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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #61,161
  • Feb 8, 2008 4:21am Feb 8, 2008 4:21am
Here's another thing I see, after forming a bottom last week or so at 204.60, GJ rallied towards 214 and yesterday we made a Higher Low and as you can see price retraced 88.6% and I expect GJ to make a Higher High next week, the daily 50% at 217.xx should be coming in the coming weeks

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/4176/gjbg0.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #61,162
  • Feb 8, 2008 4:25am Feb 8, 2008 4:25am
Quoting jarroo
Forgot the chart.

very nice chart jaroo!!



ps here one for you guys courtesy of dxtrademasterfibberguy(from skunny thread) fibs are NOT guanteed only one of many possible fib placement possibilities..... but here ya go
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #61,163
  • Feb 8, 2008 4:42am Feb 8, 2008 4:42am
Quoting karmostaji
Here's another thing I see, after forming a bottom last week or so at 204.60, GJ rallied towards 214 and yesterday we made a Higher Low and as you can see price retraced 88.6% and I expect GJ to make a Higher High next week, the daily 50% at 217.xx should be coming in the coming weeks

Very Nice, Karmo. To add to that, weekly Price Action looks good. The Pin Bar two weeks ago, which is still in play. And if this week ends with a big O' weekly reversal candle (spinning top). All things are looking upwards.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,164
  • Feb 8, 2008 4:44am Feb 8, 2008 4:44am
Forgot the chart again.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,165
  • Feb 8, 2008 5:27am Feb 8, 2008 5:27am
Trade update. Stopped out.
The 208.88 : took off half at 75 pips other half at 25 pips.

The 290.42: -30pip loss. All in all a positive trade. Most important, I gave it a chance to run at zero risk. I Do add to a winning trade. I DO NOT add to a lossing trade.

Looking for a good long entry. If price continues to bounce off the 208.84, I'll jump in.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,166
  • Feb 8, 2008 6:48am Feb 8, 2008 6:48am
There is a G7 meeting this weekend. I dont expect much to come out of it, but the eur/usd will reflect caution until the communique is released. I expect this pair to turn upwards after this weekend.
I noticed some strong usd/jpy buying thursday, which broke former support turned resistance areas around 106.60/85.
I noticed yen carry trade pairs getting sold off Thursday, but a slightly bid tone so far today.
I noticed usd/cad bid thursday but offered today.
eur/gbp was offered thursday, but may become bid again when eur/usd becomes bid again, whenever that will be.
Dow futures are set to open negative as of this post.

I am watching these cross currencies pairs and the dow for a clue as to when and where gbp/jpy will move.
  • #61,167
  • Feb 8, 2008 7:08am Feb 8, 2008 7:08am
Weekly chart 1c mom and 5 c mom show a possible retrace up to 210.60 area. The 300 sma (pink color) was rejected 2 times in the last 3 candles (see that 161 fib extension also).
Price closed above the 250 sma (green color) for the last 4 candles.
This looks to be a consolidation for another push down, as long as resistance holds at the 200 sma (red color) which is sitting at the 213.07 area. Any daily candle close below the red 200 sma is bearish. A daily close above it signifies further retracement upwards to the weekly 5 sma high at 214.09. We need a definite close above the weekly 5 sma to be consider bullish short term. Mid and long term is still bearish, with consolidation.
Weekly 5 sma close has crossed downward below weekly 5 sma open which is bearish until it crosses up, which takes a while to show up.
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  • #61,168
  • Feb 8, 2008 7:14am Feb 8, 2008 7:14am
Need to quote myself here, lol

We got the correction to GJ trendline, and now the direction is looking much better. The trendline is pointing to the 217 level that Karmo is referring to ...

A good (?) strategy in this situation could be the following: buy at the tl, close when 4H stoch top.

Quoting Rocroy
...

GJ hit channel bottom, and is now moving up, though the current trendline probably gives a little bit too optimistic view of the uprise speed.

UJ has also come down a long way, without any decent retrace, and if it now retraces to 50 fib line, GJ will go up 500-600 pips. And if take a look at cable on daily chart, you'll notice that it is in a similar situation as UJ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #61,169
  • Feb 8, 2008 7:23am Feb 8, 2008 7:23am
We got the correction to GJ trendline...

-------
http://www.tradingrooms.com/chartpos...2008132231.png
  • #61,170
  • Feb 8, 2008 7:24am Feb 8, 2008 7:24am
Daily chart shows 1c mom above 100 and slightly sloping upward for now, along with the 5c mom. 14c mom is slightly sloping upward and testing the 100 line. 10c mom is is showing a slight bend to flatten out. All 4 moms are showing slight agreement for a retrace up before resumption of current downtrend. Price has breached the 5 sma open/close pair, and retraced after rejection 22 sma (green color @ 209.93).
Daily 5 sma high is sitting at 210.54 area, so that is the 2nd target if 209.90 is broken.
Notice the higher low on this daily chart. Rejection at the 161 fib extension (205.86).
Notice the possible pin bar formation. (not yet confirmed).
Notice the 207.97 rejection of daily 5 sma low (white color).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #61,171
  • Feb 8, 2008 7:26am Feb 8, 2008 7:26am
dagoods, my man, how do you use those gun lines??

Quoting dagoods
very nice chart jaroo!!



ps here one for you guys courtesy of dxtrademasterfibberguy(from skunny thread) fibs are NOT guanteed only one of many possible fib placement possibilities..... but here ya go
  • #61,172
  • Feb 8, 2008 7:26am Feb 8, 2008 7:26am
Might seem strange but I run a heap of minute charts into the future these days, all based on time.

http://www.fxsurfer.com/forums/showt...ted=1#post3808
  • #61,173
  • Feb 8, 2008 7:31am Feb 8, 2008 7:31am
my strategy is to build shorts at rejection areas of retraces, unless 213/214 is broken with a daily close.

I am also buying dips after rejection of downmoves with a tp around resistance sma's and fibs.

Range trade should be cautiously played in both directions. tight MM is needed. Be patient until breakout occurs.
  • #61,174
  • Edited 8:03am Feb 8, 2008 7:41am | Edited 8:03am
Quoting ovaforty
my strategy is to build shorts at rejection areas of retraces, unless 213/214 is broken with a daily close.

I am also buying dips after rejection of downmoves with a tp around resistance sma's and fibs.

Range trade should be cautiously played in both directions. tight MM is needed. Be patient until breakout occurs.
We are on the same page my friend. . .

Looks to me bear are in control for the moment, if price exceeds 209.40 decisively then I would agree further upside is possible to 211.50 which is just above daily hi/lo gann and 213.60 which is the top of the range.

Daily pivot is the place to watch, a break and close below would see 206.60 1st before 204.45. . . a break of the latter would set the stage for 203 area.

All in all GJ is still stuck in range mode. Until GJ breaks out of this range I opt to play the short side or go with the bigger trend for now.
However, I do agree that GJ has made a higher low looking at the Daily chart but GJ also is trading below Weekly pivot of 210.58 so 207.58 could be in the cards before the end of the day if not Sunday. . .
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  • #61,175
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:04am Feb 8, 2008 8:04am
I read a couple of threads that said that they think we might be going to 217 and was thinking that we would have to see the DOW rally considerably? Just an observation. Any thoughts?
  • #61,176
  • Edited 8:32am Feb 8, 2008 8:14am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting robtw1983
I read a couple of threads that said that they think we might be going to 217 and was thinking that we would have to see the DOW rally considerably? Just an observation. Any thoughts?
Looking at the daily chart, that looks to be possible with GJ making a higher low from previous low. . .

However, GJ has some wood to chop before doing so. What concerns me is that everytime GJ makes an attempt to exceed the previous high, bears take control and push price back down. Those long bearish candle on the 4hr chart can't be ignored. . .

Until price is trading above Daily hi/lo gann and can decisively trade above 211.80 resistance and make higher highs on 4hr chart, my position will continue to be short on all rallies for now. . .

Also, I do see the nice PB on the Daily chart which is very tempting. . . but I'd rather play it safe for now since I have positive trades in play or as some would say FREE TRADES!

In my mind UJ and GU are the charts to monitor which directly affect GJ to a certain degree. . .
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  • #61,177
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:44am Feb 8, 2008 8:44am
The Dow has a way of screwing up the best laid plans.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #61,178
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:47am Feb 8, 2008 8:47am
Quoting DutchTrader
The Dow has a way of screwing up the best laid plans.
Yeah, just go with the flow.....
  • #61,179
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:52am Feb 8, 2008 8:52am
Quoting quecee5
Looking at the daily chart, that looks to be possible with GJ making a higher low from previous low. . .

However, GJ has some wood to chop before doing so. What concerns me is that everytime GJ makes an attempt to exceed the previous high, bears take control and push price back down. Those long bearish candle on the 4hr chart can't be ignored. . .

Until price is trading above Daily hi/lo gann and can decisively trade above 211.80 resistance and make higher highs on 4hr chart, my position will continue to be short on all rallies for now. . .

Also, I do see the nice PB on the Daily chart which is very tempting. . . but I'd rather play it safe for now since I have positive trades in play or as some would say FREE TRADES!

In my mind UJ and GU are the charts to monitor which directly affect GJ to a certain degree. . .
Your right the UJ and the GU need to be followed, but if you track the DOW you'll see point for point, pip for pip moves. I can't do this with my charts but if you overlay a daily DOW chart over a G/J chart, its almost a mirror image.

DOW futures too.
  • #61,180
  • Feb 8, 2008 8:55am Feb 8, 2008 8:55am
Quoting robtw1983
Your right the UJ and the GU need to be followed, but if you track the DOW you'll see point for point, pip for pip moves. I can't do this with my charts but if you overlay a daily DOW chart over a G/J chart, its almost a mirror image.

DOW futures too.
Agreed, but only during NY session. . .
Food for thought!
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