Steviet's Live Trades! | Page 157 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Dukascopy Live Account - Don't Post if you haven't traded live with them! 117 replies

My Live Trades on my Live Account 588 replies

go live or bust ... diary of an fx live-trader-wannabe 1,621 replies

Trade 2 live accounts - one with full balance, 2nd as a live test? 0 replies

Oanda 10$ live acc quick-start guide (for newbie to trade live safe) 13 replies

Attachments: Steviet's Live Trades!
Exit Attachments

Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #3,121
  • Feb 15, 2008 4:03pm Feb 15, 2008 4:03pm
the notation here is what i currently trade as my system. if i stretch out my stops (which are usually 100's of pips) and cut my winners with 50 pips tp's then i can approximate something similar to what you do anyway, so it was quite easy for me to pick up.

the solid lines are trade lines for which i would follow simple, large scale breakout signals (blue arrows).

so you can see the current blue arrow would normally be a sell for me (i don't trade this pair normally).

take some time to digest the chart. if you look at the first arrow (far left) then the drawdown can be quite large at first (hence wide stops) before i can pick it off with a trade line (solid line).

the second blue arrow is a trade that works quicker and the third blue arrow is where we are at right now.

my question just concerns the big RED arrow only (next post)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #3,122
  • Feb 15, 2008 4:21pm Feb 15, 2008 4:21pm
managing the inevitable drawdowns...haven't had to worry so far, but as you know, sooner or later a big unrealised loss will appear on the statement. this is where i need your expert opinion.

let's say i sold 3 positions on the red arrow which turn to out to be a swing low, around 206.80. the upside to the grid is set at 214, or i could add a 1000 to it to give a stop of 216.80. the next blue arrow is normally where i would of gone long. i think you said you would normally try to trade your way out of these situations so your eventual profit from say the red arrow to the top of the move (around 214) would cover the losses (if possible)?

so if i have 3 x 1000 = 3000 max loss to cover you would have to make that up (mostly with buy orders?) and perhaps still come out ahead if your stops are hit (i think you went thru this situation in the new year).

or could i just buy 3 trades at the 2nd blue arrow and hope to "hedge" (oh no! not the h-word again! LOL) at that point (nearly 400 pips into the loss) up to the top? but then that would tie up 6 trades to limit the loss. if price came back then i could close the buy orders with 50 pip tp's and hope it comes back down to my original sell orders (red arrow again).

just wanted to clarify what you would of done...as always your advice is greatly appreciated and received with many thanks!

(apologies for all these long posts, but i'm not sure if anybody has asked in this detail - just wanted to make sure i follow your thinking here)

thanks again, stevie...you are the GBP/JPY master...may the force be with you!!!
  • #3,123
  • Feb 15, 2008 5:28pm Feb 15, 2008 5:28pm
I was actually at a dinner party earlier but had to take my laptop to catch the end of the week lol.

Right, I'm home now so here goes....
Quoting Isotonic
managing the inevitable drawdowns...haven't had to worry so far, but as you know, sooner or later a big unrealised loss will appear on the statement. this is where i need your expert opinion.

OK, as you say, the start is pretty easy and you may be able to close 5 or 10 positions without having to worry about the unrealised losses start cropping up

let's say i sold 3 positions on the red arrow which turn to out to be a swing low, around 206.80. the upside to the grid is set at 214, or i could add a 1000 to it to give a stop of 216.80. the next blue arrow is normally where i would of gone long. i think you said you would normally try to trade your way out of these situations so your eventual profit from say the red arrow to the top of the move (around 214) would cover the losses (if possible)?

Funny you should say that - I did lol. OK, this is where the maximum of 5 positions either long or short is very important to the long term success. I currently have 5 short positions under 210 and have been just taking longs for my profits for a while now. If that rule wasn't in place you could easily have many positions, all against the short term trend within the range which would kill you (not literally but you knaow what I'm saying)

so if i have 3 x 1000 = 3000 max loss to cover you would have to make that up (mostly with buy orders?) and perhaps still come out ahead if your stops are hit (i think you went thru this situation in the new year).

Yes, its surprising how quickly you can make this up - in essence the maximum you should ever have to make up is 5000 pips (worst case scenario). If you can pick up a couple of hundred pips a day on average then the winners soon mount up to offset the unrealised drawdowns.

Some days are like today where I only picked up 100 pips but as I have more short positions on than longs at present, my unrealised drawdown decreased nicely.

or could i just buy 3 trades at the 2nd blue arrow and hope to "hedge" (oh no! not the h-word again! LOL) at that point (nearly 400 pips into the loss) up to the top? but then that would tie up 6 trades to limit the loss. if price came back then i could close the buy orders with 50 pip tp's and hope it comes back down to my original sell orders (red arrow again).

In your example you are looking at the 4 hour chart - I would have started buying on dips a lot lower to offset using the 5 min charts - there are plenty of 50+ pip moves both with and counter trend every day on GJ.

I just wanted to clarify what you would of done...as always your advice is greatly appreciated and received with many thanks!

(apologies for all these long posts, but i'm not sure if anybody has asked in this detail - just wanted to make sure i follow your thinking here)

It really is no trouble - I don't know if I could teach anyone else exactly how I do this - hell I don't even know what I'm doing most of the time : I'm in a weird situation as ideally I would be doing this full time. As it is, my work patterns restricts my screen time which sometimes is a blessing but most times not. You will see that my best month by far was November. No coincidence that I had two weeks off work that month and was averaging 500-600 pips a day.

thanks again, stevie...you are the GBP/JPY master...may the force be with you!!!

I really don't know about that lol. I just do what I do
  • #3,124
  • Feb 16, 2008 6:33am Feb 16, 2008 6:33am
thanks again for all your responses...hope you picked a nice bottle of wine for your hosts!

what you said clarifies my own thoughts. on my statement the buy stops follow my own system but the market orders were just on a whim really - i didn't think we'd break resistance so i just nicked 50 pip whipsaws. but if i'm caught offside then i need to quickly offset with trades on a shorter timescale and 4h won't be fast enough.

i did look at 1hr (my last trade for the week) that broke the downtrend so now i could be in the same situation next week.

for the example i gave, if after a couple of hundred pips down, i could just take buy orders and rack up the 50 pip profits on say a 15min chart (5min is too much for me - remember your friend who ended up with a coronary). but next week should provide me with a more realistic test and i will be careful to balance out my shorts vs longs too.

you know what? i think you've got something here and if i can overcome this hurdle and keep my chart system the same i think i could do something similar to what you've done over the past 4 months.

still early days yet...if i don't screw up badly then i could continue posting my weekly statements here if you like...just to show that your success can be replicated.

one more question and i'm done (for now at least.LOL)...do you look at gbp/usd x usd/jpy (=gbp/jpy) charts too?
  • #3,125
  • Feb 16, 2008 6:58am Feb 16, 2008 6:58am
Just back from work (does it ever end???) to see you've posted again.

Yup, you're definitely on the right track with what you're saying

I think the 5 maximum positions either way is very important because it prevents you from getting over committed either long or short. There will be times when you've got 5 shorts on just below the current price and 5 longs above the current price. That isn't a problem in itself - you just wait for the market to tell you which way it wants to go next and as positions are closed out you can replace.

The good thing about me being away during most of London and New York is that when we get a day say with a range of 300 or 400 pips with an open & close within a few pips of each other, I could well have 4 or 5 positions close out both long and short during the day.

The not so good thing is if it decides to move 300 or 400 pips one way. usually I'll still pick up the pips from positions already in place but the ones open in the opposite direction are now hundreds of pips away from the price.

What I do in this case is as follows. Say we have a move up of 400 pips and all my longs are now cleared but still have 5 shorts in the market..... I'm now looking for dips to place longs - if it bounces back up I've got 50 pips and rinse & repeat lol. If it breaks small t/f support, no problem - I'll place another long maybe 50 to 100 pips below that one. If that one closes out then its rinse & repeat - if it falls further I'll look to place another one etc etc. The 50-100 pips isn't a rule written in stone - also looking for sort term support/resistance & also just placing a new position in what I would consider a good 'area'.

There is quite a bit of discretion invovled but I think it's very very doable and for someone of your intellect & cool headidness it should be a breeze (there's another guy that hedges GJ although in a completely different way to me).

You're quite welcome to post your results here - maybe I'll learn something.

And to your last question, yes I do keep a pretty close eye on what USDJPY & GBPUSD are doing which can help in my decision making.

Keep asking questions - it actually helps me too to reinforce my ideas and what I'm trying to achieve

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting Isotonic
thanks again for all your responses...hope you picked a nice bottle of wine for your hosts!

what you said clarifies my own thoughts. on my statement the buy stops follow my own system but the market orders were just on a whim really - i didn't think we'd break resistance so i just nicked 50 pip whipsaws. but if i'm caught offside then i need to quickly offset with trades on a shorter timescale and 4h won't be fast enough.

i did look at 1hr (my last trade for the week) that broke the downtrend so now i could be in the same situation next week.

for the example i gave, if after a couple of hundred pips down, i could just take buy orders and rack up the 50 pip profits on say a 15min chart (5min is too much for me - remember your friend who ended up with a coronary). but next week should provide me with a more realistic test and i will be careful to balance out my shorts vs longs too.

you know what? i think you've got something here and if i can overcome this hurdle and keep my chart system the same i think i could do something similar to what you've done over the past 4 months.

still early days yet...if i don't screw up badly then i could continue posting my weekly statements here if you like...just to show that your success can be replicated.

one more question and i'm done (for now at least.LOL)...do you look at gbp/usd x usd/jpy (=gbp/jpy) charts too?
  • #3,126
  • Feb 16, 2008 7:15am Feb 16, 2008 7:15am
Whoop whoop!!!! Now I've been told by 'the boss' it's time to go shopping

As you can see the fun never ends in my household
  • #3,127
  • Feb 16, 2008 9:38am Feb 16, 2008 9:38am
You've caught my attention lately with this shhh..H thing.
BTW nice avatar. Wish my hair was that lively and robust!:

I was beginning to think I was either crazy or just plain lucky, but you've managed to put into words your 'H' trading experience that I frankly have trouble describing. I'm still a part time novice trader, but I do realize that a musician who uses words to describe his work is like an author dancing on his keyboard, yet you have managed to describe what I've experienced on a rare occasion when I was feeling adventuresome.

I'm looking forward to learning from someone who has a good handle on a great method.
  • #3,128
  • Feb 16, 2008 9:38am Feb 16, 2008 9:38am
quick question. On the managed account it appears that interest is paid/taken but by changing the price, so not like your platform.

Let's assume a 1mini-lot trade. On ibfx they charge roughly $2.72 per day to hold short position on this currency. The pip value is roughly .90. So at 50 pips we would make about $45. If you hold the short for 17 days you will pay about $46 in interest.

Now, maybe you never hold longer than that I don't know. But if you did, how would this play into the equation?

You may say well it goes both ways so you also could be in long positions more than 17 days and make all that money to equal out.

I understand this, but most of us look at current positions and profitibility in a current state and it would be tough seeing a position go into negative and stay there even after it is closed. Have you ever thought that if you sold a position and it goes against you for a while that by the time it does return to where you sold it you could get MORE than 50 pips and should go for more to cover that interest loss? Since the entire position will be a loser no matter what if you only shoot for 50 pips.

Thanks for your response.
  • #3,129
  • Feb 16, 2008 10:25am Feb 16, 2008 10:25am
LOL, I'm starting to wonder whether I'm getting too old for the spiky hair & earring thing but you're only young once lol.

As I've said in other threads, I feel comfortable trading this way and it's been consistently profitable so why change? Yes, I've also been profitable trading a more conventional method but was so frustrated getting stopped out by whipsaws time and time again. I just thought let's think outside the box a little bit and I came up with this.

Quoting Micro-MiniMe
You've caught my attention lately with this shhh..H thing.
BTW nice avatar. Wish my hair was that lively and robust!:

I was beginning to think I was either crazy or just plain lucky, but you've managed to put into words your 'H' trading experience that I frankly have trouble describing. I'm still a part time novice trader, but I do realize that a musician who uses words to describe his work is like an author dancing on his keyboard, yet you have managed to describe what I've experienced on a rare occasion when I was feeling adventuresome.

I'm looking forward to learning from someone who has a good handle on a great method.
  • #3,130
  • Feb 16, 2008 10:35am Feb 16, 2008 10:35am
Yup, I've had to adjust slightly on this one as Saxobank move the entry price every day on the outstanding positions.

I've used a bit of discretion again on this one. The longs, that have been sitting there a while will take profit at more than the 50 pips and, depending on how the price action is around the t/p level determines whether I settle for the 50 or let it run. I've taken profit on a few longs recently at +80 area but also manually closed a couple for around +50 if the move is looking likely to exhaust. It also depends of course whether I'm around to make this decision. Same with the shorts - so far have adjusted t/p to stay around +50 but would be prepared to just take a break even if it seemed prudent to do so.

Each position on this account is 5 minilots so a t/p is around the $225 mark and have had 96 of those so far . Still waiting for the first s/l to get hit at around $4500 but when it happens I'm more than ready. It's just the cost of doing business.


Quoting llambert3
quick question. On the managed account it appears that interest is paid/taken but by changing the price, so not like your platform.

Let's assume a 1mini-lot trade. On ibfx they charge roughly $2.72 per day to hold short position on this currency. The pip value is roughly .90. So at 50 pips we would make about $45. If you hold the short for 17 days you will pay about $46 in interest.

Now, maybe you never hold longer than that I don't know. But if you did, how would this play into the equation?

You may say well it goes both ways so you also could be in long positions more than 17 days and make all that money to equal out.

I understand this, but most of us look at current positions and profitibility in a current state and it would be tough seeing a position go into negative and stay there even after it is closed. Have you ever thought that if you sold a position and it goes against you for a while that by the time it does return to where you sold it you could get MORE than 50 pips and should go for more to cover that interest loss? Since the entire position will be a loser no matter what if you only shoot for 50 pips.

Thanks for your response.
  • #3,131
  • Feb 16, 2008 11:17am Feb 16, 2008 11:17am
Quoting steviet
Yup, I've had to adjust slightly on this one as Saxobank move the entry price every day on the outstanding positions.
hello steviet,...i got one question ,..how do u take profit, can u lock it at saxo,..cause each time i wona do that,..it says too close to market,...so if ur tp is not reached,..and is headed in the oposite direction,..do u close it manually?....thanks
its just money
  • #3,132
  • Feb 16, 2008 11:24am Feb 16, 2008 11:24am
Hi there,

I don't ever lock in profits. I will always just let the t/p get hit apart from 2 scenarios.

1. If a position is in profit but hasn't reached the 50 pip t/p at New York close.

2. Also the scenario in the above post where I have taken a long a few days/weeks earlier.

Quoting de123
hello steviet,...i got one question ,..how do u take profit, can u lock it at saxo,..cause each time i wona do that,..it says too close to market,...so if ur tp is not reached,..and is headed in the oposite direction,..do u close it manually?....thanks
  • #3,133
  • Feb 17, 2008 5:04am Feb 17, 2008 5:04am
thanks stevie once again for taking the time to reply to all my questions. i'm surprised given your success that more people haven't really asked in detail - maybe i missed it in this thread (pretty large these days).

i will consider all that you said and see how next week goes.
  • #3,134
  • Feb 18, 2008 1:44pm Feb 18, 2008 1:44pm
hey stevie!

i've tried to work out the daily s & r levels using a weekly chart (see below). i'm getting grids of various sizes from 1000 to 2000. i just wanted to know if your daily grids are about 1000, the same as your stop losses?

the current range from the new year has been around 1000 pips frm 204-214, but if you zoom out like i did then you get a different perspective.

i'm redoing the orders to enter 1 trade at a time and cascading them so that the next order follows on 1 pip after the last t/p, so this should help to minimise drawdowns. if the pair breaks fast tomorrow i have cascaded down 500 pips!!

the real test of this methodology is managing drawdowns and if i can overcome that hurdle, even when approaching stop losses by cranking out the fifties to cover them then that should be it really.

managed to close another fifty last night - been quiet today since it's a US holiday.

i wish i'd come up with this approach sooner myself!! lets hope i can survive the inevitable drawdowns.lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #3,135
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:11pm Feb 18, 2008 2:11pm
Hey Iso!

I've spent the weekend reading 'Bird Watching in Lion Country' and it's spooky how closely the good doctor's view of the market and trading in general correlate with mine. A few obvious differences but you were right lol.

OK, onto your post....

This is how I came up with the 1000 stop loss figure - unless we have extreme moves over a short period of time, these 1000 or so ranges on the daily charts keep cropping up and generally stay within that range for long enough for a good profit to be made. It's never going to be perfect but nothing ever is.

Very quiet day today - so far banked 100 pips and have one position just in profit as I write this. One thing you will begin to see Iso is that virtually every day you'll have at least one position get into the +40's and then reverse. Don't get hung up about it - it's all part of the method and stuff happens.

Just closed my 100th trade today on the managed account and am now at a point where I have 5 stop losses 'in hand'. Of course I'll make more winning trades before one or more stop losses are hit so things are looking very good at the moment. You'll notice that preservation of capital is more important to me than the actual profits. Take care of the first part and the second follows automatically .

Like anything worthwhile it requires discpline & perseverance & if there's anyone on these boards that can do this it's you .

Keep me post & keep asking.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Isotonic
hey stevie!

i've tried to work out the daily s & r levels using a weekly chart (see below). i'm getting grids of various sizes from 1000 to 2000. i just wanted to know if your daily grids are about 1000, the same as your stop losses?

the current range from the new year has been around 1000 pips frm 204-214, but if you zoom out like i did then you get a different perspective.

i'm redoing the orders to enter 1 trade at a time and cascading them so that the next order follows on 1 pip after the last t/p, so this should help to minimise drawdowns. if the pair breaks fast tomorrow i have cascaded down 500 pips!!

the real test of this methodology is managing drawdowns and if i can overcome that hurdle, even when approaching stop losses by cranking out the fifties to cover them then that should be it really.

managed to close another fifty last night - been quiet today since it's a US holiday.

i wish i'd come up with this approach sooner myself!! lets hope i can survive the inevitable drawdowns.lol
  • #3,136
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:58pm Feb 18, 2008 2:58pm
Hi Steviet,

Been looking over this thread, I too trade G/J, 95% of the time, but because I trade G/J, I also keep a close eye on G/U and U/J, and occasionally will enter trades for them as well.

Just wanted to comment that I agree with your trading philosophy, its very nice. I personally choose to hedge positions and would rather buy/sell tops and bottoms then close at a flat loss. I shoot to make up enough pips hedging that should I close a trade at a loss, I will have "Broke Even" or actually made a profit overall. I also use a "Pip Bank" My goal is 100 pips a day, anything extra gets put into the bank. Should I not have a chance to hedge, I will take a withdrawal from the bank, but overall when it comes down to it I am still getting +100 pips a day.

In addition, like you I understand the importance of money management, and not over leveraging. Although nowhere explicit do I have a set rule, I try and keep the number of trades open to 15 or under. As a result of this though, I trade smaller lot sizes. But in the end, it all works out.

Quote
You'll notice that preservation of capital is more important to me than the actual profits. Take care of the first part and the second follows automatically .
Couldn't agree more, everyone should know that, it is important.

Well, I wish you continued success with your endeavors in trading...just stopping by and saying hello.

Zack
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #3,137
  • Feb 18, 2008 3:09pm Feb 18, 2008 3:09pm
Hey Zack

Yes, I've seen you over in Breeze's thread and I see you've just started your own journal

My method is really just a 'bringing together' of things I've picked up over the last 18 months or so. There's plenty of ways to 'skin a cat' and this is just mine.

I wish you all the best in your trading & look forward to reading of your progress in your journal.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting pearsonfx
Hi Steviet,

Been looking over this thread, I too trade G/J, 95% of the time, but because I trade G/J, I also keep a close eye on G/U and U/J, and occasionally will enter trades for them as well.

Just wanted to comment that I agree with your trading philosophy, its very nice. I personally choose to hedge positions and would rather buy/sell tops and bottoms then close at a flat loss. I shoot to make up enough pips hedging that should I close a trade at a loss, I will have "Broke Even" or actually made a profit overall. I also use a "Pip Bank" My goal is 100 pips a day, anything extra gets put into the bank. Should I not have a chance to hedge, I will take a withdrawal from the bank, but overall when it comes down to it I am still getting +100 pips a day.

In addition, like you I understand the importance of money management, and not over leveraging. Although nowhere explicit do I have a set rule, I try and keep the number of trades open to 15 or under. As a result of this though, I trade smaller lot sizes. But in the end, it all works out.

Couldn't agree more, everyone should know that, it is important.

Well, I wish you continued success with your endeavors in trading...just stopping by and saying hello.

Zack
  • #3,138
  • Feb 18, 2008 3:42pm Feb 18, 2008 3:42pm
Well, that position that didn't want to close out has hit t/p now
Quoting steviet
Hey Iso!

I've spent the weekend reading 'Bird Watching in Lion Country' and it's spooky how closely the good doctor's view of the market and trading in general correlate with mine. A few obvious differences but you were right lol.

OK, onto your post....

This is how I came up with the 1000 stop loss figure - unless we have extreme moves over a short period of time, these 1000 or so ranges on the daily charts keep cropping up and generally stay within that range for long enough for a good profit to be made. It's never going to be perfect but nothing ever is.

Very quiet day today - so far banked 100 pips and have one position just in profit as I write this. One thing you will begin to see Iso is that virtually every day you'll have at least one position get into the +40's and then reverse. Don't get hung up about it - it's all part of the method and stuff happens.

Edit....150 now - just spiked up over 211.45 to clear out an earlier long

Just closed my 100th trade today on the managed account and am now at a point where I have 5 stop losses 'in hand'. Of course I'll make more winning trades before one or more stop losses are hit so things are looking very good at the moment. You'll notice that preservation of capital is more important to me than the actual profits. Take care of the first part and the second follows automatically .

Like anything worthwhile it requires discpline & perseverance & if there's anyone on these boards that can do this it's you .

Keep me post & keep asking.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #3,139
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:25pm Feb 18, 2008 8:25pm
Hi Steviet

I am glad to see your strategy has been paying off since you started to manage other people's money.

It's always hard to make the shift from your own money and other people's money, especially at the beginning.

Just for educational purposes - given the success of this thread - I would like to see you post more charts and discuss the setups of your trades.

I am sure that your entry points have a lot to do with your success.

IS
  • #3,140
  • Feb 19, 2008 1:05am Feb 19, 2008 1:05am
Hi IS,

Thanks for your comments. Yes, suddenly trading a much larger account was different, however I've just continued to do what I do. I just concentrate on the pips and let the money look after itself.

I'm very comfortable with my method which obviously helps a great deal.

The single most important factor in trading this way is identifying the daily range we are currently trading in. It's normally been around the 1000 pip mark, sometimes more sometimes less. As Iso said we've been pretty much in the 204 to 214 range since the beginning of the year. Anyone pulling up a daily chart should be able to identify these ranges pretty quickly.

Whilst it stays within this range, I'll continue to make my pips. The one certainty is that it will at some point break out of the range and at that point I'll have to take at least one loss, maybe two, maybe more. I try not to have too many positions open at the range extremes although this can be easier said than done. When a new range is forming, you can never be sure exactly where the new move will take us.

As far as entries are concerned, they are the LEAST important part of my strategy. Sure, some are perfect and I'll get my 50 pips within minutes but that doesn't mean I'm a genius. Some are lousy entries but that doesn't make me a bad trader either. The important thing is to stay level headed and always keep the big picture in mind. GBPJPY moves 200 pips one way then 100 the other just for fun and it can be easy to get caught up in these massive intraday moves.

Kind Regards
Steve
0 traders viewing now