Commodity Currencies

Well it's simple for now. Long aussie at 9105, long kiwi at 7922. kiwi stop at BE, no stops on aussie for now.

I'm sure there will be "curves" but I'll enjoy the straight away while I'm on it

dang, better will wait for 0.96 for shortting aud/usd.
have seen in the past this kind of uptrends. then the selloffs have been brutal. like 2 weeks going up 500pips.
then in 2 days, going down 800.

Acid,

Try to have your posts based on something. At least reference a technical or fundamental reason behind your forecast. Stating "I have seen a reversal after a break above resistance before" is not really a reason to trade, it's an excuse.

Thanks alot...................

whatever, ill wait for a run above 0.94 for then to short.
but if equities continues to fall and this pair get smashed, will long it, below 0.87.... thats it, deep technical analisys.

LOL

Ok Acid,
Just remember, trading currencies is like sex. You get out of it exactly what you put into it.

BTW it's analysis pal.

I'd be surprised if the Aussie has any significant moves until the RBA's minutes get released at 630pm CST.

Still holding longs FWIW

I have to wonder if they will mention the mentioned restriction on foreign investment. Foreign investors are not helping inflation, but is surely helping the currency.

I look forward to the explanation why they went with .25 cut instead of the .5 some were expecting. they can't keep raising rates forever. Other measures will likely have to take place to curb inflationary pressures.

All great points. I really agree that capital flows are especially important. Like I posted a couple weeks ago, I think that an economic slowdown will filter to other countries from the US. Australia, from the current data, appears to be weathering the storm, but it won't last.

The totem pole goes something like

US&Eurozone(UK on a lesser scale)-China(Add India, Brazil and others also)-Australia?

Regardless, the demand for commod's is limited during an economically slow period. And commod demand is what is bolstering Australia's employment and wages. Just a matter of timing IMO

But you have to trade for the day, Carpe diem.

You are right.

My daytrade timing is off, per usual. Perhaps, decent MM and some patience will work out. If this turns into a long slow drift, it could be painful. Like holding King high flush going into the river only to have someone else on at the table holding the Ace.

There was a bounce off 9101 earlier this morning, so that could be interpreted as bullish. However if the RBA doesn't sound too hawkish we could indeed be right back at 8700 levels soon.

doesn't look like she wants to give up...yet.

I'm sure that new shorts were just opened on kiwi around 7970/75. There is a 0% chance that I would do that. I'm still long FWIW and a break of the channel....maybe .80 or so might just open the floodgates. Gotta love the action here after a really tough period with lots of whipsaw action.

I'm on the wrong side. And this move poses to be a real gut check. Looking for bearish candle after speech.

now I am really reaching, lol.

The speech is the key, if its even remotely dovish we're going down.

Isn't there supposed to be a global slowdown? Sheesh.

The problem is china can still make stuff too cheap. Granted it's come up agsint teh dollar, but other currencies have come up agsint the dollar more, so the china currencies is even cheaper in relative terms - as far as buying raw materials and manufacturing.

if USA and Euro do slow, there has to be some effect on commodity prices, no?

Upcoming USA news: CPI, retail, housing...my bet is on EURO will benefit more from any USD bearish news, than AUD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...&refer=economy

There are a lot of "IFs" an mention of global slowdown, weakening trading partners and below trend growth"

`Inflation Spike'
The Reserve Bank says the underlying trend for inflation is ``around 3.5 percent.'' Policy makers aim to keep annual price gains between 2 percent and 3 percent on average.
The consumer price index rose 3 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier and ``it's likely that the annual figure could spike to something close to 4 percent next quarter,'' Edey said.
Signs that price gains are unlikely to slow in coming months prompted Stevens to raise the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 7 percent on Feb. 5, following similar moves in November and August.
Stevens will again boost the overnight cash rate by a quarter point to 7.25 percent on March 4, according to 22 of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week. Fifteen said the bank will follow up with another increase by mid year.
The central bank has indicated that ``domestic demand would have to moderate if inflation is to be brought back to a satisfactory rate over time,'' Edey said today.
The Reserve Bank forecasts that non-farm gross domestic product will slow to a pace ``around 2.75 percent'' over the next two years from 3.75 percent in the December quarter.
Global Growth
``Growth at that sort of pace should allow some lessening of domestic capacity pressures and thereby generate a gradual decline in inflation,'' Edey said.
Slower global growth, triggered by fallout from the U.S. housing recession, may also help cool Australia's economy as ``growth in Australia's trading partners will slow to a below-trend rate this year and next,'' Edey said.
It is ``likely that a generalized slowdown in the major industrial countries will have some dampening effect on the Asian region, and on other parts of the developing world,'' he said.
The ``most obvious channel for this to happen is through trade linkages, but these effects are probably not large enough on their own to generate a sharp slowdown in the developing world.
``Bigger effects would be seen if there were direct spillovers from recent events into developing-countries' financial systems.''

Hey,Did somebody else noticed the mayor downtrend on USD/NOK $rofl$

Ticker,

Thanks for posting the article. The key comes from his line "Domestic demand must moderate......" As long as wages and employment stay ridiculously strong, domestic demand and inflation will stay ridiculously high. As soon as global consumption of commod's cool, the Australian economy might halt like a piston in an ungreased chamber.

The scary part for Australians is what happens if rates are too high when this happens?

9160 breached now 9225 is open.

Just by-the-by is there a way to watch or listen to the speech just given? Obviously its finished now but perhaps for such future events? If not, is the speech notes released on the RBA site the guide the market goes by?
P.s. looking like the market is seeing AUD upside bias... any opinions welcome!