Attachments: Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

#62,021
Feb 15, 2008 12:38pm Feb 15, 2008 12:38pm

arezab
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Counter Trend, but not always! | 2,147 Posts

I opened a long position around 210.70 but closed it around %50 ret. I see a bullish gartley on 1H chart but I think we will see more down first. Uptrend will resume for sure but I believe not from here although we have MA's confluence and support of 210.75 but I think the major retracement is not complete yet.

I expect to see 209.85 (%50 fib ret from 205.85 to 213.85) and if breached then 61.8 (208.90). I think between these two levels is the best place to load up for heavy long up to 217 and above.

So limit orders are in place vor heavy up ...
Cheers

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Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success

#62,022
Feb 15, 2008 12:41pm Feb 15, 2008 12:41pm

kujo17
| Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Wish I had more capital !! ;-) | 1,050 Posts

209 is my target for my shorts from 213, 212 and 211.

I'll load up my longs from there.

One thing we should ponder is, Options Expire on Saturday.
The Dow is closed on Monday, so Tuesday am there is the chance the Dow will tank.

In January when Options closed, it went down 300pts at Dow open.

Be mindful of this. It may not play out, but if it does, it could temporarily spoil our LONG party.

Have a great weekend all.

30m and 1H charts have very small candles..... things are slowing down.

#62,023
Feb 15, 2008 1:29pm Feb 15, 2008 1:29pm

fourxtrader
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: 'sleeping in a dumpster' | 2,151 Posts

[quote=kujo17;1854112]209 is my target for my shorts from 213, 212 and 211.

I'll load up my longs from there.

Time to broaden our perspectives.
We still have a 50% fib that needs
to be resolved down to ~199.71.

Dr. D.

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#62,024
Feb 15, 2008 1:45pm Feb 15, 2008 1:45pm

kujo17
| Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Wish I had more capital !! ;-) | 1,050 Posts

[quote=fourxtrader;1854153]

Quoting kujo17

Disliked

209 is my target for my shorts from 213, 212 and 211.

I'll load up my longs from there.

Time to broaden our perspectives.
We still have a 50% fib that needs
to be resolved down to ~199.71.

Dr. D.

Ignored

I think once we get up to 222-232 area, 188 will be the next frontier !!!

A 7 year retrace in the works.......

#62,025
Edited 2:20pm Feb 15, 2008 1:45pm | Edited 2:20pm

jarroo
Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts

Quoting mike w

Disliked

I cant deny the fact that there is a pin bar with a confirmation bar forming as today's close on the daily. That's big stuff. I may hold onto shorts for a little while longer as the higher timeframes show no justifications for a long JUST yet. I do think we will end up with longs in order, but probably after a little bit more downwards movement. I'd like to see price move down a bit further coming into this next week before we would see a gain in price.

Ignored

I agree. Price Action on the higher time frames (4 hour and up) shows me no signs of moving up. This is not to disqualify people who are going long, just my 2 cents.

Jim

Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.

#62,026
Feb 15, 2008 1:57pm Feb 15, 2008 1:57pm

forexnovice
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Seeking Light | 1,059 Posts

Quoting fourxtrader

Disliked

Time to broaden our perspectives.
We still have a 50% fib that needs
to be resolved down to ~199.71.

Dr. D.

Ignored

Aw shucks! That means my 50% fib will probably have to wait longer.

On the bright side though, welcome back to the Asylum Doc !

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#62,027
Feb 15, 2008 2:05pm Feb 15, 2008 2:05pm

vinesh2
Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,616 Posts

IMO this thing will hit 38% FIB before going down again in my chart 211.54 on 4hr. 211.54 was a really good support level before it came down. If you look at eh last few daily candles you will see what i am talking about

#62,028
Feb 15, 2008 2:07pm Feb 15, 2008 2:07pm

kujo17
| Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Wish I had more capital !! ;-) | 1,050 Posts

Just an observation, may mean Nada......

From HH at 213.85, first drop to LL was 196 pips.
Next move UP to new LH was 135 pips.
Next drop was 296 pips to new LL.
Next move up to Lower high was 155 pips.

So, should be guess a drop of 350+ pips plus could be in the works ?

to complete wave 5 of this move down/retrace, before our move up ?

Not really an EW guy, but just an observation.

#62,029
Edited 2:54pm Feb 15, 2008 2:07pm | Edited 2:54pm

jarroo
Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts

Quoting karmostaji

Disliked

Ok I've got longs open and it's friday, next week we should see 217+

I'm gonna enjoy my day and let you guys enjoy the roller coaster lol

Ignored

Karmo is known for his great analysis and when the Fibs start talking to him, we should all listen.

People should also realize that Karmo, whether he realizes it or not, knows the personality of this pair very well. The subtle nuances that are hard to articulate. And it helps to have a money management plan that can take on a large draw down (200-300 pips or more).

Jim

Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.

#62,030
Feb 15, 2008 2:37pm Feb 15, 2008 2:37pm

fourxtrader
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: 'sleeping in a dumpster' | 2,151 Posts

Quoting forexnovice

Disliked

Aw shucks! That means my 50% fib will probably have to wait longer.

On the bright side though, welcome back to the Asylum Doc !

Ignored

And if history should repeat itself, we should expect this to move
well past the 50% and 61.8% fibs retracements. It took 12+ months
to stretch beyond the 50% to achieve this prior bottom.

Holding a short position projection from this current 50% point @ ~199
similiarly might take 12 months but deliver an additional ~3700 pips.

An inheritance in the making.

Dr. D.

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#62,031
Feb 15, 2008 2:41pm Feb 15, 2008 2:41pm

mike w
Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts

Quoting jarroo

Disliked

Karmo is known for his great analysis and when the Fibs start talking to him, we should all listen.

People should also realize that Karmo, whether he realizes it or not, knows the personality of this pair very well. The subtle nuances that are hard to articulate. And it helps to have a money management plan that can take on large draw down (200-300 pips or more).

Jim

Ignored

Very much so Jim. This pair can move for and against 200 pips easily from your position. You, IMO, NEED to have a plan to allow for fairly large drawdowns if your trading higher timeframe charts, which allow for movement. In my opinion, towards the beginning of the week, we should see around 209. After that, I would look for PA to determine another upmove. If it doesn't, Im already in my shorts (too bad its winter). If it does, then I will close out and re-determine my next move- which will be up IMO.

I dream, therefore I become.

#62,032
Edited 3:23pm Feb 15, 2008 2:42pm | Edited 3:23pm

dagoods
Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts

Quoting forexnovice

Disliked

Aw shucks! That means my 50% fib will probably have to wait longer.

On the bright side though, welcome back to the Asylum Doc !

Ignored

hey fn very nice chart.....as fr a retraecment... i'm not sure but i think demark might look at it something like dis here.... with price being temporarily supported by the fib in whte..... which needs to break down before the big fall...

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#62,033
Feb 15, 2008 2:43pm Feb 15, 2008 2:43pm

mike w
Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts

Quoting fourxtrader

Disliked

And if history should repeat itself, we should expect this to move
well past the 50% and 61.8% fibs retracements. It took 12+ months
to stretch beyond the 50% to achieve this prior bottom.

Holding a short position projection from this current 50% point @ ~199
similiarly might take 12 months but deliver an additional ~3700 pips.

An inheritance in the making.

Dr. D.

Ignored

Hey Dr. D, I like the way your thinking. Honestly, in due time, I look to see even lower than that area. Low 190's will be here soon I think.

I dream, therefore I become.

#62,034
Feb 15, 2008 2:49pm Feb 15, 2008 2:49pm

jarroo
Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts

Quoting mike w

Disliked

Very much so Jim. This pair can move for and against 200 pips easily from your position. You, IMO, NEED to have a plan to allow for fairly large drawdowns if your trading higher timeframe charts, which allow for movement. In my opinion, towards the beginning of the week, we should see around 209. After that, I would look for PA to determine another upmove. If it doesn't, Im already in my shorts (too bad its winter). If it does, then I will close out and re-determine my next move- which will be up IMO.

Ignored

I'm getting there.

That's why the use of major S/R levels are critical to me. They allow me to reduce my risk.

Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.

#62,035
Feb 15, 2008 3:03pm Feb 15, 2008 3:03pm

forexnovice
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Seeking Light | 1,059 Posts

Quoting fourxtrader

Disliked

And if history should repeat itself, we should expect this to move
well past the 50% and 61.8% fibs retracements. It took 12+ months
to stretch beyond the 50% to achieve this prior bottom.

Holding a short position projection from this current 50% point @ ~199
similiarly might take 12 months but deliver an additional ~3700 pips.

An inheritance in the making.

Dr. D.

Ignored

Yeah, thats another thing to keep in "mind". Now to work on keeping the emotional devils at bay !

Come Monday morning I will initiate a short about which I can gloat later. Possibly for 3K pips. Hehe that might get us into 3KT club.

#62,036
Feb 15, 2008 3:22pm Feb 15, 2008 3:22pm

quecee5
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,510 Posts

Quoting forexnovice

Disliked

Yeah, thats another thing to keep in "mind". Now to work on keeping the emotional devils at bay !

Come Monday morning I will initiate a short about which I can gloat later. Possibly for 3K pips. Hehe that might get us into 3KT club.

Ignored

#62,037
Feb 15, 2008 3:25pm Feb 15, 2008 3:25pm

forexnovice
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Seeking Light | 1,059 Posts

Quoting dagoods

Disliked

hey fn very nice chart.....as fr a retraecment... i'm not sure but i think demark might look at it something like dis here....

Ignored

So many possibilities to consider before pulling the trigger.

Let time be our guide.

#62,038
Feb 15, 2008 3:31pm Feb 15, 2008 3:31pm

mike w
Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts

Quoting jarroo

Disliked

I'm getting there.

That's why the use of major S/R levels are critical to me. They allow me to reduce my risk.

Ignored

I agree. It's always good to get in at a good price when compared to a price 100 or so pips away. Whenever I see a trade, I always wait to see solid retracements based on the 5 sma and other reasonings before entering so that I get in at the best possible price. That's the difference between a 5,000$ trade and a 15,000$ trade or whatever amount.