US Retail Sales (Jan 12 2007) | Forex Factory

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US Retail Sales (Jan 12 2007)

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 11, 2007 9:31am Jan 11, 2007 9:31am
Retail Sales for November was very USD Positive. All thanks to the Black Friday Super Sales.

If I am not mistaken, Holiday Sales last December was said to be bigger, longer and better than Black Friday. Expect Retail Sales for December to be far better than November in terms of Dollar amount - but not necessarily in Percentage increase over the previous month.

November was 1.1% Better than October.
Estimate for December Retail Sales is 0.5% better than November's.
over at CNBC and Bloomberg TV, I learned that "Consumer Electronics" (such as LCD TVs) were big winners last December due in part to discount. Consumer Electronics are expensive high end items compared to kids' toys.

Signs point to a bigger Retail Sales figure than estimates just my guess.
  • #2
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:00pm Jan 11, 2007 4:00pm
Something to add:

Oil continued to drop. I wonder if there was a significant drop from Nov's price to Dec's price. But energy utilization should still be higher on account that one need heating during winter (even if winter was not that too cold).

USD Index and Yield are up. And a good Retail Sales number should support USD strongly.
  • #3
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:12pm Jan 11, 2007 4:12pm
Not that I follow them too closley, but I believe the December holiday sales were not that great. I recall numerous warnings out of retailers in the US sighting heavy price discounting. Just something to consider...
  • #4
  • Jan 11, 2007 5:12pm Jan 11, 2007 5:12pm
The "Discount", Year end Bonuses + the holiday spirit are the Driving Forces for huge sales.

It was reported over at CNBC and Bloomberg TV that Stores were kept open longer to accomodate the customers. While I was on vacation for the better part of December, I still manage to watch these channels for News.

I am fairly convinced that that Sales Figures is Huge better than November's. But this does not imply December's Sales would result higher Percentage Improvement compared to Nov to Oct 1.1% improvement.

Nov from Oct sales was 1.1% due mainly because Oct was really down. Its easy to be up from a slump.
  • #5
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:21pm Jan 11, 2007 7:21pm
I hear you brother, and you make a great case. I'm just pointing out that the US retailers are all publicly traded companies. Many of them have come out over the last 2 weeks and revised guadance for Q4 earnings lower. They wouldn't have done that if sales were booming over the holidays. You should also remember that there is a seasonal adjustment to the series which is going to factor out the year end bonuses + holiday spirit buying.

Who really knows though. The datapoints are all pretty much bullshit numbers anyway...


Quoting BurgerKing
The "Discount", Year end Bonuses + the holiday spirit are the Driving Forces for huge sales.

It was reported over at CNBC and Bloomberg TV that Stores were kept open longer to accomodate the customers. While I was on vacation for the better part of December, I still manage to watch these channels for News.

I am fairly convinced that that Sales Figures is Huge better than November's. But this does not imply December's Sales would result higher Percentage Improvement compared to Nov to Oct 1.1% improvement.

Nov from Oct sales was 1.1% due mainly because Oct was really down. Its easy to be up from a slump.
  • #6
  • Jan 11, 2007 9:45pm Jan 11, 2007 9:45pm
Will this be a good report to straddle?
  • #7
  • Jan 11, 2007 10:12pm Jan 11, 2007 10:12pm

a very fast thread indeed....
did tuesday's consumer credit index reflect something??

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #8
  • Jan 12, 2007 2:48am Jan 12, 2007 2:48am
Quoting Darkstar
... I'm just pointing out that the US retailers are all publicly traded companies. .....
Bingo! this is indeed true.
  • #9
  • Jan 12, 2007 5:44am Jan 12, 2007 5:44am
How many pips expecting for US retail sales. Any idea?
  • #10
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:06am Jan 12, 2007 7:06am
Quoting wauyu
How many pips expecting for US retail sales. Any idea?
100+
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #11
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:12am Jan 12, 2007 7:12am
i think it will be good for the doallr. one thing about americans we like the biggest most exspensive thing we can buy. not to mention we like to spoil our kids and give them everything. nothing wrong with that its just how we are. but i believe that this will be good announcement for the dollar.
  • #12
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:19am Jan 12, 2007 7:19am
This is what DarkStar is talking about:

Quote
- Regarding the Retail Sales data, the WSJ wrote that today's report could paint a dismal picture of sales over the holiday period. The Journal says that one reason Nov. sales was strong may have been that Thanksgiving came earlier, causing more sales to be pushed into Nov. And if they were pushed into Nov., they probably were pulled from Dec.


@Moe
What is your system telling you?
  • #13
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:21am Jan 12, 2007 7:21am
Quoting Moe
100+
Good to see ya back Moe. How's Currenex working for you??
Therefore what??
  • #14
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:27am Jan 12, 2007 7:27am
Quoting BurgerKing
This is what DarkStar is talking about:




@Moe
What is your system telling you?
nothing, i won't be trading this one boe intrest rate hike screw my system up so no trading this week, just part of my system.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #15
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:28am Jan 12, 2007 7:28am
Quoting MichaelFX
Good to see ya back Moe. How's Currenex working for you??
thanks. did not sign up with currenex yet looking at other options.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #16
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:29am Jan 12, 2007 7:29am
Quoting Darkstar
I'm just pointing out that the US retailers are all publicly traded companies. Many of them have come out over the last 2 weeks and revised guadance for Q4 earnings lower. They wouldn't have done that if sales were booming over the holidays.
good point dark! im surprised the concensus on the core sales is so high after the ungly predictions we got out of the stock market. but the dollar seems to be gaining strength easy than it loses it, so it kinda makes this report hard to read.
Relax and be happy.
  • #17
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:30am Jan 12, 2007 7:30am
Quoting Moe
thanks. did not sign up with currenex yet looking at other options.
I'd be glad to hear your review when you find a platfor you like.
Therefore what??
  • #18
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:32am Jan 12, 2007 7:32am
looking like a buy
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #19
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:39am Jan 12, 2007 7:39am
whipsaw due to revision.

screwed one of my account while the other made some.
  • #20
  • Jan 12, 2007 7:39am Jan 12, 2007 7:39am
blowout report! prior Retail Sales Less Autos revised to 0.7% from 1.1%!

dollar looks like a buy here, not sure what all this current business is about.
Relax and be happy.
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