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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,501
  • Feb 15, 2008 8:37am Feb 15, 2008 8:37am
Quoting Acs_112
Thanks for the reply Fti,



Am i right in my analysis that the gbp/usd and eur/usd are not moving in harmony is this the kind of thing you mean by intermarket relationships? and is what gives clues to unrest in the markest?
Hi Acs_112,

No, the relationship now is out of sync, from normal. So ineffects , something in the undercurrent is developing. Only problem, being retired ,it is difficult to put my finger on it. By the time we find out , the battle may be over. Probably interest rates related.

I'll make a few calls to try to snoop around.

regards
  • #1,502
  • Feb 15, 2008 9:29am Feb 15, 2008 9:29am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
This was brought to my attention.
All Big boys.

How much of this is true?
Are there invisible fingers in the markets?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcgd67Sxvzo&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5Y5BK89HKE

I wonder.
How much of this is the truth, and propaganda??

regards
I likey fti, but yes I wonder too...I think like most things the truth lies somewhere in between left and right wing....all with a grain of salt.

The CFR is great resource for other studies ie. political and economical developments throughout the hot spots of the world.

NP
  • #1,503
  • Edited 3:13pm Feb 15, 2008 9:39am | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting gfsr
Hello fti,

What do you mean by the 'time scale' in the above situation and in trading in general (how u use it)? I myself believe that timing is a key element to understanding market structure and in general trading success; is it not?



And I think the above is a bit of a case of :
一 子 錯 ， 滿 盤 皆 落 索
for the Feds.

Cheers, :-)
Hi gfsr,
LOL, well, lets see how they are going to back paddle the situation.
Wonder what spooked them to panic, the way they did.
Socgen incident is too lame an excuse.
But what's really weird is the strength in the USD now.
Maybe there's bigger sharks in the waters.

Most of my contacts are still on holidays, mostly are squared.
The balls in the feds court, most agreed. Even Brainspan. and some are trying to pin it on him.LOL

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/

and he was the one always warning of the "excessive exuberance".
"Scapegoat" is the word, when "booboo" is more appropriate.
What a world?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080215/...t_surveillance
Yeah
"when you can't convince them. confuse them."

Oh, sorry , about time scale. I used wrong word, should be time tenure.
Brace yourselfs, its gonna be a long long rollercoaster ride.
The important thingy, be nimble, make it your advantage.

regards

PS: And he fights back, good for him.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=47033

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1189...googlenews_wsj
  • #1,504
  • Feb 15, 2008 1:11pm Feb 15, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting amenlo9
hi all.just want to know how you all allocated your resources (Equity).

my current equity is allocated to 50 troops.will it be too risky or i should make it to 100 troops?
I have 32 troops and I bring them back home every so often for R/R. I mean: I lock my profits, my attack sequence is 1-2-3 and my rescue sequence is 3-9-20. I recuest more than once. I just pump the 5 M bar to break to protect my book.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,505
  • Feb 15, 2008 3:07pm Feb 15, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting luSan
I have 32 troops and I bring them back home every so often for R/R. I mean: I lock my profits, my attack sequence is 1-2-3 and my rescue sequence is 3-9-20. I recuest more than once. I just pump the 5 M bar to break to protect my book.
Hi Lusan,

Am I reading right?
You really mean that your attack sequense is 3,2,1
and your rescue is 3,9,20 .

Right?
So your attack is a reverse fibo and your rescue is a greater than martingale.

How's your dance, is it good so far?

regards
  • #1,506
  • Feb 15, 2008 4:51pm Feb 15, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting amenlo9
hi all.just want to know how you all allocated your resources (Equity).

my current equity is allocated to 50 troops.will it be too risky or i should make it to 100 troops?
Hi amenlo9,

To calculate my troops for a battle I use 1% of book for my max loss and I divide that even further to give me my troops.

For example, I have a 100k book, my risk is 1%=$1000, to allow for a comfortable 2nd level rescue or even a 3rd I'll dived this 1000 to give me a unit risk of $1/pip or 1000 troops! (in other words I use a lot size of $10,000).
When in battle I use the fib sequence to enter as PA allows and usually only up to 20 troops which when in full force will net me $20 a pip or 20 pips per 1 pip move in my favour.
Although it seems very conservative at first you are never too exposed unless you are advancing with the price, if you have to rescue you should have very little exposure. Taking profits I use the reverse fib sequence as PA dictates and if you calculate your takings at $1 a pip you will see you can take a few hundred pips out of say a 50-60 pip run!

By the time your run is exhausting you should have only a few troops or just a scout in to keep an eye on the action ready to make a quick rescue or attack again.

Mick.

P.S. Using the above I can ussually make about .5-1% of book easily, I'm still leraning the dance steps but once I stop stumbling I may be a bit more aggressive
  • #1,507
  • Feb 15, 2008 5:33pm Feb 15, 2008 5:33pm
Quoting fti
Hi Jairo,
You meant the "hollow earth theory"? LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9VoLStjf0A

regards
Hi FTI,

I meant the little green (or grey) men from outer space...

Btw, as we entered a little fun break... I don't like much to think I am dancing with a lady, trying to take money from her at the time she does the same to me... I prefer to see the market as a blind beast I must defeat while dodging the wild furious attempts it does to make me into pieces.

Skills, confidence and "bloodthirstiness" I think are necessary. I doubt if we can win with a respectful attitude towards the market (not that I think you are respectful, rather the contrary..).

Thank you again and again and again. Maybe hard times are coming to the Bank traders, lol...
  • #1,508
  • Feb 15, 2008 6:24pm Feb 15, 2008 6:24pm
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan,

Am I reading right?
You really mean that your attack sequense is 3,2,1
and your rescue is 3,9,20 .

Right?
So your attack is a reverse fibo and your rescue is a greater than martingale.

How's your dance, is it good so far?

regards
My dance: Scout: 1 then if Attack: 2-3 and if rescue: 3-9-20.
My dance is for a very short period. I want to be done within 1 hr. I play from 4:00 to 6:00 am. Then I go back to sleep and run to work. My dance changes everyday. I really cannot predict what every morning will bring.

My profit taking? Whenever I feel is right. No fixed rules. I just do not want to find myself in the wrong trend and then having to fight it out for 3 or 4 hours. -Which I have done.- Maybe I could do better but so far I pick about 60 pips/day.

I think that the most important lessons I have learned from you is that trading is a war, that a loser is the one that ends the session with less cash than at the beginning, and the confirmation that stop and indicator will not help me in this battle. Before you, the most I could do was 10 pips/trade with many loses due to the famous stop-losses. You changed every thing. I am grateful.

My results are excellent since I began learning from you. My sucess rate is about 90 %. I play very small because I learning and I need to play fast and accurate. I want to be out within 12 bars! Probably very optimist but I noticed in your example that you were managing the campaign bar-by-bar. That makes a lot sense to me. I keep meditating about it but I cannot implement it because Oanda does not allow the flexibility that might be neccessarily.

So far I had not yet to go into 20 defence because the 9 is good for recovery. I might repeat 9 several time if needed. 20 is reserved for my do-or-die.

One thing that I notice, if that the potential for profit appear better during rescue because we commit more troops to the game. I do not like that. It is not balanced. I want to explore this issue further.

Fibo? I do not trust fibo and I am beginning to distrust S/R and trend line too. Am lost? My sequence is just what I read from you: linear attack, and geometrical defence. I do not do any calculation as other people here do. I have no time -it does not feel right either- but I keep my eyes on the book and try to get even asap, then move into profit.

Below is example this week. I did not pump at all because the only opportunity was in bar 14 and I felt that the market war ready to turn and the risk was too higher.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,509
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:09pm Feb 15, 2008 7:09pm
Hi luSan,
by fib, Fti means how you enter troops.

for example, I enter my troops in this pattern

1 1 2 3 5 8, this gives me 20 troops in at full attack, sometimes I don't get to 20, sometimes only 12 say.
When taking profits I reverse the order, if I had 20 troops in I take out 8 first, then 5 and so on.
This saves running calculations and is easy to keep track of.
If in rescue I enter the same way, if the scout is in I'll enter in 1 more, if PA is not with me I might send in the next 2 as well to get my base price closer for a quick exit, it all depends on the dance.

This is a little table I use so that I can look at my overall exposure to know how many troops I have in at any given time, I don't need it anymore but it was handy while learning the sequence.

fib count: 1 1 2 3 5 8
Troos in : 1 2 4 7 12 20
  • #1,510
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:13pm Feb 15, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting Jairo
Hi FTI,

I meant the little green (or grey) men from outer space...

Btw, as we entered a little fun break... I don't like much to think I am dancing with a lady, trying to take money from her at the time she does the same to me... I prefer to see the market as a blind beast I must defeat while dodging the wild furious attempts it does to make me into pieces.

Skills, confidence and "bloodthirstiness" I think are necessary. I doubt if we can win with a respectful attitude towards the market (not that I think you are respectful, rather the contrary..).

Thank you again and again and again. Maybe hard times are coming to the Bank traders, lol...
I play chess. I love chess. In chess, we play to kill the enemy king. Why not to kill the market dragon? For me losing 1 cent is as painfull as losing a fortune. I learned when I found myself losing all my week game by playing forex during the News.

My dance is a killing dance. I tell you I never expected that finding myself losing 5 cents would be as painful a losing millions.

Losing is not a question. fti shows that we lose when we lose ourselves. We must be as vampires. You are right!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,511
  • Feb 15, 2008 8:15pm Feb 15, 2008 8:15pm
thanks MickD and Lusan for the valuable information!
  • #1,512
  • Feb 15, 2008 9:24pm Feb 15, 2008 9:24pm
Hello fti and everyone else,

I wanted to share my experience with this invaluable thread. I found it in the middle of a drawdown which was taking its toll on me psychologically as well as financially. I was losing focus and starting to gamble, which of course merely snowballed my losses.

While I have my own strategy, I learned a number of very important things from fti’s approach.

1)Hating losses – see the Wilder tables which fti posted. I was well aware of the mathematics, but this really brought it home to me. I thought I hated losses before – now I WILL NOT TOLERATE losses. I mean this in I believe the correct way – I do everything to bring my losses back to break-even when possible, and am not afraid to pull the trigger on a small loss or breakeven when I see poor potential remaining in the trade. This ties in with

2)Fti’s attitude towards stop-losses. Now, I still use them, but I position them much more leniently, more like disaster insurance, and my attitude is that I will pull the trigger manually before they are hit, based on price action not on some arbitrary number. In fact, this is academic right now, as in the last week of trading my stops never came into play.

Fti’s statements that stop-losses are a way of avoiding paying proper attention to the unfolding price action really hit home with me. I had been placing stop-loss and take-profit orders, and then walking away from the trade. I thought this was “disciplined” – all the while using it as an excuse to avoid examining the unfolding price action. Now, I exit my trades – win, loss or breakeven – when I feel that there are no legitimate reasons to stay in the trade based on price action. This involves intense attention. This is difficult, but so far it has brought results.

3)The idea of “rescues”. I don’t see this as some of you do, with the metaphors of troops and the carefully worked out Fibonacci progressions of position size for the “troops”. I simply see the rescue as a re-entry when you have got the direction right but the timing wrong. I used to do this on occasion, and tended to be successful, but felt vaguely guilty due to dogma about “you shouldn’t double down” and “never average losers”. Now I see it as a legitimate and very useful strategy when employed with care.

4)Lastly, thanks for reminding me of the Art of War. It has long been a favourite of mine, along with the Tao te Ching. I don’t use these books as trading manuals, but find that reading them puts me in the right state of mind to trade.


This week I had 4 winners, 5 breakevens and no losses, for a total of 212 pips. I’m coming out of my drawdown, and even better, I feel my level of awareness is at a new level. Thanks again to fti and others who have contributed to this thread.

Good trading to you
magicdust
  • #1,513
  • Edited 9:05am Feb 16, 2008 8:54am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting luSan
I play chess. I love chess. In chess, we play to kill the enemy king. Why not to kill the market dragon? For me losing 1 cent is as painfull as losing a fortune. I learned when I found myself losing all my week game by playing forex during the News.

My dance is a killing dance. I tell you I never expected that finding myself losing 5 cents would be as painful a losing millions.

Losing is not a question. fti shows that we lose when we lose ourselves. We must be as vampires. You are right!
I agree luSan, loosing 5 cents is almost the same pain, as loosing $500, b/c it is still loosing, it's not the money you lost, you lost the battle, and we always should win. But the win is so sweet. Btw I like MicdD skew for attack and defence, I use almost the same.
Regards
Alex
  • #1,514
  • Feb 16, 2008 9:15am Feb 16, 2008 9:15am
Alexfot, I came to the same conclusion of MikeD. When I rescue I take the big guys first b/u with them the risk is too large. The enemy could come and break into our castle and rob our banks.

I could either bring the largest troop home togethr with the injured one or pump the book while waiting for a change in the wind direction that will bring everyone happily home.

I tell you, it is great using these metaphores to describe trading. After all, trading is a reflection of our personalities, right? Tradding is clearly a more subjective than mechanical activity. What does it say about those who create mechanical systems or bind themselves to rules and indicators?

Oh well...to each is own...

Last night I saw for the second time a movie, "king arthur" of Antoine Fuqua. It reminds me a lot of forex trading. I think I will see it again.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,515
  • Edited 5:46pm Feb 16, 2008 12:47pm | Edited 5:46pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
This sounds like war, only the arsenals seems political economics.
Its getting hairy, watch that GBP/EUR tear.

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/200801...-the-west.html

The question that strikes me is
Is this a branch of freemasonry?
http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/NWO..._Relations.htm
http://www.apfn.org/APFN/illuminati.htm

regards
Interesting read. Looks like the western order is trying to get China into its sphere of influence but I am doubtful China will fall for the trap? World power and influence is shifting east and I think it will serve China/India/Russia well to tread with caution. Sun Tzu's tactics may become useful!

On the third page/third paragraph of the Foreign Affairs article it states:

"State sovereignty and the rule of law are not just norms enshrined in the United Nations Charter. They are part of the deep operating logic of the order. To be sure, these norms are evolving, and the United States itself has historically been ambivalent about binding itself to international law and institutions -- and at no time more so than today."

I noticed the United Nations coming up a few time. I personally think it is a failing organisation and the so called Illuminatis use it only when it suits. If there is no agreement they simply ignore it. The invasion of Iraq is one example and you will see tomorrow (Sunday), the News headlines will show that not even the borders of a sovereign nation (UN member) are safe.

Illegal acts yes, but it seems laws do not apply to the CFR. Yes, China can potentially be a big threat to them and looks like it understands their game. This seems evident by the controlling of its currency (yuan) and holding lots of dollars ($1 trillion) - enough to protect its interests? We shall see!

Anyway, I finally got the John R Hill book "Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts". At first sight, I couldn't believe I paid US$85 (inc delivery) for a binding of 60 odd photocopied pages. I remember you stating your copy was in research format and I don't believe it has changed. There is possibly no book available but I suppose it's the content that counts. I think I will photocopy it and change the bars into coloured candles so I can read it better! It should help with memorising the patterns.
  • #1,516
  • Feb 17, 2008 7:12am Feb 17, 2008 7:12am
Anyway, I finally got the John R Hill book "Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts". At first sight, I couldn't believe I paid US$85 (inc delivery) for a binding of 60 odd photocopied pages. I remember you stating your copy was in research format and I don't believe it has changed. There is possibly no book available but I suppose it's the content that counts. I think I will photocopy it and change the bars into coloured candles so I can read it better! It should help with memorising the patterns. [/quote]



Hi Zoran,

Very quiet here. I still have no opportunity to trade.
Where I work at the moment has a filter which must think the trading platform is a porno site, so no chance to even sneak the odd trade.

I saw the "book" on Amazon at a similar price and thought IŽd wait and ask you what you make of it first - what do you reckon, is it worth obtaining?
Thanks and regards
HS
  • #1,517
  • Feb 17, 2008 11:58am Feb 17, 2008 11:58am
Quoting HapaSasa
Hi Zoran,

Very quiet here. I still have no opportunity to trade.
Where I work at the moment has a filter which must think the trading platform is a porno site, so no chance to even sneak the odd trade.

I saw the "book" on Amazon at a similar price and thought IŽd wait and ask you what you make of it first - what do you reckon, is it worth obtaining?
Thanks and regards
HS
fti recommended it so I expect it to be good but I haven't had the chance to read it yet. I'll let you know.

I've just caught up with the thread. One of the links fti posted was quite long. Not too sure about Fagan's conspiracy article. It is very detailed and some of it could be true, some of it I couldn't say (without verification) and some of it seems flawed. However, I have long held the belief there is some co-ordinated force in play dictating world/global affairs and I'm prepared to believe it is the Council of Foreign Relations with its siblings in other countries. Media manipulation is an obvious clue.

So what's the point fti? To demonstrate the markets are manipulated? Or should we all pool together with a plan to control the world!
  • #1,518
  • Feb 17, 2008 2:01pm Feb 17, 2008 2:01pm
Quoting Zoran
So what's the point fti? To demonstrate the markets are manipulated? Or should we all pool together with a plan to control the world!
My half cent... I think ALL markets are manipulated, to variable extents, no matter how "liquid" they are. To push prices you just have to put enough money in and out. Price manipulations are obvious (in my opinion) in spikes and stop hunting. Price manipulation is part of the game. Manipulators take risks too (there may be someone trying to push prices in the opposite direction!). I believe forex is no exception.
  • #1,519
  • Feb 17, 2008 3:21pm Feb 17, 2008 3:21pm
Jairo

Yes, I have no doubt whatsoever that markets are manipulated. However, could it be done to the extent of causing a depression? That's the conspiracy.

Perhaps it was possible once upon a time but I'm not sure anymore.
  • #1,520
  • Feb 17, 2008 5:58pm Feb 17, 2008 5:58pm
Quoting Zoran
Jairo

Yes, I have no doubt whatsoever that markets are manipulated. However, could it be done to the extent of causing a depression? That's the conspiracy.

Perhaps it was possible once upon a time but I'm not sure anymore.
Hi Zoran,

I believe no one is able to manipulate to that extent (causing a depression). Besides, this would probably not be interesting from a business point of view. This "depression" threat is (in my opinion) a simple consequence of insane risk taking. Sooner or later the party should be over. Then the late comers can only take the losses and cry...

Good trading.
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