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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,281
  • Edited 1:30pm Feb 4, 2008 1:14pm | Edited 1:30pm
Quoting Northpro
I do it:
Rescue 1: 1 scout+2=3(total 3)...-30 pips displaced 10 pips to B/E
Rescue 2: 3x3=9(total 12)...another -30 pips (-120combined) 10pips to B/E
Rescue 3: 12x5=60(total 72)..another -30pips(-480combined) 7pips to B/E.
Can you check Rescue 2 to see if you calculated correctly?

When I calculated it, by only adding 3 rescue troops to rescue 3 troopers in trouble at approx. 30 pips away, that would make your basis 15 pips from break even. Here's how I calculated it (lol, I told you I'm not a math geek, so please double-check if mine is correct):

3 @ 158.50 + 3 @ 158.80 = 158.65 (15 pips)

15 pips may be a little too far for comfort, so if you are well capitalizied, might be better to enter:

3 @ 158.50 + 6 @ 158.80 = 158.70 (10 pips)

Unfortunately, with 9 men in at 2nd rescue that would make Rescue #3 needing a heck of a lot of troops to bring basis to 10 or less pips away from break even. (* edited - Please read my next post below, as I added a comment about this)

This is where being well capitalized definitely has it's advantages, lol.

Quoting Northpro
Ok, I know what your thinking on the 3rd rescue..me too actually, but believe it or not..I plan my MM around this, the point being if it gets this bad I want to be extremely aggressive and just get out NOW to stay below my max % exposure....
LOL, hey no predictions remember? How do you know what I am thinking, lol? :

Actually, if you're well capitalized with enough troops in your kingdom to conduct the most optimum rescue missions, that would makes a big difference, and I have said before that I would be more aggressive in my input of troops (in certain places and certain circumstances again depending on how the dance is playing out for me) if I had a larger kingdom, lol. So, your wanting to bring the basis down by 7 pips for the 3rd rescue attempt would not be unreasonable (again, granted you have the capital/resources to do so).

However, like you, I've never needed to carry out a Rescue #3, so that's where timing and getting good at feeling the dance makes a huge difference on successful trades!

Quoting Northpro
sorry for the full lot example, that's just what I use.
No need to apologize, everything is relative and works in ratios, so in essence even those with smaller kingdoms can use the same calculations just in smaller increments.

Quoting Northpro
I can completely agree with you that you want to get out of the rescue asap, as this can be costly on the troop dispatching.
Yes, but again, like you mentioned (and what fti has been saying) being nimble is really an asset, cuz there are times you can turn a rescue around and make a LOT of pips from it (lol, I have to confess, one of my large pip wins was from a rescued trade, hehe ).
  • #1,282
  • Feb 4, 2008 1:16pm Feb 4, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting fti
As I await to discover my contradictions, I will answer this question of yours.

Yes they are compounded variations of the bar chart and candlebar patterns.
The analysis takes into account the time, volatility and price bar relationships, which are normally not considered by many textbook analyst. The differing discriptions of the change in the volatility and behavioral extensions prompts to the possible robustness of the existing pattern and its possible mutations to other patterns.

If you like, he's one example.
In the formation of a downward pointing flag,
what is the signifivcance of aan outside bar key reversal signify, when that happens at the tip turn of the flag?
What is the robustness of the pattern when such is detected?
What is the possibility that what you are looking at is not a downward pointing flag but a pre-curser to another formation?
Is the market still to be considered bearish?
What is the significance of the key reversal bar to the whole pattern?
Is it continuation pattern or is it a reversal pattern?
Again what is the significance if the outside key reversal on a downward pointing flag, if the bar that marked the support was a short bar in relations to the key reversal?
Is this reversal or continuation?

This is what I call analysis.
So all you may see is a downward pointing flag , right?
But have you considered that after you have concluded of the pattern formed , that it may mutate over time and revert to some other formation instead?
This is only at basic levels of pattern formations, there's lots more where that comes from. Therefore my dealing room, read of the shape and weighting of the compound formations.

I hope this highlights that you must go indepth study of the possible formations, not only the classic patterns that occurs. Incidentally, are you aware of how you determine if your patterns have been invalidated? I had in much earlier posting tried to highlight this issue for your education. Seems you didn't understand.

regards

Sorry fti, I do not know what an outside bar key reversal is. So can you recommend any books that explain this method of analysis? What you have mentioned above is exactly what I have been asking for a while. It is the missing piece for me.

With regard to the patterns I use, this knowledge was obtained from "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends 8th Ed." by Edwards and Magee. Price pattern invalidation was not really an issue as entry was determined at pattern confirmation. So if the pattern was ever invalidated then that's fine as entry would not have occured. Invalidation could be determined after entry and one would presumably exit.
  • #1,283
  • Feb 4, 2008 1:24pm Feb 4, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting NorthPro
Rescue 2: 3x3=9(total 12)...another -30 pips (-120combined) 10pips to B/E


Oh, Northpro, I just reread your calculations and I see you used a "x" (multiplication) sign, so I see now how you are calculating. Sorry, I was for some reason thinking + sign, lol.

However, you indicate 12 total troopers exposed after Rescue 2 though, so your math and my math still doesn't come out for 10 pips to break even, lol.
  • #1,284
  • Feb 4, 2008 1:42pm Feb 4, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting leighsww
Can you check Rescue 2 to see if you calculated correctly?

When I calculated it, by only adding 3 rescue troops to rescue 3 troopers in trouble at approx. 30 pips away, that would make your basis 15 pips from break even. Here's how I calculated it (lol, I told you I'm not a math geek, so please double-check if mine is correct):

3 @ 158.50 + 3 @ 158.80 = 158.65 (15 pips)

15 pips may be a little too far for comfort, so if you are well capitalizied, might be better to enter:

3 @ 158.50 + 6 @ 158.80 = 158.70 (10 pips)

Unfortunately, with 9 men in at 2nd rescue that would make Rescue #3 needing a heck of a lot of troops to bring basis to 10 or less pips away from break even.

This is where being well capitalized definitely has it's advantages, lol.
You missed it when I said compounding. I am not adding 3 troops in rescue 2, I am multiplying by 3: the 1 scout + 2 troops from rescue 1 (total of 3) 3 x 3=9 additional plus the 3 original for a total of 12.
so: Scout = -60
rescue 1 is 2 x -30= -60
Total = -120
Rescue 2 is 9 more for a total of 12: 120/12= 10pips to B/E

If it still goes against me another 30:
Scout= -90
rescue 1= 2x-60=-120
rescue 2= 9x-30=-270
total:-480
then:
Rescue 3 is 12x5=60 more for a total of 72 troops (scary eh!): 480/72= 7 pips to B/E

Compounding is aggressive, but like I said, I plan for this worst case scenario and I just want out quick at these levels. From here I can reassess and enter in the next direction based on PA with a scout and start the process all over again. Deeper pockets are a benefit. Hope this clears it up.

Looking forward to your attack scenario.

NP
  • #1,285
  • Edited 2:19pm Feb 4, 2008 2:07pm | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting Zoran
BUT, here is an example

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=882

You mention

"About Elliot,Please be aware that I use the elliot studies true to Elliots 1st published findings as in the compiled working papers of "The major works of R.N Elliot"

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=897

You mention

"Yes, there are many ways to mutate Elliots work, I stay to his original basics as My intent of its use is neither to sell books nor services."

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=902

I ask whether his original workings are worth reading... as you indicated that you use it. You then say

"Worth reading? Yes for general knowledge but NO for usable value."

Contradiction

You mention that you use elliot (is 1st post) but then suggest there is no usable value. What have I misunderstood? Why do you use it if there is no value?

PS. See they take too much time to find...
Hi Zoran,
I see that you have misunderstood.

Ok let me explain and see if you still hold that there is a contradiction.

In my course of studies in Technical analysis,
My foundation was in Dow Theory and basic chart patterns as I have explained. ( advance and compounding bar chart patterns.)
As in the learning curve of all Technical Analyst, Elliott and Gann Studies would become part of the research process.
In so far as Elliott studies, from indepth study and research ,the conclusion was that there is no major value encompassed within his findings, except for the fact that, not so unlike all wave pattern studies, he defined and developed the studies based on impluse and retacements. There are many schools of thought and variation, all promoting success in its predictive capacity. However in the professional forex circles, much of the Elliottians have not been able to secure , good repute as capable traders/ analyst by virtue of performance.

Nevertheless, Elliots definations of impluse and retracement waves have found favour in its capacity as side analysis to bar chart general waves counts.
For me, its value is found in the recognising of impulse waves, in all the chart time frames that I use.
The retrace waves have no analitical values by the general defination of it been in 3 wave patterns that can contract as well as expand. Further non usefulness is the extended defination that the retracements can take forms of zig zag and double zigzags or plateaus.. Not withstanding the fact of alternate counts on the initial counts. This only suggest for curve fitting exercise from hindsight therefore yielding no predictive value as was the selling point of this form of analysis.
Further, the wave progression of 3 impluse and conditions for the two retarce counts , displayed the same ambiguity to be of professional trading value. If you are a student of Elliot studies, its latter day introduction of the 7 wave counts further drove this research findings into further confusion and splitting the students in many camps of convictions.

However, Elliotts initial works of the impulse and retracement finding does have correlations with the basic bar pattern studies that impluse and retacements have synegistics properties in compounding patterns, ie the leg counts in the bar chart patterns. So in that sense, the initial Elliott wave definations are acceptable general analysis.

This the reasons for me suggesting that Elliot studies are within the scope of what I use. But because of superior analytical robustness and versatility in bar analysis compared to the Elliott wave predictive curve fits, it has superceded the Eilliott wave studies usefulness, for profession use. This being the reason that I would recommend it for general knowledge, than for its usefulness.

I hope you have a better understanding now.

regards
  • #1,286
  • Feb 4, 2008 2:25pm Feb 4, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting Northpro
so: Scout = -60
rescue 1 is 2 x -30= -60
Total = -120
Rescue 2 is 9 more for a total of 12: 120/12= 10pips to B/E
Northpro ... I still come out with different calculations than you, lol.

Rescue #1:

1 x 158.50 + 2 x 158.80 = 476.10 / 3 = 158.70 (reaveraged price)
158.80 - 158.70 = 10 pips from break even

Rescue #2:

3 x 158.70 + 6 x 159.00 = 1430.10 / 9 = 158.90 (reaveraged price)
159.00 - 158.90 = 10 pips from break even

In my calculations, I only come out with 9 total troops needing to be exposed for 10 pips to break even (not 12 troops).

Okay, my husband isn't here right now for me to ask him to double-check my calculations :, so can somebody else do so please? lol

If my calculations are correct, then if all you need are 6 troops to add to Rescue 2 to break even at 10 pips, then you are exposing more troops than necessary if all you want is 10 pips to break even.

With 12 total troops, you'd be at 7.5 pips to break even ...

3 x 158.70 + 9 x 159.00 = 1907.10 / 12 = 158.925
159.00 - 158.925 = 7.5 pips from break even

Is that what you preferred for Rescue #2, and putting 10 pips to B/E was a typo? Cuz, since you're capitalized well, then that's fine if you need a closer pip distance to B/E, but I just wanted to double-check and make sure what you're calculating.
  • #1,287
  • Feb 4, 2008 2:37pm Feb 4, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting leighsww
Northpro ... I still come out with different calculations than you, lol.

Rescue #1:

1 x 158.50 + 2 x 158.80 = 476.10 / 3 = 158.70 (reaveraged price)
158.80 - 158.70 = 10 pips from break even

Rescue #2:

3 x 158.70 + 6 x 159.00 = 1430.10 / 9 = 158.90 (reaveraged price)
159.00 - 158.90 = 10 pips from break even

In my calculations, I only come out with 9 total troops needing to be exposed for 10 pips to break even (not 12 troops).

Okay, my husband isn't here right now for me to ask him to double-check my calculations :, so can somebody else do so please? lol

If my calculations are correct, then if all you need are 6 troops to add to Rescue 2 to break even at 10 pips, then you are exposing more troops than necessary if all you want is 10 pips to break even.

With 12 total troops, you'd be at 7.5 pips to break even ...

3 x 158.70 + 9 x 159.00 = 1907.10 / 12 = 158.925
159.00 - 158.925 = 7.5 pips from break even

Is that what you preferred for Rescue #2, and putting 10 pips to B/E was a typo? Cuz, since you're capitalized well, then that's fine if you need a closer pip distance to B/E, but I just wanted to double-check and make sure what you're calculating.

No your math is fine Leighs. You are just approaching it differently than me...you are adding 30 to the average of 158.70 where I am adding 30 to the next level starting at 158.80+30=159.10. We are beating this up a bit and getting lost in the numbers. Regardless whether the PA is 10, 20, or 30 when a rescue takes place, this is just my sequence. I can see exactly how you approach it, where I get a little more aggressive the further it gets from me as a result of the compounding(x) progression. That's all.

NP
  • #1,288
  • Feb 4, 2008 2:46pm Feb 4, 2008 2:46pm
Just a question, hope fully this isn't answered somewhere earlier in the thread. But when you try a rescue attempt, i would take this as the mindset that price is going contrary to my entry and I'm trying to get out or reestablish a position in an opposite direction on the following retrace.

are you stacking/pyramiding at X # of pips or waiting for price to show an entry for the following correction?

hope this makes sense.
  • #1,289
  • Feb 4, 2008 2:56pm Feb 4, 2008 2:56pm
Quoting fti
The analysis is not a major issue, in so far as the Zoran is concerned. I am most worried for is experiment to induce the spiral position sizing into daily analysis. From professional perspective, I highly discourage that, as the risk to ruin is very high, due to non close monitoring of market possibilities.
fti, please just treat that as a thought. I was just thinking, if I went in on a longer term position at 1/5 the normal size and it went against me, say 100 pips, I could just go into intraday mode at full size to recover it. At full size, those 100 pips would convert to 20 pips (1/5) I would need to recover. That was my thought but as I said, it is parked. I'll just continue with your teachings.

aux, if you are following Nothpro's and Leigh's calculations, that explains the concept.
  • #1,290
  • Edited 3:15pm Feb 4, 2008 3:01pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting Northpro
you are adding 30 to the average of 158.70 where I am adding 30 to the next level starting at 158.80+30=159.10
Ah, I see now. Actually, you are right! I should have been adding 30 to the next level and NOT to the reaveraged price, so our "beating this up" (as you put it, lol) is NOT without merit, because I used the wrong values for my example and it was good that I was made aware of it. So, THANK YOU for correcting my mistake on that, Northpro!

Okay, with that said, here's my new calculations, lol ...

Rescue #2:

3 x 158.70 + 9 x 159.10 = 1908.00 / 12 = 159.00 (reaveraged price)
159.10 - 159.00 = 10 pips from break even

And Northpro would be spot-on to add 9 troops (for a total of 12 troops in the battlefield/trade) for 10 pips to B/E for the scenario given (oh, and I best mention again ... because he's got deep pockets )

* edited - And please don't worry people, cuz most likely you will never have to implement Rescue #2 or thereafter, if you learn to dance well and get your timing right (lol, thought I better reassure those who probably just fainted after seeing the numbers
  • #1,291
  • Feb 4, 2008 3:20pm Feb 4, 2008 3:20pm
Hi all,
I found this thread at the weekend and am still trying to get my head round it all. So far I have one question and would appreciate it if someone could explain how the rescue strategy differs from the Martingale.
I tried the Martingale last year and my pockets weren't deep enough - yep you guessed it I was wiped out.
  • #1,292
  • Edited 3:40pm Feb 4, 2008 3:27pm | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting Zoran
Sorry fti, I do not know what an outside bar key reversal is. So can you recommend any books that explain this method of analysis? What you have mentioned above is exactly what I have been asking for a while. It is the missing piece for me.

With regard to the patterns I use, this knowledge was obtained from "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends 8th Ed." by Edwards and Magee. Price pattern invalidation was not really an issue as entry was determined at pattern confirmation. So if the pattern was ever invalidated then that's fine as entry would not have occured. Invalidation could be determined after entry and one would presumably exit.
Hi Zoran,
I hope that you would not be insulted, but I ask because of the fact that you are reading compound bar chart formations without knowledge of even dual bar formations that I mentioned. How is this possible?
I hope that you will get your basic bar formations up to mark before attempting the MO,MM stuff. This is because the MO, MM can do nothing to you benefit, unless you either learn can read bar or candlestick charts at basic levels.

I list some source of info for your education,
these are old books and manuals, I am not current in the elementary levels info. If anyone can help with new editions or books , I would appreciate some assistance here.

reread thread #49, #51

Try,

Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts"
John R Hill
Commodity Research Institute, Ltd (1979)
-This one's good
---------------------------------------------------
Technical Analysis of Commodity Futures.,1980
Ken H Sharleen,
copyrights, Chartwatch,
Fulton House 1700,
345, North Canal Street.
Chicago , Illinois 60606,USA.
-This one's Ok
---------------------------------------------------
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide
by John J. Murphy - 1998
- This one has all sorts of relevant and irrelevant stuff.
--------------------------------------------------------
Technical Analysis Explained:
by Martin J. Pring
- This one has all sorts of relevant and irrelevant stuff.
----------------------------------------------------------

or goto
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

but site is very elementary, and beware of salemen.
regards
  • #1,293
  • Feb 4, 2008 4:09pm Feb 4, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran,
I hope that you would not be insulted, but I ask because of the fact that you are reading compound bar chart formations without knowledge of even dual bar formations that I mentioned. How is this possible?
Hi fti

No insult whatsoever. I have been asking for the analysis bit for quite some time as it was a missing link. MO and MM is reasonably clear but you could expand further. Please let me know if you have other recommendations to expand this area.

I have ordered the book from Amazon.com.

Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts
John R Hill

Seemed to be only 1 left (though not sure). However, seeing it's coming from the US, it could take a few weeks.

Now do you expect others to know this? I mean, I have my doubts that many here would know about compound formations in bar charts. Also, is there a big difference between bar and candle charts? They both display high, low, open and close (I prefer candles).
  • #1,294
  • Feb 4, 2008 4:09pm Feb 4, 2008 4:09pm
If I could interject a question or thought that might clear up a couple of questions I have, regretfully I just found this thread, wish I would have been there from the onset. And a sincere thank you to everyone for sharing their thoughts and knowledge on the subject.

Just my take on things, but when price action changes direction, call it the trend of the applicable time frame or what ever, entries that are attempted near the end can be caught on the wrong side. ( Going back, positions that are already in the money I would assume are paid for as in profit already taken and the remainders running for deeper targets and are not the question here).

But when and entry goes backwards, I would think that we have the next retrace to rescue our initial scout or position before the move going in the opposite direction continues further unless we are going into consolidation.

Imho, the rescue attempt should be from a level that is dictated by price action rather than a set value. Once price breaks in the opposite direction most of the time it looks back to an earlier support/resistance level trend line before resuming. This distance should be the determining factor for the resize and basically the attempt.

But this would be an attempt clear the book and enter in reverse basically a stop and reverse with out the stoploss of the initial entry

A few charts to visualize the idea, please note they quickly drawn to show the context of the idea and not to pinpoint any math or entry levels. The pair, periodicity have no matter, it’s just a chart.

Is this what you are trying to do?

Thanks,

a
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  • #1,295
  • Edited 4:32pm Feb 4, 2008 4:16pm | Edited 4:32pm
I made some homework and read most of this thread at the weekend. I am very glad we have older people who are willing to help us younger traders to make our trading profitable and as much as able to painless. I would like to thank FTI for all his thoughts and lessons and i hope AOW will help me through time in all areas (especially in taekwondo ). I understand his way of trading beacuse i was for many year chess player. Every position (read this 10 times) you how to analyze(questions, PA, FA, ...) and have algorithm. Than you go to calculations. And the same thing is with the market. I advise you people to start playing chess and analyzing it and you will be better in trading. I think the most important FTI's part is when he used questions for analyzing. Always ask yourself!!! or call someone to ask you if you have no ideas. I will follow this thread and i hope fti will provide more valuable lessons. If anyone has e-books which he mentioned please attach them. Cheers
  • #1,296
  • Feb 4, 2008 4:34pm Feb 4, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting stewrigh
Hi all,
I found this thread at the weekend and am still trying to get my head round it all. So far I have one question and would appreciate it if someone could explain how the rescue strategy differs from the Martingale.
I tried the Martingale last year and my pockets weren't deep enough - yep you guessed it I was wiped out.
Martingale, as far as I know, is re-entering with double size as the market goes against you at a fixed number of pips each step. You may vary the step size. This modifies the expected outcome. Too short steps are highly profitable, until you are killed by a strong move. Too long steps may be very "die hard", even "die impossible", but return rates become very low. This can be easily automated and simulated. I have done enough tests on it. There is no way to set risk reward to something worth. You have to choose between low returns and sudden death. Re-entering as close price action reading indicates is a completely different thing. Well, I do believe this. I am still alive....
  • #1,297
  • Feb 4, 2008 4:40pm Feb 4, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting mijamoto
.... I understand his way of trading beacuse i was for many year chess player. Every position (read this 10 times) you how to analyze(questions, PA, FA, ...) and have algorithm. Than you go to calculations. And the same thing is with the market.
Hi mijamoto, welcome aboard!

I think you're right, chess is an excellent analogy for what Fti is trying to teach us (I think ).
Thanks for the post.
  • #1,298
  • Feb 4, 2008 5:00pm Feb 4, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting leighsww
Ah, I see now. Actually, you are right! I should have been adding 30 to the next level and NOT to the reaveraged price, so our "beating this up" (as you put it, lol) is NOT without merit, because I used the wrong values for my example and it was good that I was made aware of it. So, THANK YOU for correcting my mistake on that, Northpro!

Okay, with that said, here's my new calculations, lol ...

Rescue #2:

3 x 158.70 + 9 x 159.10 = 1908.00 / 12 = 159.00 (reaveraged price)
159.10 - 159.00 = 10 pips from break even

And Northpro would be spot-on to add 9 troops (for a total of 12 troops in the battlefield/trade) for 10 pips to B/E for the scenario given (oh, and I best mention again ... because he's got deep pockets )

* edited - And please don't worry people, cuz most likely you will never have to implement Rescue #2 or thereafter, if you learn to dance well and get your timing right (lol, thought I better reassure those who probably just fainted after seeing the numbers
Leigh,
Whew! Glad we got that sorted out..LOL

All,
And yes whether you are using standard, mini, or super-mini type accounts the math is all the same but of course smaller lot sizes. Leigh is correct, rescue 3 is a tough one to swallow and I would think should rarely ever be exercised, but never say never ( I once said a safety net, under a safety net, under a safety net). If you start out with that in your preparation then it should be easier to stomach if you did actually have to execute that level...the key is patience and good dancing. I think MickD posted a link awhile back for the Vhands trading simulation, that is a great tool to work on your dancing in expedited time. You can also apply a martingale strategy within this as well.

NP
  • #1,299
  • Feb 4, 2008 6:35pm Feb 4, 2008 6:35pm
I just wanted to thank you guys for an excellent thread (FTI and Leigh). i started really following the MM strategy a couple weeks ago and have not lost a position since doing so. i am just trading PA and pivots. and i have not yet needed to go beyond a rescue 1, but i put my rescues in strategic places (where would stop orders be placed? that is where i rescue) the thing i need to work on most is not exiting my winning trades early and the attack method (adding to winners). i have trouble doing that and usually end up making more money when i have to rescue a position. anyway, i lurk this thread every day so i just wanted to share my success with some of the ideas that have been presented here.
  • #1,300
  • Feb 4, 2008 7:43pm Feb 4, 2008 7:43pm
Quoting fti
Zoran,
Re your table, the idea and concept is there.
The differences,
1. you use fixed price scales, I work with market volitility. for me the rigidity of fixed levels restricts my analysis of what the market is doing.Moreover it does not allow for optimum timimg of the critical turns. Akin to catch falling knifes and shooting rockets.

2. your progressive fibo exposures is close, but will be more effective if progression skew could relate to volitility of leg of the run. ie taking into consideration the time factor.

3. The recovery pips should not be rigid, must consider the overrall behaviour of the volitility and time factor. If the market does not behave strong into the retracements , you may want to impose stronger core attack then adding on at a constant progression on the attack to avoid drwing you average away too close to the market when it comes into your favour to ride, without giving the market any opportunity to threaten the net exposure.the key is to guesstimate the speed of the whole leg and behave towards it with caution on a low volitility move and to attack with stronger attacks on strong volitility runs. For strong vol runs, you should try not to overstay as the size exposure is bigger.

As an initial attempted model it is ok, much tweaking required. Try not to be rigid in the modelling.AND do not allow the market to go against you too far. On Balance the market should not draw your snowballing too deeply into the retracement, otherwise it may actually be a change in trend and could xcatch you snowballing into a trap. set limits based on volitility/ time sequence. If posotion became too hot too quickly , stay your MM until clearer signs appears then run a progression using the net exposure as a core base.I feel that more than 175 pips against you is too deep and too large position exposure to manage.Unless you have unlimited capital. Even with unlimited capital , you should not waste bullets.

regards
Found my answer thanks!

a
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