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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,261
  • Feb 4, 2008 3:30am Feb 4, 2008 3:30am
Quoting leighsww
<snip>
I don't preplan areas where rescues or attacks happen (I don't use fibs or any of that stuff), I strictly enter rescues and attacks when the PA shows signs of either pulling back or resuming in my direction after small pull backs.
This statement to me sums up what fti is trying to teach us(?), don't have dependencies on any analysis, use them, but act/react to the current situation, don't 'hope' what you think you see is going to happen.
Be quick on your feet and act on all situations with calculation, planning and conviction.
  • #1,262
  • Edited 5:52am Feb 4, 2008 5:28am | Edited 5:52am
Quoting Zoran
I understand the MT4 ordering system being cumbersome although I saw some benefits to it - mainly being able to have positions in both directions. I ended up developing an MM technique that revolves around it. Though your system would work better with my other account.

If you are still evaluating brokers, I'll PM a suggestion. They are a fairly big company and have offices in most regions. The owner is one of London City's richest people and he was going to float 1/3 of the company for £800M. I think there is a bit more security there if going in big.

The platform is a bit bloated and charting memory is not good, but for naked charts, it may be fine. I tend only to use MT4 for charting.

One other thing, the chart you posted here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post1828772 . Does it contain the 5sma or something else?

Here is a lady and her legs playing a tune that I believe you like (you mentioned it once in a post). Please enjoy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYSWvI4aV2w
Hi zoran,
Enjoyed the youtube much, thanks.
David did a pro job , but the lady's live finger jamming is refreshing.

The line you see on the chart is the hourly benchmark.

enclosed I think you can't get this anywhere.
is super fingerings.enjoy.
Sorry about the compression, the file's too large


regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip T_001.zip   1.4 MB | 2,961 downloads
  • #1,263
  • Feb 4, 2008 8:33am Feb 4, 2008 8:33am
Quoting fti
In fact it is all self deception, but nevertheless, it is comfortable.
In all truthfulness all attempts to analyse have stopped except that it feels like "the dance". I mean, look, we have all ANALYSED and the market must come in our favour. Its just noise for now, so lets "BITE THE BULLET" like fti taught, and hang on for dear life, there's HOPE still, to come out shining.
Thanks fti. So we must learn the moves ourselves. No analysis, indicators or anything, just the present action on a naked chart with our developing minds. Perhaps I got it right from the beginning? I spent my first year trading by looking at the market... entering when it looked right.

Sometimes it worked and other times it didn't but most ended up being a loss as I tended to get greedy and didn't take profit when I should have. I tended to go for the home runs rather that taking a base at a time. Funnily enough, I could feel it inside but didn't react.

There was a period where I started taking 30-60 pips (exiting if uncomfortable) and my account started to grow. However, without realising it at the time, my confidence would increase and my self destructive nature succumbed to a bad entry on a violent move. This would take away a good months+ work. Now with a new MM strategy and AOW mindset, this can be overcome.

So why analyse then? Why do you look at the daily? To determine the trend? Why does Leigh have fractal thingy's on her chart? I also remember you mentioning to check the action at a certain price level historically. I had been doing that for six months prior to this thread with great success. But that's still analysis, and accordingly self deception. Or is the point that it's just a guide? But of course to think otherwise is true deception - but surely most people realise that?
  • #1,264
  • Edited 9:38am Feb 4, 2008 9:19am | Edited 9:38am
Quoting Zoran
Thanks fti. So we must learn the moves ourselves. No analysis, indicators or anything, just the present action on a naked chart with our developing minds. Perhaps I got it right from the beginning? I spent my first year trading by looking at the market... entering when it looked right.

Sometimes it worked and other times it didn't but most ended up being a loss as I tended to get greedy and didn't take profit when I should have. I tended to go for the home runs rather that taking a base at a time. Funnily enough, I could feel it inside but didn't react.

There was a period where I started taking 30-60 pips (exiting if uncomfortable) and my account started to grow. However, without realising it at the time, my confidence would increase and my self destructive nature succumbed to a bad entry on a violent move. This would take away a good months+ work. Now with a new MM strategy and AOW mindset, this can be overcome.

So why analyse then? Why do you look at the daily? To determine the trend? Why does Leigh have fractal thingy's on her chart? I also remember you mentioning to check the action at a certain price level historically. I had been doing that for six months prior to this thread with great success. But that's still analysis, and accordingly self deception. Or is the point that it's just a guide? But of course to think otherwise is true deception - but surely most people realise that?
Hi zoran,
Why analyse?

Well we analyse , so that we can capitalise the event, when the market begins to move in the manner that its expected to, from our analysis.

We analyse so that, we can time the progress and skew of our exposures to reposition ourselves to improve position cost in the trend of markets.

We analyse so that, when the market tells us square in our face of what is probable , that we can to dance with the market's rhythm, to claw the $$ in.

We analyse so that, we can look intelligent to others, and that we are not dunces making good money.

We analyse so that,we can justify our risk taking as we must feel inteligent, to satisfy our own ego.

We analyse so that, we can decorate our charts and have eye candy, instead of looking at plain vanilla charts and feel unintelligent.

We analyse so that, when ego and predictive fortune telling is proven wrong, that we can keep hoping and fighting instead of regrouping and preserving capital.

We analyse so that we can deflect the blame on XYZ numbers and ABC indicators for our course of action. Then its their fault that we lost, not ours.

As the trader, you have the choice to determine your reasons for analysis.
Why do you analyse?

I hope you understand.

regards.

PS: Some traders analyse and immortalise XYZ numbers and ABC indicators so that they need not analyse.
  • #1,265
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:12am Feb 4, 2008 10:12am
Quoting fti
Hi zoran,
Why analyse?

1. Well we analyse , so that we can capitalise the event, when the market begins to move in the manner that its expected to, from our analysis.

2. We analyse so that, when the market tells us square in our face of what is probable , that we can to dance with the market's rhythm, to claw the $$ in.

Why do you analyse?
Why do I analyse? Well, those two reasons above were the primary reason. Why is that self deception? The two key words being "expected" and "probable".

Sure, once upon a time I liked to paint my charts and make them look pretty and that was not of any analytical value but more to do with discussing my analysis with others. Yes, ego and wanting to look intelligent came into it, but those things aside, I have always analysed to improve probability. Is that still self deception?
  • #1,266
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:12am Feb 4, 2008 10:12am
Quoting Zoran
Thanks fti. So we must learn the moves ourselves. No analysis, indicators or anything, just the present action on a naked chart with our developing minds.
Hi Zoran ,
After answering your last question, Let me attempt to answer your first question.

Now to say that I said, no analysis, no indicators or anything is putting too much into my mouth.
And if you read carefully thats not the case. I was explaining about the aBc number and XYZ indicators. Probably I didn't articulated well about the hat & rabbits , nor about the constellations.

Anyways, there's analysis and there's ANALYSIS.
and there indicators and there's INDICATORS.
but in trading profits & LOSSES are calculate in currencies, not otherwise.
I am sorry that I cannot explain as well as hotsforwords.com can, but I really hope that you would try to understand a little after,my having explained so very much already.

regards
  • #1,267
  • Edited 11:39am Feb 4, 2008 10:26am | Edited 11:39am
Hi Zoran,
OK,
Stand by for a rewrite of those passages for your understanding.

Hi ALL,

About an issue brought forward by some of the posters about transposing the analysis in longer term charts.
Time frame
-----------
About intraday vs short term vs long term positions
In my mind there is no such things, if you would refer my previous postings.
To me, There is however only daylight and overnight (carry) positionings.

daylight is to mean that the position is actively managed. There is no distinction between that in relations to the sun or the moon, ie time of day. So in reality , so long as the positions were actively managed, then in my books that is deemed daylight trading.
A daylight trade could last for days, so long as you are actively dancing.ie managing the exposure. It all depends on your stamina.

overnight positions is to mean for positions exposed when the trader is not actively managing. this positions can be held for days weeks or months, where suits. These are really trend rides. in capitalising on the trend runs.

If you have bad overnight positions, The worst strategy is for you to
try to exercise rescues .
All I can say is GOOD LUCK because to attempt to rescues on overnight positions would require you to snowball your positions, and not managinf them closely would put those snowballed possitions to considerable risk if we were wrong in our expectations.
You will need Luck very much, as you are not so different from gambling with calculated risk, nevertheless it is still gambling. And normally, to operate in this mode, it would require that the trader have pre-concieved view of where the markets are heading and what the longer trends should be.

When a trader's short term trend position fails and incur losses, then he will carry the into the long term perspective and believe that it should be right to recover his losses. If this positions against the long attempt fails then the trader will find for himself all sorts of analitical excuses to maintain the exposure of longer time frame to hope for a recovery When all else fails , then the blame would be that the market is illogical and manipulated by the biggest boys.

In the course of his mindset during this struggle, the trader would use predictive stance of using ABC, XYZ indicators and divergence, convergence and crossings of lines and indicators as excuses to maintain that is position would ultimately be correct.
All the mentioned lines and indicators would be of help to him in such an endeavor.
He may Further introduce newer indicators , like hat and rabbits, my magic bullet, or when satarn is crossing uranus, this and that , as well as any collection of analysis, which can help him justify to hold to his position exposure and composure. Also he may resort to coining new excuses of Bigger Dance Steps, The Big Boys dance, Dancing with the big Bands or Sleep dancing just to justify to holding that it is in line with what fti taught.

All these desperation mindsets are In fact it is all self deception, but nevertheless, it is comfortable to the trader for peace of mind.
In all truthfulness all attempts to analyse have stopped except that it feels like "the dance".But in reality there is no dancing except for trading in hope. Look, there is the justification that he hasl ANALYSED the situation (while holding on to a loss situation) and the believe that the market must come in his favour. He would justify that the loss was due to just noise for now, so with that excuse he concludes that he should "BITE THE BULLET" like fti taught ( which is to twist fti's doctrines), and hang on to the positions for dear life, believing that there's HOPE still, to come out shining, although the markets movement have proved otherwise.

Yes we like to trade short term positions, if thats not working ,traders tends to convert them to long term positions. and if thats no good still, they would tend to carry on while fully indulging in hope of recovery. The mindset is "Look I've lots of $$. Anyways what goes up must come down and vice versa."

Then there comes along rogue traders and blaming fti's for teachings of how to impliment average positions.
Actually the term is professionally known as "dollar cost averaging" and fund managers who are losing customers monies always uses this to rationalise their losses.

Isn't this what fti's presenting?

fti: No definately not , like I have always presented, rigidity of MM and of MO can lead for distructive mindset, that can in fact disorientated the trader to the risk of ruin. Having a longer term strategy only increases the risk that the trader will snowball the risk without carefully and nimbly managing it. It has always been my policy that overnight positions be only allowed to be a fraction of the daylight trading position. if snowballing risk is to be implimented on longer term positions,(ie overnight positions) then that, is a total contridiction of my doctrine and MO.

regards


regards
  • #1,268
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:35am Feb 4, 2008 10:35am
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran ,
After answering your last question, Let me attempt to answer your first question.

Now to say that I said, no analysis, no indicators or anything is putting too much into my mouth.
And if you read carefully thats not the case. I was explaining about the aBc number and XYZ indicators. Probably I didn't articulated well about the hat & rabbits , nor about the constellations.

Anyways, there's analysis and there's ANALYSIS.
and there indicators and there's INDICATORS.
but in trading profits & LOSSES are calculate in currencies, not otherwise.
I am sorry that I cannot explain as well as hotsforwords.com can, but I really hope that you would try to understand a little after,my having explained so very much already.

regards
fti, I think you are clear in a lot of ways, although the problem being that you tend to contradict yourself (from my understanding anyway), so there is some confusion. I'm not sure whether anyone else feels the same or whether it's just me.

To overcome my confusion, I have attempted to extract what you, yourself use to analyse the market and perhaps I can guage from there.

So your ladies, are they just price patterns and market action? Shadows, legs, coils, etc... do they map to wedges, flags, triangles, rounding tops and bottoms, broadening patterns, etc? Are they compound candle formations? Do they work or am I on the wrong track?
  • #1,269
  • Feb 4, 2008 11:11am Feb 4, 2008 11:11am
Quoting fti
Hi zoran,
Enjoyed the youtube much, thanks.
David did a pro job , but the lady's live finger jamming is refreshing.

The line you see on the chart is the hourly benchmark.

enclosed I think you can't get this anywhere.
is super fingerings.enjoy.
Sorry about the compression, the file's too large


regards
Nice song. Thank you, fti.
  • #1,270
  • Edited 11:43am Feb 4, 2008 11:28am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting Zoran
fti, I think you are clear in a lot of ways, although the problem being that you tend to contradict yourself
Zoran,
Please quote where I have contradicted myself for discussion.

regards.
  • #1,271
  • Feb 4, 2008 11:57am Feb 4, 2008 11:57am
fti, it is now clear to me what you were talking about. I read that whilst listening to your tune and a picture of you in a cowboy suit appeared to mind!

OK, there is no confusion and I have no issue with what you are now saying. I misunderstood your point and I have already parked my "longer term" trading. As mentioned, I thought it inappropriate to continue with the discussion as my focus was on your method and I know it is based on intraday trading that may slip into another day or perhaps two.

Lets leave it at this:

I say "This is not necessarily any more profitable than intraday as position sizes are adjusted accordingly"
You say "It has always been my policy that overnight positions be only allowed to be a fraction of the daylight trading position."
  • #1,272
  • Feb 4, 2008 12:06pm Feb 4, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting Zoran
fti, I think you are clear in a lot of ways, although the problem being that you tend to contradict yourself (from my understanding anyway), so there is some confusion. I'm not sure whether anyone else feels the same or whether it's just me.

To overcome my confusion, I have attempted to extract what you, yourself use to analyse the market and perhaps I can guage from there.

So your ladies, are they just price patterns and market action? Shadows, legs, coils, etc... do they map to wedges, flags, triangles, rounding tops and bottoms, broadening patterns, etc? Are they compound candle formations? Do they work or am I on the wrong track?
Hi, Zoran.

Got confused, right?

fti said no analysis based on indicators, fractacals, fabs whatever. IMHO, that is because these analysis tools tend to have some side-effects on your mind. The side effects are rationazation of the charts i.e. you will wear a colored glass to see the picture. The information will be filtered by your analysis(acctually your belief).

Let's imagine. From the same chart, a trader with a position will see the different thing and get differenet conclustion from another trader withou a position or a opposite-direction position.

Can you tell a wave that is a wave 2 or that is a wave A before hand? No way to tell before wave 3 formed or wave C(note that not wave B).

Here are the two charts EUR/USD daily, and EUR/USD 15 minutes. By looking at daily chart, I can make decision to short E/U today, but the problem is what price and when to short today? Any indicators can tell me the answer?

Fabs? Yes, today' E/U highest price is very close to 31.8% retracement of last friday's high low. But can you gurantee this before hand and place a limit order there? Why not 50%, or 68.2%? That is a coincidence, agree?

I think the only solution to these problems are MM. Wrong timing, rescue if you have more ammunition. Wrong direction, maybe cut loss, or averaging if your wrong position is very very light, the added positions only added controlled risk, or you close the bad positions after rebound.

Maybe I am wrong, dear fti, your comment please.

David
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU0205 DAILY.JPG Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU0205 15Min.JPG Size: 110 KB
  • #1,273
  • Feb 4, 2008 12:12pm Feb 4, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting leighsww
Northpro ... this is not a rescue "sequence". It's just a table of calculations for people to get an idea of how many troops are needed to rescue scout if they want to be "X" amount of pips away from break even.

I'm just giving examples of calculations that they need to make to figure out at what pip amount they can afford to be away from break even and depending on their account size, how many rescue troops they will have to expose in order to be those many "X" amount of pips away from break even.

Maybe I am misunderstanding what you mean regarding "sequence"?
Leighs,

No problem, I should have been more clear in my statement. I do realize what you are saying and the example you were giving, just wanted clarification that the 30 pip was just that, an example. We are on the same page.

Quote
I don't preplan areas where rescues or attacks happen (I don't use fibs or any of that stuff), I strictly enter rescues and attacks when the PA shows signs of either pulling back or resuming in my direction after small pull backs.
When I say fibs, I don't mean fibs on the chart, I mean the fib progression (1,1,2,3,5,8...) compounded for rescue levels when martingaling.. My charts are as naked as yours and the PA is the dictating method of entry/exit.

From what I see,you martingale 1,2,4,8...Using your 30pip example:
I do it 1,2,3,5...but compounding(x)
I do it:
Rescue 1: 1 scout+2=3(total 3)...-30 pips displaced 10 pips to B/E
Rescue 2: 3x3=9(total 12)...another -30 pips (-120combined) 10pips to B/E
Rescue 3: 12x5=60(total 72)..another -30pips(-480combined) 7pips to B/E.


Ok, I know what your thinking on the 3rd rescue..me too actually, but believe it or not..I plan my MM around this, the point being if it gets this bad I want to be extremely aggressive and just get out NOW to stay below my max % exposure....sorry for the full lot example, that's just what I use. I have yet to have gone past the 2nd rescue but am prepared to go to the 3rd with spare for extensions (and then back to PA school). I can completely agree with you that you want to get out of the rescue asap, as this can be costly on the troop dispatching. This example may be extreme with 30+30+30 which I don't think it would really occur in this manner on the 5min TF, but is just an example of how things can progress and being prepared from the start can save your bacon. At the end of the day the rescue is similar in objective and naked charts are the same, being nimble yet aggressive when needed.

Thanks again.
NP
  • #1,274
  • Feb 4, 2008 12:18pm Feb 4, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting Zoran
Why does Leigh have fractal thingy's on her chart?
fti doesn't use fractals, that's my own thingy and I do not use it to predict anything, I just use it to see more clearly the tops and bottoms of the candlesticks' movements.

The PA is what dictates to me when to buy or sell.

The message I got from fti's teachings/posts, is that when indicators are used to "predict" where the market may be going, or they influence our decisions about how to dance, or they make the calls on when to buy or sell, is when indicators become more destructive than useful/helpful.

Anyway, that's what I interpreted the "fallacy" to mean ... when TA influences/dictates our judgments and decisions, thus we rely on them instead of relying on ourselves with using the PA to guide our dance and conduct and carry out our missions.
  • #1,275
  • Feb 4, 2008 12:24pm Feb 4, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting Zoran
.

So your ladies, are they just price patterns and market action? Shadows, legs, coils, etc... do they map to wedges, flags, triangles, rounding tops and bottoms, broadening patterns, etc? Are they compound candle formations? Do they work or am I on the wrong track?
As I await to discover my contradictions, I will answer this question of yours.

Yes they are compounded variations of the bar chart and candlebar patterns.
The analysis takes into account the time, volatility and price bar relationships, which are normally not considered by many textbook analyst. The differing discriptions of the change in the volatility and behavioral extensions prompts to the possible robustness of the existing pattern and its possible mutations to other patterns.

If you like, he's one example.
In the formation of a downward pointing flag,
what is the signifivcance of aan outside bar key reversal signify, when that happens at the tip turn of the flag?
What is the robustness of the pattern when such is detected?
What is the possibility that what you are looking at is not a downward pointing flag but a pre-curser to another formation?
Is the market still to be considered bearish?
What is the significance of the key reversal bar to the whole pattern?
Is it continuation pattern or is it a reversal pattern?
Again what is the significance if the outside key reversal on a downward pointing flag, if the bar that marked the support was a short bar in relations to the key reversal?
Is this reversal or continuation?

This is what I call analysis.
So all you may see is a downward pointing flag , right?
But have you considered that after you have concluded of the pattern formed , that it may mutate over time and revert to some other formation instead?
This is only at basic levels of pattern formations, there's lots more where that comes from. Therefore my dealing room, read of the shape and weighting of the compound formations.

I hope this highlights that you must go indepth study of the possible formations, not only the classic patterns that occurs. Incidentally, are you aware of how you determine if your patterns have been invalidated? I had in much earlier posting tried to highlight this issue for your education. Seems you didn't understand.

regards
  • #1,276
  • Edited 12:37pm Feb 4, 2008 12:27pm | Edited 12:37pm
Quoting Green_David
Hi, Zoran.

Got confused, right?

fti said no analysis based on indicators, fractacals, fabs whatever. IMHO, that is because these analysis tools tend to have some side-effects on your mind. The side effects are rationazation of the charts i.e. you will wear a colored glass to see the picture. The information will be filtered by your analysis(acctually your belief).
David, I understand that much. But there must be some analysis to determine when to enter, exit, add, rescue, etc.... - based on market action. But my question is what determines that? Price patterns, candles or just plain old gut? Do we just jump into the deep end and make it up ourselves?

fti, how about I point out any future contradiction that I interpret. Remember, it is only my perception and may just be a misunderstanding. The biggest one being, do we analyse or not? On the one hand you imply that we do but then I interpreted that if we do, we deceive ourselves. That has been cleared up. As for any other contradictions, the boat may have left on those and going through this thread to point any out may not be a good use of my time. I may just discover that it is again, just a misunderstanding. I do intend to review the whole thread again shortly (when time permits) so I may need some more clarification.
  • #1,277
  • Feb 4, 2008 12:47pm Feb 4, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting fti
As I await to discover my contradictions, I will answer this question of yours.

Yes they are compounded variations of the bar chart and candlebar patterns.
The analysis takes into account the time, volatility and price bar relationships, which are normally not considered by many textbook analyst. The differing discriptions of the change in the volatility and behavioral extensions prompts to the possible robustness of the existing pattern and its possible mutations to other patterns.

regards
Yes, that is!

And Dear Zoran,

Quote
David, I understand that much. But there must be some analysis to determine when to enter, exit, add, rescue, etc.... - based on market action. But my question is what determines that? Price patterns, candles or just plain old gut? Do we just jump into the deep end and make it up ourselves?

I think the answer is clear by this fti's post no.323. That is price patterns and related price factors such volitility,time, relationship, structure as fti said , and REAL TIME price patterns I think.

BTW, maybe my little experience may also help you. The price reactions to economic data also tell something. Last Friday, NFP is very bad, it is negative and the worst in 4 years, EUR should have responded with increase. But what happenmed? It did increase right after anouncement, however it could not sustain and went sharply 45 mininutes later. Why?

Similiar thing happened on 5 October, on that day, NFP is a quite good release for USD, but EUR price drop didn't hold, and what happened after that, you may see the chart your self.
  • #1,278
  • Edited 1:03pm Feb 4, 2008 12:53pm | Edited 1:03pm
@ David & leighsww,

Thanks, basically, I think you've got the message, right.

The analysis is not a major issue, in so far as the Zoran is concerned. I am most worried for is experiment to induce the spiral position sizing into daily analysis. From professional perspective, I highly discourage that, as the risk to ruin is very high, due to non close monitoring of market possibilities.

regards

Further if such is insisted, I recommend very very deep pockets, and probably balls of titanium, to survive the stress. LOL
  • #1,279
  • Feb 4, 2008 12:55pm Feb 4, 2008 12:55pm
BUT, here is an example

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=882

You mention

"About Elliot,Please be aware that I use the elliot studies true to Elliots 1st published findings as in the compiled working papers of "The major works of R.N Elliot"

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=897

You mention

"Yes, there are many ways to mutate Elliots work, I stay to his original basics as My intent of its use is neither to sell books nor services."

In Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=902

I ask whether his original workings are worth reading... as you indicated that you use it. You then say

"Worth reading? Yes for general knowledge but NO for usable value."

Contradiction

You mention that you use elliot (is 1st post) but then suggest there is no usable value. What have I misunderstood? Why do you use it if there is no value?

PS. See they take too much time to find...
  • #1,280
  • Feb 4, 2008 1:01pm Feb 4, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting Green_David
Last Friday, NFP is very bad, it is negative and the worst in 4 years, EUR should have responded with increase. But what happenmed?
I have seen enough news announcement go in the opposite direction to perception that I don't tend to trade them. I'll stay well clear unless in a comfortable position already.
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