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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #62,041
  • Feb 15, 2008 3:31pm Feb 15, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Cartoons of the Week

  1. http://img.timeinc.net/time/i/alt_holder.gif
  2. http://img.timeinc.net/time/i/alt_holder.gif

http://img.timeinc.net//time/cartoon...artoons_02.jpg

LOL!!!!!
  • #62,042
  • Feb 16, 2008 3:29am Feb 16, 2008 3:29am
Quoting jarroo
Karmo is known for his great analysis and when the Fibs start talking to him, we should all listen.

People should also realize that Karmo, whether he realizes it or not, knows the personality of this pair very well. The subtle nuances that are hard to articulate. And it helps to have a money management plan that can take on a large draw down (200-300 pips or more).

Jim
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #62,043
  • Feb 16, 2008 6:44am Feb 16, 2008 6:44am
Can't remember where I found this pic, maybe it was here on FF, anyway maybe this is how the market is "made"
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #62,044
  • Feb 16, 2008 7:29am Feb 16, 2008 7:29am
Quoting kujo17
Just an observation, may mean Nada......

From HH at 213.85, first drop to LL was 196 pips.
Next move UP to new LH was 135 pips.
Next drop was 296 pips to new LL.
Next move up to Lower high was 155 pips.

So, should be guess a drop of 350+ pips plus could be in the works ?

to complete wave 5 of this move down/retrace, before our move up ?

Not really an EW guy, but just an observation.
yes, your observation is very interesting and require more study and analysis.
  • #62,045
  • Feb 16, 2008 7:30am Feb 16, 2008 7:30am
1W shows that GJ is in a triangular configuration within main up move/retracement IMHO
215.30-40 is another large barrier and if GJ would cross it up then we might see 217.60
  • #62,046
  • Edited 8:04am Feb 17, 2008 7:36am | Edited 8:04am
Happy day.
I am newbie but would like to post some of my study.As I have no knowledge in trading forex please forgive any mistake that I made in my learning curve.
Put me in the sea and I'll be sinking deep, Let me in the sky and I shall hit the ground, and if you throw me away in bermuda triangle and I'll be lost.

TF daily.

We are in retracement from downtrend since 230.32.The lowest 204.59's cs is a doji and confirm by uptrend candle till 214.00.Rejected there till low 205.86.Again doji formation and up till spinning top red candle on last friday.If you are optimist for a good retracement we have made a higher low and possibly heading to 217 area.Stoch is on upmove till 80 area and not yet getting down and cross the red dotted.De marker is also on upmove from low 0.07 to 0.42.I think it is possible for de marker hit 0.50 or 0.61 before continuing down.Fibo extension in reference to wave 1,2 & 3 are 217.84(127.3%) and 218.86(138.2%) and 50% retracement is 217.45.What I think wave 4 is around that area.I am not elliotician or have any knowledge in wave counting but let assume it is a primary count and lets complexity to the expert.Tenkan-sen is about to cross kijun sen and I hope they make a golden cross.CS is current above Gan Hi-lo.

TF 4H, in next post.
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  • #62,047
  • Feb 17, 2008 7:50am Feb 17, 2008 7:50am
TF4H.,

Stoch 4H is at their low.Stoch 1H is coming up.We are now trading above the cloud even last friday the cs has tested the kijun-sen.We are below Gan Hi-lo but 50% retracement quickly move toward38.2(0r 61.8 if u look at the other side)I would like to see market psychology performing next candle to suggest any possibility of upmove, hope to see wave 3.If you look at the H&S that appear on friday, the movedown is approximate 100pips and I think it has completed(measurement from head/eagle eye to neckline was about 100pips approximate.)
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  • #62,048
  • Edited 8:13am Feb 17, 2008 8:01am | Edited 8:13am
TF1H.,
Friday give us a downtrend testing the senkou span B.As posted earlier the 1H stoch has reached their low and going up above 20 crossing the 'red.The candle that coloured yellow is divergence indi.Both are suggestive that when markt open we would see an uptrend 1H candle.Till what level?I would suggest senkou span A which at 213 approximate to 88% fibo.Again let the golden cross occur first and cs open above gan hi-lo for a more convincing move.

Thanks.Anything wrong it's my mistake.,ready to learn from u guys with more experience and of course more knowledge.Sorry my english.My tongue speak asian.
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  • #62,049
  • Feb 17, 2008 8:49am Feb 17, 2008 8:49am
Just a little word.who ever feel comfortable trading IB, see 4h tf, u know where to put an order.,212.40 for long?.Short side-hopefully not..hee.Feel free to comment my ignorant.,my sl will be there, but please dont hit 'em.p)
  • #62,050
  • Edited 9:06am Feb 17, 2008 8:50am | Edited 9:06am
Quoting Dat7447
TF1H.,
Friday give us a downtrend testing the senkou span B.As posted earlier the 1H stoch has reached their low and going up above 20 crossing the 'red.The candle that coloured yellow is divergence indi.Both are suggestive that when markt open we would see an uptrend 1H candle.Till what level?I would suggest senkou span A which at 213 approximate to 88% fibo.Again let the golden cross occur first for a more convincing move.

Thanks.Anything wrong it's my mistake.,ready to learn from u guys with more experience and of course more knowledge.Sorry my english.My tongue speak asian.
Very good analysis! =

To sum it up, this is what I see. . .

GJ price is still trading in a triangle at the moment and has failed several times @ the top of the range (214 area). . .

Daily chart looks bearish short term - IMO! As some have pointed out there is a daily pin-bar with a confirmation candle to suggest more downside is forthcoming. IMO, I don't think we will see price lower than the last low (which would confirm the continued up trend) as some are suggesting (like 203/200) but I do think we will see price lower (207.50 area weekly support) which could be a good buying opportunity. . .

Now, looking @ LTF charts, looks like GJ will see an up move toward 211.70-212.50/213 area but this could be limited IMO and a good shorting opportunity. . . I will be watching two areas, a break of the daily pivot and the 200 EMA, rejection of either and I will load up on shorts.

Daily chart. . .
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  • #62,051
  • Feb 17, 2008 8:59am Feb 17, 2008 8:59am
Quoting aediaz1
Can't remember where I found this pic, maybe it was here on FF, anyway maybe this is how the market is "made"

.....Your cartoon Just Joking
  • #62,052
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:01am Feb 17, 2008 9:01am
Thank quecee,
I,ve seen people with sound knowledge in ew/price pattern that seeing the level you mention(upmost 213) and then down but higher then last low.Ikeep that in mind.
  • #62,053
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:11am Feb 17, 2008 9:11am
Well, it took a couple of months longer than I expected, but the British government finally realized that they have been left holding the bag.

Northern Rock to Be Nationalized by U.K. as Virgin Bid Rejected

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...8XY&refer=home

As we move further into peak oil and the collapse of the fiat economy, this is going to be a regular occurrence. In a world designed around exponential increases in debt, you cannot save banks and financial companies when the growth finally stops.
  • #62,054
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:13am Feb 17, 2008 9:13am
My analysis

oh sorry lowest in 2009 .. expection ....
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  • #62,055
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:20am Feb 17, 2008 9:20am
Quoting quecee5
Very good analysis! =

To sum it up, this is what I see. . .

GJ price is still trading in a triangle at the moment and has failed several times @ the top of the range (214 area). . .

Daily chart looks bearish short term - IMO! As some have pointed out there is a daily pin-bar with a confirmation candle to suggest more downside is forthcoming. IMO, I don't think we will see price lower than the last low (which would confirm the continued up trend) as some are suggesting (like 203/200) but I do think we will see price lower (207.50 area weekly support) which could be a good buying opportunity. . .

Now, looking @ LTF charts, looks like GJ will see an up move toward 211.70-212.50/213 area but this could be limited IMO and a good shorting opportunity. . . I will be watching two areas, a break of the daily pivot and the 200 EMA, rejection of either and I will load up on shorts.

Daily chart. . .
Here is a 1hr chart for u, which could be the case. As stated the daily pivot should give clues where price is headed. . .
3-4 is based on 1-2, 4-5 is based on 2-3. . . Could extend, or it might not happen at all - only time will tell. . .

1hr Chart
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  • #62,056
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:44am Feb 17, 2008 9:44am
Quoting quecee5
Here is a 1hr chart for u, which could be the case. As stated the daily pivot should give clues where price is headed. . .
3-4 is based on 1-2, 4-5 is based on 2-3. . . Could extend, or it might not happen at all - only time will tell. . .

1hr Chart
4hr chart for u. . .

Couple of thing to note:
1) price is trading below 4hr hi/lo gann and 5sma (white line)
2) Price has been rejected yet again at the 200 EMA
3) Looking at TT, qqe5 and ZL Stoch, up move does not look convincing as indicator are still moving lower or starting to cross down as price moves upward
4) Mom, below zero and looks to have more room to move down

Support area holding up for now. . .

I don't have a GJ position right now. Will sit on the sidelines to see which senario plays out. . . For now I'm short biased short-term until I see a break of that 200 EMA. . .
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  • #62,057
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:53am Feb 17, 2008 9:53am
Quoting quecee5
4hr chart for u. . .

Couple of thing to note:
1) price is trading below 4hr hi/lo gann and 5sma (white line)
2) Price has been rejected yet again at the 200 EMA
3) Looking at TT, qqe5 and ZL Stoch, up move does not look convincing as indicator are still moving lower or starting to cross down as price moves upward
4) Mom, below zero and looks to have more room to move down

Support area holding up for now. . .

I don't have a GJ position right now. Will sit on the sidelines to see which senario plays out. . . For now I'm short biased short-term until I see a break of that 200 EMA. . .
hi quecee5...

nice analysis.......
  • #62,058
  • Feb 17, 2008 10:27am Feb 17, 2008 10:27am
Hi guys...

have a good day...huhuhu....okey..comeback to the analysis... my personal preview...for this week... from weekly chart...my prediction prefer to bullish candle...Gj maybe hit fibo level....23.6(215.34)...for this week...just my 2 sen opinion... trade own your risk guys.
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  • #62,059
  • Feb 17, 2008 10:42am Feb 17, 2008 10:42am
heres a week sup/res and time
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #62,060
  • Feb 17, 2008 10:54am Feb 17, 2008 10:54am
Quoting fising
Hi guys...

have a good day...huhuhu....okey..comeback to the analysis... my personal preview...for this week... from weekly chart...my prediction prefer to bullish candle...Gj maybe hit fibo level....23.6(215.34)...for this week...just my 2 sen opinion... trade own your risk guys.
Very possible. . .
If price stays above weekly 5SMA, Weekly pivot and break out of this triangle then yep u are correct.

If price breaks below the aforementioned, then it could be another ranging week initially. . .

A couple of key things to watch this week, enjoy the articles. . .

UK – British economic event risk will revolve around key Bank of England Minutes on the 20th and a highly-anticipated Retail Sales report on the 21st. BoE Minutes typically force major volatility across British Pound currency pairs, but this particular release may be of decreased significance following the recent Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. That said, traders may nonetheless respond to any surprises in the BoE’s voting to cut rates by 25 basis points at its February 7 meeting. Strong dissent in favor of unchanged interest rates would easily force a short-term rally in the GBP, while a unanimous vote in favor of the rate cut may have the opposite effect. The next day’s Retail Sales data may likewise drive major moves across British Pound currency pairs. Current consensus forecasts call for a healthy rebound in retail sales, but any disappointments could easily cause a GBP selloff. The opposite of course remains true, and a strong release would boost outlook for UK economic growth.
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