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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #61,241
  • Feb 10, 2008 7:38am Feb 10, 2008 7:38am
Headlines out from G7 meeting
G7 Agrees US Jobs market is failing; Urges again for accelerated appreciation of China's Yuan -Output and employment growth have slowed "considerably" with risks tilted to the downside. However, long-term G7 fundamentals remain solid with growth expected in 2008.
-G7 to sell gold to raise oney for the IMF
-Agree high oil reflects rising world demand, calls upon OPEC to raise output. Members should be investing to improve energy efficiency (new statement)
-U.S. Paulson says G7 needs a "proactively" coordinated response to financial markets turmoil
-ECB's Draghi states "still no eveidence of credit contraction in Europe
-ECB's Trichet particuarly attentive to "bi-lateral" FX ratees (when asked he directly referenced the Yuan/Euro cross)
- ECB's Weber says "no reason" to doubt German growth outlook. Not concerned with high Euro. See's signs of recession in U.S. and feels "no pressure" to follow U.S. Fed moves lower.
  • #61,242
  • Feb 10, 2008 8:12am Feb 10, 2008 8:12am
Quoting Dat7447
Just want to share even though karmo had shown it.,
TF weekly.
241.35 is chosen as 100 % fibo(this is the level of successful retracement from 251.07--)219.29.

246.00 horizontal line is my eagle' eye H&S.
225.00 is the neckline.
After break of neckline, estimated completion of successful H&S were about 2100 pips,thus 204.00 is the gross estimation.(GJ reach 204.59)

Stoch setting 8,3,3 was previously low to about 8 and currently going to 20 level.QQE bottom low.Divergence is there.Previous good support approximate to 50% fibo could be tested again.
Then GJ would move far down to 195 level(or more?)
If this retracement happen I rather called this as denial/anger towards UK economy, and then bargaining,depression and acceptance will take place.
What divergence indicator are you using at the bottom of that screenshot?
  • #61,243
  • Feb 10, 2008 9:14am Feb 10, 2008 9:14am
Dear Fxmoments- It's FX5_divergence_v2.1.

My study TF 4H.

Conclussion-neutral.need further move for clue.

points to think.

1.Price has pierce tenkan- sen from down- to upward, entering the ichimoku cloud/senkou span B(but candle has not closed above it), and golden cross has not yet occur(also tenkan-sen/kijun-sen horizontal ie flat market at current time).----).,posibility of upward trend but confidence level still low.

2.Stoch 1 h, turning down,and I believe an upward direction from below 20 is a good long signal.Stoch 4H pulled down by stoch 1H but yet not below 50 level.An uptrend for TF4H is still intact(you may change the setting to 8,3,3 in which I think more fragile)

3.Initial move may be down to 61.8% fibo draw(stock 1H will move to os level first), and for a valid uptrend for TF4H, the price should move upward from that level(to say elasticity of stoch 4H pulling the trend back to upward), and confidence for a buy is further validated by golden cross or price upper than ichimoku cloud.

Also drawn on chart is mt4-LSR.KG F1 and KG mom is flat(but moving from down to upward).Ichimoku setting is 9.26,52(some may only take this setting to Day/weekly ,tf-H1 setting could be 12,24,120.- I could not get the suggested setting for TF4H, thus I used default setting as my reference)

It's me-newbie,so forgive any mistake...it's a learning curve.
Attached Image
  • #61,244
  • Feb 10, 2008 10:00am Feb 10, 2008 10:00am
Analysis TF 1H.,

Golden cross had occured on thursday, to the senkou line B(tp), but then tenkan-sen & kijun sen became horizontal again.(dead cross may occuring tomorrow)

Stoch 1H has reach ob level, but price may continue down before we see it osscillates up again.Divergence now in play.

Price may down to 207.86=50 % fibo from last swing low-high(or 207.40=61.8%) for correction before up again.Included is ind-TD-demark-3-1 which suggest 217.83 is the LC1_1.
MT4-LSAR is at 218.20.


Overall conclussion.

Price may down initially to 208.24(TF4H=61.8%), or
207.86 (TF1H average), then
Possible up accordingly to daily/weekly study(TF4H now neutral-upward level only to determine as time give further clue)

Thanks
Attached Image
  • #61,245
  • Edited 2:39pm Feb 10, 2008 12:13pm | Edited 2:39pm
Wow, very nice analysis over the weekend! =

Here is an object 4hr chart I will be following for the week. Daily pivot will be updated accordingly.

I will be posting a chart twice a day to determine how GJ fairs against my predicted chart.

As can be seen from "trend traffic" indicator as ZL Stoch and QQE5 indicators were going up main trend continued down. I guess this can be seen as a form of divergence =

Currently "Trend Traffic" indicator does not tell me to buy long term yet and neither does my chart =

Good luck all in your trading!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #61,246
  • Feb 10, 2008 12:53pm Feb 10, 2008 12:53pm
Wow, sycho u got banned, u musta been a bad boy on other threads or something because i havent read anything in this one that would suggest u getting banned. I rather liked the way you put things LOL Perhaps some are rapped up pretty tight.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #61,247
  • Feb 10, 2008 1:40pm Feb 10, 2008 1:40pm
Am lost..lol
  • #61,248
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:18pm Feb 10, 2008 2:18pm
Last week the inverse h/s on the 1 hr chart broke the NL but didnt completely follow thru. No follow thru probably because the trend was down and the 200 ema was not far from the NL.
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  • #61,249
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:26pm Feb 10, 2008 2:26pm
15 min chart has a down h/s witht he NL at about 208.60 ish. If the price closes below the Nl an pulls back to the nl for a further move down, all it has to do is break the 208.50 area in order to violate the 4 hr INVERSE h/s which usually creats a nice sized move south. (4 hr chart to come)
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  • #61,250
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:28pm Feb 10, 2008 2:28pm
Quoting PipChick
Last week the inverse h/s on the 1 hr chart broke the NL but didnt completely follow thru. No follow thru probably because the trend was down and the 200 ema was not far from the NL.


ty for the chart ... love those h n s patterns... keep teaching me!

seems to be a science to it plus an art lol.... slowly starting to get it....


so do u think the smas (resitances0 are only bumps in the road? or is it going to get violated? wait n see? also where would the viloation line go?
  • #61,251
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:37pm Feb 10, 2008 2:37pm
My preference: Wait for a close below the 208.35 area (notice the major consolidation there also from last week) in order to sell. For longs...I wll wait for a close above the 200 ema and then pullbacks. There is a whole lot of resistance and the 4 hr inverse is situated in a downtrend so follow thru could be limited. Of course there will be sniping opportunities in there but I will follow the master snipers for that. hehehe.
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  • #61,252
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:40pm Feb 10, 2008 2:40pm
Quoting PipChick
My preference: Wait for a close below the 208.35 area (notice the major consolidation there also from last week) in order to sell. For longs...I wll wait for a close above the 200 ema and then pullbacks. There is a whole lot of resistance and the 4 hr inverse is situated in a downtrend so follow thru could be limited. Of course there will be sniping opportunities in there but I will follow the master snipers for that. hehehe.

i approve of that fib! especially if it breaks short with the larger trend
  • #61,253
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:41pm Feb 10, 2008 2:41pm
Quoting dagoods
i approve of that fib! especially if it breaks short with the larger trend
DO you see the major opportunity there dag?
  • #61,254
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:41pm Feb 10, 2008 2:41pm
Cant imagine Yen futures going much higher for a while but anything is possible
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #61,255
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:42pm Feb 10, 2008 2:42pm
Quoting dagoods
i approve of that fib! especially if it breaks short with the larger trend
We just need to have a plan for longs and a plan for shorts.
  • #61,256
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:43pm Feb 10, 2008 2:43pm
GBP/CHF looks sweet tonight too. I think last sunday she gave up 80-100 pips in just a few minutes.
  • #61,257
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:52pm Feb 10, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting PipChick
DO you see the major opportunity there dag?
I am not Dag but I assume you are talking about a good long opportunity there if the inverse head and shoulders holds.
  • #61,258
  • Feb 10, 2008 2:58pm Feb 10, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting forexnovice
I am not Dag but I assume you are talking about a good long opportunity there if the inverse head and shoulders holds.
Hi forexnovice. I see a better short opportunity if the inverse is violated. Mainly because the inverse is situated in a downtrend and all of the major MA"s are above the current price.
  • #61,259
  • Feb 10, 2008 3:08pm Feb 10, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting PipChick
Hi forexnovice. I see a better short opportunity if the inverse is violated. Mainly because the inverse is situated in a downtrend and all of the major MA"s are above the current price.
Agreed. Dagoods already mentioned about the short in his post. I misinterpreted your reference to "major opportunity" as going long because of the inverse H-n-S which is nicely depicted in the chart.

Thanks for the chart Pipchick.
  • #61,260
  • Feb 10, 2008 5:18pm Feb 10, 2008 5:18pm
hey PC,

was looking at a poss. h&s on the 4hr gbp. has not formed yet but looks like a poss for later in the week. whatcha think.
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