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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #281
  • Feb 1, 2008 1:27pm Feb 1, 2008 1:27pm
Jd..
I think your pm was answered more clearly with my previous post...
.... next short would be around 2.1290/2.1320 if new valley forms. This area is near price pivot (or resistance if you will - 2.1230), so we may see a strong bounce and perhaps I would close most of my position there..
hope this helps..
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  • #282
  • Feb 1, 2008 4:09pm Feb 1, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting raczekfx
Hi bogus,
short answer is no...
I'm a PA trader where S/R plays a major role, so my charts look more like the one below. I take aggressive possition on touches of s/r, PBs, beovbs/buovbs, fibs and confluence. P & V only complements my trading so I may add on a break of pick and/or valley.... Arrow in squares would be my initial positions.
hope this helps
Hi raczekfx, when did you draw the horizontal at 2.1591 in your post # 280 chart.

Do you ever exchange ideas with Akuma99 about your trading methods?

Lou
  • #283
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:52pm Feb 1, 2008 7:52pm
Quoting Lou
Hi raczekfx, when did you draw the horizontal at 2.1591 in your post # 280 chart.

Do you ever exchange ideas with Akuma99 about your trading methods?

Lou
Hey Lou,

top one on Jan 17, the lowest on Jan 23, the one at 2.1591 on Jan22.
no, I never read Akumas methods.... . I've only been looking at P & V and J16 chart threads recently. The others haven't caught my interest for a quite while...

r
  • #284
  • Feb 2, 2008 2:24pm Feb 2, 2008 2:24pm
Thanks, it does.
Quoting raczekfx
Hi bogus,
short answer is no...
I'm a PA trader where S/R plays a major role, so my charts look more like the one below. I take aggressive possition on touches of s/r, PBs, beovbs/buovbs, fibs and confluence. P & V only complements my trading so I may add on a break of pick and/or valley.... Arrow in squares would be my initial positions.
hope this helps
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #285
  • Feb 3, 2008 9:25am Feb 3, 2008 9:25am
Kharvell, thanks for starting this great thread - has had me thinking all weekend and looking forward to using this strategy.

Raczekfx, regarding your peaks and valleys trades,are you placing entries solely on the break of the peak or valley as in your line charts or using the relevant bar high or low?
  • #286
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:36am Feb 3, 2008 11:36am
Hey guys,

Raczekfx, nice trading man! I especially like that you are using S/R levels. Keep posting and keep up the good work.

Trumpcard, thanks for stopping by and many pips to you.

I'm just stopping in here briefly. I found another thread that uses very similar methodology with a built in trend filter. It's quite similar to what we are using here, but just thought I'd put it here since it is relevant and another way at looking at the same thing. The user "ducks" posted it and credit will go to Leslie Hampton who wrote it.

Here's a link:

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...04&postcount=3


Best of luck,

Kevin
  • #287
  • Feb 3, 2008 3:45pm Feb 3, 2008 3:45pm
Hello Kevin,

When you state that ducks methods have a built in trend filter you are still talking about price, right? As in the example for a long trade when price breaks the ' 2 ' level at number ' 4 ' . Or are you referring to something else?

Lou
  • #288
  • Feb 3, 2008 4:23pm Feb 3, 2008 4:23pm
Quoting Lou
Hello Kevin,

When you state that ducks methods have a built in trend filter you are still talking about price, right? As in the example for a long trade when price breaks the ' 2 ' level at number ' 4 ' . Or are you referring to something else?

Lou
Hey Lou,

Yes, I am still talking about price. But more so the fact that with the 1-2-3-4 method, you wait for a higher/lower peak/valley. The condition that wave # 3 must be a higher high or lower low than wave #1 basically entails that there is a trend in the given direction, and a break of 2, which is what we normally do, makes for a good entry. Make sense?

Best of luck,

Kevin

PS ENJOY the superbowl everyone!!! GO GIANTS
  • #289
  • Feb 3, 2008 4:38pm Feb 3, 2008 4:38pm
Kevin, please check this out:

So isthe KEY price action at point 3 ?

For example:

In a long situation price has bounced short off of point 2. BUT at point 3 price has not dipped back into point 1 's territory. As price moves off of point 3 in a long direction ... is this the filter? So then when price crosses the point 2 level at point 4 the trade has a better chance of success?

?
  • #290
  • Edited 5:13pm Feb 3, 2008 5:00pm | Edited 5:13pm
Closed my N/U long for 70 pips or so.

Price was retreating off of an upper channel ascending trend line going back to Nov 5 in the area from 7850 to currently 7950 on the Daily. Price has hit this area 3 times and retreated since Nov 5, some may even say since October. Price is reatreating today. 3 hr chart.

It is an interesting dilemma. Fundies say the commodity pairs should start moving vs USD. But technically speaking that rising channel trendline has caused price to reverse time and again. Will look at getting back in if that trendline breaks.

Lou
  • #291
  • Feb 3, 2008 8:04pm Feb 3, 2008 8:04pm
anyone taking the euro short now using this method?
  • #292
  • Feb 3, 2008 8:36pm Feb 3, 2008 8:36pm
  •  w_z
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: hand over them pips | 61 Posts
Quoting Trumpcard
anyone taking the euro short now using this method?
I'm shorting at 4782
  • #293
  • Edited 9:43pm Feb 3, 2008 9:41pm | Edited 9:43pm
Here are my orders. I am still long NZD/USD with 2 positions. By the looks of my daily chart shown below, resistance has been broken assuming things stay the same. I believe they will stay the same as I believe there will be a weaker dollar still yet.

I've also got a long AUD/USD and long AUD/JPY position.
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  • #294
  • Feb 3, 2008 10:46pm Feb 3, 2008 10:46pm
I like the long A/U position. Appears to avoid my problems with the N/U. Above.
  • #295
  • Feb 4, 2008 3:45pm Feb 4, 2008 3:45pm
Take a look at the poll results for Trading Naked above... Fibonacci ratio.

Moving more and more towards trading naked.

But , Can I leave my hat on?
  • #296
  • Feb 4, 2008 7:28pm Feb 4, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting Lou
Take a look at the poll results for Trading Naked above... Fibonacci ratio.

Moving more and more towards trading naked.

But , Can I leave my hat on?
Hey Lou,

Fib's are overrated. And please feel free to use your hat as you see fit!

Looks like you may have been right about that strong resistance holding for NZD/USD. There is a lot of important news tonight for AUD and some for NZD, so I've tightened my stops and am planning for the worst. With my luck, I'll probably get whipsawed out, but better a small loss than a big one.

My orders and such are below. If both of my stops are hit on NZD/USD, I'll probably walk out with around 70 pips or so like you.

Pairs I hope to enter tomorrow are Long AUD/USD (again), Long AUD/JPY (again), and Short EUR/AUD (again). These of course all assuming we stay in the direction which I believe they will head. But then again, a lot of news especially with AUD coming out in the next hour or so.

Regards,

Kevin
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  • #297
  • Feb 4, 2008 9:56pm Feb 4, 2008 9:56pm
A/U Who the heck is selling? I thought a rate increase would spur buying.
  • #298
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:01pm Feb 4, 2008 10:01pm
  •  w_z
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: hand over them pips | 61 Posts
oh wow did i get whipped by the aussie....god damn 30 pip spreads stopped me out
  • #299
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:16pm Feb 4, 2008 10:16pm
Quoting Lou
A/U Who the heck is selling? I thought a rate increase would spur buying.
Lol 60 pips in 5 minutes (shown below) I survived by 25 or so pips

Quote
oh wow did i get whipped by the aussie....god damn 30 pip spreads stopped me out

Tough luck wz. Do you use Oanda as well? I saw those guys tried that funny business and was glad I was already in. It may not be a bad idea to try again since they bumped up their interest by .25%.
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  • #300
  • Feb 4, 2008 10:18pm Feb 4, 2008 10:18pm
Quoting w_z
oh wow did i get whipped by the aussie....god damn 30 pip spreads stopped me out
not sure why you're stopped out (unless you're scalping...), but we just had a break out few days ago at .9016, so reasonable stop would be below that number. Some... added more on retest of that ppz as Seeking would say 'price moved back to pick up grandma'. Some would expect price to stall around .9100 as price printed that low on nov.1/2007...
happy trading...
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