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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #301
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:23pm Feb 4, 2008 10:23pm
  •  w_z
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: hand over them pips | 61 Posts
ya i use oanda

and no i wasn't scalping. i've been in since last night, around this time. i just tightened my stop because who knows what the statement that follows the rates will be.
  • #302
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:48pm Feb 4, 2008 10:48pm
Quoting w_z
ya i use oanda

and no i wasn't scalping. i've been in since last night, around this time. i just tightened my stop because who knows what the statement that follows the rates will be.
How much of a bite did they take? I was talking with them the other day and their forumla is If stopped out during wide spread take half the wide spread and add it to the spread that you got in at.
  • #303
  • Feb 5, 2008 5:19pm Feb 5, 2008 5:19pm
Thought the drop would not hit my SL ... so went to work optimistic as price seemed to be rising after the overnight downmove. About 3 hrs later the bottom fell out. - 88 pips.

Sure wish O anda had trailing stops.
  • #304
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:58pm Feb 5, 2008 10:58pm
Kevin,

i was scouting around when i found another method by you - the one using multiple bollinger bands ?

seems interesting though, but what happened to it ?

this valley + peak method managed to trump it ?
  • #305
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:31pm Feb 6, 2008 9:31pm
Other traders are wondering about the Aussie and Kiwi. Why the Aussie didnt go up with the rate increase and US decrease. Has anyone used COT as a sort of filter? Noticed at PFX Global that although institutional investors are long on both of these pairs, sentiment is bearish. So a mixed bag.

However institutional investors are once again long on Cable and Sentiment has just turned bullish this week. So I wonder when that influence will kick in and effect price as we see it?

Lou
  • #306
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:20am Feb 7, 2008 7:20am
It took some time (8 days) to get down to 1.94 again.... and entire move started with 2 daily pins...
Attached Images
  • #307
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:25am Feb 7, 2008 7:25am
I'm currently up +100 on a short I snagged on EUR/JPY this morning. Took the break of the valley around 155.30
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #308
  • Feb 9, 2008 12:12pm Feb 9, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting swingtrade65
Hi All,

I have been trading with peaks and Valleys for quite some time now and find it to be the most effective method of trading out there, if you will let it be. I personally keep a spreadsheet of several pairs. It has the weekly direction, the daily direction and the peaks and or valleys that will reverse each direction. I personally only trade in the direction of the main trend ( which I think is the whole point of this type of system) and this spreadsheet is just a visual aid. when both weekly and daily are heading in the same direction, I frop down to the 4hr and get entries and add on spots from there. I am including the spreadsheet for anyone that wants to take a look at it.

Many Pips
Hi Swingtrade65,

I am very encouraged by how well you do trading this method. I strongly believe in trend following systems but am having difficulty determining the weekly trend that you have suggested for this system.

According to the methodology, we will initiate a long order when a previous peak is broken. This is marked out by the red horizontal line on the chart that I have attached. However, on hindsight, the main uptrend started around 19 Feb 2006, and the trend would have well been in place by the time it broke the resistance (horizontal line).

May I ask how you determine the weekly trend in this case - by rising prices in general or only by the break of the previous peak? Does the same go for the daily trend?

Looking forward to your advice. Thanks alot in advance.

Regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.JPG Size: 146 KB
  • #309
  • Feb 9, 2008 7:44pm Feb 9, 2008 7:44pm
Quoting findcount
Kevin,

i was scouting around when i found another method by you - the one using multiple bollinger bands ?

seems interesting though, but what happened to it ?

this valley + peak method managed to trump it ?

My question is with all the different systems you have described in the past, how would you rate this system compared to those?
History is written by the victors.
  • #310
  • Feb 10, 2008 8:52am Feb 10, 2008 8:52am
Quoting Money-RX
My question is with all the different systems you have described in the past, how would you rate this system compared to those?
well, Kevin is an old hand so his system always make sense. i would say this is not even a system but is common sense and logic.

i may be wrong but i think this peak and valley would be really good especially just after a break out and of course one must take note of the daily S+R as they are potential obstacles to profit so when peaks/valleys are near S+R, perhaps it's best to avoid them.

so far Daily produces too little action and potential SL is BIG, maybe 3hr or even 1 hr is best. reason why i think it's best after a breakout is obvious - pullbacks will be smaller and momentum is good.

anyone can suggest the best timeframe ?
  • #311
  • Feb 10, 2008 7:39pm Feb 10, 2008 7:39pm
I look all the time frames but but keep coming back to the hourly or even less for good entries.

A good example is the hourly on G/J from 209.50 to 208.65. Some nice trades bouncing up and down waiting for the big break.

Any thoughts on which way this will move when it comes?
History is written by the victors.
  • #312
  • Feb 10, 2008 8:12pm Feb 10, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting Money-RX
I look all the time frames but but keep coming back to the hourly or even less for good entries.

A good example is the hourly on G/J from 209.50 to 208.65. Some nice trades bouncing up and down waiting for the big break.

Any thoughts on which way this will move when it comes?
Looking at the 3hr why not put a buy just above 209.60 and a sell below 208.50 , the areas of the last peak and valley. Or you might want to look back at the last move of price off of Support or Resistance and take a direction based on that.
  • #313
  • Feb 10, 2008 8:42pm Feb 10, 2008 8:42pm
Quoting Money-RX
I look all the time frames but but keep coming back to the hourly or even less for good entries.

A good example is the hourly on G/J from 209.50 to 208.65. Some nice trades bouncing up and down waiting for the big break.

Any thoughts on which way this will move when it comes?
I wouldn't recommend 1hr or 4hr unless you can make money on daily TF.
Speaking of which... unless we break 207.70, I wouldn't be surprised to see gj testing 213 again.
  • #314
  • Feb 10, 2008 9:28pm Feb 10, 2008 9:28pm
Quoting raczekfx
I wouldn't recommend 1hr or 4hr unless you can make money on daily TF.
Speaking of which... unless we break 207.70, I wouldn't be surprised to see gj testing 213 again.
Where did you get 207.70?
History is written by the victors.
  • #315
  • Feb 10, 2008 10:06pm Feb 10, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting Money-RX
Where did you get 207.70?
from last Wed's low and valley on Thur.
  • #316
  • Feb 11, 2008 3:23am Feb 11, 2008 3:23am
Quoting Money-RX
I look all the time frames but but keep coming back to the hourly or even less for good entries.

A good example is the hourly on G/J from 209.50 to 208.65. Some nice trades bouncing up and down waiting for the big break.

Any thoughts on which way this will move when it comes?

you're asking the wrong guy (which is me) for advice.........the old hands here can offer you the really useful advice.

but nowadays, all the pairs seems to be much more 'responsive' to the Dow Jones so keeping long term positions must be done on the daily charts only. on 1hr charts, you got to take your profit before you go to bed and perhaps the last order will be a loss.

so am i the only one noticing that many pairs are now much more 'responsive' to the Dow or am i spouting nonsense again ?
  • #317
  • Feb 11, 2008 12:40pm Feb 11, 2008 12:40pm
JPY crosses are very much correlated to the Dow Jones and also (to a lesser extent) to FTSE, DAX, CAC. This is due to the degree of risk aversion of investors (carry trade).

By the way, great thread Kevin, keep up the good work
  • #318
  • Edited Feb 12, 2008 9:16pm Feb 11, 2008 11:45pm | Edited Feb 12, 2008 9:16pm
Bringing this thread back to its origins.

Positions :
Long E/U 2/10 @ 2300hrs 1.4560 - 42 still open 2/12 @ 2100hrs + 24 still open

Long A/U 2/11 @ 0000hrs .9033 + 2 still open " " + 9 " "

Long A/U 2/11 @ 0600hrs . 9054 - 19 still open " " - 12 " "

time is US Central

price action opened @ 0800 2/12 G/U long @ .9560 " " + 33 " "


A/U had a nice move up today 2/12 and now is back to where it started.
  • #319
  • Feb 17, 2008 8:33am Feb 17, 2008 8:33am
I rarely post but felt compelled to do so because it seems that one of the rare quality threads on this forum (this one), is dying out. I can understand, though... I mean, it's too simple and couldn't possibly work. Where are all the bells and flashing lights? THIS certainly couldn't be the holy-grail because it's too primitive. What was KHARVEL thinking? OK... Enough sarcasm...

Here are the results of trading this system LIVE last week - Fri 2/8 - Fri 2/15:

PAIR -------- W / L -- RESULT
EUR/USD - 3 / 0 ..... + 81
EUR/CHF -- 3 / 0 ..... + 113
GBP/CHF -- 4 / 2 ..... + 219
EUR/AUD -- 4 / 2 ..... -28
EUR/JPY ----- 4 / 3 ..... + 81
AUD/CAD ---2 / 1 ..... + 51
GBP/USD --- 3 / 3 ..... -14
GBP/JPY ----- 7 / 2 ... + 333
AUD/JPY ----- 4 / 2 ..... + 9
NZD/USD --- 1 / 1 ..... -16
EUR/CAD ---- 1 / 3 ..... -75
USD/JPY ----- 1 / 3 ..... -87
CHF/JPY ------3 / 1 ..... + 17
USD/CAD --- 1 / 0 .... + 79
AUD/USD --- 2 / 1 .... + 87
USD/CHF --- 1 / 0 ..... + 16

TOTAL (W) 44 (L) 24 (P/L) +866

I believe that +866 for the WEEK qualifies as "pretty good". Oh... did I mention last week was +411, the week before +207 and the week before that +233 (All LIVE) and that was while I was testing several scenarios. ALL WORKED.

Oozing sarcasm aside - My intention is absolutely NOT to brag but to try and show that (1) THIS "SYSTEM" WORKS and (2) It's NOT the indicators - It's YOU!... The "Holy Grail" is - YOU!

THANK YOU KHARVEL FOR BRING THE BASICS BACK TO LIFE!!! (Note for NEWBIES: There are MANY quality traders who posted in this thread... Studying their thought process might be worth your while)

I have to admit, however, that my chart is somewhat complicated and extremely difficult to read... want to see it (more sarcasm ) ?
http://forexfactory.com/home/theline...ics/charts.gif
Attached Image
  • #320
  • Feb 17, 2008 10:48am Feb 17, 2008 10:48am
excellent stuff freevey... i think the best thing in forex is MM and with a simple system and MM works well... though I am struggling on the MM side of things and time frame, which once I have cracked, will be good to go live.

can I ask you a couple of questions.

1. what time frames are you using?
2. how many pairs are you trading at a time?
3. most important... what MM are using?

thanks
guess

Quoting freevey
I rarely post but felt compelled to do so because it seems that one of the rare quality threads on this forum (this one), is dying out. I can understand, though... I mean, it's too simple and couldn't possibly work. Where are all the bells and flashing lights? THIS certainly couldn't be the holy-grail because it's too primitive. What was KHARVEL thinking? OK... Enough sarcasm...

Here are the results of trading this system LIVE last week - Fri 2/8 - Fri 2/15:

PAIR -------- W / L -- RESULT
EUR/USD - 3 / 0 ..... + 81
EUR/CHF -- 3 / 0 ..... + 113
GBP/CHF -- 4 / 2 ..... + 219
EUR/AUD -- 4 / 2 ..... -28
EUR/JPY ----- 4 / 3 ..... + 81
AUD/CAD ---2 / 1 ..... + 51
GBP/USD --- 3 / 3 ..... -14
GBP/JPY ----- 7 / 2 ... + 333
AUD/JPY ----- 4 / 2 ..... + 9
NZD/USD --- 1 / 1 ..... -16
EUR/CAD ---- 1 / 3 ..... -75
USD/JPY ----- 1 / 3 ..... -87
CHF/JPY ------3 / 1 ..... + 17
USD/CAD --- 1 / 0 .... + 79
AUD/USD --- 2 / 1 .... + 87
USD/CHF --- 1 / 0 ..... + 16

TOTAL (W) 44 (L) 24 (P/L) +866

I believe that +866 for the WEEK qualifies as "pretty good". Oh... did I mention last week was +411, the week before +207 and the week before that +233 (All LIVE) and that was while I was testing several scenarios. ALL WORKED.

Oozing sarcasm aside - My intention is absolutely NOT to brag but to try and show that (1) THIS "SYSTEM" WORKS and (2) It's NOT the indicators - It's YOU!... The "Holy Grail" is - YOU!

THANK YOU KHARVEL FOR BRING THE BASICS BACK TO LIFE!!! (Note for NEWBIES: There are MANY quality traders who posted in this thread... Studying their thought process might be worth your while)

I have to admit, however, that my chart is somewhat complicated and extremely difficult to read... want to see it (more sarcasm ) ?
http://forexfactory.com/home/theline...ics/charts.gif
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