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  • #181
  • Feb 18, 2008 5:58pm Feb 18, 2008 5:58pm
read between the lines:

"
The Australian dollar rose to a three-month high of 91.53 U.S. cents before trading at 91.45 cents as of 9:37 a.m. in Sydney, from 91.12 cents in late Asian trading yesterday.
The yield on the two-year bond rose 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 7 percent, the highest since February 2000.
The price of the 7.5 percent bond maturing in September 2009 fell 0.085, or A$0.85 per A$1,000 face amount, to 100.727. Bond yields move inversely to prices."


Someone is selling bonds on the spike...
  • #182
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:00pm Feb 18, 2008 6:00pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
read between the lines:

"
The Australian dollar rose to a three-month high of 91.53 U.S. cents before trading at 91.45 cents as of 9:37 a.m. in Sydney, from 91.12 cents in late Asian trading yesterday.
The yield on the two-year bond rose 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 7 percent, the highest since February 2000.
The price of the 7.5 percent bond maturing in September 2009 fell 0.085, or A$0.85 per A$1,000 face amount, to 100.727. Bond yields move inversely to prices."


Someone is selling bonds on the spike...

Can you elaborate on the bond situation?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #183
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:00pm Feb 18, 2008 6:00pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
read between the lines:

"
The Australian dollar rose to a three-month high of 91.53 U.S. cents before trading at 91.45 cents as of 9:37 a.m. in Sydney, from 91.12 cents in late Asian trading yesterday.
The yield on the two-year bond rose 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 7 percent, the highest since February 2000.
The price of the 7.5 percent bond maturing in September 2009 fell 0.085, or A$0.85 per A$1,000 face amount, to 100.727. Bond yields move inversely to prices."


Someone is selling bonds on the spike...
Didn't take much for the market to price in another hike. You dump your shorts?
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #184
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:00pm Feb 18, 2008 6:00pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Ticker,

Thanks for posting the article. The key comes from his line "Domestic demand must moderate......" As long as wages and employment stay ridiculously strong, domestic demand and inflation will stay ridiculously high. As soon as global consumption of commod's cool, the Australian economy might halt like a piston in an ungreased chamber.

The scary part for Australians is what happens if rates are too high when this happens?
Your last question is the billion dollar question. I am in communications with the author of the article. he says Q&A coming out. Sovereign funds - and restriction of external investment was not brought up.

As much as I hate losing in this trade. I am getting my moneys worth...

Very concerned about retest of .94...damn
  • #185
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:04pm Feb 18, 2008 6:04pm
Any profit taking will be limited to 9120 imvho
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #186
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:14pm Feb 18, 2008 6:14pm
Oh man look at GBPAUD...what a brutal retreat.

News on my broker saying not that low since 1997.
  • #187
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:30pm Feb 18, 2008 6:30pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Can you elaborate on the bond situation?
If people are selling the bonds, I don't think they are expecting to get a better price later. They have been the hot ticket for a while. Don't want to read into it too much, but gives the impression it is profit taking time. With AUSSIE this high, take that cash and buy put to work on something with a better medium term, fixed income type return, perhaps. No flight to saftey in AUD bonds on inflationary talk?
  • #188
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:34pm Feb 18, 2008 6:34pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Didn't take much for the market to price in another hike. You dump your shorts?

No and hating it. Small position, but it's hurting. Looking to double down at 1.5890, or throw in towel.

Should have kept my longs from .86..oh man.
  • #189
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:35pm Feb 18, 2008 6:35pm
Aud's almost at 92.00, very strong stuff this morning.

Ticker,

Thanks for the info.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #190
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:39pm Feb 18, 2008 6:39pm
Minutes revealed talk of possibly hiking 50BP last meeting. This could lead to irrational buying of the Aussie.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #191
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:40pm Feb 18, 2008 6:40pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Minutes revealed talk of possibly hiking 50BP last meeting. This could lead to irrational buying of the Aussie.
Indeed
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #192
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:44pm Feb 18, 2008 6:44pm
What's crazy is I have been watching AUD for months, looking at .92 target. Eventually I got discouraged by less than bullish news and an evaluation of the economic growth. All the pressure they see is a result of their own doing. The lack of ports to export their coal for example. Trading on fundamentals has burned me before and it always seems to happen on pairs where I am on the wrong side of the interest, so I can't even benefit from the that if I decide I want to just hold it.

Sucking it here, bigtime. It ain't over yet though.
  • #193
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:46pm Feb 18, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Indeed
I knew that, the fact that they didn't was cause for bearishness, I thought.

Anyway...good luck, going to distract myself with other tasks I have my orders in...lets see what happens

PEEEEAAACCCEEE!
  • #194
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:51pm Feb 18, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I knew that, the fact that they didn't was cause for bearishness, I thought.
That's actually a tough one Ticker. On one hand, it lends support to another hike. On the other it does convey a dovish sentiment.

I suppose I interpret it as bullish. RBA is showing it's hand in a way. Saying they aren't nervous to move to 7.25%, within the realm of the possible.

Wow, she's getting her wings on
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #195
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:53pm Feb 18, 2008 8:53pm
i've been "hedging" commodity pairs and it's been good.
buy aud/usd and usd/cad when one pair shows a strong upward trend while the other strongly oversold.
this may not work forever but working now.
make some money, have some fun, leave some footprints
  • #196
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:30am Feb 19, 2008 1:30am
I count 6 of the last 8 hourly bars on Kiwi are doji's. Moved my stop to profit at 7947 (daily low) FWIW
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #197
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:40am Feb 19, 2008 6:40am
Kiwi is getting dangerously close to breaking out of it's channel. Today's daily close will be a clue towards determining breakout status or not. A daily pin, with a high around 8020/8040 and a close below 8000 would leave the door cracked for a return to the range.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #198
  • Feb 19, 2008 7:22am Feb 19, 2008 7:22am
The AJ is now correcting the move from 107 to 90, we've already breached the .382 and .500 levels so now it's on to the .682 level at 100.97
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #199
  • Feb 19, 2008 8:03am Feb 19, 2008 8:03am
time to roll over. The "hype" is subsiding as AUD begins to break through support on shorter time frames. Looking for a break below .9189 as line in sand.
  • #200
  • Feb 19, 2008 8:05am Feb 19, 2008 8:05am
Quoting DutchTrader
The AJ is now correcting the move from 107 to 90, we've already breached the .382 and .500 levels so now it's on to the .682 level at 100.97
looks like 50 resistance held up for now.
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