Great Question, About Trade probabilities and MM

I just had a discussion with a professional trader, about systems, he told me that a system that wins 90% of the times, is better than a system that wins 60% of the times and makes the double of the profits of the one that wins 90% of the times, He said that it is because of statistics and probabilities, that in worst scenario the 90% can fall to 80% or 70%, and the 60% can fall to 50% or 40% for me its all the same thing because both of them will decrease in profits and increase in losses, he also says that to gain more money in the 90% system he just has to increase the number of lots, but for the 60% system isn't the same thing? if increase lot size, drawdown will get bigger, as profits also, not saying that the 50% is better than the 90% or vice versa , because in all of them the profits will decrease.

He also says that because the most important thing Is to "not lose money", for sure it is better not to lose money, I have no doubts on that.

My conclusion, is that he may be right, that to lose 10% and win 90% is better, than losing 40% and wining 60%, but does that prove that the 60% system is not good because of a bigger drawdown? I don't think so, if drawdown is controlled by MM that is the case.


PS. All of this was because my system had 5 losses in a Row last week, and the maximum in the past was 4.

PSS. Who can say that a system with 90% win ratio, cant have 6 or 8 losses in a row, because he never did that in the past?

Mistake in Poll,

the correct 1 option is:

Win 90% of times and win half of the profits of the option 2

Your friend is right. Both scenarios have the same expected payoff per trade, so there won't be any major differences in long-term profits. But having a 90% hit rate will make drawdowns less severe.

It all depends on one's nature and risk appetite.

At the end of the day, look at your bank balance and see what looks healthier!