Trend Fans | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Any Bollinger Band Fans? 68 replies

Questions on fib arcs, fans, and time series and confluence 0 replies

Attachments: Trend Fans
Exit Attachments

Trend Fans

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 12, 2008 8:17pm Feb 12, 2008 8:17pm
Hello to all who have bought twoblink's 2nd ebook on trendfans.
After i had read the book, i am confused on how to trade the trendfans.
Any ideas are welcome.
  • #2
  • Feb 15, 2008 2:31am Feb 15, 2008 2:31am
I'm in Vietnam right now.. so I have fairly limited internet access, but what is it that you are confused about?
google:
  • #3
  • Feb 15, 2008 2:46am Feb 15, 2008 2:46am
Hey twoblink welcome back from the ban
Just Trade It
  • #4
  • Feb 15, 2008 6:42am Feb 15, 2008 6:42am
Quoting twoblink
I'm in Vietnam right now.. so I have fairly limited internet access, but what is it that you are confused about?
Is the trend fan just for determining natural S/R? How to use it as entry and pyramid points?
  • #5
  • Feb 16, 2008 7:14am Feb 16, 2008 7:14am
Again, I'm popping my head in for a sec as the guy standing over me is gonna kick me off the comp in a few seconds.

The trendfans create natural "points of interest", think of it like a national park, there will be a lot of "points of interest" that prices congregate around; if they are broken, then you assume either a trend break or a trend confirmation.. At that point, reentry (pyramiding) or exiting or partial exiting would be prudent..

As far as the ban.. Yeah, I see people advertise their stuff in their signatures all the time, everybody is created equal, but I guess some are more equal than others...
google:
  • #6
  • Edited Feb 18, 2008 7:21am Feb 17, 2008 8:51pm | Edited Feb 18, 2008 7:21am
Quoting twoblink
Again, I'm popping my head in for a sec as the guy standing over me is gonna kick me off the comp in a few seconds.

The trendfans create natural "points of interest", think of it like a national park, there will be a lot of "points of interest" that prices congregate around; if they are broken, then you assume either a trend break or a trend confirmation.. At that point, reentry (pyramiding) or exiting or partial exiting would be prudent..

As far as the ban.. Yeah, I see people advertise their stuff in their signatures all the time, everybody is created equal, but I guess some are more equal than others...
I have been trying to apply trend fan to historical data... Lets say the breakpoints and trend fan points created 5 levels which level 1 being the highest.

The price may go down from level 1 to level 2, thus creating a sell entry with stop loss at level 1. The price may continue to go further down to level 3 at which this time i presume that the stop level should move to level 2.

But there are many times that the price would then move back up to level 2 before moving sideways or further down to level 4. How do i prevent from being stopped out? Or should i be stopped out and re-enter when the price break level 3 again?

In other words... how do we choose the initial S/L level and when to move the S/L level?

Hope my question is not confusing.... It would be great if you could post an example on how to correctly trade the trend fan, either on the forum or privately. Thanks
  • #7
  • Feb 19, 2008 10:41pm Feb 19, 2008 10:41pm
You are correct and that's what I do as well..

If the price breaches level 1, and I entered..

then it breaches level 2, and I've moved my stop to level 1..

If it breached (the other way) level 1, then my "assumptions" about the trend direction was incorrect...

Since we have no actual chart to refer to, is the breaching and thus SL'ing of my level 1, a signal to go in the other direction, or just that my earlier assumption was incorrect?

Remember, Incorrect buy does not a correct sell make. (read that a few times..)

The notion that the buy signal was wrong, does NOT provide you with a sell signal!

Remember, there are 3 ways a market moves:

Up
Down
Sideways
and the theoretical 4th direction of rollercoaster no-direction.

If up is wrong, it doesn't mean down. If down is wrong, it doesn't mean up.

does that answer some of your questions?
google:
  • #8
  • Edited 1:27am Feb 20, 2008 1:08am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting twoblink
You are correct and that's what I do as well..

If the price breaches level 1, and I entered..

then it breaches level 2, and I've moved my stop to level 1..

If it breached (the other way) level 1, then my "assumptions" about the trend direction was incorrect...

Since we have no actual chart to refer to, is the breaching and thus SL'ing of my level 1, a signal to go in the other direction, or just that my earlier assumption was incorrect?

Remember, Incorrect buy does not a correct sell make. (read that a few times..)

The notion that the buy signal was wrong, does NOT provide you with a sell signal!

Remember, there are 3 ways a market moves:

Up
Down
Sideways
and the theoretical 4th direction of rollercoaster no-direction.

If up is wrong, it doesn't mean down. If down is wrong, it doesn't mean up.

does that answer some of your questions?
yes you have cleared up quite a lot of questions... but i have just one last question...

1. how would you handle a switch in the direction of the trendfan? supposed you are selling based on a up trendfan and the price drops far enough to form a new low, thus forming a new down trendfan, should i close out on all the existing open short positions?
  • #9
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:58am Feb 20, 2008 1:58am
Quote
The notion that the buy signal was wrong, does NOT provide you with a sell signal!

Very good advice. There's a thread elsewhere here that says "a failed buy signal is a sell signal" ... when in reality, it's not.
  • #10
  • Feb 20, 2008 5:58am Feb 20, 2008 5:58am
Quote
how would you handle a switch in the direction of the trendfan? supposed you are selling based on a up trendfan and the price drops far enough to form a new low, thus forming a new down trendfan, should i close out on all the existing open short positions?

Well, that's 2 questions, how would I vs how should you..

two different questions..

If I have a signal that says my trend has ended, then I exit EVERYTHING.

The quote goes:

"The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.."

How you should proceed.. why that's up to you!!
google:
  • #11
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:48am Feb 20, 2008 10:48am
Hi Two Blink

Do you have an ETA when your third book will be released.

thanks
  • #12
  • Feb 24, 2008 2:35am Feb 24, 2008 2:35am
Ok,
I am posting a recent example of s/r using trendfans´ what I call anchorpoints, ie the daisy chain joint point...if you get that. I forget what twoblink calls them but he SHOULD be calling them anchorpoints (hehe) On eurusd this last (uppermost) anchorpoint (coming in around 1.4793) support has held strong so far, so you would have been able to buy there with a stop just below...here comes the chart...arrows point to anchorpoint supports formed. Ok twoblink come on and have a go at me hehe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 24 KB
Never say never.
  • #13
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:39pm Feb 24, 2008 9:39pm
Rishi,

My 3rd book for Forex is placed after my Sales book. So no ETA, as I don't even have an ETA for my sales book.. it's a monstrous book, and growing..

I teach Sales and Marketing, as well as Forex here in Taiwan..

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

That said, So of the chart posted, the real line I'm interested in, I've marked in Orange..

This looks to be the most stable of the trendlines. Why this one and not the two below it? Well, because it's the first "big" line that would indicate the longer term trend, instead of the short term trend, which is not so stable anyways from the look of the trendlines. I've marked the shorter term trend in red circle. The fans aren't smooth, they don't progress smoothly, and the attack angle is really aggressive, which is difficult to maintain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur2.gif Size: 27 KB
google:
  • #14
  • Last Post: Feb 24, 2008 11:45pm Feb 24, 2008 11:45pm
Hi Twoblink

Since the trendlines are determined by the zoomness of the charts, what is your preferred numbers of bars to look at?
0 traders viewing now