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GBP/JPY for QQE Traders!

  • #1,081
  • Feb 4, 2008 11:01am Feb 4, 2008 11:01am
too early to tell but I'm going down. will wait
All the best things in life are free.
  • #1,082
  • Feb 4, 2008 1:37pm Feb 4, 2008 1:37pm
Is anyone else noticing some nice bearish signs? Looks like we're finally getting out of the range between the pivot and the 1hr 100sma. I see a 15M close or two below the NY daily pivot. The Dow is negative by about 90, and that could easily carry over to the Asian markets. The 1hr QQE5 has crossed bearish.

NY session isn't the best time for taking 15min strategies. But this one might be worth a shot . . .
  • #1,083
  • Feb 4, 2008 1:51pm Feb 4, 2008 1:51pm
hi guys!
I was short at 210.67, and finally closed my position 40 pips higher because I was afraid it might go up further... and now it's down again... quite frustrated right now!
Love your system Kujo, and I should really just look at what my graphs say instead of listening to others! That's my brand new lesson! I read so much on different threads about the beast that I was not sure anymore about my choice!

I don't know if you guys remember (especially Kujo and Pips Cruiser) but I talked about a scalping strategy last week from another Auslanco's thread, using bollinger bands, RSI and stoch: not that good finally! I mean on the M5 TF it's not really good, unless you're in a ranging market in my point of view (since the BB are quite flat, so prices are just bumping into the channels, going up and down perfectly).
But besides that, it can be of use to target prices on the H1 TF, so it could be good combined with Kujo's strategy... I'll have a look at it this week.

I'm still on my stupid 40 pips loss... it's all about confidence !
  • #1,084
  • Feb 4, 2008 2:05pm Feb 4, 2008 2:05pm
The only problem right now with GY is its ranging feature! Its ADX on the H1 TF is around 20 (but 26 on H4 TF)... which is not defining a trending market at all. It might be dangereous to enter trades... the market is still on last week's news, and waiting for the important ones especially on thursday for GBP: Industrial Production m/m and Intereste Rate statement...
We'll have to be cautious with levels of support and resistance.
Do you guys have the same Fibo retracement levels (cf graph) ? (H4 TF graph)
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  • #1,085
  • Feb 4, 2008 2:09pm Feb 4, 2008 2:09pm
The usual risk with this time of day is that we might still be in a ranging mode, but just gradually pushing the range lower. Even if it proves profitable in the end, it could be a long drawn out trade. Tough call. In the end everyone just has to trade what they see, and what they're comfortable with. Two people can take the exact same trade, and one can win and one can lose, because of variations in how they execute it and how they wait it out.
  • #1,086
  • Feb 4, 2008 2:27pm Feb 4, 2008 2:27pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
The usual risk with this time of day is that we might still be in a ranging mode, but just gradually pushing the range lower. Even if it proves profitable in the end, it could be a long drawn out trade. Tough call. In the end everyone just has to trade what they see, and what they're comfortable with. Two people can take the exact same trade, and one can win and one can lose, because of variations in how they execute it and how they wait it out.
You're full of wisdom my dear PP
I agree with you... I just wanna be the one who'll win this very same trade
  • #1,087
  • Feb 4, 2008 4:58pm Feb 4, 2008 4:58pm
Michi,

for sure, don't make trade calls by what others say.
Take what others say and look at it. Examine your charts.
Make sure you see what they see in the charts, before making any calls.

I also use Fibs, Bollinger Bands, etc on longer TFs to try to forsee where the pairs are going.
That's a great way to make sure you trading with the trend, to not get caught off guard.

I hope we start our move in a direction with Tokyo opening soon.
Man, I hate being in the PST time zone, as I have to stay up to ungodly hours to make good trades......

kj
  • #1,088
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:02pm Feb 4, 2008 5:02pm
michi,

Also, one other thing to think about before taking a loss.

Look around the price area you are at.

Say you're short at 211.
Price moves up to 211.75. You are getting nervous because you're 75 pips negative..... if you hit 100, you'll eat $300 say.

It starts to retrace back down a bit but then starts to shoot up again.

You bail at 211.80 to cut your loses.

BUT, 211.93 is a strong S/R level.
It touches....it pushes past, but never closes above.
Now, it starts falling back down..... you're good to go now.....

Before taking the loss, just be very aware of what the S/R levels are around the current price and around your SL.

I've been hosed in losses/negative pippage, because of just a few pips and not knowing I was just around an S/R point.

One more thing to think about when making YOUR trade calls
  • #1,089
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:09pm Feb 4, 2008 5:09pm
Michi,

take your 4H chart.

draw an upper TL down the last three lower highs.
Do the same off the lower lows.

We have a nice downward channel on the 4H.

QQE is crossed down and Stoch is about to cross down on the 4H.
They are crossed down on the 30m and 1H as well.

We break below the DP, good.
We get a close below the 4H Gann, done deal.

I'd say we see somewhere in the mid 208s tonight sometime.
if it gets alot of steam, we could see 205 by tomorrow night.

Just my judgment call.
  • #1,090
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:14pm Feb 4, 2008 5:14pm
Kujo what would be an ideal STOCH setting in your opinion? I havce 12,3,3
  • #1,091
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:18pm Feb 4, 2008 5:18pm
Hey Mister Kujo !

Thanks for your analysis and your help !
Yes I try to look at S/R levels, but I just use Fibo retracement to define them. The thing is: I don't know how to use Gann, and how to compute it well in my graphs. As far as I know, it's a kind of Fibo, but I don't really know from where to where to draw it...
Regarding your TLs: I'm using the DeMark Trendline that was posted on the other Auslanco's thread we are both part of, is that the same ?
  • #1,092
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:29pm Feb 4, 2008 5:29pm
Quoting kujo17

QQE is crossed down and Stoch is about to cross down on the 4H.
They are crossed down on the 30m and 1H as well.
How come QQE crossed up on the H4 TF with me ?
And my Stoch M30 is not so far from crossing back up...
Can you post your graphs please K ?
  • #1,093
  • Edited 5:53pm Feb 4, 2008 5:29pm | Edited 5:53pm
Quoting kujo17
Michi,

take your 4H chart.

draw an upper TL down the last three lower highs.
Do the same off the lower lows.

We have a nice downward channel on the 4H.

QQE is crossed down and Stoch is about to cross down on the 4H.
They are crossed down on the 30m and 1H as well.

We break below the DP, good.
We get a close below the 4H Gann, done deal.

I'd say we see somewhere in the mid 208s tonight sometime.
if it gets alot of steam, we could see 205 by tomorrow night.

Just my judgment call.
My 4HR QQE is UP and the 1HR QQE looks like it is turning UP.
Are my settings wrong?
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  • #1,094
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:48pm Feb 4, 2008 5:48pm
sorry guys
4H QQE 5 is crossed up.
I just did a fresh install of XP and when redoing my charts, it was left on QQE60 on the 4H.
I think that's too smoothed........obviously.

But, my 1H QQE5 and ZL Stochs are both down.
  • #1,095
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:51pm Feb 4, 2008 5:51pm
30M stoch is close to crossing up. but there is 11 mins left on the bar.
don't worry until it closes.

I'm not saing a retrace back up to 210.80-211 isn't going to happen.

I'm just sitting on my shorts.
TP of 208.50 for now.

Will re-asses if things change.
  • #1,096
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:52pm Feb 4, 2008 5:52pm
its will go up to 215 this week......good luck guys........
  • #1,097
  • Feb 4, 2008 6:08pm Feb 4, 2008 6:08pm
Quoting peekaboo
its will go up to 215 this week......good luck guys........
No further explanation: 215 like that ?!
It would be nice to have an analysis of the pair to better understand your way of thinking...
  • #1,098
  • Edited 7:22pm Feb 4, 2008 6:22pm | Edited 7:22pm
Another thing to keep in mind is the CCI14 divergence on the daily charts of the crosses.
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  • #1,099
  • Feb 4, 2008 9:49pm Feb 4, 2008 9:49pm
its base on what i see from the graph mr.michi.......& SHI channel in tf4h.....
  • #1,100
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:45pm Feb 4, 2008 10:45pm
It's been on range since 6 hours ago. I did't want to be part of it when it's still waiting for the GBP news release. It hurts hurts when u are in and it can't really decide on a specific direction. since it delivered a nice 75 pips before going crazy, if you weren't greedy I assume you are still safe. but if you were I'm really sorry. Better luck next time.

time for the fundamentals. Where are we going?
All the best things in life are free.
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