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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #61,841
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:18pm Feb 14, 2008 3:18pm
Quoting mike w
Confiming bar, here we come!

Alritey ladies and gents, Im out for a while. I got a hot date tonight! lol
Best of luck to everybody in your trades.
Have a good time Mike, and thanks for all the advise.
  • #61,842
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:18pm Feb 14, 2008 3:18pm
Quoting ovaforty
My longs tp'ed earlier and I am waiting for a retrace down to reload longs to 216 at least. I have one small short at 213.38 area with a target to the daily 5 sma high area.
my small long got stopped out. Still holding one short from 213.38.
  • #61,843
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:19pm Feb 14, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting mike w
Hey Arezab, I cant fully answer that as it very well could (you know how this thing fluctuates), but through the use of my system, we got up to 90 something, which created the 38.2 retrace of that last move down from the top. WIth that, I think we will end up with a pin bar going against support at the close of this hour. If that happens and that small support breaks (which it probably will), then I wouldnt look to see those levels again. Anything's possible though, especially with how g/j moves.
Mike thank you. You are right. This thing moves like crazy and it's just possible. I'm sure you are not fond of looking to the market at such a close and small field of view, like small retracements for 40 pips or so. What I said was from a fib tool drawn in 5M for the last movement down. I agree that higher TF's have more weight and highly reliable.

I said it because I see a similar situation for the pin bar which closed 25th last month (as in my chart). After that pin bar, although we had a move down which was almost 220 points but it returned back up and even the next two candles closed 200 points above pin bar's close. I thought we might see such a thing again. That was my thoughts ...

Though let's wait and see what happens ...

I appreciate your reply.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: last pin.gif Size: 12 KB
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #61,844
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:20pm Feb 14, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting mike w
Now with that hourly pin, for a conservative play of adding to the positions, you would wait for a confirming candlestick (confirming candlesticks are candlesticks where price closes lower than the previous bar), and then you could probably add to your shorts or create short orders at that point. Low risk, high reward trade. For the love of everything good, dont trade that because some dummy in here said it. Trade it if YOU see it in your charts. If you see no justification for a position, trust yourself with your trades. You'll end up much better in the long run because of that.

unless its Karmo. do everything he says. lol he'll make you rich beyond belief if you were to study his tactics and style of trading.
Don't believe this man! lol, no matter who says what, always trade what YOU see on your chart because even people like karmo do make mistakes and lose. Nobody is perfect
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #61,845
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:21pm Feb 14, 2008 3:21pm
Quoting JasonGuillen
(I didn't wait.) short 212.69. Don't tell Jaroo I didn't wait though. He'll never know.....
Careful, my friend. Gotta wait for the close.

Now, the Pin Bar on the 4 hour did close and would be a great short entry. I can't post (or trade) now. Not at my home computer.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,846
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:22pm Feb 14, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting karmostaji
Don't believe this man! lol, no matter who says what, always trade what YOU see on your chart because even people like karmo do make mistakes and lose. Nobody is perfect
lol, ok, my bad! haha
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #61,847
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:26pm Feb 14, 2008 3:26pm
I'd like to point out that the current short-term trend has changed from downtrend to uptrend so I'm gonna buy dips but before that I have shorts open for this retracement and gonna close @ 50% fibo and then load up longs.

We have a daily candle back above the Gann hilo and QQE is crossed up, so please don't lose money thinking we'll see low 200's in the coming weeks lol

Good luck everyone
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #61,848
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:27pm Feb 14, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting mike w
Now with that hourly pin, for a conservative play of adding to the positions, you would wait for a confirming candlestick (confirming candlesticks are candlesticks where price closes lower than the previous bar), and then you could probably add to your shorts or create short orders at that point. Low risk, high reward trade. For the love of everything good, dont trade that because some dummy in here said it. Trade it if YOU see it in your charts. If you see no justification for a position, trust yourself with your trades. You'll end up much better in the long run because of that.

unless its Karmo. do everything he says. lol he'll make you rich beyond belief if you were to study his tactics and style of trading.
Amen.

Especially the Karmo part .

Seriously though, develop your own stlye and practise, practise, practise.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,849
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:30pm Feb 14, 2008 3:30pm
Price is sitting on my 4 hour 5 sma low at the 212.51 area.
  • #61,850
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:34pm Feb 14, 2008 3:34pm
Quoting karmostaji
I'd like to point out that the current short-term trend has changed from downtrend to uptrend so I'm gonna buy dips but before that I have shorts open for this retracement and gonna close @ 50% fibo and then load up longs.

We have a daily candle back above the Gann hilo and QQE is crossed up, so please don't lose money thinking we'll see low 200's in the coming weeks lol

Good luck everyone
Thanks for pointing that out Karmo. Hope we don't need a lot of pills when price reach that level and go for long, LOL.
  • #61,851
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:37pm Feb 14, 2008 3:37pm
Quoting karmostaji
I'd like to point out that the current short-term trend has changed from downtrend to uptrend so I'm gonna buy dips but before that I have shorts open for this retracement and gonna close @ 50% fibo and then load up longs.

We have a daily candle back above the Gann hilo and QQE is crossed up, so please don't lose money thinking we'll see low 200's in the coming weeks lol

Good luck everyone

Ok, Im back again. This statement is very true. Folks, check out the weekly bar as well. IMO, last week was an indecisive doji and throughout the week we touched a bottom in the 208's a couple of times but could not break it. With the rejection of price and the weekly bar closing as indecisive, that would give terms over to longs. Coming weeks are probably going to bring that retracement and then a big ol range period before perhaps another drop in price. Who knows. I'm going to the fortune teller. Hopeefully he'll tell me I will have good fortune lol
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #61,852
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:37pm Feb 14, 2008 3:37pm
Weekly moms are still bullish looking. Price was rejected at the 200 sma (red color) and weekly 5 sma high (white color).

Weekly 5 sma is sitting around the 210.40/60 area (yellow colors)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weeklygeppy2.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #61,853
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:44pm Feb 14, 2008 3:44pm
Quoting arezab
I said it because I see a similar situation for the pin bar which closed 25th last month (as in my chart). After that pin bar, although we had a move down which was almost 220 points but it returned back up and even the next two candles closed 200 points above pin bar's close. I thought we might see such a thing again. That was my thoughts ...

Though let's wait and see what happens ...

I appreciate your reply.
Your right on all things there Arezab. First things first, lower timeframes are mostly for suckers who give their money away. Its too unpredictable on lower timeframes because of fluctuations in price. If your trading lower timeframes with a tight stop loss, forget about it.
You really should start looking to higher timeframes. It pays off more so in the end, plus it is nowhere near as stressful with the correct usage of money management (just like any trade posted, you have to use correct money management for it).

As for your thoughts on that happening. I agree entirely. I think we will see, as everyone is saying, that 50% retracement of this last move up (which I have around 210.30). After that, I look to see price break out of this little range to the upside, probably as weekly buyers come into play, and then get the retracement of the last large move down, which is around 217.

For the right now, thought, look to the daily and concentrate on only one thing- making it a good trade for you. Plan out a good exit strategy and then "confirm the kill", then it's just money in the bank.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #61,854
  • Feb 14, 2008 4:14pm Feb 14, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting jarroo
Now, the Pin Bar on the 4 hour did close and would be a great short entry. I can't post (or trade) now. Not at my home computer.

Jim
Wow, looking at that 4 hour Pin Bar and prior indecision candle (spinning top) at a strong S/R level (213.60). It doesn't get any easier then this, my brothers.

And I'm missing it . Oh well, there will be plenty more to come.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,855
  • Feb 14, 2008 4:19pm Feb 14, 2008 4:19pm
hey, when do we know about the rate anoncement jpy?...
its just money
  • #61,856
  • Feb 14, 2008 4:39pm Feb 14, 2008 4:39pm
Gotta admit...little worried about that me-self.

Although, if it made the pair MORE bearish....
  • #61,857
  • Feb 14, 2008 4:45pm Feb 14, 2008 4:45pm
what retrace... it would have to fall below 211.90 to make me believe that. i didn't see that yet.
now let's see what happens during asia ession. if there is going to be a retrace, it must be now.

Quoting karmostaji
Everything is so clear and everyone is in their own world lol, the retrace is on since earlier, check my earlier posts.

Keep it simple and have some patience.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #61,858
  • Feb 14, 2008 4:45pm Feb 14, 2008 4:45pm
Hi all. Just to add here, we actually have a very nice daily Pin Bar now, so should see that retrace to 50% of last up move (so I hope at least...)


Quoting jarroo
Wow, looking at that 4 hour Pin Bar and prior indecision candle (spinning top) at a strong S/R level (213.60). It doesn't get any easier then this, my brothers.

Jim
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #61,859
  • Feb 14, 2008 4:51pm Feb 14, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting JasonGuillen
Gotta admit...little worried about that me-self.

Although, if it made the pair MORE bearish....
seriously considering in option to trade weekly charts,..but after recalculating i would have to win 180 pips + for profits to show.......but looking at can/jpy, at geppy i would have to win 240 + for profit....totally demotivated...blah i might only if it drops for another 100 pips...otherwise,..no weekly chart for me, the bigest dailly...ciao guys i go to bad, have fun...
its just money
  • #61,860
  • Feb 14, 2008 5:04pm Feb 14, 2008 5:04pm
I am in this one a little bigger 5% of my account :0

This is one of those times I need to go out with my honey and relax and check on my trade in the morning!!

Anyone concerned about the news coming out of Japan?

BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks and Interest rate
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