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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #341
  • Feb 18, 2008 5:32pm Feb 18, 2008 5:32pm
Quoting freevey
(PM I received) I'll answer it here in case others have the same question. As discussed early in the thread, my "signal" line is the bar average. Just put 1SMA on "Median Price (HL/2)". Again... I only use 4H



BOGUS...Yes, I wait for the retracement bar to close. This way I know for sure that the valley is fixed, then (1) I determine my stop loss, then (2) determine if I feel I can easily do better than 1:1 risk/reward for T/P - if yes, then (3) place the buy stop order then (4) Attach the EA to manage the trade.
Thanks freevey.
  • #342
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:31pm Feb 18, 2008 6:31pm
Quoting dan_mir
Hi Kevin,
You are an honest guy !
I wanted to thanks you for the system you contributed here. I took it and some tips from the 1-2-3-4 system you gave the link here, and I try to make the best of it.
You showed us the way, we shall go on by ourselves from here.
Thanks,
Dani_M
BTW, Joshua lead the the Israeli people after Moses crossed them the desert, So, freevey, can we call you Joshua ?
Dani_M
Dani,

Thanks for thanking me. I'm glad you have found my time here helpful. I couldn't help but laugh at your analogy to Moses and Joshua. I'll be more than happy if freevey takes over, and I'll just chime in on important points. Forex Factory is too good to cut off completely

Regards,

Kevin
  • #343
  • Feb 18, 2008 10:20pm Feb 18, 2008 10:20pm
Hey Moses,... er... Kevin
I'd like to ask you a small favor though. Can you please take a quick look at my posts / chart on prev page and tell me if that's close to the way you still trade this method. If not... it wouldn't make much sense for me to take the thread in the direction I trade. Newcomers will start reading your thread, expect one thing... then get something else after 30 pages.

Your comments on what's similar or what's different would be much appreciated. At least that way, newcomers can see which direction the thread went.

I'm sure Moses told Joshua a few things about the people, before handing them over (umm... Is that what happened?... Well.. as longs as they all get rich in the end ). Thanks
  • #344
  • Feb 18, 2008 10:38pm Feb 18, 2008 10:38pm
Quoting freevey
Hey Moses,... er... Kevin
I'd like to ask you a small favor though. Can you please take a quick look at my posts / chart on prev page and tell me if that's close to the way you still trade this method. If not... it wouldn't make much sense for me to take the thread in the direction I trade. Newcomers will start reading your thread, expect one thing... then get something else after 30 pages.

Your comments on what's similar or what's different would be much appreciated. At least that way, newcomers can see which direction the thread went.

I'm sure Moses told Joshua a few things about the people, before handing them over (umm... Is that what happened?... Well.. as longs as they all get rich in the end ). Thanks
Freevey,

Feel free to do whatever you'd like man. I'd have to say, I've read your last posts and you've definitely got the right idea. I stated my purpose of this thread from post #1. To help you really notice your chart in its simplest form: naked. As long as this is the general theme of things, it's all good. If you would like to create something where you have a bit more ownership, go for it as well.

I would say that one thing that you are emphasizing that I never really did is to pay attention to Risk:Reward, which ultimately plays into Money Management. Also, you seem to have placed more emphasis on support/resistance which is also a very good idea. All in all, I'm impressed my friend, and I look forward to hearing from you in the future.

I myself have gone off in a different direction using shorter timeframes(5-minute) with similar methodology to keep me only in the market at 5-10 minute intervals.

Regards,

Kevin
  • #345
  • Feb 18, 2008 11:51pm Feb 18, 2008 11:51pm
Today was a rangy day. Is that a word? At least it was for EUR/USD that was caught between 1.4665 and 1.4645. It made for some sloppy short-term trading on my part, but later on when the break out occurred, I had a chance to make some good profits. Keeping losses small will take you far.
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  • #346
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:00am Feb 19, 2008 1:00am
  •  w_z
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: hand over them pips | 61 Posts
whoa whoa whoa...kevin

that's a lot of MA's. what happened to trading naked?
  • #347
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:40am Feb 19, 2008 1:40am
Hi Moses, Joshua and the rest of the people,
I have just read Mark Duoglas's book "Trading in the Zone" in order to help myself become a consistent profitable trader. He asked the readers to do a line of at least 20 trades following exactly the rules of the system in order to make us believe in our system, and to better know the Win/Lose ratio.
So, I started it this week, and I will post the results here. I'm looking at the 4H graphs, with any available pair as freevey suggested.

Date Pair L/S Profit Closing reason
Feb 18 UC S 30P TP
Feb 19 UC S 35P Manual TP

I will keep posting my results.
BR
Dani_M
  • #348
  • Feb 19, 2008 2:13am Feb 19, 2008 2:13am
Quoting dan_mir
Hi Moses, Joshua and the rest of the people,
I have just read Mark Duoglas's book "Trading in the Zone" in order to help myself become a consistent profitable trader. He asked the readers to do a line of at least 20 trades following exactly the rules of the system in order to make us believe in our system, and to better know the Win/Lose ratio.
So, I started it this week, and I will post the results here. I'm looking at the 4H graphs, with any available pair as freevey suggested.

Date Pair L/S Profit Closing reason
Feb 18 UC S 30P TP
Feb 19 UC S 35P Manual TP

I will keep posting my results.
BR
Dani_M
Good luck! I'll be watching you my friend!
A good trade is when I Break Even. A great trade is when I Take Profit.
  • #349
  • Feb 19, 2008 3:33am Feb 19, 2008 3:33am
Quoting Lou
freevey.

Thanks for giving this thread a transfusion. Thanks for the EA . However my account is not with an mt4 provider. Unless you know of one that allows micro lots. Then I might change from O. Sounds like you dont sleep much.
Lou, you can take a look at Alpari as well. I was tossing up between them and Oanda when I went live and ended up with Oanda; However, there are often times that I regret being with them though for various reasons but will stick it out for a bit longer.

Give Alpari a look over.

Oromis.
  • #350
  • Feb 19, 2008 5:38am Feb 19, 2008 5:38am
Freevey,

I was trying to understand your chart and was wondering if you could please clarify for me, my comment/questions in red.

Thanks and appreciate your help.
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  • #351
  • Feb 19, 2008 5:45am Feb 19, 2008 5:45am
i remember a thread asking where did all the old elite members of forexfactory go.......seems like they had their own websites......

anyway, Kevin's website is gonna be up soon ? also, will there be an entrance fee ?

sigh......looks like another loss to the forum........
  • #352
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:33am Feb 19, 2008 6:33am
Quote
According to the methodology, we will initiate a long order when a previous peak is broken. This is marked out by the red horizontal line on the chart that I have attached. However, on hindsight, the main uptrend started around 19 Feb 2006, and the trend would have well been in place by the time it broke the resistance (horizontal line).

May I ask how you determine the weekly trend in this case - by rising prices in general or only by the break of the previous peak? Does the same go for the daily trend?

TheHedge,

I personally use the break of the peak of the average line.....I rarely even have any bars on my charts...only 1 line...the average price
Hope this helps.

I also like Kevin have been absent for a few weeks and the reasoning for me was very simple.....I was spending way too much time away from trading and my focus on making money for my account....that may sound pretty selfish, but that is afterall why I am in this crazy game....

Many Pips to All
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #353
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:41am Feb 19, 2008 7:41am
Quoting swingtrade65
TheHedge,

I personally use the break of the peak of the average line.....I rarely even have any bars on my charts...only 1 line...the average price
Hope this helps.

I also like Kevin have been absent for a few weeks and the reasoning for me was very simple.....I was spending way too much time away from trading and my focus on making money for my account....that may sound pretty selfish, but that is afterall why I am in this crazy game....

Many Pips to All
Hi swingtrade,

Thanks for your reply. Your explanation has indeed cleared things up. Do you apply this to all timeframes including daily and 4-hourly, i.e. median price?

Do not worry about not being able to post often. Neither you nor Kevin are obliged to reply to every post here. In fact, we are all more than grateful for sharing your insights with us who desire to learn. Thanks to all.
  • #354
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:58am Feb 19, 2008 7:58am
People,
My broker, ODL (MT4), doesn't allow closing part of the trade, so managing take profit at several prices is impossible, unless you open multiple orders for the same trade and close them one by one as your trade advances.
Please take a look at the following link. this guy developed a brilliant tool that may make our lives much easier because it allows you to set the price, and the orders will be opened automatically when the price reaches that point.
For us (users of this thread), the entry price is well known, and we know it hours before we enter a trade. We can use this EA , get a voice alert when the price was reached and the trade orders were executed. All that we have to do is to manage the take profit.
What do think ?
Dani_M
The link -
Inserted Video
  • #355
  • Feb 19, 2008 8:03am Feb 19, 2008 8:03am
Quoting findcount
i remember a thread asking where did all the old elite members of forexfactory go.......seems like they had their own websites......

anyway, Kevin's website is gonna be up soon ? also, will there be an entrance fee ?

sigh......looks like another loss to the forum........
Hey findcount,

I really do not want to be banned or punished for promoting, so I will just stick to your questions. The website is up (slightly under construction). There is a blog that logs the ups and downs of my $100 account that is free to access. If the user likes what they see there, there is an option to purchase the method.

Best of luck,

Kevin

PS I'm not gone forever guys... I've been getting a lot of "sad" PM's, but they can stop because I will still be here. It's possible to post two places at once
  • #356
  • Feb 19, 2008 8:45am Feb 19, 2008 8:45am
Quoting kharvell
Hey findcount,

I really do not want to be banned or punished for promoting, so I will just stick to your questions. The website is up (slightly under construction). There is a blog that logs the ups and downs of my $100 account that is free to access. If the user likes what they see there, there is an option to purchase the method.

Best of luck,

Kevin

PS I'm not gone forever guys... I've been getting a lot of "sad" PM's, but they can stop because I will still be here. It's possible to post two places at once
I'll do it for you Kev...
right here
  • #357
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:25am Feb 19, 2008 9:25am
My trading IS discretionary. I'll post my thoughts first, then I'll post the mechanics.

If you want to make this REALLY simple... (I'll talk in terms of "LONG" - use reverse for "short"). Trade it as originally posted. Just use the 1SMA on "Median Price", entry on break of peak, stop just below the valley or 50 pip S/L for all... (the way SWINGTRADE mentioned)... and let it ride (you will need some experience to know when to stop letting it ride)

The way I learned to trade it:
I sat down with EVERY one of the 16 pairs, on 4H, went back as far as it will go and went bar-by-bar-by-bar, voicing out loud - "OK.. it made a higher peak, there is the pullback, I would enter here, stop here, etc..." or "there's the pullback... click... now it made a lower peak, stay out and see what it does... click... there's a lower valley, might be reversing, wait for pullback... click... there it is... entry here, stop here... click... oops reversed again, no entry, etc... etc... etc..." for every one of them... You will be AMAZED at how you get the "feel" for it.

On MM:
I started out with 2 lots. Sell one at 50 let the other ride... S/L at 50, The problem is is that when you get stopped out at 50 - it's actually 100 pips total. But when you hit the 50 T/P and hit - let's say 100 with second lot - that's a 75 total. Or worse... You hit the 50 T/P on first and stopped out at break-even on 2nd... Your losses always end up being bigger than your gains. You can't trade at 60/40 or even 70/30 and make any money that way. So with multi-lots, you have to make sure that your winners average out much MORE than your losses.

My style of trading:
I don't have a day job. I certainly don't have - NOR WANT - a wife for 2nd income and I'm not "trying out this trading thing". I want to make sure I make money on regular basis. Once I hit my base targets, I use the "overage" - if any - to "let it ride". So I use set T/P. AGAIN... This is not a "right / wrong" thing. Just - ME. And the only way to get to know "YOU" is to do it.

I wanted to say all that, so that, when I post charts, you guys know that it's only what is right for ME and my thought process. You do as you wish. Next post will the mechanics...
  • #358
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:47am Feb 19, 2008 9:47am
Answer to Post #350 - (Good question Oromis - It's easy to put up a chart "after-the-fact" ) - DISCRETION: This is why I added bars to my chart, instead of "Line Chart" only.

NOTE: I agree with Kevin's original 50 S/L as a minimum. On 4H time-frame, anything tighter, other than, maybe on EUR/USD, and a couple of other slow-movers, is not enough.

1st chart shows a shallow pullback - so I use the pull-back BAR for entry and stop. Break of bar (3-5) for entry - break of other side (3-5) for stop.

2nd chart is a deeper pull-back - so I use the valley and peak. For T/P, must keep in mind the upcoming support at 207.00. From entry to that level, there is room for, may be, 100 -125 pips. I want to make sure that I hit my T/P so I'll set it at, may be 90. So I have better than 1:1 risk/reward and I'm not being greedy and trying to squeeze every pip out of it.

How I learned to use discretion?... Read my last post.
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  • #359
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:19am Feb 19, 2008 10:19am
Hey Freevey,

Good job with posting how you trade this. It's good to see other views.

I do have a question though. Do you only trade this looking for range breakouts? Seems to me that the charts you posted have price in some sort of range, then it breaks out and forms a valley/peak and then you wait for your pullback for confirmation.
So do you trade just regular valleys/peaks when price is just trending?
What I mean is, say you're not in a trade for pair XXX/XXX and price is moving along and has created a peak/valley. How would you (or would you at all) trade that? Just curious.
(I hope I make some sense )

Take care,
Tom
  • #360
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:45am Feb 19, 2008 10:45am
Yes... I definitely wait for price to break out - then I wait for a pull-back - then look for entry.

I am, however, trying out range break out as we speak - with mini-lots though. Like GBP/USD is looking RIGHT-NOW.
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