
Nice trade bro.

Rule I broke when took this position, #1 Are there any visitors or distractions for the day.

(Historically I found that whenever people were visiting us, I always made hasty costly trades - even with equities. I missed a 200K once because my father-in-law was over my shoulder and I decided to "take profit" to look like a bigshot. Within a couple weeks the stock skyrockets and my 5000 shares instead of being worth 40K could have been worth 240K. It took me years to get over that. On the other hand, at taht point in my life, that kind of money might have killed me.)

Last friday, the kids were home from school, I closed my EURUSD long for profit, and looked another position, EURAUD. It was looking good, but was to be a short term trade. I got distracted doing soethign for the kids came back to find I missed the spike, and you know the rest of the story...

anyway, 80 pips down should be enough to get me in the black...

have a great day.
  • #205
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:23am Feb 19, 2008 7:23am
Thanks Ticker,

Sounds like you need a good locksmith and go to "blackout" trading. :::
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #206
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:50am Feb 19, 2008 7:50am
Quoting TexasforEX
Thanks Ticker,

Sounds like you need a good locksmith and go to "blackout" trading. :::

That's hilarious!

I like the added risk of multitasking...I guess. Shooting from the hip.
  • #207
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:59am Feb 19, 2008 7:59am
The goose is getting grounded today. Good R/R trade with oil strong and price sitting right below nice resistance. 50% of move from 1.0377 - .9870 comes in at 1.0124 and has held since the end of Jan08. Tight stops on this one.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #208
  • Feb 19, 2008 8:09am Feb 19, 2008 8:09am
Quoting TexasforEX
The goose is getting grounded today. Good R/R trade with oil strong and price sitting right below nice resistance. 50% of move from 1.0377 - .9870 comes in at 1.0124 and has held since the end of Jan08. Tight stops on this one.
So much for that one.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #209
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:36am Feb 19, 2008 10:36am
I may have missed my bounce to get out with minimal loss...I was so close to pulling the trigger. At support right now, here's to EurAud strength. *gulp*

A test of .91 with EURUSD bouncing to 1.48+ would put me in the clear, easily. H4 makes it looks possible.
  • #210
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:57am Feb 19, 2008 10:57am
AJ going to test the 99.50 resistance yet again for the 4th time on the 4hr chart. If that breaks perhaps a 101 is on the offer.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #211
  • Feb 19, 2008 11:11am Feb 19, 2008 11:11am
Quoting DutchTrader
AJ going to test the 99.50 resistance yet again for the 4th time on the 4hr chart. If that breaks perhaps a 101 is on the offer.
I think the 200-day SMA is going to play a pivotal role. Ever since that huge gap down in Oct, AJ has tried numerous times to reclaim the 200-day and reversed. A breakout above puts the all-time high back in the lineup.
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  • #212
  • Feb 19, 2008 11:19am Feb 19, 2008 11:19am
Quoting Trader KGB
I think the 200-day SMA is going to play a pivotal role. Ever since that huge gap down in Oct, AJ has tried numerous times to reclaim the 200-day and reversed. A breakout above puts the all-time high back in the lineup.
Good call@KGB. Equities are being dampened by Oil's 100 barrier attack so we might have to wait till Asia. I'm still holding a long so it's no biggie. Lecture time.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #213
  • Feb 19, 2008 11:30am Feb 19, 2008 11:30am
If Buying AUDUSD right now, depending on your source currency (for this argument we will use dollars).

7%-3% return, net 4%.

If you buy AUDUSD today @.9206, how much of a drop would nullify the return on the rollover rates.

.9206 * .96 (4% decrease) = .8837

Keep in might this excludes any leverage and assume all cash.

After the seemingly contradictory comments by Governor Edey, the second half might be slow (which raises the question why raise interest rates if forecast for slowing/flattening is ahead, it takes that long for the rates to sink in), you have to wonder why they raised and are so blatantly hawkish.

With this potential risk scenerio, do you buy AUD bonds at the top? Or do you sell at the top and buy other countries less over inflated fixed income and interest yielding vehicles while they are weak?

As someone has mentioned though, timing is everything, so I don't mean to make assumptions, justify or rationalize, just pointing out something.
  • #214
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:21pm Feb 19, 2008 1:21pm
AUDUSD - break below .9183 (and sustained) would be a dream for me.

don't make me beg for it...hehe.
  • #215
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:38pm Feb 19, 2008 1:38pm
Quoting TexasforEX
The goose is getting grounded today. Good R/R trade with oil strong and price sitting right below nice resistance. 50% of move from 1.0377 - .9870 comes in at 1.0124 and has held since the end of Jan08. Tight stops on this one.
After I saw this resistance fall, I did a S & R and hold a long from 1.014. Most times when I see a definite line of support/resistance, which is also at least a 4HR fibo fall I'll trade it. I'm in the green, but really surprised the goose is tanking with oil knocking on $100. I hate to close out a breakout so soon but I keep thinking crude $100 crude $100.

Loonie analysis welcome.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #216
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:51pm Feb 19, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Kiwi is getting dangerously close to breaking out of it's channel. Today's daily close will be a clue towards determining breakout status or not. A daily pin, with a high around 8020/8040 and a close below 8000 would leave the door cracked for a return to the range.


Barring a miracle close kiwi is going to have a big ole daily pin. This potential top would fall within the slope of the ascending upper trendline of the channel. Can't help but be thinking about a potential reversal.

"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #217
  • Feb 19, 2008 2:02pm Feb 19, 2008 2:02pm
in regard to technical analist oposed to fundimental ,
i think this thread could be used very well to combine our knowledge re our countrys economic poition THROUGH OUR PAPERS AND TV

for example MY COUNTRYS CURRENT ECONOMIC NEWS -- BRIEF AUSIE DOLLAR LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG TILL JULY DUE TO ANTICIPATED 50 POINT HIGHER AJUSTMENT OF INTEREST UP COMMING

EXPORTS PRICES OF MINERAL PRICES LIKELY TO INCREASE DRAMATICALY TO JAPAN, CAUSING FAVOURABLE BALANCE OF PAYEMENTS TO AUSTRALIA , ECT

NOW AS I ALREADTY HAVE A THREAD GOING , THIS WOULD BE A VERY GREAT AREA TO SHARE OUR FUNDIMENTALS OF OUR COUNTRYS ECONOMIC
SITUATIONS.

now ifyou are interested why im so enthusiastic of this thread . in a video i made for my thread i describe some basic methods of training the forex using both the data of technicaland fundimental together

for those that are intersted in the basics of trading the forex here is a video i made
Please keep the following link for your records in case your recipient misplaces it. The link will expire in 14 Days and will be available for 500 number of downloads.
Link: http://www.yousendit.com/download/ww...Q3RxRTNIRGc9PQ

Now please do not detrack from this thread as i believe the writter of this thread has created a Brilliant way to share our fundimental data

thank you so much

From Brian
  • #218
  • Feb 19, 2008 2:15pm Feb 19, 2008 2:15pm
Thank you Brijon,

I sincerely appreciate the kind words.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #219
  • Feb 19, 2008 2:16pm Feb 19, 2008 2:16pm
SOld the EURAUD long at 1.6020 for a hefty loss, but beats selling for a HUGE loss that might be coming down the pipe.

I'll look to buy back at 1.56 maybe.

Back to the grind.

I was $100 away from break even for the year after taking a 30% loss earlier in the year on a GBPUSD long. This loss pales in comparison at $350, so $450 to grind back to even for the year.

Damn, it's like whenever i get one of my "big schemes" I shold do the opposite. For the record, last year I did over 400% on my equity, so I am not stupid, just having a run of hard luck.

Ack!
  • #220
  • Feb 19, 2008 4:05pm Feb 19, 2008 4:05pm
Quick scalp on AUDJPY before soccer...baby steps back to the promised land
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