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  • #101
  • Feb 4, 2008 9:39pm Feb 4, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting youalreadykn
We hit the low end of the range today and briefly broke through. I'm in at 1.6450, but there is risk to the downside if this pair stays around 1.65 through Tuesday so keeping S/L at 1.6300. AUD interest rate statement on Wednesday could spike this down around 100 pips if there is a rate hike. If they keep the rate unchanged, we're probably looking at a small spike.

Also of note, if it holds below this Fib support, the 50% Fib line is at 1.6325 which is the next support level.
I moved S/L down to 1.61 through the weekend (had to because of spread hike in OANDA) and left it there.

The 1.6325 was a pivot through Monday and since we're still above it after confirmation of the AUD rate hike, I feel more confident in the direction being up for this pair in the short-mid term.

Both EUR/AUD and AUD/JPY overshot where I thought they would go, but seems that's because the FX market didn't react to equities today. I don't think carries can withstand another down day in equities tomorrow and the upside in AUD seems exhausted.
  • #102
  • Feb 4, 2008 9:43pm Feb 4, 2008 9:43pm
Quoting acidguy
hahahah they raised but signaled concerns over the economy so aussie was soldoff.

what a crazy market.

maybe they raised 25 now but will cut 75bp in the next meeting as subprime virus start to bit
Everything I saw was about inflation concerns, so strange that the market sold off that quickly. I wonder how much was just profit taking.
  • #103
  • Feb 4, 2008 9:53pm Feb 4, 2008 9:53pm
Inflation and growth are still pushing the envelope down under. There really is no clear signal yet that this is the end of the rate hike cycle. NZ employment figures will be next but all signs are pointing to a tight labor market there. I'll stay long until there is a good reason not to.

Technically both currencies are on the edge vs the USD and have already broken out vs the Conti's. Things might be getting interesting....
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #104
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:04pm Feb 4, 2008 10:04pm
The current situation with the Aussie and Kiwi has me thinking about the vast differences between the currency markets and any other market. Viewpoints change so incredibly quickly in this market it can sometimes make a trader feel crazy.

I have an opinion, I have my supporting data, I have my technical reasons..Why can't I stay true to viewpoint?? Well basically, this is not a rational market in many many ways. Also there are numerous factors that influence currency pairs from one session to the next. These factors can cost you hundreds of pips before you can say.."This is Crud".

The best way I've found to handle this is

1. Always have a level that you get out of the position.

2. There are three opinions about a pair....Bull, Bear and I DONT KNOW.

3. Be nimble and focus on profits, not on "being right"

Comments welcome.....
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #105
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:29pm Feb 4, 2008 10:29pm
The land down under is being sucked into the Chinese sphere. This is a land of raging growth and interest rates. Add to that the fact that we are only at the beginning of the Sovereign Wealth Funds maneuvering for control of resources. Should be strong demand for the Aussie going forward.
  • #106
  • Feb 5, 2008 4:37am Feb 5, 2008 4:37am
Well, this is USD strength across the board.

Another interesting development = Weak yen not helping the commod's.

Stay tuned...I know I will be
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #107
  • Feb 5, 2008 5:54am Feb 5, 2008 5:54am
EUR weakness for the last couple of days has taken the EUR/AUD pair below the 1.6325 targeted support. Closed half of the EUR/AUD position at 1.6250 and will wait and see what happens with the interest rate decision. Further weakness seen to next support at 1.6125 and position is shifted firmly to AUD long-term on a sustained break of 1.6325.
  • #108
  • Feb 5, 2008 12:16pm Feb 5, 2008 12:16pm
From last nights usd/jpy break higher a few things have unfolded.

1. The market was not interested in pushing the kiwi & aussie move higher.
This could be spun for any reason. Technically it was at an inflection (reversal) point. Fundamentally there is too much uncertainity warranting risk aversion.

2. When there was no follow thru after the yen popped. I closed out my possies for a small loss (whipsawed on the kiwi for the third time...arg) and went flat on the commod's. To me the price action was clearly saying we have every reason to go higher and we chose not to.

3. Now that US stocks are getting a thrashing the market jumps onto a risk aversion theme. This is a turbulent and difficult market where SOMETIMES factors get recognized. Makes for uncertain and very tenuous trading in the commod's (The conti's are retracing nicely tho. )

But in hindsight, all the kiwi did was test the upper limits of the channel and reverse. The aussie tested the upper shoulder of an inverted H & S and reversed. Simple right? Hardly.

I still am bullish on Usd/jpy for a test of 110/111 this month BUT I am no longer sure that it will help the commod's.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #109
  • Feb 6, 2008 4:04pm Feb 6, 2008 4:04pm
NZ employment data came in strong as I figured. Time to close the scalps and watch the battle YIELDS vs RISK
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #110
  • Feb 6, 2008 4:36pm Feb 6, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting TexasforEX
NZ employment data came in strong as I figured. Time to close the scalps and watch the battle YIELDS vs RISK
High risk outweighs yield. The only time yield wins is in a low risk environment.

As for USD/JPY at 110, I doubt we see that this month or next but we'll find out. There is still a ton of room to the downside in carries and equities and it will take some outstanding news to turn that tide in the opposite direction.

Now to slap myself in the head for closing mini Dow shorts two times in the last week before huge selloffs.
  • #111
  • Feb 6, 2008 8:52pm Feb 6, 2008 8:52pm
Quoting youalreadykn
High risk outweighs yield. The only time yield wins is in a low risk environment.

As for USD/JPY at 110, I doubt we see that this month or next but we'll find out. There is still a ton of room to the downside in carries and equities and it will take some outstanding news to turn that tide in the opposite direction.

Now to slap myself in the head for closing mini Dow shorts two times in the last week before huge selloffs.
First off I'm not long usd/jpy until a daily close over 107.3 (as stated above)

Second, the rally will be the last best chance to short for the forseeable future, IMO

"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #112
  • Feb 7, 2008 11:20am Feb 7, 2008 11:20am
Quoting youalreadykn
EUR weakness for the last couple of days has taken the EUR/AUD pair below the 1.6325 targeted support. Closed half of the EUR/AUD position at 1.6250 and will wait and see what happens with the interest rate decision. Further weakness seen to next support at 1.6125 and position is shifted firmly to AUD long-term on a sustained break of 1.6325.
1.6125 is almost here, but the market's reaction to Trichet was absurd. There's no way you can justify EUR dropping more than GBP on a day where they held rates.
  • #113
  • Feb 7, 2008 11:22am Feb 7, 2008 11:22am
Also, while on the topic of commodity currencies... the Norwegian Krone and South African Rand have been treated like crap in 2008. I wonder when the selloff of those two are going to end.
  • #114
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:49pm Feb 7, 2008 6:49pm
Quoting youalreadykn
1.6125 is almost here, but the market's reaction to Trichet was absurd. There's no way you can justify EUR dropping more than GBP on a day where they held rates.

The euro sell off was justified because of the major shift in sentiment IMO. BOE already had acknoledged growth issues where as ECB was still holding to the mantra of fighting inflation. Thoughts?
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #115
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:53pm Feb 7, 2008 6:53pm
Quoting TexasforEX
The weekly yen chart is developing some key reversal patterns. A long legged doji was followed by harami cross. A daily close above 107.30 will be very negative for the yen and should support the commod's.
I'm focusing on the yen crosses now. I don't follow the eur/jpy as closely as the gbp/jpy BUT the beast (gbp/jpy) is showing numerous signs of a rally.

IMO 213.5 is up soon and 217/218 will be next and prob the end of the rally and will be a GREAT level to LOAD LOAD LOAD up on sells.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #116
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:09pm Feb 7, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting TexasforEX
The euro sell off was justified because of the major shift in sentiment IMO. BOE already had acknoledged growth issues where as ECB was still holding to the mantra of fighting inflation. Thoughts?
ECB has held lower rates than BOE and the Fed, so they can afford to maintain the stance against inflation instead of against economic slowdown. I heard somewhere today that there is a growing market expectation for 100bps to come off the EUR interest rate this year, which is quite absurd to me. We'll see what happens, but this reminds me a lot of when GBP was way oversold about a month ago due to the same kind of sentiment shift and rebounded strong against all pairs suddenly when the selloff frenzy ended and everyone returned to their senses. This remains to be seen for EUR, but I have to believe it's approaching some levels seen as attractive by big money.

Also, I believe the selloff was justified and expected it but the strength of the selloff is what surprised me.
  • #117
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:11pm Feb 7, 2008 7:11pm
Eur/Aud has lost quite a bit as well.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #118
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:14pm Feb 7, 2008 7:14pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I'm focusing on the yen crosses now. I don't follow the eur/jpy as closely as the gbp/jpy BUT the beast (gbp/jpy) is showing numerous signs of a rally.

IMO 213.5 is up soon and 217/218 will be next and prob the end of the rally and will be a GREAT level to LOAD LOAD LOAD up on sells.
If we see 217.45 anytime in the near future before equities reach new lows and/or VIX goes past 35, I'll be drooling at the thought of shorts. Can't wait to see what happens, but I'm not expecting JPY pairs to rise that high soon since it would have to coincide with an equivalent rise in equities and that means Dow back to around 13500 by my estimates.

Do you think we're in a fresh rally mode after today?
  • #119
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:18pm Feb 7, 2008 7:18pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Eur/Aud has lost quite a bit as well.
Broke out of it's trading range to the downside. It tested the 61.8 Fib today (1.6125-1.6130) and failed to break through, but it was already down 200 pips on the day so a break was expected. Beyond 1.6125 opens up a HUGE downside to 1.55 on my charts, so it will be interesting to see how the pair moves in the next few trading sessions.
  • #120
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:28pm Feb 7, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting youalreadykn
If we see 217.45 anytime in the near future before equities reach new lows and/or VIX goes past 35, I'll be drooling at the thought of shorts. Can't wait to see what happens, but I'm not expecting JPY pairs to rise that high soon since it would have to coincide with an equivalent rise in equities and that means Dow back to around 13500 by my estimates.

Do you think we're in a fresh rally mode after today?

Usd/jpy is at the beginning potentially of a rally. The beast is not yet, I think it just bottomed and will prob flatten out a bit. It could just reverse into a rally but it isn't justified yet by my technical analysis.

And I hear you about the equities as well. Intermarket wise it's a stretch but my TA on the beast is pointing to that area for a top.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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