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MG's trading journal, blog, analysis, speculation...

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 17, 2008 5:56pm Feb 17, 2008 5:56pm
Hi,
My name is Mark Gavalda and I have been a trader for a few years now. I have developed a trading strategy 1.5 year ago and I'm still using it with success, but I also want to become a price action trading expert.
My idea is that indicators shouldn't exist at all They lag, they produce many false signals, and you can't really trust them. Of course I have some friends and colleagues who can use them to trade profitably... well, I can't. And frankly why would I, when there's an easier and better way to do it: "read" the charts and "feel" the market!

In the future I will post here my analysis, personal comments, trades, charts, silly speculations and everything I consider important to write down - for myself in the first place in order to learn from the mistakes.

I hope everyone will have a good time reading this "trading blog"! Comments are welcome anytime of course!
  • #2
  • Feb 17, 2008 6:07pm Feb 17, 2008 6:07pm
I'm an intraday trader and I trying to catch the smallest movements possible (who doesn't...) so a mediumterm outlook is a few days at longest for me. Please remember this in the future

Cable has fallen enough on the last two days of last week and we have a very strong support now at 1.9555 area (.50-.60) (please refer to the chart and drawings) and we also head a gap which should be filled as they say. I don't expect it to continue the downside movement immediately, instead we should see a rise for a couple of days at least. First M/T target (buy) from here should be 1.9650
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1-02-18-2008--0056.jpg Size: 222 KB
  • #3
  • Feb 17, 2008 7:27pm Feb 17, 2008 7:27pm
Maybe a good pattern spotted on the Cable M5 chart. Look for an upside break.
I will consider the pair bearish only well below 1.9550, with hourly candle closing confirmation. I do not think that will happen today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm5-02-18-2008--0225.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #4
  • Feb 17, 2008 7:47pm Feb 17, 2008 7:47pm
Mark,

Look forward to stopping by your new Journal and checking out your analysis.

Regards,

Harris C.
  • #5
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:25am Feb 18, 2008 2:25am
Rosco, thanks for the welcome. I hope I will be able to spend here as much time as I want to!

Cable update: okay price went up to 1.9638, only 12pips away from my target but still you could make about +50pips on this run.
To be honest I did not expect the fall this morning to be this powerful, and here's my first mistake already, I underestimated the bears. "Good" support at 1.9550 was broken without any problems on the first try which (IMO) means we will see further moves to the south in the near future. Look for 38.2 retracement to enter if you wish to join.
  • #6
  • Feb 18, 2008 5:16am Feb 18, 2008 5:16am
Good luck with you journal !
Measure twice, cut once
  • #7
  • Feb 18, 2008 5:31am Feb 18, 2008 5:31am
Quoting MarkGavalda
Hi,
My name is Mark Gavalda and I have been a trader for a few years now. I have developed a trading strategy 1.5 year ago and I'm still using it with success, but I also want to become a price action trading expert.
My idea is that indicators shouldn't exist at all They lag, they produce many false signals, and you can't really trust them. Of course I have some friends and colleagues who can use them to trade profitably... well, I can't. And frankly why would I, when there's an easier and better way to do it: "read" the charts and "feel" the market!

In the future I will post here my analysis, personal comments, trades, charts, silly speculations and everything I consider important to write down - for myself in the first place in order to learn from the mistakes.

I hope everyone will have a good time reading this "trading blog"! Comments are welcome anytime of course!
Good luck in your journal, i am aslo trying to learn price action and really enjoy it more than indicators. I dont even have indicators on my charts, i only draw some fibs, S/R and trend lines. Looking forward to your analysis.
  • #8
  • Feb 18, 2008 5:32am Feb 18, 2008 5:32am
Quoting aediaz1
Good luck with you journal !
Thanks, I will not abandon the great thread you started though don't worry I would say this thread is to see the theory in practice!
  • #9
  • Feb 18, 2008 5:33am Feb 18, 2008 5:33am
Quoting Fxtrader
Good luck in your journal, i am aslo trying to learn price action and really enjoy it more than indicators. I dont even have indicators on my charts, i only draw some fibs, S/R and trend lines. Looking forward to your analysis.
Thanks! I will try to do my best
  • #10
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:10am Feb 18, 2008 8:10am
I wrote this little "article" about price action almost a year ago, but I would like to bring it up again, it's very actual regarding the subject of this thread. It's like a fairy tale so if you are grown up and too serious don't read it.

What is price action?
I always enjoy imagining the chart as a warzone. The United Army of Bulls are trying to fight the Paramilitary Organization of the Grizzly Bear Warriors in this never ending battle. Imagine it like a real war: with weapons (news, events) with supplies (support & resistance), trenches (fibonacci & pivot lines), etc.
When the bearish organization is attacking you have to act as a general, so go on and open up the map of the warzone for god's sake! Have a quick look, because people are dying out there!! Okay, what do we have on the map (chart)? Until now the bulls were progressing but they are tired now and couldn't breach the next critical defend line of the bears (means price is bouncing off a resistance line). What will happen now? Bulls will reorganize and try to attack once or twice more (testing the resistance line). If the defense line is strong, they won't be able to get through, that critical line remains intact. The bear warriors immediately notice the weakening in the bulls army, they're planning a counter-attack. This is the time when nothing happens in the warzone, but everybody knows sooner or later something's gonna blow. You quickly make use of the time to see what's going to happen. You immediately draw the previously tested critical line to your map, and count on that bear counter-attack. How strong will they get? This puts up the question: how far could they possibly fight-back?
On the map you have to draw now the bull trenches. Daily, weekly Pivot, Fibonacci lines, etc, what you consider important. After you set up everything you contemplate a bit on from where do you consider the counter-attack active? Depending on the timeframe this could mean 20-30pips (let's say yards in this fantasy-world) from the critical, unbreached resistance line. When the battle continues you watch how things evolve and shout a hurray and a 'Go bears, go!' every time when the bears can take another important trench. When they find stout resistance (this is called support in forex if it's a downtrend... funny) (you know this from a Doji candlestick for example) you take a closer look, and move your S/L (stoploss) to the very next already-conquered trench which you just left behind. Then wait until something happens.
The bulls gather some reinforcements and shoot the bears in their hams and everything starts from the beginning...

I hope this little story of mine could help some of you out there who don't know what the heck is 'price action' yet.
Attached Image
  • #11
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:46am Feb 20, 2008 3:46am
If price closes below 1.9460 (my current support line) I will go short cable for a fast 20-30pips. MPC Meeting helped this movement so we just have to wait until a possible breakout occurs.

edit: gbp seems to be gathering some power right now, we have to be careful with the shorts. Also there's the resistance line of the current wedge at 1.9485 if it's broken to the upside I will definitely go long for at least 100pips.
  • #12
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:00am Feb 20, 2008 4:00am
Trade call!
Going LONG on GBP/JPY at 209.45! First target 210.60, taking partial profits there. Will update once (and if) we get there.
This is a mediumterm trade based on recent price action.
  • #13
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:24am Feb 20, 2008 4:24am
Great! 30mins later +50pips, moving protective S/L to +1pips
  • #14
  • Feb 20, 2008 5:33pm Feb 20, 2008 5:33pm
Well the Geppy trade didn't go that well I broke even at +1pip only.
The GBP/USD trade posted earlier today went fine and I got a good +60pips from it. There was an opportunity on E/U during the night and later today but I missed both completely. Pretty angry with myself.

Now there's a chance that a good trade is forming on USD/CHF and luckily I didn't enter on my own analysis (which was wrong by the way) and my friend aediaz1 has posted a great chart for us to get some high probability pips with some longs at 1.0935 are. Have a look at that screenshot.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1203549472

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1203549472
  • #15
  • Feb 21, 2008 7:59am Feb 21, 2008 7:59am
+15pips from shorting the usd/chf overnight but it did not get to the buy limit zone so we're looking at new opportunities right now.

If the hour closes with a shooting star on H1 g/u I will go short with a light position and take profits as soon as possible.

EDIT:
Trade: SELL GBP/USD @ 1.9574 1st target: 1.9542
  • #16
  • Feb 21, 2008 9:58am Feb 21, 2008 9:58am
Unfortunate news for the USD caused more selling across the board thus sending G/U higher.
I got stopped out with +10pips after the sell reversed and the 15pips trailing stop got hit.
  • #17
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:10pm Feb 26, 2008 7:10pm
+80pips on NZD/USD. Medium-term trade. Break-out after not common pattern, target reached, profit taken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4-02-27-2008--0202.jpg Size: 211 KB
  • #18
  • Feb 27, 2008 8:06am Feb 27, 2008 8:06am
Quoting MarkGavalda
Hi,
My name is Mark Gavalda and I have been a trader for a few years now. I have developed a trading strategy 1.5 year ago and I'm still using it with success, but I also want to become a price action trading expert.
My idea is that indicators shouldn't exist at all They lag, they produce many false signals, and you can't really trust them. Of course I have some friends and colleagues who can use them to trade profitably... well, I can't. And frankly why would I, when there's an easier and better way to do it: "read" the charts and "feel" the market!

In the future I will post here my analysis, personal comments, trades, charts, silly speculations and everything I consider important to write down - for myself in the first place in order to learn from the mistakes.

I hope everyone will have a good time reading this "trading blog"! Comments are welcome anytime of course!
Hello Mark, i'm also a fan of price action and would love to trade only using price action or nakedly someday. however i'm still green in this field so i have many more to learn. anyway i do enjoy your story of the warzone

All the best,

Yuna
  • #19
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:59pm Feb 27, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting yuna
Hello Mark, i'm also a fan of price action and would love to trade only using price action or nakedly someday. however i'm still green in this field so i have many more to learn. anyway i do enjoy your story of the warzone

All the best,

Yuna
Thank you Yuna, I'm very glad that you enjoyed my short tale I will try to bring more content to this journal in the future.
  • #20
  • Mar 2, 2008 5:11pm Mar 2, 2008 5:11pm
Going long with a massive amount on GBP/JPY @ 204.92 right now. I will post charts and explanation later. This is a very good, high probability trade with at least 2-300pips as a target and about 100pips as a stop loss level.
Medium term trade.
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