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Daily95pips

  • #1,681
  • Feb 11, 2008 11:48pm Feb 11, 2008 11:48pm
Quoting Christancho
Hi,
If a place a position on 30SL and 15TP, that's a 2:1 profit ratio... I mean, if I loose just once... I have win twice in order to just break even. Too much effort to get 0 pips.

Christancho
Discussions are welcome. Hey, firstly, i hate to talk in mathematics. so just try to be plain. it's like this:

i think that this system, is a random luck system. using previous day's HH to buy, is not really indicating that we are following bull. neither is previous LL.

no matter what direction u go, and no matter what level u go from, it is a matter of random luck in long term. check those candles, two consecutive bearish candle, but u still can possibly win profit, if u buy from previous HH. it happens frequently.

we are not doing a trend following system, since this is a one-day trading system. if we talk about trend-following or contrarian, we may be joking.

now, why 15 TP with 30 SL is better than 30 TP with 30 SL, in my humble opinion, is because, generally, more than 50% likely, it is easier to reach 15 than 30. forget about directions, imagine u ask John and Tom, two random men, everyday, u command: run! John and Tom. Since John's task is 15 feet, and Tom's goal is 30 feet, after many many years, who won most by finishing his job earlier everyday? It should be John.

when consider profit/loss ratio, probability must be involved. we cannot say that 30 SL vs 15 TP is like 2:1 risk/return ratio. That's wrong, because we didn't consider probability.

Again, since i said price not moving in straightline, it is of coz frequently seen like eur/jpy profit in both ways.

thanks, i like discussions, please.
  • #1,682
  • Feb 12, 2008 2:57am Feb 12, 2008 2:57am
here are last weeks results and a grand total for those interested. back on the profit trail at last!!!
left column is e/j and right g/u
Attached Image
  • #1,683
  • Feb 12, 2008 4:41am Feb 12, 2008 4:41am
Hi folks.

I'm finally back with a new internet connection at my new place of residence.....I've not been trading D95P over the past 2 weeks as I've been moving house, and it's taken me that long to get the internet connection sorted.
I hope to resume sharing weekly results as of the end of this week.

Will keep you posted.

Mike
  • #1,684
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:01am Feb 12, 2008 7:01am
Quoting charvo
Dear David:
I think that it makes great senses by using a stoploss wider than TP, since this is a random luck system. bingo, u r my man.

Yeah truly,
dd u use it?, its doing pretty gud on most pairs, but i've closed bout 3 pairs on profit for 2day. no losses.
"bingo, u r my man" lol.

Sc.david
  • #1,685
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:48am Feb 12, 2008 9:48am
Quoting Sc.david
Yeah truly,
dd u use it?, its doing pretty gud on most pairs, but i've closed bout 3 pairs on profit for 2day. no losses.
"bingo, u r my man" lol.

Sc.david
David, are you entering your pending orders just before the Asian session? I mean, you still use the high and low of the 17 hours before 5pm East/10pm GMT (from 5am to 10pm GMT)?

Thanks

Middleastern
  • #1,686
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:05am Feb 12, 2008 10:05am
Quoting Middleastern
David, are you entering your pending orders just before the Asian session? I mean, you still use the high and low of the 17 hours before 5pm East/10pm GMT (from 5am to 10pm GMT)?

Thanks

Middleastern
Just my 2 cents, i also expect David to comment on this.

My 2 cents is that 5 pm US est, is not a good time to enter, why? simply because many traders are still on market pushing waves.

Then when is a better time? better time is after 6pm or 7pm.
I am sure both 6 or 7 pm (us est) are less volatile than 5 pm. But I am not sure which one is better, i choose 7 in winter, because asian ppl still in bed then.
  • #1,687
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:51am Feb 12, 2008 10:51am
Quoting Middleastern
David, are you entering your pending orders just before the Asian session? I mean, you still use the high and low of the 17 hours before 5pm East/10pm GMT (from 5am to 10pm GMT)?

Thanks

Middleastern

Actually i place my trades between 5am - 6am GMT
and my pending orders with expiry 22:00pm GMT

Well not end of day yet, i've so far got +58

Sc.david
  • #1,688
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:10am Feb 12, 2008 11:10am
I'll post my report for 2day and 2moro, on thursday.
  • #1,689
  • Feb 12, 2008 12:26pm Feb 12, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting Sc.david
Actually i place my trades between 5am - 6am GMT
and my pending orders with expiry 22:00pm GMT

Well not end of day yet, i've so far got +58

Sc.david
So you take your high and low from 17-hour period before GMT 05am?

I'm asking you in order to do some backtesting on your approach and be able to compare my results with yours. We must be in sync if we want to be able to compare them. Tell me if you are using a different way to pick up your highs and lows.

Thanks.

Middleastern
  • #1,690
  • Edited Feb 13, 2008 9:00am Feb 12, 2008 2:11pm | Edited Feb 13, 2008 9:00am
Quoting TomTrader
Naranjoe, bennyFX, and Middleastern.

Maybe it would help if we were all on the same page.

Do you agree that normally 1 lot = $100,000 and .1 lot = $10,000? Now I know that this will vary when 1 pip does not equal some power of 10 (1, 10, 100...) but my suggestion for lot size is simply the first (nearby) trade be weighted heaver than the second, and the second heaver than the third. By how much is a personal choice, but if I am betting (and we are gambling here) then I am going to bet heaver on a setup that has a higher probability of winning.

If you really want to dazzle me, sit down and figure out the statistical probabilities each trade has of winning. My guess, and it is only a guess, is that you will find that the first trade's probability of winning is greater than twice the second, and the second is greater than twice the third.

Ok, help me out here and give your input.

Tom Trader
Hello Tom,
Well, I did some manual testing with Naranjoe's settings for GBP/JPY, with one addition. I tested from January 2 to Feb 12, placing the orders at midnight GMT. I checked which trades were triggered, and which TP's were hit, adding another smaller one (25, 40, 80 and 110 pips). Here it is:

Total days tested: 28 (25 + 3 no-touch days. I am considering n=25)
...............n....... %
TP=25: ....20..... 80
TP=40: ....14 .....56
TP=80: ....12 .....48 (one trade ended the day at -35)
TP=110:.... 9 .... 36 (two trades ended the day at +50 and -35)

Broker was Alpari. Those of you forward testing these settings are welcome to share your results. Timing, I found out, has a lot to do with these numbers. If any of you have better results with a different ordering time, let me know and I'll check that out. Some trades were just at the high or low point at midnight GMT, and that's why they "got triggered" immediately.

Will be waiting for your feedback. Regards

Middleastern
  • #1,691
  • Feb 13, 2008 12:16am Feb 13, 2008 12:16am
Quoting Middleastern
So you take your high and low from 17-hour period before GMT 05am?

I'm asking you in order to do some backtesting on your approach and be able to compare my results with yours. We must be in sync if we want to be able to compare them. Tell me if you are using a different way to pick up your highs and lows.

Thanks.

Middleastern

Good,
as i told you b4, i place my trades b/w 5-6 am GMT, i take my entries like this
Buy: Previous days high + 5pips
Sell: Previous days Low - 5pips

TP = 15 pips
SL = 30 pips

SL for GBPJPY = 40 pips
TP for GBPJPY = 20 pips
  • #1,692
  • Feb 13, 2008 6:13am Feb 13, 2008 6:13am
Middleastern and everyone,

Have been trading using the most recent high +5 and most recent low -5 for entry. That is, I look backward on a 1hour chart from midnight GMT (5:00pm EST) for the last high point and the last low point, then use them to base the entries on, even if those points happened in the last hour or two.

Also have found that the AUDUSD pair works quite well, better than the EURUSD pair.

Good luck to all,

TomTrader
  • #1,693
  • Feb 13, 2008 6:40am Feb 13, 2008 6:40am
Great men, well 2day i got bad hit,
Price hit SL and returned back, dunno y i got that hit, what do u think
middleeastern?
  • #1,694
  • Feb 13, 2008 7:20am Feb 13, 2008 7:20am
Quoting Middleastern
Hello Tom,
Well, I did some manual testing with Naranjoe's settings for GBP/JPY, with one addition. I tested from January 2 to Feb 12, placing the orders at midnight GMT. I checked which trades were triggered, and which TP's were hit, adding another smaller one (25, 40, 80 and 110 pips). Here it is:

Total days tested: 28 (25 + 3 no-touch days. I am considering n=25)
...............n....... %
TP=25: ....20..... 80
TP=40: ....14 .....56
TP=80: ....12 .....48 (one trade ended the day at -35)
TP=110:.... 9 .... 36 (two trades ended the day at +50 and -35)

Broker was Alpari. Those of you forward testing these settings are welcomed to share your results. Timing, I found out, has a lot to do with these numbers. If any of you have better results with a different ordering time, let me know and I'll check that out. Some trades were just at the high or low point at midnight GMT, and that's why they "got triggered" immediately.

Will be waiting for your feedback. Regards

Middleastern
Dear Middleastern

You may have hit the jackpot here. Based upon your data on the GBP/JPY pair, you say you are hitting the TP=25 approximately 80% of the time. If you have a system that has an 80% win/loss ratio then you have a real money maker.

Where do you have your stop loss set at? If it is at 25, then your score should look something like this:

2 losses @ 25 pips = 50 pip loss
8 wins @ 25 pips = 400 pip wins
-------------------------------------
Net gain = 350 pips (GREAT!!!)

thanks,

TomTrader
  • #1,695
  • Edited 8:57am Feb 13, 2008 8:22am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting TomTrader
Dear Middleastern

You may have hit the jackpot here. Based upon your data on the GBP/JPY pair, you say you are hitting the TP=25 approximately 80% of the time. If you have a system that has an 80% win/loss ratio then you have a real money maker.

Where do you have your stop loss set at? If it is at 25, then your score should look something like this:

2 losses @ 25 pips = 50 pip loss
8 wins @ 25 pips = 400 pip wins
-------------------------------------
Net gain = 350 pips (GREAT!!!)

thanks,

TomTrader
Hi Tom,
SL was as Naranjoe's settings = 60 pips. As you see, the risk/reward ratio is 60:25, which is not the best, but if the win/lose ratio is around 80%, I guess it is compensated.

HOWEVER, I just tested it on 28 days, which is in no way whatsoever a significant sample, statistically speaking. I'll check the previous months on GBP/JPY, and as soon as I have some results I'll post them.
It would be great if someone could do the same with another pair, to have a more robust base.

Another thing to have in mind is that betting only on the smaller TP's will keep us out of the big rides. There is a trade off here, higher win/lose ratios in exchange of the big trends. We will always be able to put bigger lot sizes to overcome this, provided that the win/lose ratio consistenly stays at those levels, what has yet to be proved...

Regards

Middleastern
  • #1,696
  • Feb 13, 2008 9:05am Feb 13, 2008 9:05am
Quoting Sc.david
Great men, well 2day i got bad hit,
Price hit SL and returned back, dunno y i got that hit, what do u think
middleeastern?
Shit happens... A small TP is no guarantee it will be hit. Sometimes 1 single pip makes all the difference...



Middleastern
  • #1,697
  • Feb 13, 2008 5:41pm Feb 13, 2008 5:41pm
Quoting Middleastern
Hi Tom,
SL was as Naranjoe's settings = 60 pips. As you see, the risk/reward ratio is 60:25, which is not the best, but if the win/lose ratio is around 80%, I guess it is compensated.

HOWEVER, I just tested it on 28 days, which is in no way whatsoever a significant sample, statistically speaking. I'll check the previous months on GBP/JPY, and as soon as I have some results I'll post them.
It would be great if someone could do the same with another pair, to have a more robust base.

Another thing to have in mind is that betting only on the smaller TP's will keep us out of the big rides. There is a trade off here, higher win/lose ratios in exchange of the big trends. We will always be able to put bigger lot sizes to overcome this, provided that the win/lose ratio consistenly stays at those levels, what has yet to be proved...

Regards

Middleastern
Hi Middleastern,

Am running forward (paper traded) testing on the AOD/USD and USD/JPY pairs, using a ST=25, TP=25 strategy. I think you're right, a higher win/loss ratio is preferable to big runs that may never hit their take profit targets.

Given a 80% win ratio, you can build on lot sizes like you say and keep on sustaining winning trades.

BTW, I made an earlier suggestion to use the most recent high & low as the entry levels (+-5), but now I am not so sure that was a good idea. Since then I have went back to the high&low of the last 17 hours.

Let me know what your testing tells you,

thanks

Tom
  • #1,698
  • Feb 15, 2008 9:52am Feb 15, 2008 9:52am
Results of GBP/JPY for week ending friday 15 february 2008 with my settings 40-80-110 pips
and Update to BreakEven 80 pips.

Monday 11 February 230 PIPS
Tuesday 12 February -180 PIPS
Wednesday 13 February 230 PIPS
Thursday 14 February 120 PIPS
Friday 15 February -180 PIPS

Total 220 PIPS

Back on the road of pips

From next week i will change the timeframe for trading with gbp/jpy.
I will set my orders at 2am GMT to avoid some bad trades (like today).
The LookBackHours should remain the same.

I have backtested my results with the new timeframe and i think there are more pips to make.
For example, this week I would get 730 pips.

Of course, not all the weeks have better profits, but I think this timeframe is better over a long period.

Naranjoe
  • #1,699
  • Feb 15, 2008 11:23am Feb 15, 2008 11:23am
Very nice week for me also, almost all days were profitable (except for GBP/USD)

Im using the original Daily95 settings with the exception of GBP/JPY where I use Naranjoe's. I dont use any EA, I modify all my trades and SL manually

Trades are placed the day before between 9 and 10 PM EST

Results for GBP/JPY: 630 PIPS

11 February: 230 PIPS
12 February: -180 PIPS
13 February: 230 PIPS
14 February: 120 PIPS
15 February: 230 PIPS


Results for EUR/USD: 120 PIPS

11 February: 15 PIPS
12 February: 45 PIPS
13 February: nt
14 February: 15 PIPS
15 February: 45 PIPS


Results for GBP/USD: -220 PIPS

11 February: -90 PIPS
12 February: -45 PIPS
13 February: -90 PIPS
14 February: 95 PIPS
15 February: -90 PIPS



Results for EUR/JPY: 55 PIPS

11 February: -90 PIPS
12 February: 95 PIPS
13 February: -90 PIPS
14 February: 95 PIPS
15 February: 45 PIPS


Results for EUR/GBP: 130 PIPS

11 February: 45 PIPS
12 February: nt
13 February: 0 PIPS
14 February: 0 PIPS
15 February: 85 PIPS


Total for all five pairs: 715 PIPS

Regards,

Arkpip
  • #1,700
  • Edited 2:16pm Feb 15, 2008 12:58pm | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting naranjoe

From next week i will change the timeframe for trading with gbp/jpy.
I will set my orders at 2am GMT to avoid some bad trades (like today).
The LookBackHours should remain the same.
Very interesting Naranjoe indeed Is there a particular reason why 2 GMT?

One question to make sure I got this correct: the lookback will be 4 hours longer, i.e. 05 GMT - 02 GMT right?

Keep it up and keep making pips
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