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WTF! Surprise UK Rate Hike!

  • #21
  • Jan 11, 2007 6:59am Jan 11, 2007 6:59am
Forget 1 min.

Here is the TICK info:

1st tick: .9380 -> .9405
2nd tick: .9405 -> .9428
3rd tick: .9428 -> .9451
4th tick: .9451 -> .9474
5th tick: .9474 -> .9489
6th tick: .9489 -> .9496
7th: .9496 -> .9503
8th: .9503 -> .9510
9th: .9510 -> 9518

all 9 ticks might be couple of secs
  • #22
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:07am Jan 11, 2007 7:07am
Quoting PipStar
It just goes to show. Always be ready to pull the trigger whatever the experts say and whatever the expected number is.
True, I use COT and the Big Dog are Way Long on Friday... So a short is near on GBP. But like we see were long for now...
I expect 2 thing :
Double top ( reverse) or Breach at ~234.80 always on GBPJPY
Will see
Sorry for my bad english translation
  • #23
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:26am Jan 11, 2007 7:26am
Quoting bundyraider
It's not completely unexpected is it??
pretty much it was a surprise. i didnt hear anyone calling for a hike. there was a rumor that flew around about an hour before the release (saw it on TTN) that said there was slight possibility of a hike, but thats all i can find. anyone have a source that was calling for rate hike?
Relax and be happy.
  • #24
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:26am Jan 11, 2007 7:26am
Quoting theroller
Forget 1 min.

Here is the TICK info:

1st tick: .9380 -> .9405
2nd tick: .9405 -> .9428
3rd tick: .9428 -> .9451
4th tick: .9451 -> .9474
5th tick: .9474 -> .9489
6th tick: .9489 -> .9496
7th: .9496 -> .9503
8th: .9503 -> .9510
9th: .9510 -> 9518

all 9 ticks might be couple of secs
yet some people will still complain about being slipped LOL
Relax and be happy.
  • #25
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:35am Jan 11, 2007 7:35am
Quoting merlin
yet some people will still complain about being slipped LOL
LOL ...Someone should take a screen capture of their Level II screen during a news release. We could show it in reply to any "I was slipped by my criminally insane broker again!!!" posts.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #26
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:44am Jan 11, 2007 7:44am
Forget trying to get in on the spike. There were plenty chances for smaller profits on the retrace.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #27
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:45am Jan 11, 2007 7:45am
Quoting merlin
pretty much it was a surprise. i didnt hear anyone calling for a hike. there was a rumor that flew around about an hour before the release (saw it on TTN) that said there was slight possibility of a hike, but thats all i can find. anyone have a source that was calling for rate hike?
Pretty sure of this.

I've been balancing out Dollar bull/bear information with the assumption that it (the hike) was a posability in the 1st Quarter.

It's played a big part in my rationalizing the posability of 2.000 being reached (cable). Which was against the COT info.

I'll rack my brain for the source when I hit the pillow now! LOL
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #28
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:45am Jan 11, 2007 7:45am
Quoting merlin
pretty much it was a surprise. i didnt hear anyone calling for a hike. there was a rumor that flew around about an hour before the release (saw it on TTN) that said there was slight possibility of a hike, but thats all i can find. anyone have a source that was calling for rate hike?
I finally had improved Internet Connection and was able to load up TTN. (TTN was impossible when using Dialup).

According to TTN:
Quote
INSIGHT BOE RATE DECISION
- BOE: 15% to 20% chance of rate hike today.
- Shadow MPC voted last week 5-4 in favor that the BOE should increase its interest rate at today's policy meeting

I took that cue as a "possible big surprise" and positioned myself for the a possible surprise. I guess these guys were right.

It pays to be informed.
  • #29
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:45am Jan 11, 2007 7:45am
Quoting BurgerKing
Good thing I had a BuyStop on all brokers.
Too bad, i gunned for a 30 pip TP instead of 100!

Hindsight is always a wonderful thing and I am sure you must be happy taking a profit. But this could be one strategy where you dont put a TP when the rate announcement will be a surprise whether rate hike or rate cut. Or like you said put a 100 pip TP which I intend to do myself next time around on this kind of announcement. I manually exited too early but still made 75 pips. So I cant complain.
  • #30
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:48am Jan 11, 2007 7:48am
@bundyraider,

Can you educate me on this COT information?

All i know is that USD Index is going up to where it was last September (which means USD Positive) but I dont see GBPUSD nor EURUSD going in favor of USD.
  • #31
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:13am Jan 11, 2007 8:13am
Quoting merlin
pretty much it was a surprise. i didnt hear anyone calling for a hike. there was a rumor that flew around about an hour before the release (saw it on TTN) that said there was slight possibility of a hike, but thats all i can find. anyone have a source that was calling for rate hike?
I heard reports there was a 30% chance of a hike. The last time the BofE made a "surprise" decision there were also talks of a 30% chance of a hike so it's not that unexpected.

Remember, the BofE governor gets his bottom spanked by the government if inflation hits 3% and it's getting close so it's not really that surprsing.
  • #32
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:54am Jan 11, 2007 8:54am
Quoting PipStar
Hindsight is always a wonderful thing and I am sure you must be happy taking a profit. But this could be one strategy where you dont put a TP when the rate announcement will be a surprise whether rate hike or rate cut. Or like you said put a 100 pip TP which I intend to do myself next time around on this kind of announcement. I manually exited too early but still made 75 pips. So I cant complain.
Perhaps I should divide them into two positions; one with a conservative TP and another with no TP and let it loose on it's own.
  • #33
  • Jan 11, 2007 9:03am Jan 11, 2007 9:03am
Oh Yea..... I missed Big party there !
good job BK
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #34
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:44am Jan 11, 2007 11:44am
Quoting merlin
pretty much it was a surprise. i didnt hear anyone calling for a hike. there was a rumor that flew around about an hour before the release (saw it on TTN) that said there was slight possibility of a hike, but thats all i can find. anyone have a source that was calling for rate hike?
Over the weekend I read somewhere that the "Shadow MPC" voted for a rate hike 5-4 this month, seeing as they have no say in setting the policy right now, I believe it may have been taken with a pinch of salt by commentators etc, but as we've seen today the MPC went for a hike today too - next question is how close was the vote? That will be an interesting trade when the minutes come out in the future!
_____________ Kavs Make It Happen For Yourself
  • #35
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:35pm Jan 11, 2007 12:35pm
I was in a carry trade involving cable and just happened to notice a huge profit from the spike so I sold my position, was around +75 pips so a happy chappy I is
Pip Goes The Weasel
  • #36
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:58pm Jan 11, 2007 12:58pm
Quoting kavsp
Over the weekend I read somewhere that the "Shadow MPC" voted for a rate hike 5-4 this month, seeing as they have no say in setting the policy right now, I believe it may have been taken with a pinch of salt by commentators etc, but as we've seen today the MPC went for a hike today too - next question is how close was the vote? That will be an interesting trade when the minutes come out in the future!
Probably unanimous. Inflation is at 2.7% and their target is 2%. If it goes above 3% the governor has to write a humiliating letter to the chancellor explaining why inflation is getting too high and what they are doing about it. They would have all agreed in principle that rates had to go up but may have disagreed on timing but as they all agreed on principle probably they all voted in favour.
  • #37
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:04pm Jan 11, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting notouch
Probably unanimous. Inflation is at 2.7% and their target is 2%. If it goes above 3% the governor has to write a humiliating letter to the chancellor explaining why inflation is getting too high and what they are doing about it. They would have all agreed in principle that rates had to go up but may have disagreed on timing but as they all agreed on principle probably they all voted in favour.
The Bank of E has also had a sneak look at next months inflation figures and that could have made them make the final decision.
Pip Goes The Weasel
  • #38
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:17pm Jan 11, 2007 1:17pm
on the eur/usd it was a safe trade, we reached a good support level so

no problem in entering a trade against the trend, the hourly trend was up it

reached the pivot point 1.2974 then the news came out by which time you

gotta know they aint gonna cut rates, if it came out on consensus it would

continue down on the weekly trend a nice 30 pips easy money, if they

hiked rates then 1.300 is the next stop, a clear bounce is a good sell indictor plus you have to be pleased with 70 pips most thought the same and had a good days trading
  • #39
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:45pm Jan 11, 2007 4:45pm
I'm glad some of you made money.

I, on the other hand, was short on an intraday trade with an SL 25 pips away from price. When it hit, it gapped the market, kill liquidity, and my SL slipped 75 pips.

I lost some money today.

What can ya do... just go on to the next trade...
Mr. Trend
  • #40
  • Jan 11, 2007 7:45pm Jan 11, 2007 7:45pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I'm glad some of you made money.

I, on the other hand, was short on an intraday trade with an SL 25 pips away from price. When it hit, it gapped the market, kill liquidity, and my SL slipped 75 pips.

I lost some money today.

What can ya do... just go on to the next trade...

Sorry to hear about your loss but may be we could all benefit from your bad experience if you could tell us the name of your broker. 75 pips slippage on a stop loss is huge. It's up to the individual but I would personally immediately look for another broker no matter the circumstances.
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