Slow Learner's first steps.

post #1 "long staircase, stubby legs."

After about 10 months of messing about trying to drum up my own system for trading forex, blowing up several demo accounts along the way, i think I've finally reached a point where I can confidently assert that I have a method that doesn't lose too much too quickly.

Considering before this point I lost oodlles quicker than the chinese eat noodles I glow with pride at my humble achievement.

On a manual backtest my current system loses less than 1% per month! There were even occasions, noteably in the glorious summer of 2004, where my profits could have bought me a beer and a ticket to the circus.

My stubby legs have brought me all the way here to the current pinnacle of my achievement. They are tired and a bit wobbly, but the next peak is in sight and I am determined to meander on come what may.

now you're ready to take off the demo training wheels, and ride like the big boys with live account

Hi Gmak<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

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Welcome to the Jungle. Look forward to the details of your method; it may give a boost to my stubby legs to climb that looong staircase.<o></o>

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Good luck<o></o>

OVERALL AIMS

To develop a system capable of turning $1,000 into £1m within 2 years.

current state of play - unmitigated failure.

To learn to program indicators and EA's in MQL4 so as to turn $1000 into £1m while relaxing in a state of idle bliss

current state of play - confused dudgeon.

develop a set of custom indicators not based on anything currently available, detailing not the market, but the volatilities evident beneath it in order to have something to program in MQL4

Current state of paly - bright sunrise, drizzle on horizon.

Number 1 observation.

The market has an underlying volatility, ever changing but usually within surprisingly predictable parameters.

idea

If the volatility of the market is predictable, then a system that can predict this volatility can profit despite market direction.

Hurdle 1.

any such system is likely to incur the wrath of the forex gods each and every time there is a trend.

Solution 1

Even within a trending period, there is an underlying market volatility. On each and every time frame, in each and every period (with noteable exceptions, but at least 90% of the time) a candle not only rises but also falls.


Theory

Use this knowledge to develop a system which 'on average' utilises this underlying volatility to capture pips on both sides of a bouncing market (even in a trend)


Timefame

1 hr/daily

hello Hilmy183 and Adam141,

I will be starting my live account next week and will then lose $1000 dollars at a rate of 1% per month until I have found the pot of gold i believe is hidden in the posts above.

It may take a while but I am determined to get there

Keep smiling.

Really looking forward to following your journey if the first few posts here are anything to go by

Best of luck

Kind Regards
Steve

$1000 x .01 = $10 for the month.

Does this mean you're making a lot of gains to offset your losses to only be losing 10 bucks a month? Sounds like you're being broken by one or two trades IMO.

Plus, to turn $1000 into 1million pounds sterling at the current rate means you want almost 2mil US dollars.

Gmak,

What pair or pairs will you be trading?

May the forex gods be with you ....

cheers Steviet, and enormous buckets full of Irishluck to you too.

Techno79, the 1% thing is based on the fact that I opened an account back in october with $5000 and that as of last week I had $4846.40 left.

A modest "Englishman's" drawdown of just 1% per month.

At one point it was +5% at £5238 something. This was a moment of unadulterated smugness which swiftly passed to be replaced by my current miserly predicament.

such humble efforts are due to my natural cowardliness towards anything risky after blowing several accounts with fearsome ease.

In exploring the possiblilities I have outlined above and will continue to explore below I intend to take a more aggressive stance.

Note to self - This may result in the Alamo.

Pipex (i like the name - is it you who wiped out all my profits?)

I think the most profitable pair for my system is Eur/Jpy (but only under a certain pip spread).

I will also be trading Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd and Usd/Jpy. Depending upon pip spread, nature of the market and current average volatility ( I will be writing endlessy on this subject or until order appears out of the drivel).

may the forex be with you.

It occurs to me as rather ironic that my first problem in writing a journal aimed at making a million dollar system is that I am so inept as to not be able to upload my 'discovery' files.

Even when zipped these apparent juggernauts weigh more than the maximum weight the forum skilift will carry.

I will just post my conclusion and then go through the arduous task of breaking my files into little chunks.


Conclusions


I just wrote my first EA and all my conclusions turned out to be hopelessly wrong. I've deleted them pending a new set. No point confusing myself

ManU I noticed you reading my thread. Embarrassed though I am to say it I am a Leeds fan.

yet you are still welcome.

constant erronious assumptions led me to post yet more things that weren't true.

I apologise for my ineptitude. This post has been edited.

I hope to actually post something useful soon, rather than spend my time editing my own idiocy