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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,441
  • Edited Feb 13, 2008 12:24am Feb 12, 2008 9:34am | Edited Feb 13, 2008 12:24am
Quoting digerati
Ok luSan, I was merely trying to just reply without being a super asshole, but I cant hold back.

Yes I read about 19 pages and then stopped.

It was hard to get past FTI's orginal post since he is bashing all technical analysis pretty much.

All the technical analysis does work, there a lots that use it with great success. I think its terrible to start a thread bashing it.

Maybe someone should start a thread bashing FTI's methods?
Maybe I will start it?

Good stuff now stfu and move on.

All I wanted to do was correct the guy.

I mean hell, if you are going togo through the trouble of pointing out the flaws in things if they exist, why not get the info correct?

If this kinda response to something so simple turns you off, then go
If you are going to take the trouble of criticizing other posters' spelling, ensure that your own post is error free. You are from the U.S.A., so I presume that English is your first language. I took the liberty of highlighting a couple of your errors in the above posting. Oh, and by the way, Togo is a West African country.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #1,442
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:50am Feb 12, 2008 9:50am
Quoting digerati
I must correct you on this if you have not been corrected already.

It wasn't Leonardo DiCaprio
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi..._Shankbone.jpg

It wasn't Leonardo Da Vinci
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...nardo_self.jpg

And it wasn't Leonardo from the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...MNTLeo2007.jpg

That created Fibonacci. You can't even spell it right.

It was this guy.

Leonardo of Pisa (c. 1170 – c. 1250), also known as Leonardo Pisano, Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo Fibonacci

http://www.bestofsicily.com/mag/art215.gif

You do not have your facts in order, and the only fallacy in this article is the article itself.
It will be a cold day in hell before I would scoop so low as to split hairs with people who cannot read properly. Inability to understand the word "fostered" does not display your weakness in language. From your posting ,it display only that ego, is your master.
If a person is unable to distinguish between a mathematician and a scientist then it is their loss.

For me, I studied the priciples of fibonacci not the mathematics alone and my studies were inspired from works by Leonardo Da vinci and later researchers. If your intentions is to display your lack of command for the English language, then be my guess. But do try to read carefully before you jump about, displaying your little knowledge for the nobel prize.

I am sure you are right that Leonardo Pisano created the Fibonacci mathematics. For your education please be informed that Da vincci was a student of your beloved Leonardo Pisano and it was he , who illustrated and fostered the principle.

"In the 1490s he studied mathematics under Luca Pacioli and prepared a series of drawings of regular solids in a skeletal form to be engraved as plates for Pacioli's book Divina Proportione, published in 1509."

Do you know what "The Vitruvian Man" is?
Just for your education,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonardo_da_Vinci
look under "Leonardo as observer, scientist and inventor"

So for you , please enough of your ego, thanks, but no thanks.
And for your starting a thread against me, sure , go ahead.
The last I checked , its still a free world, so please do not be held back.

Wonder why such a learned person has to read my thread?
Have the markets been treating you badly?
The market loves people with ego like yours, so see you in the markets.
Don't be late, and do bring enough money.
  • #1,443
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:55am Feb 12, 2008 9:55am
Quoting digerati
Ok luSan, I was merely trying to just reply without being a super asshole, but I cant hold back.

Yes I read about 19 pages and then stopped.

It was hard to get past FTI's orginal post since he is bashing all technical analysis pretty much.

All the technical analysis does work, there a lots that use it with great success. I think its terrible to start a thread bashing it.

Maybe someone should start a thread bashing FTI's methods?
Maybe I will start it?

Good stuff now stfu and move on.

All I wanted to do was correct the guy.

I mean hell, if you are going togo through the trouble of pointing out the flaws in things if they exist, why not get the info correct?

If this kinda response to something so simple turns you off, then go change your tampon and come back.
digerati,

Welcome to fti's thread. I point this out because it is your not thread to bash. If you disagree with something then a healthy debate regarding trading is welcome. Using foul language and a tone within your writing that encompasses negativity, disrespect, and is offensive not only to the thread starter himself but everyone else who reads this thread is extremely immature and unacceptable. May I remind you of forum rule #1; Debate with respect and stay on the topic of trading. You are a new member to this thread and to the Factory, you are making a grand entrance which points to an ego out of control. If you have something constructive to say in a tone that is respectful, then I am sure any and all threads here will welcome your opinions whether they are agreed upon or not. If you do not like this thread or the people within, then fine, move on. In the meantime, please show some candor and respect.

NP
  • #1,444
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:03am Feb 12, 2008 10:03am
Quoting digerati
Ok luSan, I was merely trying to just reply without being a super asshole, but I cant hold back.

Yes I read about 19 pages and then stopped.

It was hard to get past FTI's orginal post since he is bashing all technical analysis pretty much.

All the technical analysis does work, there a lots that use it with great success. I think its terrible to start a thread bashing it.

Maybe someone should start a thread bashing FTI's methods?
Maybe I will start it?

Good stuff now stfu and move on.

All I wanted to do was correct the guy.

I mean hell, if you are going togo through the trouble of pointing out the flaws in things if they exist, why not get the info correct?

If this kinda response to something so simple turns you off, then go change your tampon and come back.
And further, Mr vulgar mouth. you take your own advice and begone, you have been warned.
  • #1,445
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:15am Feb 12, 2008 10:15am
Fti and all! Just ignore the guy, please.
  • #1,446
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:23am Feb 12, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Northpro
digerati,
Welcome to fti's thread. I point this out because it is your not thread to bash.
NP

I understand it is my not thread to bash.

Thank you.

Lets move on now.
  • #1,447
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:26am Feb 12, 2008 10:26am
Quoting alexfot
Fti and all! Just ignore the guy, please.
Hi alexfot,
In all fairness, I can accept his comments, although he doesn't read well.
But to use foul language, when it was uncalled for, really degraded himself.

regards
  • #1,448
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:28am Feb 12, 2008 10:28am
Quoting alexfot
Fti and all! Just ignore the guy, please.
Agreed, on the top right of each post, just click the clean-up icon and select the rule broken. In future if we just did that instead of responding, all will be well.

fti, please don't let this distract from answering my question.

The fact is that Leonardo Da Vinci did foster the fibonacci numbers. This has already come up in the thread and has already been answered.
  • #1,449
  • Edited 10:57am Feb 12, 2008 10:34am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting fti
It will be a cold day in hell before I would scoop so low as to split hairs with people who cannot read properly. Inability to understand the word "fostered" does not display your weakness in language. From your posting ,it display only that ego, is your master.
If a person is unable to distinguish between a mathematician and a scientist then it is their loss.

For me, I studied the priciples of fibonacci not the mathematics alone and my studies were inspired from works by Leonardo Da vinci and later researchers. If your intentions is to display your lack of command for the English language, then be my guess. But do try to read carefully before you jump about, displaying your little knowledge for the nobel prize.

I am sure you are right that Leonardo Pisano created the Fibonacci mathematics. For your education please be informed that Da vincci was a student of your beloved Leonardo Pisano and it was he , who illustrated and fostered the principle.

"In the 1490s he studied mathematics under Luca Pacioli and prepared a series of drawings of regular solids in a skeletal form to be engraved as plates for Pacioli's book Divina Proportione, published in 1509."

Do you know what "The Vitruvian Man" is?
Just for your education,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonardo_da_Vinci
look under "Leonardo as observer, scientist and inventor"

So for you , please enough of your ego, thanks, but no thanks.
And for your starting a thread against me, sure , go ahead.
The last I checked , its still a free world, so please do not be held back.

Wonder why such a learned person has to read my thread?
Have the markets been treating you badly?
The market loves people with ego like yours, so see you in the markets.
Don't be late, and do bring enough money.
You know Fti means business when he types an error free, spelling perfect, tip top totally understandable post! :

Let's gte bcak on toipc and cnotinue wtih the lesosns.

Oh btw Fti, I prefer your original style of writing. At least we know we are dancing with you!
  • #1,450
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:35am Feb 12, 2008 10:35am
Quoting Zoran
fti, please don't let this distract from answering my question.
As well as posting your example attack sequence again ... or are you needing more persuading, hmmmm?http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/spankin.gif
  • #1,451
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:41am Feb 12, 2008 10:41am
[quote=sitoca;1846306]Hi Fti,

I ask because I have a hard time coming up with a plan to learn how to feel the market movement. Looking at your reply, I guess the only way to learn is via trial and error, learn from the experience to dance with the markets.

I have a tough time coming up with a trading plan because you are the first trader I encounter that doesn't advocate some sort of system entry/exit requirements but rely mostly on instinct/feel to read the market. Maybe its just me but I cannot quantify it into a scientific method to learn.

As you said,

"Patterns can come, patterns may fail, it may mutate, but thats not important. What's important is , What the trader does to cope with the changing scenerios. Here his experience and nimbleness backed by sound MM would excel him."

thus I believe its similar to sports in that the more you practise and play the better one gets.


Well said sitoca..........

in other words there are very few areas in life where reading and studying and asking/answering questions makes you "successful" (education might be the only one?, and yes I am a full time high school teacher). But in most endeavors, application of knowledge (results) is all that matters, and putting how to do it in words almost defeats the purpose of the original activity. I am trying to engage in a professional activity of trading against thousands of seasoned veterans, and the odds are not in my favor. I would not consider playing professional football, bicycling, chess, being a brain surgeon, etc. because I do not have the proper "training" or skill set. In order to deal with uncertainty, people devise all kinds of "scientific" means of studying any behavior in order to justify their behavior, and I think FTI is trying to show us a path to success that is almost impossible to define in words. Almost every professional activity (teaching included) involves some sort of mentorship or coaching, because showing someone how to do something is far more effective than telling them how to do it. I have tried to take the training wheels off my bike since FTI opened this thread, only to discover I was riding a tricycle. Taking a wheel off a tricycle is very dangerous and uncomfortable, so I have started reading the entire thread over again, with ambitions of competing with Lance Armstrong once I have a few more hundred hours of naked chart dancing under my belt.................

thanks fti, leigh, northpro, alexfot, zoran and other positive contributors to this thread, being a mentor is a most difficult task!
  • #1,452
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:42am Feb 12, 2008 10:42am
Quoting leighsww
As well as posting your example attack sequence again ... or are you needing more persuading, hmmmm?http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/spankin.gif
I have a copy of that attack sequence (i.e. the post fti deleted).

Now, I was intending to re-read this thread when it reached page 100 and was hoping to have progressed further. Now we are almost there and it seems photos of Leonardo will dominate it.

P.S. I will respect fti's decision. Since he deleted it I don't think I should re-issue it. He did so for a reason and I will use it for personal reference (unless he says otherwise).
  • #1,453
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:48am Feb 12, 2008 10:48am
Quoting Zoran
I have a copy of that attack sequence (i.e. the post fti deleted).
Well, you best hang on to it and try to get him to signature it, cuz one day it may be worth millions ... you know, like one of those Leonardo chap's paintings, lol.
  • #1,454
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:50am Feb 12, 2008 10:50am
Inserted Video

That will improve you day, after all losses
  • #1,455
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:58am Feb 12, 2008 10:58am
Quoting leighsww
Well, you best hang on to it and try to get him to signature it, cuz one day it may be worth millions ... you know, like one of those Leonardo chap's paintings, lol.
Yep, I've already printed and framed it. It's sitting inbetween my painting of Mona Lisa and the drawning of Vitruvian Man!
  • #1,456
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:13am Feb 12, 2008 11:13am
Hi digerati,

i believe that everyone has their own style of trading....as we here...i mean this group choose the style taught by fti......can u pls don't interupt the learning process of everyone that is interested in it?......pls do respect others and urself......u can prove fti is wrong through debate but not like this.....if u have a better style of trading....pls do share with us tho.....in the mean time pls don't interupt here....tq
  • #1,457
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:22am Feb 12, 2008 11:22am
Quoting alexfot
Fti and all! Just ignore the guy, please.
Alexfot and all. I agree. It was just a distraction. The dance is more important.

This morning I danced with my typical approach and I gathered 76 pips in 2 hrs. Since I have only 2 hours a day for trading, I am very encouraged with fti's approach. Of course, because of the shortness of my trading period, I cannot implement the full defence and attack that he teaches u. I have only 26 5-M bars to win the war! I have to tailor it to these few 26. I do not trust fibo and the speed of the 1M chart it too fast for BE calculation.

I suspect that I could do much better if I take more risk during my defence and attack.

Patternwise? with 26 5-M, there is not time to see any formation before the forrmation is gone. I think that I will start a deep single bar analysis. After all every 5-M bar tell us something about the current affair of the battlefield.

I do trust trendlines and S/R.

Regards to all.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,458
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:30am Feb 12, 2008 11:30am
Quoting MickD
Hi All,

This is how I (roughly) see the math for Fti's attack sequence:

On entering troops -

Stage Enter: Total in battle:
A 1 scout = 1 unit
C 1x1 = 1 = 2 units in
E 2x2 = 4 = to get 4 units we add 2 for total of 4
attack 4x4 = 16 = in full scale attack now add 16 for total of 20

On taking profits -
Here he uses a simple reverse fib sequence to take profits and reduce exposure to the return leg and set up for the next wave.

last entry of troops was 16 so halve that to start at 8 (or the last entry was 4 plus 4 say) to give the starting fib number.

Does that sound right?
Hi All,
sorry guys, OT for a mom there.

@ MickD,
Your reading of the MM is mostly right, for the example I posted.
The 16 lots attack was a decision , derived that the momentum of the swing towards the support. There is no logical mathematics for that, except that it was a decision for a quick and final attack sequence . (note that the my net available exposure can be only 20 for this example. 4 was used and 16 is the residue unused). Notice that the high exposure was not tolerant of stay in the market, and is used to forage for "foreign capital" to sustain the actual 4 as ammo to ride a little, but risklessly.
This exercise was a favourable run, but there will be instances where all 20 can be at a loss. That would present a rescue scenerio that requires that the trader will exceed his 10% capital at risk. It can escalate to 30 % very quickly dependent on the volatility. So in essence , a rescue of higher order is required. This is difficult for the undercapitalised or unprepared.

For not so experienced traders, they have to be careful to attempt it this way. It is aggressive, but is how professionals operate. The lesson here for the smaller traders, is that, if they did their sums, most traders are actually in effects overtrading, and the leverage facilities accorded them, actually, helping to accelerate their ruin.

It is no rocket science to model this MO. There is no wrongs or rights. And no one can construct a model for another trader. At the end of the day , the trader have to find his own niche and equilibrium.

This is the reasons for my hesitation to bring all except the concepts on the table. That only those who can understand and build their own models will undertake the risk.

Nevertheless, as requested I repost the example again for examination. BUT remember THIS IS ONLY ONE SCENERIO. It is not the holy grail to trading. Moreover this was done from hindsight , therefore important components of the decision process is absent.

regards
Attached Image
  • #1,459
  • Feb 12, 2008 3:45pm Feb 12, 2008 3:45pm
Thanks for your explanation Fti, I understand fully.

Hi All,

I think Fti's input of 16 units was very aggressive and you would not do this unless you had ideal conditions and quick reactions to handle adverse conditions. As he said this scenario was in hindsight (ie. it was laid out after the fact) so it was an ideal sequence and it was just to get an idea of how to perform an attack sequence.

I and as I'm sure many others could see right away that having full exposure so close to your basis price would be quite dangerous, this again points out that we need to be very careful in our calculations of risk and tolerance before entering the market.
Once you can 'dance' though and have a feel for the market you're in you can start to make these decisions more confidently but you also need to have enough back up for a rescue.
I think for a while, trade as small as you can, at least until this style of trading becomes second nature.
I have been trading 'very' small the last few days, so small in fact that my total risk if in aggressive third rescue - going bad - is only about 3-5% of book. BUT, using the strategies here I have been able to save many 'wrong' trades comfortably and aggressively and make some good trades and still pull out about .5-1% of book value a day, and I'm still learning!

What I'm trying to say is, I think you can still do quite well with an aggressive style will very little risk, don't get greedy, just keep chipping away at the market taking what it gives -when it gives, this will only get easier with practice.
  • #1,460
  • Feb 12, 2008 5:25pm Feb 12, 2008 5:25pm
You can control the lion with whip and chair but take your eyes off him for a second and you’ll be lucky if he doesn’t take a pound of flesh with his claws or worse make you his meal.

Preservation of capital is an absolute must in the markets, unless you can print your own. To be really aggressive you need to be trading with a small percentage of what you’ve got stashed in your boot, so if it gets taken by the dealer you have enough to ante and play the game on the next hand.

You hit the market large and she goes against you, you’d better know how your going to handle it, just how far you can go and the point where you have to cut and run or else you'll have the deer in the headlights look right before you get ran over.

The markets have to move to make money, volatility is something to embrace not avoid, but to survive the long run, the mindset needs to be more of a marathon than a 100 meter sprint.

Fwiw,
A
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