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Wall Street close watch

  • #161
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:09am Feb 1, 2008 9:09am
Quoting smjones
It isn't the indicator I am talking about. I am referring to the fact that there was no fade after the move. To me this shows a general change in opinion on the Dollar. I also found it very interesting that the disconnect that you refer to also happened in the EURUSD andGBPUSD, which initially went oposite directions and then the EU went lock step with the GU. This is also different. than at least the last 7 or so NFPs.

BTW it was the ADP I was trading from, using the NFP as a catalyst.
But the dollar party didn't happen at UJ, even with Futures not coming to red area or after Dow confirmed bullish (now +90).

There were supermarket sales of the european currencies only. Check AUD, NZD, for instance. They were sold but now they are back to pre-news price...
  • #162
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:44am Feb 1, 2008 9:44am
Quoting SunTrader
Today's Dow and S&P daily bars closed in pinbar form. Pinocchio nose pointing skyward. So if the drop comes, reversal from todays high will be ugleee.
While looking for Isotonic's oil post, I stumbled across
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...&postcount=161

Man how time passes!

Does that mean I'm to blame for you incorporating pin bars into your trading(above was in reference to a post I'd made in the oil thread mentioning pins iirc)?

Any guesses on today's close yet? Red or green, any takers...
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #163
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:50am Feb 1, 2008 9:50am
Quoting cesarnc
But the dollar party didn't happen at UJ, even with Futures not coming to red area or after Dow confirmed bullish (now +90).

There were supermarket sales of the european currencies only. Check AUD, NZD, for instance. They were sold but now they are back to pre-news price...
Well my friend, the Dow lately is like the Weather. If you don't like it, wait an hour. I am more referring to a general direction, not the immediate response.

I do see your point about the UJ, though.
LOL
  • #164
  • Feb 1, 2008 10:07am Feb 1, 2008 10:07am
Quoting SeekingLight
While looking for Isotonic's oil post, I stumbled across
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...&postcount=161

Man how time passes!

Does that mean I'm to blame for you incorporating pin bars into your trading(above was in reference to a post I'd made in the oil thread mentioning pins iirc)?

Any guesses on today's close yet? Red or green, any takers...
Yeah I guess you can take credit for me officially becoming a PinHead.

But really at that time I hadn't heard that particular term used before.

I use it now since that is what most in forex use to describe what I like to just think of as a reversal bar that extends outside the range of the previous bar(s).

+ + +

As far as the friday close, I am thinking green.
  • #165
  • Feb 2, 2008 5:26am Feb 2, 2008 5:26am
Quoting smjones
Well my friend, the Dow lately is like the Weather.

LOL
Exactly, there is more pattern here than one would imagine.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #166
  • Feb 5, 2008 5:10pm Feb 5, 2008 5:10pm
Found this interesting to watch

Inserted Video
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #167
  • Feb 6, 2008 5:28am Feb 6, 2008 5:28am
..and allow me to also add a post which quite frankly expresses my own subjective opinion about what's gone on the last 1-2 years pretty well.

Warning: contains excess profanity.
Parental Advisory — Explicit Content

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...s-warning.html
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #168
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:03pm Feb 7, 2008 12:03pm
Okay, just wondering..

2:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...etail_star.gif 356K 340K 378Khttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...us_revised.gif

higher unemployment...

4:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...etail_star.gif -1.5% -1.0% -3.0%

worse home sales AND a revision LOWER of prior..


And I am seeing the DJI rally over 50 pips from opening levels.

Have we reached the "yea yea yea, we already know, we're buying anyway" point or am I missing something here?

From the chart - it's just that price does not want to go below last week's low, because, well, that'd be bad, but going by these FA thingies, shouldn't this kind of go differently?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #169
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:23pm Feb 7, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Okay, just wondering..

2:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...etail_star.gif 356K 340K 378Khttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...us_revised.gif

higher unemployment...

4:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...etail_star.gif -1.5% -1.0% -3.0%

worse home sales AND a revision LOWER of prior..


And I am seeing the DJI rally over 50 pips from opening levels.

Have we reached the "yea yea yea, we already know, we're buying anyway" point or am I missing something here?

From the chart - it's just that price does not want to go below last week's low, because, well, that'd be bad, but going by these FA thingies, shouldn't this kind of go differently?
I admire your effort to figure this market out. I gave up. dow, asia, europe, gold, oil, dollar, carries, you name it.

The only thing that seems pretty likely is another slump in the stock market to finally find a bottom. Why, when, how, who? I don't know.
  • #170
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:31pm Feb 7, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting SeekingLight
..and allow me to also add a post which quite frankly expresses my own subjective opinion about what's gone on the last 1-2 years pretty well.

Warning: contains excess profanity.
Parental Advisory — Explicit Content

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...s-warning.html



nice one sl!


so should we all just buy gold then? or take our measley 2% cds

OR SELL THE CRUD OUT OF EVERYTHING FOREX
  • #171
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:34pm Feb 7, 2008 12:34pm
The bad "news" has been getting priced into the markets for months now.

If you listen to the media regarding subprime, we should all move into cardboard boxes by now.
  • #172
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:36pm Feb 7, 2008 12:36pm
Quoting SunTrader
The bad "news" has been getting priced into the markets for months now.
HI SUN SO U SEE REVERSALS OF FORTUNES ???


MAYBE U SEE THESE REVERSALS IN THE FORM OF TD9S AND 13S MAYBE????



PLEASE POST SOME CHARTS AND ANALYSIS I NEED TO LEARN FROM YOU!!!!
  • #173
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:38pm Feb 7, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting SunTrader
The bad "news" has been getting priced into the markets for months now.

If you listen to the media regarding subprime, we should all move into cardboard boxes by now.

True, but given the amount of lacking disclosure one could argue we've also been years behind of realizing what's REALLY really up

And the market is just beginning to realize the true extent of these implications. If just half the super-doomers are even remotely close to the mark..

Personally I believe there's still a good flush to come still. It's the timing that's always tricky

Was just wondering about the seemingly erratic behavior so far..but I guess the bears get to sleep in, due to having made so many pips lately and won't start the selling until the alarm clock rings
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #174
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:40pm Feb 7, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
I admire your effort to figure this market out. I gave up. dow, asia, europe, gold, oil, dollar, carries, you name it.

The only thing that seems pretty likely is another slump in the stock market to finally find a bottom. Why, when, how, who? I don't know.

Oh you know how it is...one always wants to understand the incomprehensible

But the market really IS a whacky funster, isn't it...
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #175
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:45pm Feb 7, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting SeekingLight
True, but given the amount of lacking disclosure one could argue we've also been years behind of realizing what's REALLY really up

And the market is just beginning to realize the true extent of these implications. If just half the super-doomers are even remotely close to the mark..

Personally I believe there's still a good flush to come still. It's the timing that's always tricky

Was just wondering about the seemingly erratic behavior so far..but I guess the bears get to sleep in, due to having made so many pips lately and won't start the selling until the alarm clock rings

IS THE DOW
GJ CORRLATION STILL ALIVE AND KICKING OR IS IT NO LONGER VALID ???? SEEMS TO BE LOSING ITS TICK BY TICK CORRELATION THAT IT HAD IN THE PAST???
  • #176
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:46pm Feb 7, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting SeekingLight
True, but given the amount of lacking disclosure one could argue we've also been years behind of realizing what's REALLY really up

And the market is just beginning to realize the true extent of these implications. If just half the super-doomers are even remotely close to the mark..

Personally I believe there's still a good flush to come still. It's the timing that's always tricky

Was just wondering about the seemingly erratic behavior so far..but I guess the bears get to sleep in, due to having made so many pips lately and won't start the selling until the alarm clock rings

IS THE DOWN GJ CORRLATION STILL ALIVE AND KICKING OR IS IT NO LONGER VALID ???? SEEMS TO BE LOSING ITS TICK BY TICK CORRELATION THAT IT HAD IN THE PAST???
  • #177
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:53pm Feb 7, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Okay, just wondering..

2:30pm USD Unemployment Claims
http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...etail_star.gif 356K 340K 378Khttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...us_revised.gif

higher unemployment...

4:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...etail_star.gif -1.5% -1.0% -3.0%

worse home sales AND a revision LOWER of prior..


And I am seeing the DJI rally over 50 pips from opening levels.

Have we reached the "yea yea yea, we already know, we're buying anyway" point or am I missing something here?

From the chart - it's just that price does not want to go below last week's low, because, well, that'd be bad, but going by these FA thingies, shouldn't this kind of go differently?
Don't forget retailers' sales going down the toilet also. DJI rallies. USD/JPY flies off the 106.00 launchpad. EUR/USD tanks on a "dovish" Trichet (although he wasn't really that dovish). Yeah it's time to retire for the week with my old friend Jack (Daniel's, that is).
  • #178
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:23pm Feb 7, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting fierceman
Don't forget retailers' sales going down the toilet also. DJI rallies. USD/JPY flies off the 106.00 launchpad. EUR/USD tanks on a "dovish" Trichet (although he wasn't really that dovish). Yeah it's time to retire for the week with my old friend Jack (Daniel's, that is).

If we don't get a "closing hours" selloff(may have begun 20 minutes ago) past today's lows, with USDJPY pinning below 108 then I will strongly consider starting drinking, too(haven't touched a drop of alcohol in my life)

Feel a bit like the last one still standing after the music went out, going "Huh? But, er, things are sposed to be acting like reality was showing BAD?"

Merlin, where's your 100% fundamentals trader, I need to ask him what on earth I am missing from this picture
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #179
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:26pm Feb 7, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting SeekingLight
If we don't get a "closing hours" selloff(may have begun 20 minutes ago) past today's lows, with USDJPY pinning below 108 then I will strongly consider starting drinking, too(haven't touched a drop of alcohol in my life)

Feel a bit like the last one still standing after the music went out, going "Huh? But, er, things are sposed to be acting like reality was showing BAD?"

Merlin, where's your 100% fundamentals trader, I need to ask him what on earth I am missing from this picture

Sl look at gj slosely at weekly monthly s/r and u will see... check my post at auslancos thread
  • #180
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:29pm Feb 7, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting dagoods
IS THE DOWN GJ CORRLATION STILL ALIVE AND KICKING OR IS IT NO LONGER VALID ???? SEEMS TO BE LOSING ITS TICK BY TICK CORRELATION THAT IT HAD IN THE PAST???
Looks like it's still alive. The problem is that GJ usually go ahead of the NY session, inline with Dow futures.

And more and more often morning futures are telling little about the session per se, so any position on carry trades are covered. See how UJ can't make it out of the 106 hurdle, as well as the amount of HUGE whipsaws (H4 and D1).

For instance: dow is now at +82, about 1.5 hour to go. Given recent history, can easily close at +200 or -150 still today.

How can you take a position with these crazy 50/50 chances?
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