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Simplest system ever

  • #61
  • Feb 15, 2008 6:30am Feb 15, 2008 6:30am
This is not a good day for this strategy. Oh well.
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  • #62
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:19am Feb 18, 2008 8:19am
Quoting bullrock
This is not a good day for this strategy. Oh well.
So basically the system again plays out nicely. Because we have closed with a lower low the Friday. I just went short the GU. And so far so good. There is also a system update on the first post.
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  • #63
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:18am Feb 19, 2008 9:18am
Quoting bullrock
Yep. Basically if we just use the higher low/lower low rule and nothing else. There is a 53% chanche that the day will close in our favour. I havent said anything about the daily volatility and such just that IT WILL CLOSE IN OUR FAVOUR. Also I have made calculations regarding the "missed pips".

So if we keep on AVERAGE the SL at 59 pips then we are ok. The AVERAGE profit with this system is 70 pips on a successfull day. That means that 47% of the time we loose 59 pips and 53% of the time we make 70 pips. Do the math and we get an evrage system. If we add the volatility factor that is that the GU can "fly" 200 pips in our direction just to fall back 130 pips then there is the rationale behind my take profit strategy.

So the setup could be as follows
If low is higher than previously buy. SL 59 from open. TP 60,120,180 and 240 pips from open. Unit 5 leave until the end of day.

Short the reverse.
hey, if the above stats of 47% loss of 59 pips and 53% win of 70 pips still stands, it's not bad at all.......

it'll produce over 900 pips but is that in a month ?

or has the latest stats changed a lot ?
  • #64
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:50am Feb 19, 2008 9:50am
Quoting findcount
hey, if the above stats of 47% loss of 59 pips and 53% win of 70 pips still stands, it's not bad at all.......

it'll produce over 900 pips but is that in a month ?

or has the latest stats changed a lot ?
Well based on my calculations 1 unit/ no tp it has made 2000 pips between 2007/01 and 2007/10. I havent measured the enhnacements yet fully that is the TPs and the "leave at the end of the day open what you have if the signal is the same" rule. So you might be quite right.

But imagine this HYPTHETICAL scenarion.

Day 1.
Open 5 units.
EOD. 60+120 TP. + 3*40 pip floating

Day 2.
Open 5 Units.
EOD. 60+120 TP. + 180+240 from previous day 3*40 pip floating + 100 pip from previous day....

and so on...
At the end of the 5th bullish day you might have easily made up +1000 pips cumulative.

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  • #65
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:59am Feb 19, 2008 9:59am
The unit five is never closed at the end of each day only if you close everything becuse of the change of signal. So basically unit 5 rides th trend up/down from day 1. If you forget the market has to close higher/lower rule. Then you can have easily 5-10 day consecutive signal days....
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  • #66
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:34pm Feb 19, 2008 9:34pm
i wonder if the SL is kept below or above the daily bar might keep one in a profitable trade longer ? especially, with the up/down of Dow Jones having such a great influence nowadays..........of course, the risk is still 1 or 2 percent.
  • #67
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:23pm Feb 20, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting findcount
i wonder if the SL is kept below or above the daily bar might keep one in a profitable trade longer ? especially, with the up/down of Dow Jones having such a great influence nowadays..........of course, the risk is still 1 or 2 percent.
Good question. I was thinking initially just to continue everyday as it is. Except that if the new day has the same signal as the old day I would leave the remaining positions as they are and pull the SL to BE or to the SL of the new day. Something like that.
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  • #68
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:30pm Feb 20, 2008 12:30pm
I am going to post from today every day the positions and the cumulative p/l. We will see how it goes.
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  • #69
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:20pm Feb 20, 2008 3:20pm
What would happen if

1. Instead of using stop losses we would simply hedge.
2. Instead of using only one turn we would turn 2-3 or as many times as the market turns. This would help to avoid days when the sl/reversal is hit then to hit the sl again and then to ride 200 pips.
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  • #70
  • Feb 20, 2008 5:15pm Feb 20, 2008 5:15pm
Bullrock, we look for lower highs and higher lows to determine direction, what to do when we get an outside bar say in a downtrend which may have a higher high,lower low and higher close which would be considered bullish?
  • #71
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:04am Feb 21, 2008 2:04am
Quoting lastchance
Bullrock, we look for lower highs and higher lows to determine direction, what to do when we get an outside bar say in a downtrend which may have a higher high,lower low and higher close which would be considered bullish?
Yes. very good point. I am actually working on a system where every day we can determine with a certain probability the direction of the next bar ie price action. The lower low, higher low is the first element and this could be next ie inbar/outbar.

Thanks for the idea
I will post some stats later.

Regards
BR
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  • #72
  • Feb 13, 2009 4:47pm Feb 13, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting bullrock
I have run extensive analysis on the GBP/USD pair.
Result between 01/2007 and 10/2007 using the 15 min metatrader data resulted in approx 2000 pips if open is 8am in the morning and close is 8pm.
That is all. Hope this helps.

The analysis has been done using a C++ analytical code written by myself. This is raw system. Can be improved largely I believe.
Whenever you include time statements in an international forum please indicate which timezone you are referring to. For instance, when you say 8am to 8pm are you referring to GMT time? Or EST time? PST? MST?

Please let us know which as able.

Thank you.
  • #73
  • Feb 13, 2009 5:40pm Feb 13, 2009 5:40pm
Is it yesterday's close must be greater than yesterday's open?

Quoting bullrock
Hi gnllr

Ok. So.
Yesterday's low must be greater than the previous day's low. We do not care about the high (for long) AND yesterday's CLOSE must be greater than the OPEN.
  • #74
  • Feb 13, 2009 6:13pm Feb 13, 2009 6:13pm
4 visual (if i understood correct) prev.bars: higherlow&bool / lh&bear?
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File Type: mq4 hl_lh_oc_InsideBarsmod.mq4   2 KB | 427 downloads
  • #75
  • Last Post: Feb 13, 2009 7:00pm Feb 13, 2009 7:00pm
Bullrock, can you please post a couple charts of some trades?
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