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Daily Analysis of Majors

  • #21
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:50am Feb 7, 2008 6:50am
So the EURUSD hit a buy zone. If you decide to buy it based on your own analysis, your target would be 4830 at this time because 4646 was taken out earlier in the session. (A nice short trade).

If it settles below 4572 and you sell, then your target is 4341.

Be careful today, and be willing to reverse if necessary. I use 60m bars and watch the close usually.
  • #22
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:49am Feb 7, 2008 7:49am
bro im wondering where is the best Stop loss to be placed.
is the yesterday closing price be a Stop loss or the stop loss is placed based on our own risk.
  • #23
  • Feb 7, 2008 8:06am Feb 7, 2008 8:06am
Your risk should be above/below a key level. The trick is to get positioned near the level so that when you reverse, your stop loss is manageable. I can not answer this question for YOU. This is your job depending on your risk tolerance.

Accept taking smaller losses near a key level, knowing that your profit from the directional move will be greater.
  • #24
  • Edited 8:25am Feb 7, 2008 8:10am | Edited 8:25am
One thing (concerning positioning and risk) that I would urge you to watch.

When price is surging through a key level, many larger players and market makers will attempt to position on the surge. Hoping that price will reverse. If not they take their loss on the wrong side.

Confusing probably, but like this morning when the EURUSD surged down through 4572, my guess is many were postioning long below this level. They will hope that demand turns price and traders will be caught short. Just be careful when setting up. In my opinion, if your risk tolerance is not large it is best to wait for price to "settle" below or above a level and then set up.


You have to think like a trader, not like the rest of the herd.


In the scenario above, once the EURO slammed into 4572, how do you think traders were positioned. Look at a chart and you will see that they were likely positioned long here. Otherwise, they would have been stopped out by now. So when price hit this level, there was selling so those old traders could get out of their longs (which were wrong). Naturally, you will see a surge down here, however if price retakes the level and continues up, then it tells you that this was in fact a solid level for buying. If price continues down from this level, then you know that is is good point to record for selling.

Not rocket science, but most do not think this way. It is a clue in how I determine levels as time passes. It is not easy work to keep track of it all, but it is worth it. You have to put in the effort.
  • #25
  • Feb 7, 2008 8:27am Feb 7, 2008 8:27am
i think thats what happened in USDJPY right now bro 106.24 was taken again from downside.its sideways again now. how boring.

waiting for 106.70/74 to be taken out to setting longs. or if its not taken ill set a shorts again.

Quoting DownRiverTrader
One thing (concerning positioning and risk) that I would urge you to watch.

When price is surging through a key level, many larger players and market makers will attempt to position on the surge. Hoping that price will reverse. If not they take their loss on the wrong side.

Confusing probably, but like this morning when the EURUSD surged down through 4572, my guess is many were postioning long below this level. They will hope that demand turns price and traders will be caught short. Just be careful when setting up. In my opinion, if your risk tolerance is not large it is best to wait for price to "settle" below or above a level and then set up.


You have to think like a trader, not like the rest of the herd.


In the scenario above, once the EURO slammed into 4572, how do you think traders were positioned. Look at a chart and you will see that they were likely positioned long here. Otherwise, they would have been stopped out by now. So when price hit this level, there was selling so those old traders could get out of their longs (which were wrong). Naturally, you will see a surge down here, however if price retakes the level and continues up, then it tells you that this was in fact a solid level for buying. If price continues down from this level, then you know that is is good point to record for selling.

Not rocket science, but most do not think this way.
  • #26
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:33pm Feb 7, 2008 6:33pm
Here are today's numbers.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Bridge Levels 2-8-2008.pdf   15 KB | 540 downloads
  • #27
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:37pm Feb 7, 2008 6:37pm
USDJPY for now

108.10

107.72 Up

107.42

107.07 Down

106.53

105.42

bro check this up if theres something wrong plz correct me.
  • #28
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:43pm Feb 7, 2008 6:43pm
These numbers are off. I just posted the update so you can see what I have.
  • #29
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:46pm Feb 7, 2008 6:46pm
bro if we are in uptrend then we only calculate the downtrend risk right?
but why the 106.81 not 106.93 ?
  • #30
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:50pm Feb 7, 2008 6:50pm
106.93 was resolved in todays session. Price traded through it.

While these are risk levels, remember all the levels are continuation or reversal levels. The blue numbers are simply the closing price for reference.
  • #31
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:53pm Feb 7, 2008 6:53pm
The best way to think of it is like this...

if the current price is trading above a level, you are bullish to the next level.

if the current price is trading below a level, you are bearish to the next level.

Try to position as close to a level as possible.
  • #32
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:55pm Feb 7, 2008 6:55pm
ah yes bro when i see it on my 1 hour chart i got that number but differ few pips my number 106.85 maybe this was caused by spread or something else.
  • #33
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:59pm Feb 7, 2008 6:59pm
Please correct me Sir this is what i have understood: if 1hr candle close above 1.4494 then we should be bullish towards 1.4830 (euro/usd) and if this hrly candle close above 1.9417 then we should expect price to go towards 1.9774 (gbp/usd)? i am sorry if i hv misunderstood it.
regards
Quoting DownRiverTrader
The best way to think of it is like this...

if the current price is trading above a level, you are bullish to the next level.

if the current price is trading below a level, you are bearish to the next level.

Try to position as close to a level as possible.
  • #34
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:00pm Feb 7, 2008 7:00pm
nice explanation this open many thing to setting up my trade thanks man.
ill try to make better number plz correct me if next time number are wrong.
cuz im trying to study this deeply.

Quoting DownRiverTrader
The best way to think of it is like this...

if the current price is trading above a level, you are bullish to the next level.

if the current price is trading below a level, you are bearish to the next level.

Try to position as close to a level as possible.
  • #35
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:04pm Feb 7, 2008 7:04pm
yes its like that for more information ask bro DRT hes the expert

Quoting kenneith
Please correct me Sir this is what i have understood: if 1hr candle close above 1.4494 then we should be bullish towards 1.4830 (euro/usd) and if this hrly candle close above 1.9417 then we should expect price to go towards 1.9774 (gbp/usd)? i am sorry if i hv misunderstood it.
regards
  • #36
  • Feb 7, 2008 10:44pm Feb 7, 2008 10:44pm
agung85,

Would it please be possible to let one know where to look for "time and sales" in the futures market? DRT has really let on to something intriguing, as well as interesting. Anyway, I'd really like to learn how to arrive at these price levels. Thanks.
  • #37
  • Feb 8, 2008 4:13am Feb 8, 2008 4:13am
try search google or download a future platform. to find the values u can read at the PDF files.

Quoting Rialto
agung85,

Would it please be possible to let one know where to look for "time and sales" in the futures market? DRT has really let on to something intriguing, as well as interesting. Anyway, I'd really like to learn how to arrive at these price levels. Thanks.
  • #38
  • Feb 8, 2008 6:10am Feb 8, 2008 6:10am
Thank you.
  • #39
  • Edited 7:35am Feb 8, 2008 7:24am | Edited 7:35am
Long EURUSD @ 4490. Target for now is 4830.

Will reverse if warranted.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...EURUSD%201.PNG
  • #40
  • Feb 8, 2008 9:16am Feb 8, 2008 9:16am
Hopefully this thread gave you some new ideas or helped with existing ones. I will not be posting anymore updates. I am scaling back on currency positions this year and will be devoting most of my time to positioning for the biggest bull market in US equities ever.

Take care and good luck.
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